Trotter Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 A couple of weeks ago I mentioned in the Flat Racing thread that I'd noticed a marked bias for low draws in the five furlong races at Southwell If you're not a fan of the AW you might not know that the 5F track at Southwell is run from a chute and is the only straight 5F on the AW tracks which makes track form more relevant Moreover the stall are placed up against the near rail with the low draws in the middle of the track and the high draws up against the near side rail My theory is that the place to be is the centre of the track .......the fibresand appears to gather towards the rails as the course is harrowed. Even on te round course you'll see horses heading for the centre of the track off the final bend.......sometimes they stick to the inside (or far side from the TV camera) rail but they never come over to the near side. So the sand is deeper there That's the logic behind the draw bias....... Quite a lot of interest and Richard has suggest a separate thread just for discussion of these races Next one on Sunday ! (Of course now everybody will be backing the low drawn horses and the edge will disappear ......but this is something I've noticed over several years and I think the big advantage comes and goes. I'm guessing that every now and then they'll give the track a right good 'seeing to' and the surface will be evened out until gradually over a few meetings the fibresand begins to gather up against the rails again. ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell strike while the irons hot ......but def advantage to bottom 4 at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell well......sunday you've got diamondsinthesky (4) won a weak maiden lto ........now in hcap.....doesn't look very well weighted and not particuly speedy ?..........harwoods star (2) ...hasn't run for 2 monthes and doesn't look a sprinter and also no course form so overall looks very weak ........that leaves divertimenti (1)......and steel city boy (3)........divertimenti will be popular based on todays run if turning out but carried 8 st whereas has to shoulder 9st 5 some 19 pounds higher than today .....divertimenti beat steel city boy by 1 and a quarter lengths back a few weeks ago over c/d and they meet on very similar terms if you adjust the weights ......only diff is steel city boy has a much better jockey than ann stokell (1%)......this time Charlie Bennett (29%).......so for me im hoping given that divertimenti went close and steel city boy was behind there will be a nice ew price on steel city boy ??........negative for steel city boy is hes getting on a bit and hasn't won since beginning of 2013.....but looked to be back in some sort of form and jockey choice eyecatching as ann stokell normally rides herself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dund0n Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I've been following all of the posts on this subject as well and there definitely looks to be some sort of bias, especially when you look at the recent history. I was with you on Divertimenti yesterday Trotter, and with a better start he surely would've gone closer than 4th. Probably would've run into the money. Dependent on the price and if he runs I think I'll be sticking with him on Sunday with the race looking a much weaker contest and with him having what looks to be the best draw in 1. I'll be following this thread with interest to see if the trend continues so best of luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Hi all, Steel City Boy early price of 16/1 for tomorrow's 5f race. Just watched his last few races however and had no excuses, got into good enough positions just simply got outpaced and was treading water in the final stages. Divertimenti should be there abouts I would think, and as Dund0n said with a better start last time out a top 3 finish looked on the cards. Rob Hornby in the saddle tomorrow whom I know very little about if anyone can shed some light? Best price Divertimenti 5/1 at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell steel city boy 16/1!!.....im in !!.......i think divertimenti will be one to beat in.low draws and 5/1 looks cracking !! but 16/1 ?....thats just silly ....i think jockey crap thats why steel city boy hasnt really shown much ...much better one on now so no excuses ....lowest mark of 45 .... steel city boy 5pts ew 16/1 paddyp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Interesting draw stuff boys and girls,stall 3 seems to be the place to be in this one..However one Im interested in is Tolly Mcguiness in the 8 box..14-1 seems good value,will be more in morning.Ran here just 3 days go over 5f and didnt seem to mind the surface,just ran out of steam.Interestingly the favourite in this Diamondsinthesky was also in that race finishing about 3 lengths ahead of Tolly Mcguiness,Tolly Mcguiness gets a bit of a weight pull also ,with claimer around 9-10 pound weight pull should see it get closer,also this is hands and heels race which my help tolly.in december they both faced up at wolves over 5f,and tolly mccguiness beat the fav and again has a 9-10 pound weight pull.One to watch in live market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Although I've picked Divertimenti a couple of times recently I do have some doubts about him ! Firstly I think he's handicapped to the hilt of his current ability which is why he keeps getting beaten by a length or so. If he was 3lbs lower he might win those races Secondly this business of dwelling in the stalls.......that's a really bad habit. As it happens a couple of my recent selections in these races have dwelt at the start then finished like trains to get placed but I don't think it's ideal over this CD. To start you're giving up the advantage of the low draw because the horses that are more quickly away can take up pole position on the golden highway of the track. And with kickback it's not best to be behind horses. I prefer a front runner here not a horse that's giving away 3 lengths at the start Thirdly I'm not sure that stall 1 is best for old Divertimenti as he has a habit of running to his left and with no horse on his outside to keep him straight he can veer over to the far rail which is just as bad as being high drawn on the near rail. I think I'd rather see him in stalls 2 or 3 with a horse or two on his outside to stop him veering over. This is another problem with being slowly away.....like last time the horse on his outside was no longer there, he was in front of him and Divertimenti had to go left to get round him Having said all that this is a much worse race than the last couple in which he's only been beaten a length or so I think he's the obvious candidate but I'm tempted to look for something else..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Hi all' date=' Steel City Boy early price of 16/1 for tomorrow's 5f race. Just watched his last few races however and had no excuses, got into good enough positions just simply got outpaced and was treading water in the final stages. Divertimenti should be there abouts I would think, and as Dund0n said with a better start last time out a top 3 finish looked on the cards. Rob Hornby in the saddle tomorrow whom I know very little about if anyone can shed some light? Best price Divertimenti 5/1 at the moment.[/quote'] Rob Hornby's one of the top 3 jockeys in this race,IMO, although winning over minimum distance could be a big task for some of these inexperienced apprentices. The only one to have done it since the start of 2014 is Steel City Boy's rider, Charlie Bennett, who's 1 in 1 over the trip. If you were wondering, I consider Bennett to be the most accomplished jockey in this field. Hector Crouch would be my choice for 2nd best jock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell steel city boy 16/1!!.....im in !!.......i think divertimenti will be one to beat in.low draws and 5/1 looks cracking !! but 16/1 ?....thats just silly ....i think jockey crap thats why steel city boy hasnt really shown much ...much better one on now so no excuses ....lowest mark of 45 .... steel city boy 5pts ew 16/1 paddyp. Me and my mate selected him earlier too. I backed Diamondsinthesky last time out when he was beaten by around a neck here and he may go better with a more experienced jockey on board but as top weight with no victory under his belt the 7/2 is unappealing. In the last 5f race here I backed Lucky Times over Divertimenti because I felt the latter was handicapped with a chance to place rather then win and I have the same concerns today like Trotter. Harwoods Star is dropping way back in trip and is an unknown on this surface so again the price is unappealing. That leaves Steel City Boy at 16/1 which looks a tasty price with a Bennett booked and a nice mark to race off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Steel City Boy is now best price 10s........8s with Ladbrokes Divertimenti 9/2 early prices Diamondsinthesky is early favourite at 3s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I'm playing safe and giving Divertimenti a last chance.......here's my post in the Nap competition.... "12.40 Sou - Divertimenti - win at 9/2 bog bet365 5F sprint handicap at Southwell This must be one the worst class 6 handicaps ever run with the top weight rated just 53 I've got my doubts about Divertimenti (see Southwell thread for details !) but he's been placed in better races the last few times and this looks a good opportunity to get a win There's a few provisos.......he's got to get out of the stalls on terms and not drift over to the far rail but I'm giving him one last chance in a shocker of a race. " Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Some brief profiles for the horses in the first four stalls (in keeping with the flavour of this thread i.e. draw bias for 5F @ Southwell) PROFILES. (first four stalls) 1. Divertimenti Runs - 134 races with 14 wins (24 places) A.W. - 71 races with 6 wins (13 places) Southwell runs - 18 races with 1 win (6 places) - 3 wins from 14 races at Lingfield and 2 wins from 31 races at Wolverhampton. Distance (5F) - 36 races with 3 wins (8 places) Class (6) - 60 races with 8 wins (12 places) Handicap - 115 races with 11 wins (18 places) Won once in 2014 (turf) and 3 times in 2013 (one of those wins was here at Southwell). Age may be against him (11Yo) and best A.W. form is at Lingfield. 2. Harwoods Star Runs - 16 races with 0 wins (4 places) A.W. 5 races with 0 wins (1 place) Southwell runs - 0 runs - 1 place from 2 at Lingfield and 0 wins from 3 at Kempton. Distance (5F) - 0 runs - Primarily tried at 7F or more Class (6) - 6 races with 0 wins (2 places) Handicap - 9 races with 0 wins (3 places) First time at 5F and at Southwell. Seems to be a difficult horse to figure out, but being from the Sadler's Wells line then todays disatnce may be far too short. 3. Steel City Boy Runs - 140 races with 10 wins (26 places) A.W. - 87 races with 8 wins (16 places) Southwell runs - 29 races with 2 wins (7 places) Distance (5F) - 74 races with 7 wins (12 places) Class (6) - 64 races with 5 wins (15 places) Handicap - 128 races with 9 wins (24 places) Another where age may be a concern (12Yo). was behind Divertimenti last time out out when carrying 2lb less, now carrying 6lbs less and should get closer. 4. Diamondsinthesky Runs - 14 races with 0 wins (5 places) A.W. - 10 races with 0 wins (5 places) Southwell runs - 5 races with 0 wins (4 places) Distance (5F) - 11 races with 0 wins (4 places) Class (6) - 8 races with 0 wins (4 places) Handicap - 7 races with 0 wins (1 place) 2nd place on 4 occasions here at Southwell and 3rd in a 7 runner race here at Southwell. Was ridden by a 7lb claimer when 2nd placed (3 times) and 3rd placed. Beaten by a short head last time out in an apprentice maiden. Seems to find one or two better in her races but looks capable of placing here at Southwell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Track info for Southwell....... http://southwellraces.blogspot.co.uk/ If you look at the Twitter posts on the left hand side they update on track works I see that the track has been worked overnight before todays meeting ! Does that mean the draw bias won't be as apparent now until they've had a couple more meetings ? be interesting to see The last time they reported that the track was worked overnight was prior to the 27th December meeting. That day the only 5F race was a 3 runner affair where the highest drawn horse won, but he was a 2/9 F and presumably would have won wherever he was drawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Glad I took 16/1 ew last night on Steel City Boy which is as short as 15/2. Money has also come for new favourite Harwoods Star (7/2, 3/1) which is making his debut for new yard Stuart Williams, could be significant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Glad I took 16/1 ew last night on Steel City Boy which is as short as 15/2. Money has also come for new favourite Harwoods Star (7/2, 3/1) which is making his debut for new yard Stuart Williams, could be significant? Now out to 18.5 on Betfair, not the gamble it looked earlier in the morning. Harwoods Star very strong in the betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Places at 10/1, 10/1 and now 16/1 but no wins. :wall Market told the story there and Harwoods Star wins easily. Draw bias still very much there with the winner in stall 2, second in 3, third in 1 and fourth in 4? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Result 1st 3 Harwoods Star (IRE) 7/4 f 2nd 10 Steel City Boy (IRE) 16/1 3rd 4 Divertimenti (IRE) 10/3 Stalls 1,2,3 fill the first 3 places The winner was massively backed but it had to be 'in the know' money........no normal punter is going to back a long term maiden who's been running at 8 and 10 furlongs on his first ever run at 5 furlongs ! He'd never run at 6F never mind 5F So given that we were never going to consider the winner our main two selections came out on top ! (well, that's one way of looking at it !) well done to everyone who went EW on Steel City Boy.........:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell No 5F race at the next meeting on Tuesday but there are 3 scheduled for the Thursday meeting....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dund0n Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell I stuck with Divertimenti and there's no excuse for that run! Broke fine, kept straight enough and there looked to be no obvious problems with the run. He just wasn't good enough. Surely needs a bit of help from handicapper now. Nice one to those of you on Steel City Boy - especially if taking the 16/1 from last night! Couldn't have had asked for a much better race really to show the draw bias. Lets hope Thursday throws up similar results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Really funny place the AW, some don't like it but good things can be found for those that dig deep enough, some races can be great wee puzzles that can also be solved, today was very unlucky for the SCB backers but no harm lost if you played safe and went EW Some cracking reading above and people should NEVER forget, its us and them. We always have next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Bad News.......the Racing Post has now referred to the draw bias in it's analysis of todays race...... "A moderate 46-55 handicap to start and the bias towards those drawn low on the straight track continues".......and "Saved My Bacon, in first-time cheekpieces, showed decent speed for a long way and wasn´t disgraced considering she started from the dreaded stands´ rail draw. She remains unexposed" Obviously as more punters become aware of this the odds will just reflect the bias........to be honest I thought that happened today with, I think, the first 3 in the betting being in stalls 1,2 and 4.....with bigger prices on some horses who had run well here recently (Very First Blade and Saved My Bacon) which probably should have been much shorter on form but were drawn high Might be that the 'value' has now gone and will just be factored in to the prices So at some point you have to start considering that 20/1 shot in stall 7 which would be 4/1 if it was in stall 3 ! There's always an opportunity.........:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell 3 races thurs ...got to mske a killin before the gravy train departs!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell Excellent read lads although i must admit i'm shocked by the attention a poor race at Southwell has produced. Keep it up you AW merchants:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell races thurs aren't brill ....two 6 runners and a 9 runner hcap....hers my take 1250 south thursday arctic lynx 50 draw 4 shawkatango 49 draw 5 haadeeth 48 draw 6 monsieur Jamie 46 draw 2 with only six runers the form horses are drawn high ,,,lowest of those is arctic lynx drawn 4 .......difficult race to weigh up as shawkatango has surface form and effectively races off 62 with the claim which makes him the horse to beat .....looks very well hcapped .........arctic lynxs form is at ling and if it was there then would prob be very difficult to beat but with no southwell form ...big questions ......but very capable ..........now the fly in the ointment is monsieur Jamie stall 2 .........has done nothing recently but if you go back to southwell this time last year he was placing off 77 now runs off 69 ......has collateral formlines with shawkatango based on that ......didn't show a lot last time here at southwell but was drawn 10 .....so given this thread a return to stall two could be the making of him possibly .......very hard race to weigh up.........form horses in 4/5 but do you trust the low draw advantage ....specifically 1/2 as all the value will most likely lie there ??.....more races to come Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell 120 south thurs poor maiden ......little or no form ...come uppance is the form horse having recorded a rating of 50 on both of last two runs so at least consistent ......that was wolv so translating would be on trust .....but drawn 4 and both last two runs same rating has to be the one to beat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell 320 south thurs best betting heat of the day red stripes facile win lto puts him top (51)but drawn 9 so not so good .....could go in again though and southwell proven form,....ifitakesforever also proven course form and still looks feasibly hcapped but drawn 8 .....might be the value bet ......pancake day has collateral lines with ifitakesforever and is drawn 4 .....so has to go on shortlist especially ew ........but for me red stripes in 9 is by far the best hcapped but pancake day has a level of form needed to minimumally win this from stall 4 ......but if you like him then ifittakesforever is weighted to draw with him but drawn 8 ...........don't like this race at all ........form horses drawn wide .....I have this priced up at red stripes 5/2 ifittakesforever 4/1......and pancake day 13/2 .......so the ew value is pancake day but off a mark of 55?.....I don't think he can win ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell so that's my take on the race ..........but the whole point is low draws .....I looked at the last 6 .....5f races and is as follows ...... 231 351 136 245 643 431 out of 6 races 5 from 6 winners (80%) were blindly drawn 1-4 11 of 18 available places were drawn 1-3.....(66%) so according to that .......your horse must be low 3......no matter where form horses are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell for for the fun bit .........backing bottom 4 draws in 6 runner or more races in s.f ....12 bets a race makes 29.77 25.77 29.7 114.75 outlay 72 return 199.99 seems we are missing the big bucks another foecast lost by neck ...would have been another 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Re: Five Furlong Races at Southwell the 643 race was one hundred quid forecast so theres a chance of good win too and no form reading ...you just back blind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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