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Nap of the day 14th november 2014

corky

By corky
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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corky

corky

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 1405 lingfield 1pt win heisman 7/4 boyles olly stevens 3 year old colt has been supported in the market in his 3 races so far and it aint no surprise that he is at the top of the betting for his 4th career run,and he should be able to win a race like this,

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Rainbow

Rainbow

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 1.50 cheltenham un majeur aulmes. dartnall yard flying at the moment, and this one is open to further progression. trip and ground arent of any concern and a mark of 125 fits in quite well, especially if theres improvement to come. should be able to run at a pace he likes with the race looking to be run at a decent pace, so all in all would appear a value bet at current odds. 0.5 pts ew 18/1 betvictor bog

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Smarty72

Smarty72

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 Friday 14th November 14.25 Cheltenham - Class 2 Novice Chase - 2m 4.5f Old Course Ground currently Good To Soft 7 runners declared...... Bullet Street - 6yo trained by Evan Williams having 10th Chase run. Won twice over fences and carries a 8lb penalty for those wins. Looks to prefer good ground or better. Won last time out at Ludlow and OR of 130 with best RPR of 132 achieved LTO. Already rated a much better chaser than hurdler but does not look good enough to win with the penalty. Did win a maiden hurdle in Ireland on heavy over 2m. Unlikely to improve enough to win this. Splash Of Ginge - 6yo trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies having 3rd chase run. On my list of novice chases to follow after a CD win last time out. Gained a RPR of 146 and OR 146 for that performance. Carrys a 8lb penalty for that class 2 win. Grade 3 handicap hurdle winner over 2m 1/2f. No concerns over ground. Not sure has the ability to be real top class but very strong contender. Champagne West - 6yo trained by Philip Hobbs making chase debut. Did win on only Point to Point run. Future probably is over 3m + over fences. Decent novice hurdler rated OR 142 with best RPR over hurdles of 143 in the 3m Albert Bartlett at the festive when 4th and also same RPR for win in class 3 novice hurdle at Ascot over 2m 6f. Colour Squadron - 8yo trained by Philip Hobbs having 9th run over fences. Yet to win a chase but some excellent performances in defeat and some very poor performances. Run really well in big Grade 3 handicaps here at Cheltenham at around today's distance. OR of 152 and sets a high standard. Dell' Arca - 5yo trained by David Pipe making chase debut. Looks better suited to 2m and this could be the limit of his stamina. Decent Novice hurdler rated OR 145 and best RPR over hurdles of 145. May just struggle up the hill to the finish. The Wexfordian - 5yo trained by Martin Keighley making debut over fences after one 2nd in a Point To Point and 2 bumper runs. Very tough introduction to jumping and likely outsider! Urban Hymn - 6yo trained by Malcolm Jefferson making 2nd run over fences. Was 2nd on Chase debut at Carlisle over 2m to the smart looking Duke Of Navan. RPR of 135 for that performance with the handicapper allocating a mark of 141. Will be suited by step up in distance from debut but may still need further. Looks a real stayer to me. Off those who have run over fences Urban Hymn, Colour Squadron and Splash Of Ginge are the 3 to concentrate on. Bullet Street looks outclassed and will be hard for him to concede 8lb to 5 other horses. Colour Squadron for me is the one to beat from those who have previously run over fences and this will be his easiest and best chance to get that 1st win over fences. Has a good record here at Cheltenham in Grade 3 handicap chase's and if runs to that sort of form will be hard to beat. The 8lb penalty to be carried by Spash Of Ginge will make it hard for him to beat Colour Squadron but has winning C and D form form the October meeting. Urban Hymn may just need heavy ground to be effective at this trip and may be better over further in time. Will be better for step in distance from last time. However these fences are a lot harder than those he jumped at Carlisle. These 3 have a big advantage with chase experience and a recent run. Off those making chase debut Dell' Arca and Champagne West are the 2 to concentrate on. The Wexfordian could be anything! Dell' Arca may just struggle uphill at the finish over this distance and would probably have been better over 2m in his 1st race over fences. Fancy Champagne West to be best of these 2 but his future for me is over further. Do not think Splash of Ginge should be 5th in the betting (despite 8lb penalty) and will finish in the top 3. Colour Squadron looks the most likely winner but yet to win over fences. At the prices it has to be.... 1pt Win - Splash Of Ginge @ 13\2 PP BOG

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Dund0n

Dund0n

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 1.40 Newcastle - Montoya's Son win @ 6/4 Bet365 I can't really see this one being beaten here. He won very well lto by 7 lengths and even though he has been put up 10lbs I don't feel that will be enough to stop him from notching a hat-trick. The 6th from his last race has gone on to win and he is still well handicapped on his old form. He won here over C&D from a mark of 118 and at Carlisle off a mark of 120 in 2012 and 2011 respectively. While this is quite old form he is only 9 and looks as though he still retains all of his ability so he should go well here and continue his good run

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santos_

santos_

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 Chelt 1.50 - Next Sensation (1pts win, 12/1 Bet365) Was good last season around this time and largely kept form well. Ran 4th here at the festival behind Savello with a game front running effort likes to get out in front and get on with things and should be sharper forhis return run earlier in the month.

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robertob

robertob

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 14.25 Cheltenham: Novices' Chase (Class 2) - Bullet Street: Winner lto at Ludlow, open to further improvement, but tough weight assigned. - Splash Of Ginge: Impressive winner at this track recently, unexposed over fences, was top class hurdler and sure more to come. Gives weight away, though. - Champagne West: Excellent hurdler, former point to point winner, still lightly raced and of obvious interest on chasing debut. Fitness has to be taken on trust on seasonal reappearance. - Colour Squadron: Consistent and classy hurdler/chase who finds winning difficult. Likely to give good account with proven match fitness a big plus. - Dell’ Arca: Nicely bred, excellent hurdle form. Could well improve over fences, though not quite clear what to expect on seasonal experience. - The Wexfordian: Runner-up in point to point, lightly raced and potentially to improve over fences but tough ask to start off in this race. - Urban Hymn: Lightly raced Grade 2 winning hurdler with the potential to improve over fences. Fine runner-up on seasonal reappearance and chasing debut over trip too sharp. Will like this test today much more. Verdict: Cracking race and fair cases can me made for many. Colour Squadron deserves to be head of the market, given that he has consistent, strong Graded form to offer. However he looks more like a fair price than anything else and the fact he more often than not finds one too good, puts me off. I do like Splash Of Ginge who is likely to improve and will benefit from match fitness. He gives a good deal of weight away and would need to be a bit special to win this I feel. Champagne West is a really exciting prospect and if fit, he’ll be bound for a big run. He looks a fair price in my eyes. So does Dell’ Arca who may find the Cheltenham hill in soft conditions over this trip a bit too much in the end. Urban Hymn in contrast should very much relish the trip and the ground and I expect him to benefit a great deal from his recent seasonal reappearance which should set him up nicely for today. Tested over fences for the first time, over too short 2m – he looks open to significant improvement and looks the one who is slightly overpriced in this field. Urban Hymn @ 9/2 VC

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chris34

chris34

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 2.40 Lingfield Don’t Have It Then has a good record on the AW but is starting to look plenty high enough in the weights at present. Amosite is the obvious front runner in this field but unlikely to be left alone in this field and likely to compromise his chance. Artic Lynx has dropped to 7lb below last winning mark but failed to show much recently but a strongly run race will suit him. Top Offer another prominent runner won last time out, a 4lb rise not out of the question but clearly needs more in a competitive heat. Moiety is an unknown quantity to a certain degree, winning in very good style on 2nd start last time out at Kempton over this trip. A mark of 70 hard to judge as that maiden was a pretty weak affair with the 2nd officially rated 63 and failed to back that effort up. One to watch at this stage. Multitask won last night at Kempton over 7f, under a 6lb penalty racing off a mark of 75 and is yet to win off a mark this high. Pour La Victoire was 7th in Multitasks race last night however he looked badly in need of a drop back in trip having shaped as if he had emptied out. Not sure either of these could cope with another race today so put off by them. Varsovian is an interesting runner for a yard who appear to have hit a purple patch at present. He has improved for the switch to sprinting winning twice at Kempton over this trip. First time in really good style, didn’t get the best run through last time out off revised mark only just failing to get up. Up 6lb for that effort but that race has worked out ok and he remains fully unexposed at this trip and looks to have been freshened up for a winter campaign. 1pt win Varsovian 7/1 hills

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kev2oo9

kev2oo9

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 12.55 Lingfield - Elpida 1pt win 9/2 betvictor Had the 5 starts now but last two races look good in h.cap company , lto 5L behind now 86 rated runner and penultimate was behind two subsequent winners , drops back into maiden company and crowley takes the ride as he did two starts back , he is 9/20 for simcocks runners at the track , 5/11 with 3yos Trainers only runner of the day

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 Cheltenham 3:00 - Parlour Games WIN @ 9/1 Stan James Blaklion looks very progressive and could be hard to beat but Parlour Games looks the value to me and we could see improvement in him stepping up to 2m5f for the first time today. Is out of Petrushka who was a stayer on the flat so I am hopeful he will appreciate the stiffer test. Finished 2nd behind Blue Heron over 2 miles when last seen and Barry Geraghty a top booking for in-form John Ferguson.

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bartrum

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Re: Nap of the day 14th november 2014 1.15 cheltenham handy andy @5/1 ladbrokes won this last yr off a 6lb lower Mark. I remember how well he ran on up the hill.... Conditions will suit, acts on the track, goes well for the jockey and I think the fav is way to short.... Not convinced about the pipe runners at the moment, although he does like a winner at this meeting....

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