Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Big day of racing today and I probably have a few more fancies than I would like initially. I would like to run through my workings but I dont have enough time at the moment. Sandown 1.50 - Brick Red 4 @ 1 WH MB2 1.50 - Arkaim 11 @ 0.5 COR MBF 2.25 - Champagne West 2.5 @ 1 WH MB2 3.00 - Polamco 3.5 @ 1 WH MB2 3.00 - Junction Fourteen 8 @ 0.5 Coral MBF 3.35 - Le Reve 6 @ 1 Coral MBF 3.35 - Theatrical Star 7 @ 1 WH MB2 4.10 - Monbeg Theatre 6.5 @ 0.5 Betvictor Ffos Las 1.30 - Keytothewest 7 @ 1 Skybet 2.05 - Kayf Moss 33 @ 0.5 Bet365 2.05 - Oscar Sunset 6 @ 0.5 WH MB2 2.40 - Global Power 5 @ 1 PP MBF Wetherby 2.10 - Firth of the Clyde 5 @ 1 Betfred 3.20 - Return Spring 5.5 @ 0.5 PP MBF

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Small profit today thanks to wins from Le Reve and Brick Red. Theatrical Star finished 2nd so I get my money back on him for another day as well. I will run through each race quickly. Sandown 1.50 - Good dour win from Brick Red staying on well up the hill. Arkaim ran a good race from the front but tired late on to finish 3rd. 2.25 - Wouldnt have backed the winner with stolen money but CW fell when still going well enough. I suspect he wouldnt have been far away but his jumping wasnt good enough to find out. 3.00 - Polamco didnt go on the ground and JF ran a blinder up until the last where he faded and the rest stayed on. The winner showed up on my ratings as being well handicapped but was looked over on the basis that he fell LTO. Likewise the 2nd place was looked over as I feared the bounce factor. 3.35 - Le Reve stayed on well up the hill but turning in I thought TS was the more likely one to collect. Impressive performance in the conditions and whilst TS has a habit of finding one, Le Reve still looks progressive under the right circumstances. 4.10 - MT finished an unlucky 2nd having hit the last and wandering on the run in. On another day I would have collected. Ffos Las in all honesty wasnt raceable and shouldnt have gone ahead. Kayf Moss ran a good race at a big price but was beaten by another that made my list in Silsol. In hindsight Im not sure why I didnt back Silsol ahead of Oscar Sunset and probably goes down as a missed opportunity. The other two I had on the card pulled up and I wouldnt have backed the winner in either. Wetherby was also disappointing. FOTC didnt run his race but I wouldnt have backed the winner. Return Spring jumped poorly and he was mainly a value pick as I had him and the eventual first and second within 1lb of each other with Ned Stark being the most likely. That one ultimately got on top in the end but I wasnt sure he was value at the time. I will do a total check sooner or later.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Good racing in Musselburgh today. 1.00 - The Grey Taylor 6/1 @ 0.5 - Betvictor - Small field and 3 of which are closely rated. IMO this one shouldnt be the price he is. 1.30 - Swaledale Lad 7/1 @ 1 Coral MBF 3.00 - A Boy Called Suzi 11/2 @ 1 - Betvictor 3.00 - Sweet Deal 8/1 @ 0.5 - Coral MBF 4.30 - Call Me Bubbles 18/1 @ 1 - Stan James 4.30 - Capellanus 16/1 @ 0.5 - Coral MBF

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Only the one winner in Shanroe Santos yesterday and that was a half stake at that but I did get two seconds in The Grey Taylor and Swaledale Lad with the latter probably the winner without the mistake at the second last. A Boy Called Suzi and Capellanus both ran well enough without being quite good enough to win and I honestly didnt realise Call Me Bubbles hadnt been seen on the course for over 400 hundred days as he wouldnt have been a bet. Thats a really poor one because I just dont bet on those types unless its early season. In terms of the winners of those races, Ifandbutwhynot was the only other horse in the field that I thought was well enough handicapped but at the prices I was only going to pick the one I did. I also had Retrieve down as being well handicapped on his last run but I thought this would be a step up too far in grade. I didnt see Streets of Newyork being well enough treated and Sea Lord looked on a good mark but out of form. In the last I was dubious about the trip for Dawalan and Run Ructions Run despite being well enough handicapped but I wouldnt have back Kruzhlinen with stolen money! Couple of days off now while the conditions are unraceable.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary It may well be called off tomorrow but I have one at Taunton in the novice handicap: 3.45 - Sea Wall 7/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points The horse has improved a lot since leaving Nicholls which isnt something you can say that often and his last 3 runs have worked out well despite only the one win. He might have done better than 3rd LTO as well if he hadnt slipped on landing over the last. I am pretty confident that he is well handicapped and conditions will suit.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary There is also a couple at Meydan tomorrow that I am interested in, albeit I wont be putting them up as selections. Both horses are with the always dangerous combination of Hannon & Hughes in the first and last races on the card. Ninjago is a horse that is well handicapped and enjoys big fields going off hard. He hasnt won enough for a horse of his ability and I imagine he may need this with a view to winning his next start. He is short enough for tomorrow currently. The other is Magic City who holds far more interest. Ran a decent enough race LTO when he was hampered considerably and he is also a horse that is well handicapped on his best form from last season. This type of race will suit him, the draw looks decent and he is a decent enough price. In fact sod it I will put him up! Meydan - Magic City 10/1 Bet365 @ 0.5 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

It may well be called off tomorrow but I have one at Taunton in the novice handicap: 3.45 - Sea Wall 7/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points The horse has improved a lot since leaving Nicholls which isnt something you can say that often and his last 3 runs have worked out well despite only the one win. He might have done better than 3rd LTO as well if he hadnt slipped on landing over the last. I am pretty confident that he is well handicapped and conditions will suit.

This one bloody ran out and shipped his rider!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

There is also a couple at Meydan tomorrow that I am interested in, albeit I wont be putting them up as selections. Both horses are with the always dangerous combination of Hannon & Hughes in the first and last races on the card. Ninjago is a horse that is well handicapped and enjoys big fields going off hard. He hasnt won enough for a horse of his ability and I imagine he may need this with a view to winning his next start. He is short enough for tomorrow currently. The other is Magic City who holds far more interest. Ran a decent enough race LTO when he was hampered considerably and he is also a horse that is well handicapped on his best form from last season. This type of race will suit him, the draw looks decent and he is a decent enough price. In fact sod it I will put him up! Meydan - Magic City 10/1 Bet365 @ 0.5 points

Ran well enough to finish 4th and probably hinted that there may be one of these in him. Ninjago was never travelling well enough. I fancied the winner Dark Emerald but really didnt think this would be his trip!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Kempton 3.35 - 3 Mile Handicap Chase (C3) I am going to use a process of elimination on this one. Those not in enough form or ones that are too inconsistent = Cantlow, American Spin & Howards Legacy. Those with serious trip doubts = Open Hearted, Baby Shine, Umberto & Ballyheigue This therefore leaves Firm Order and Salmanazar. On hurdles form Salmanazar is well enough handicapped, he probably gets the trip (only ran over 21f over hurdles) and he has scope for improvement. On the other hand, his chase form hasnt been amazing so far and he didnt get any further than the first LTO. Firm Order has been in great form of late, he is proven at the trip, he has won around here and whilst at the age of 10 he might not be progressive, he is still on a good mark. Conditions will be fine and based on the fact he has been there and done it previously I will side with him. Firm Order 5 @ 1 Corals (MBF)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Kempton 3.35 - 3 Mile Handicap Chase (C3) I am going to use a process of elimination on this one. Those not in enough form or ones that are too inconsistent = Cantlow, American Spin & Howards Legacy. Those with serious trip doubts = Open Hearted, Baby Shine, Umberto & Ballyheigue This therefore leaves Firm Order and Salmanazar. On hurdles form Salmanazar is well enough handicapped, he probably gets the trip (only ran over 21f over hurdles) and he has scope for improvement. On the other hand, his chase form hasnt been amazing so far and he didnt get any further than the first LTO. Firm Order has been in great form of late, he is proven at the trip, he has won around here and whilst at the age of 10 he might not be progressive, he is still on a good mark. Conditions will be fine and based on the fact he has been there and done it previously I will side with him. Firm Order 5 @ 1 Corals (MBF)

Salmanazar didnt get further than the first again and despite travelling well for the most part Firm Order fell in a hole somewhat.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Good racing at Newbury today and I will be on my way their shortly. Hopefully it will be a good day! 1.15 - Cardinal Walter 3 @ 0.5 Bet365 I had this one and Risk A Fine at the top of my list but that one pulls too hard and is a little unreliable in that respect so a chance is taken with the favourite who has been backed over night. 1.50 - Milan Bound 10/3 @ 1 & Rydon Pynes 10 @ 0.5 Bet365 & Paddy Power I was left with Milansbar, Araldur and these two on my final list. Araldur isnt progressive and whilst I cant imagine he will be far away he doesnt suggest to me that he will be good enough to win. Milansbar has been progressing nicely in testing conditions but he has gone up so much in the weights and on slightly better ground that he is used to he may not quite be as good this time. Milan Bound's run LTO was excellent and he had bounced back to show the promise he showed when he was a novice. Rydon Pynes is having his first run this season so caution is being exercised but he will love this long straight and he wont go down without a fight especially as his form fresh is very good. 2.25 - I havent made my mind up on this one yet. Harry Topper is the best horse in the race but he has doubts over current form & the ground. Houblon Des Obeaux and Taquin De Seaul are the next two on my list and while I am leaning towards the latter, the former is higher on my ratings. This better ground will be a bonus for the Jonjo horse. 3.00 - Unixandre 5/1 @ 1 William Hill MB2 Sire De Grugy is sure to be popular but I try and leave horses alone after an injury so I have looked elsewhere. Unixandre is clear of the rest of the field, the slightly better ground will help and he should run well. 3.35 - Cheltenian 33/1 0.5 ew, Amore Alato 25/1 @ 1 & On Tour 12/1 @ 1 - Corals A shit load in this race are well handicapped and working through them all took me a while. Im not going to go through them all but I will talk about why I hve selected the ones I have. Cheltenian ran really well in this last year, travelled well for a long way at Cheltenham and then went close at Aintree and Punchestown both times suggesting 16f would be his best trip. Big handicap form is always a plus in races like this and he shouldnt be the price he is. He might not quite be well enough in to win, but he has a huge EW chance. Amore Alato is a horse I have fancied for a while and he went very close at Sandown before flopping at the same venue the next time. He was held up that time in a slowly run race and that can catch you at badly at that track. There are a few front runners in this but I expect him to go out closer to the pace this time and he is a good price. On Tour seems to be everyone's favourite today given he is Pricewise and everyone in the C4 studio has tipped him up. His form so far is rock solid, 2 miles should be perfect for him given how well he travels. He is still hugely progressive. I also have a couple in one race at Lingfield: Lingfield 3.45 - Boomthegroom 3.5 @ 1 & Go Far 8/1 @ 1 Corals & BV

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Mixed fortunes at Newbury... Cardinal Walter finished 2nd, the next was a farce of a race with the field leaving the winner alone all the way and I didnt touch the next as I couldnt make my mind up but Coneygree was very impressive from the front (which seemed to be a theme for the day). In the big race Unixandre travelled well for most of the way but emptied ridiculously quickly before unseating. Sire De Grugy was really poor, strangely they walked him a lot after saddling but then put him back in the saddling box before going into the parade ring after the jockeys had come out. He then ran with no zest, made plenty of errors and was under pressure and not finding anything before losing his rider. I wouldnt be interested in backing him for Cheltenham after that. In the big handicap I did at least get a 2nd with Cheltenian who looked like he may have been reeling in the winner prior to walking through the last. Yet again it was another winner from the front. Amore Alato never featured and On Tour came through late before flattening out. He looked set for a place but in the end Im not sure where he finished. I left the 2 horse race alone but did at least finish on a high with Barters Hill gamely winning the last (from the front!). On the AW - Both selections ran well in a bunched finish but couldnt get their head in front despite both looking like collecting at one point.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Catterick 3.40 - Sixty Something 4/1 @ 1 Bet365 Interesting race on paper. I think the favourite is potentially vulnerable, Saint Are is having a renaissance at the moment but is likely to find one, Pinerolo & Everaard are inconsistent and Soudain will be better over further and on softer ground and also probably at a more galloping track. Sixty Something has ran 2 really good races in a row and probably didnt quite stay LTO after looking a real threat turning in. My question mark would be whether that race has left its mark but if not he has conditions to suit, he is well handicapped and just as importantly he is still capable of improvement.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Catterick 3.40 - Sixty Something 4/1 @ 1 Bet365 Interesting race on paper. I think the favourite is potentially vulnerable, Saint Are is having a renaissance at the moment but is likely to find one, Pinerolo & Everaard are inconsistent and Soudain will be better over further and on softer ground and also probably at a more galloping track. Sixty Something has ran 2 really good races in a row and probably didnt quite stay LTO after looking a real threat turning in. My question mark would be whether that race has left its mark but if not he has conditions to suit, he is well handicapped and just as importantly he is still capable of improvement.

Saint Are won pretty well in the end which is a bit gutting as he was the only other horse in the race that I thought could win but his price was short enough even last night for a runner that tends to find one too good. Sixty Something would have finished closer but for some errors over the last few flights and narrowly missed out on 2nd.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ayr 2.45 - 3 mile Nov Hcap Hurdle I whittled this down as follows: One for Arthur - Well enough handicapped but he is a gangley sort described as weak and backwards by his trainer. Won a weak race on heavy LTO and not sure he is the sort to appreciate Ayr's tighter track. Gilnockie - Also well handicapped and improved for the step up to 20f LTO. Bred to stay even further and more improvement likely. Bryden Boy - Another on a decent mark but doubt he will stay the trip sufficiently. Teddy Tee - Looks on a stiff enough mark now. Turtle Cask - Slowly improving and ran well from the front LTO over shorter. Proven over further and his front running style might suit the track. Selections Gilnockie 9/2 @ 0.5 - Corals (MBF) Turtle Cask 6/1 @ 0.5 - Corals (MBF) Ayr 4.20 - 20f C3 Handicap Chase This race contains a right old mixed bunch of rogues and while I wouldnt argue that a few of these are well handicapped on their best form, its not a given that most are going to show it. The only horse well handicapped and also consistent enough is Habbie Simpson and whilst the track may not be ideal (tends to come with a strong late run) I really cant see him being far off and his price is very reasonable in the circumstances. Selection Habbie Simpson 5/1 @ 1 - Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary What a load of fecking rubbish they were! I will be going back to the drawing board with that method but I have one at Chepstow that I have liked for a while. 3.30 - Quite By Chance 4 @ 1 Bet365 I wasn't going to post this up but I really like the horses form behind Stellar Notion and the Wincanton form behind Dance Floor King. A mark of 122 really underestimates his ability and whilst his price has contracted this morning, last night it was fair and probably took into account his poor run LTO on heavy.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary I thought I would spare people my thoughts on my selections over the weekend given my form but typically I have landed a few in the last couple of days, nothing big but enough to start clawing back some losses... albeit not my losses on here. There is only one race tomorrow that interests me and that is the C2 handicap hurdle at Taunton. Dell Arca is the favourite and may just be too good for these but you couldnt exactly say that he is well handicapped and like last time, he will always be vulnerable to one. He may win but at the prices its fair to look elsewhere. Ibis de Rheu is the 2nd favourite and aside from a good 2nd behind Top Notch in France he has beaten sweet FA and is only the price he is because of who trains him. Tornado In Milan is inconsistent and is more than likely flattered by his LTO win here and Lough Kent strikes me as a quirky sort who doesnt look like he wants to win. Dusky Lark is from a stable I really cant get to grips with (when I think they have a live one they disappoint and when I think a horse has no chance they win!) and Ronaldinho doesnt look as though he is on a great mark, especially when the softer ground is likely to be against him. That leaves me with Fox Norton. He has long been a fancy of mine running in the novice races but he has proven to be a shade below the top level. His runs at Punchestown and Aintree have worked out really well and they suggest that he could be really well in off this mark. I have two small concerns so I wont be going nuts, one of which is the ground and despite being a winner on soft in France his best form over here has been on a sounder surface. The other concern is the recent lay off. I thought this might have been a prep for Cheltenham but I cant see that he is entered in any of the handicaps and with Fehily on board it would suggest that he is going to be primed. If he is then I think he is more than capable of scoring from this mark, albeit I will exercise some caution in my staking. 3.45 Taunton - 13/2 William Hill - 0.5 points

[Boulder5111]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Looks like you're turning the corner in time for Chelters BB ! Nice winner :ok

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

I thought I would spare people my thoughts on my selections over the weekend given my form but typically I have landed a few in the last couple of days, nothing big but enough to start clawing back some losses... albeit not my losses on here. There is only one race tomorrow that interests me and that is the C2 handicap hurdle at Taunton. Dell Arca is the favourite and may just be too good for these but you couldnt exactly say that he is well handicapped and like last time, he will always be vulnerable to one. He may win but at the prices its fair to look elsewhere. Ibis de Rheu is the 2nd favourite and aside from a good 2nd behind Top Notch in France he has beaten sweet FA and is only the price he is because of who trains him. Tornado In Milan is inconsistent and is more than likely flattered by his LTO win here and Lough Kent strikes me as a quirky sort who doesnt look like he wants to win. Dusky Lark is from a stable I really cant get to grips with (when I think they have a live one they disappoint and when I think a horse has no chance they win!) and Ronaldinho doesnt look as though he is on a great mark, especially when the softer ground is likely to be against him. That leaves me with Fox Norton. He has long been a fancy of mine running in the novice races but he has proven to be a shade below the top level. His runs at Punchestown and Aintree have worked out really well and they suggest that he could be really well in off this mark. I have two small concerns so I wont be going nuts, one of which is the ground and despite being a winner on soft in France his best form over here has been on a sounder surface. The other concern is the recent lay off. I thought this might have been a prep for Cheltenham but I cant see that he is entered in any of the handicaps and with Fehily on board it would suggest that he is going to be primed. If he is then I think he is more than capable of scoring from this mark, albeit I will exercise some caution in my staking. 3.45 Taunton - 13/2 William Hill - 0.5 points

Finally picked a decent one on here! Haven't watched the replay but by all accounts he won quite readily. Maybe AN Aintree will be on the agenda.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Looks like you're turning the corner in time for Chelters BB ! Nice winner :ok

Thanks Boulder, I bloody hope so! :lol

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Annoyingly just lost my post on today's race! I should avoid typing on my mobile! Will have to be brief now - prices taken last night. Don 3.55 Western Jo 7 @ 1 Bet365 Relentless Dreamer 9 @ 0.5 betvictor

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ludlow 4.15 Kudu Country 11/1 @ 1 William Hill Mad Jack Mytton 8/1 @ 0.5 BV

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary So near yet so far with 2 2nds. Again I do feel that I am taking another step in the right direction as I was only done by 2 horses that I would never have backed as they were running again quickly after their last run. Only one for tomorrow: Musselburgh 330 The front two in the market look to be on reasonable marks so I wouldn't be surprised if they did win, however at the same time they aren't as thrown in as the market suggests ( at least in the case of Ginger Jack). Wilcos Mo Chara is also from a yard that are notoriously hard to catch right and it's only a couple of line through his bumper for that suggest the mark is workable. Red Inca may come back to form and if he does he is on a very good mark but there hasn't been anything to suggest that a return to form is likely. Claude Carter is likely to run well but find one and the remainder don't really have a lot for me to recommend. The one exception to that is Silver Duke at the foot of the weights. His form behind Streets of New York and El Beau have both worked out really nicely. He is still improving and whilst going up in trip may help in the future given how well he has been staying on, I think he has enough gears to deal with this field. His price is also pretty decent as well. Silver Duke - 11/2 BetVictor - 1 point

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Result! Drifted to 6/1 as well!

[kev2oo9]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Well played :)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No time for write ups today unfortunately: Kempton 2.00 - Bivouac 5/2 @ 0.5 - Betfred 3.45 - Fox Appeal 8 @ 1 - Bet365 3.45 - Le Reve 9 @ 1 - William Hill (MB2) 3.45 - Charteraux 12 @ 0.5 - Betvictor Newcastle 2.20 - Teo Tivo 7/2 @ 1 - Paddy Power (NAP - form links very well with Silver Duke in my last post) Chepstow 4.10 - Hansupfordetroit 8 @ 1 Boylesports 4.10 - Rydon Pynes 5.5 @ 0.5 - Bet365 Lingfield 2.15 - Related 8 @ 1 - Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

No time for write ups today unfortunately: Kempton 2.00 - Bivouac 5/2 @ 0.5 - Betfred 3.45 - Fox Appeal 8 @ 1 - Bet365 3.45 - Le Reve 9 @ 1 - William Hill (MB2) 3.45 - Charteraux 12 @ 0.5 - Betvictor Newcastle 2.20 - Teo Tivo 7/2 @ 1 - Paddy Power (NAP - form links very well with Silver Duke in my last post) Chepstow 4.10 - Hansupfordetroit 8 @ 1 Boylesports 4.10 - Rydon Pynes 5.5 @ 0.5 - Bet365 Lingfield 2.15 - Related 8 @ 1 - Bet365

Bit of a shocker yesterday with the only return coming from a money back special on Le Reve for being second. I will run through the results quickly: Bivouac was a disappointment but Beltor was visually impressive, absolutely storming home. I dont think Bivouac ran to form and the Nicholls horse finishing 2nd possibly let the level of the form down, but he won doing cartwheels. His form before that was excellent, albeit ratings wise it wasnt as good as the selection. My novice workings arent as strong as they were earlier in the season so thats something I will have to keep an eye on especially just ahead of Cheltenham. The Betbright was forgettable! Fox Appeal fell early, Charteraux pulled up (albeit there was an element of risk with him) but Le Reve did run a bold race but just didnt have enough to see the back of Rocky Creek. Teo Vivo was a big disappointment, he seemed to travelling up on the heels of the winner around 5 out before hitting that one, losing 1-2 lengths and after that just never travelled the same. I wasnt particularly impressed with the efforts of the jockey but it wouldnt have made the blindest bit of difference on the result. The Pertempts hurdle at Chepstow was another frustrating race with Hansupfordetroit falling early and Rydon Pynes pulling up. I was a fan of Katkeau following his sound form at Cheltenham and Haydock but I had a suspicion that the softer ground wasnt up his street and Chepstow is usually on the heavier side of soft compared to somewhere like Ascot or Cheltenham where it is on the better side of soft. I wouldnt have backed the winner with stolen money so I would have still been on the end of a loser but I would have preferred to have shouted something home! At Lingfield, Related just wasnt good enough being hassled for the lead but he is still well handicapped and will pop up somewhere.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Naas 3.20 - All Hell Let Loose 4 @ 0.5 - Skybet I have this and the Mullins horse at the top of my ratings so it will be interesting to see how well he fares against the favourite. He is a pound higher than that rival but he is enough clear to think that he could end up on top. Naas 4.20 - West of the Edge - 12 @ 1 Totesport Not a great deal to say about this race but I dont think its the strongest and I think it lacks some progressive types, of which the selection does appear to be on the up. The form of his last two chase starts has worked out well, he has won a decent enough hurdle race in between and his trainer has commented that the 22f he has been running at over chases is as short as he wants to the step up will help him too. The ground is fine and I think he should run well.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No joy today... All Hell Let Loose wasnt good enough but I didnt think the winner would be suited by the significant drop in trip. West of the Edge finished 4th in the end but the winner nor second where ever on my radar.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Just one today in the 3.25 at Bangor. Basically I think k the market is wrong in this race. The favourite could potentially be well in so I can understand the book makers stance but I doubt that Wyck Hill was that we'll treated over hurdles (the horse he beat LTO) however his second to The Tourard Man is decent in the context of how much that one has improved since. Apart from those 2 he has raced against trees so it's hard to know whether he is or isn't ahead of his mark. The second favourite looks very skinny as the Pipe horse really hasn't beaten anything. He was visually impressive at the business end last time but he has looked quirky before that. Pipes horses do pop up though so I wouldn't be surprised if he makes me look like a mug but he would probably be my lay of the race. Bourne isn't improving, he is very hot and cold and whilst he ran a better race LTO I wouldn't be confident that he could back that up especially as his trainer is equally as hot and cold. Take the cash will more than likely need the run and Quell Elite has been running really well of late but surely this 11yo will find at least one too good. This leaves me with Van dross who looks far too big. He ran well enough over 20f at Fontwell earlier in the season behind 2 progressive sorts who have gone on to do better since and that was a similar story at Warwick behind Join The Clan and the G2 winner Closing Ceremony. That was over 26f and seating races would appear to be his niche. He blotted his copy book LTO by pulling up, again at Warwick but that was only 12 days after his previous slog and can be forgiven. Assuming all is well he should be very competitive. Vandross 10/1 William Hill - 1 point