Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Nothing in the 3.40 @ Exeter for me. I need to get my bets up for the NAP of the day comp so I think I will chuck in Poyle Vinnie from the Wolves race and hope for the best!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Not much racing on tomorrow so I will be looking at the 3.40 @ Exeter shortly to see if there is anything of interest but I am also going to look at the 6f sprint handicap at Wolverhampton as I try and work out an angle on the new surface. My understanding of Tapeta is that it is meant to ride like turf but because I dont really believe that I will be using a mixture of AW stats and turf stats. Usually for the AW I will solely look at AW form so it will be interesting to see if anything does transfer across. My figures for the horses I think are well enough handicapped as follows: Poyle Vinnie 89 Foxy Forever 88 Lady Horatia 87 George Rooke 86 Taquka 84 Amygdala 83 Realize 82 Desert Strike 81 There doesnt appear to be any definitive bias in the draw from the ATR stats and looking at the right ups of previous sprints there doesnt appear to be a particular pace bias. Ones to rule out: Foxy Forever has run poorly on his first 3 starts and while I think he has heaps in hand, I would like to see something first or at least get a much better price. George Rooke has never run on a synthetic surface which raises enough doubt to pass on. Desert Strike is bound to pop up somewhere but not in a race as competitive as this at his age. Based on this my 1-2-3 would be Poyle Vinnie, Lady Horatia & Taquka. Im not going to be betting anything at this stage but it will be interesting to see what happens.

Interesting result really. The rejuvinated Amadeus Wolfe Tone won which is fair enough because he wouldnt have come onto my radar given his inconsistencies but the next 5 where my top 5 with Poyle Vinnie second, Foxy Forever 3rd (who did bounce back) and then Taquka, Lady Hotatia and George Rooke following. I will try and have a look at another race when they next have a meeting. As for tomorrow, there is nothing that takes my eye so I will be keeping my powder dry.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Carlisle 3.25 - 17f Handicap Hurdle C3 I think this is a pretty decent race albeit with a lot of them not having run so far this season which could make things a little unpredictable. The horses on my radar are as follows: Ueueteotl - I actually backed this horse when he won at Musselbrough last season and I am still convinced he is well handicapped off this new mark. His win that day looked solid (3rd, 4th and 5th running well since) and he was unlucky not to collect the race before when hitting the last two flights ruined his chance (winner and 4th ran well since). His older form stacks up well too and then main concern is probably just whether the ground will be suitable enough. His trainer has commented that he needs good ground and it is currently soft up in Carlisle. It is scheduled to be a dry day up north and even if it isnt the form of his close 4th on soft previously has worked out well enough to suggest he can still perform well. Frankies Promise isnt the fluentest and he hasnt beaten anything of note. Granaruid at the age of 11 shouldnt be winning a decent race like this but his course form is excellent and by my reckoning it puts him well in the picture. It would be no surprise if he did win, but I also wouldnt be surprised if he finds one or two too good. Just Cameron is difficult to work out. His form is a little patchy overall and whilst he has a couple of lines that suggest he is capable off this mark the impression that I get is that he will probably also find one or two too good. Mohawk Ridge is another difficult to work out based on his novice form. He flopped on hcap debut LTO where he didnt really jump that well but before that he looked to be getting his act together and his form suggests he is more than capable from this mark. He wouldnt be the strongest of selections but I think there is enough promise there to take a chance. Emral Silk won a poor race and can be taken on at the prices even with considering the visual promise he showed. Tikkandemickey looks a solid horse and doesnt strike me as being well handicapped, which is probably why he returned to novice races at the end of last season. Conditions will suit though and I doubt he will be far off. Back to Bracka's stable debut was an absolute stinker and whilst a couple of bits of Irish form suggest that he might have a bit of an engine and be capable, he will need to show it on this side of the Irish Sea before I will be interested. Selections Ueueteotl 10/1 William Hill - 0.5 points Mohawk Ridge 10/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Carlisle 3.25 - 17f Handicap Hurdle C3 Selections Ueueteotl 10/1 William Hill - 0.5 points Mohawk Ridge 10/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points

No good today. Ueueteotl rallied for 3rd and probably needed this run so I do think he is still well handicapped under the right conditions (mainly 20f on GS or better ground). Mohawk Ridge ran poorly and has something to prove.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Jumps Staked: 7.5 Returned: 7.55 Profit: 0.05

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Doncaster 3.30 - 6f C2 Aetna - 102 Kimberella - 97 Pipers Note - 97 Foxtrot Romeo - 97 Red Pike - 96 There are a couple of others who would be a little higher in the ratings but I have ruled them out on account of one thing or another. Aetna is a clear pick for me but given the big field I will also pick another on the other side of the draw of which I will side with Kimberella because he has won on heavy ground, albeit without showing the level of form he has shown recently especially as Pipers Note hasnt shown anything on a soft surface. Aetna 10/1 Betvictor - 1 point Kimberella 14 Betvictor - 0.5 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Doncaster 3.30 - 6f C2 Aetna - 102 Kimberella - 97 Pipers Note - 97 Foxtrot Romeo - 97 Red Pike - 96 There are a couple of others who would be a little higher in the ratings but I have ruled them out on account of one thing or another. Aetna is a clear pick for me but given the big field I will also pick another on the other side of the draw of which I will side with Kimberella because he has won on heavy ground, albeit without showing the level of form he has shown recently especially as Pipers Note hasnt shown anything on a soft surface. Aetna 10/1 Betvictor - 1 point Kimberella 14 Betvictor - 0.5 points

Aetna was an NR and Kimberella all but pulled up. Staked 11 Returned 30 Profit 19

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Doncaster 2.40 - Dashing Star 7/1 William Hill (potential for money back 2nd) - 1 Point Plenty of racing on the flat tomorrow but there isnt too much that stands out other than this one. Loves it soft, will be a strong stayer at the trip and whilst I generally prefer horses that are ridden off the pace at Donny I think this one is still capable of overcoming that small bias because the rest are a bit of a mixed bunch.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Aintree 2.30 - 20f Handicap Hurdle C3 Lyvius has always striked me as a quirky horse and with the trip unknown and his form at Aintree previous being pretty poor this one is easy enough for me to pass on. Spirit of Shankley has never really transferred his novice form into handicaps but he likes it here and his form does suggest that he is weighted to win. The form of his last two wins in handicaps have worked out quite well and they were in much better company than this. When I initially reviewed this race I thought he was probably a little short on his form but given that I dont like many of the others I think he must have a great chance tomorrow especially given the form of his connections. Kingsmere bolted up in a Cheltenham handicap which is never an easy thing to do but the actual bare form of his recent starts since he came back hurdling has been poor and there isnt much to suggest he can win off this mark other than the visual impression he made that day at HQ. Saphir River is a horse I cant get a handle on and whilst there are a couple of pieces of form in there, his general profile is too inconsistent for my liking. Taigan looked a horse going places in the spring of 2013 but with just one very uninspiring run since then he isnt hard to pass on. The form of his 2 southwell runs hasnt worked out either. Mojolika is now with a new yard and they will have to extract more out of him as he looked badly handicapped last season for the Easterby team. Roberto Pegasus looks an improver at this trip based on his win in a maiden LTO but that was desperately weak and I dont think his mark is particularly generous. Some of the horses he has ran close to have done well in other novice events but flopped in handicaps and that makes me think he was somewhat flattered. Gold Chain again might not be on the greatest of marks because the form he has showed hasnt worked out the greatest. Get Home Now is 0-8 off marks of 115+ which is enough to put me off. He probably wouldnt be a bad EW shout though. Tantamount could be the one at a price if he is fit enough to do himself justice. He bolted up here a couple of runs back and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all done well since suggesting a mark closer to 130 would be more realistic. He then ran another decent race that has produced solid form (without being spectacular) over 25f where he was help up to get the trip and gave the winner too much rope. On the basis of those two runs I am confident that he can win off a mark of 119 although it does concern me slightly that his form before that Aintree run was very poor and roughly 20-30lb worse than his last 2 starts. At the odds he is worth a shot. Spirit of Shankley 3/1 Paddy Power 0.5 pts Tantamount 10/1 Skybet 0.5 pts

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Aintree 3.00 - Module 5/1 Boylesports & Unixandre 4/1 William Hill (MB2) - 0.5 pts each Not exactly inspired selections in this race with the first and second favourite but I think they are the best horses in the race and they are also competitively handicapped. Both will love the trip and the ground and if they are in anything like the form they were in at the end of last season they should win. There could be a danger from either the Nicholls or Henderson horse but they dont exactly convince me that they are that well in at the weights and they look more flattered by their group form compared to the two selected. Conquisto could be a danger if he is back to the form of his win in this last season but given his form since then that is a huge if.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Chepstow 4.10 - Boondooma 9/2 Skybet & Shelford 6/1 Bet365 - 1 Point each Im running out of time this morning so I will have to keep this short and sweet. Boondooma was my first winner on the thread over jumps and the reason for that race still applies here. He won that at a canter, beating some solid horses in the process and a 12lb rise looks fair. His form is rock solid and should take some beating. Shelford is a similarly unexposed type and the Skelton yard are going great guns and they do well with these types of horses that they have picked up from other yards. His reappearance LTO was full of promise and whilst we dont know a lot about the form at this stage, the Nicholls horse was well fancied and could potentially be reasonably smart. His Ascot form from the end of last season on his first run from the yard has worked out well and his only other previous run over hurdles for his old yard isnt bad either. Of the rest, Regal Encore is likely to be fancied but I cant work out whether this horse really wants to win. With the ability he has (and he appears very well handicapped) he should have won more by now and I cant help but think that McCoy but not be the best partner he could have because I think he needs to be ridden fairly aggressively and not ridden like he is Frankel (like Jezki last season). The Pipe and Lavelle horses have plenty of scope and the latter looks reasonably priced as a long shot but Im not convinced this is the right trip. I could see Aubusson winning but there isnt enough information for me to go on to be putting it up as a selection. Hidden Identity could prove to be well in as his run behind Quevega and Glens Melody (the first time) has worked out well but the handicap form is a little weak (albeit she won both).

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Both the 2.00 at Aintree and 4.45 at Chepstow look very competitive races so it will only be a watching brief for me. I wouldnt be surprised to see a few winners come from either race though.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Doncaster 2.40 - Dashing Star 7/1 William Hill (potential for money back 2nd) - 1 Point Plenty of racing on the flat tomorrow but there isnt too much that stands out other than this one. Loves it soft, will be a strong stayer at the trip and whilst I generally prefer horses that are ridden off the pace at Donny I think this one is still capable of overcoming that small bias because the rest are a bit of a mixed bunch.

Ran well for a long way but was no match for the winner. At least he finished 2nd and I could get my stake back. Flat Staked: 12 Returned: 31 Profit: 19

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Aintree 2.30 - 20f Handicap Hurdle C3 Spirit of Shankley 3/1 Paddy Power 0.5 pts Tantamount 10/1 Skybet 0.5 pts

Sprit of Shankley does the business at short odds but keeps me ticking over. Tantamount was very disappointing but may have needed it.

Aintree 3.00 - Module 5/1 Boylesports & Unixandre 4/1 William Hill (MB2) - 0.5 pts each

Module drifted like a barge and ran accordingly which to me suggests that there may be a bigger plan for him. Unixandre ran well for a long way but didnt really quicken at the business end but what a run by Wishful Thinking! On his day he is a very good horse but picking the right day can be bloody difficult!

Chepstow 4.10 - Boondooma 9/2 Skybet & Shelford 6/1 Bet365 - 1 Point each

Shelford got his nose in front with some fine leaps down the back straight to return my first full stake bet. Aubusson ran a fine race in second but Boondooma never really looked happy and found nothing in the straight. It may have been the 12lb increase but I dont think that was his true form. I still think he is well handicapped. Jumps Staked: 12.5 Returned: 16.55 Profit: 4.05

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary There is some decent races tomorrow over the sticks but unless my plans change I'm not going to have any time to look at them but I should be able to look over Mondays cards.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Only the one race today. Ayr 3.50 - 25f C3 Handicap Chase Streams of Whiskey is an intriguing sort. Fell when in with a chance on 2 starts in a row, the first time making plenty of errors and the second when jumping pretty well and sliding on landing (as opposed to clouting the fence). The winner of both those races is a fair sort and the eventual 2nd placed horses havent done badly either. He seemed to lose his confidence and ran poorly over hurdles first and then fences before bouncing back with a great run to get up late at Haydock which looks solid form with the 3rd and 4th running well since. The impression I get with this horse is that there is plenty more to come, especially if he strengthens further over the summer and with a history of running well fresh he should be a big player. Water Garden is a little bit of an unknown. He has looked solid in his 2 novice runs but nothing more and this should reveal how well handicapped he really is. Rowdy Rocher looks a bit risky. Was out for a long time before winning LTO but that looked a weak race and I have no idea how well handicapped he is based on that. Given he didnt win by much I would guess that he probably needs to find more, but given his lightly raced profile that isnt out of the question. Categorical is one that from a figures perspective looks well handicapped. He ran solidly at Aintree, just not quite seeing it out (2nd and 4th have done well enough since) and his 4th at Newcastle before that again looks solid given the horses that have run since. My impression is that this trip may just be slightly too long and he may just be one of those horses that will find one or two too good at the business end in a race like this. Everaard in my eyes is a surprising favourite. Next to no solid form, generally runs in snatches and his overally profile suggests he is better in the second half of the season. Presenting Junior has one piece of form I really like behind Balbriggan where the winner has placed since and the 2nd and 4th have gone on to win. His subsequent win hasnt shown any real form yet so the strength of that run is open to debate (I think the 2nd is a solid 115 handicapper at worst) but my main concern is whether he will be as effective on this slightly softer ground as all of his best form and performances have been on good or quicker. It is only good to soft so it might not be much of an issue but his trainer has expressed concerns about GS before and whilst he has won on it, it was a dire race. He looks one to keep on side on good ground or better though. Selection Streams of Whiskey 9/2 Bet365 0.5 pts

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Only the one race today. Ayr 3.50 - 25f C3 Handicap Chase Streams of Whiskey is an intriguing sort. Fell when in with a chance on 2 starts in a row, the first time making plenty of errors and the second when jumping pretty well and sliding on landing (as opposed to clouting the fence). The winner of both those races is a fair sort and the eventual 2nd placed horses havent done badly either. He seemed to lose his confidence and ran poorly over hurdles first and then fences before bouncing back with a great run to get up late at Haydock which looks solid form with the 3rd and 4th running well since. The impression I get with this horse is that there is plenty more to come, especially if he strengthens further over the summer and with a history of running well fresh he should be a big player. Water Garden is a little bit of an unknown. He has looked solid in his 2 novice runs but nothing more and this should reveal how well handicapped he really is. Rowdy Rocher looks a bit risky. Was out for a long time before winning LTO but that looked a weak race and I have no idea how well handicapped he is based on that. Given he didnt win by much I would guess that he probably needs to find more, but given his lightly raced profile that isnt out of the question. Categorical is one that from a figures perspective looks well handicapped. He ran solidly at Aintree, just not quite seeing it out (2nd and 4th have done well enough since) and his 4th at Newcastle before that again looks solid given the horses that have run since. My impression is that this trip may just be slightly too long and he may just be one of those horses that will find one or two too good at the business end in a race like this. Everaard in my eyes is a surprising favourite. Next to no solid form, generally runs in snatches and his overally profile suggests he is better in the second half of the season. Presenting Junior has one piece of form I really like behind Balbriggan where the winner has placed since and the 2nd and 4th have gone on to win. His subsequent win hasnt shown any real form yet so the strength of that run is open to debate (I think the 2nd is a solid 115 handicapper at worst) but my main concern is whether he will be as effective on this slightly softer ground as all of his best form and performances have been on good or quicker. It is only good to soft so it might not be much of an issue but his trainer has expressed concerns about GS before and whilst he has won on it, it was a dire race. He looks one to keep on side on good ground or better though. Selection Streams of Whiskey 9/2 Bet365 0.5 pts

Streams of Whiskey was well backed in the end and went off a 5/2 but jumped like a slug by the sounds of it and ended up being pulled up. I wouldnt have picked the winner if you gave me 6 goes but I was in the right area about the 2nd and 3rd. Jumps Staked: 13 Returned: 16.55 Profit: 3.55

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Some flat bets for me tomorrow but I havent got the time to go into detail. They come out best in my ratings and I will make short comments in brackets if necessary. Catterick 220 - Laylas Hero 10/1 Sky Bet - 0.5 points (blew start LTO, 2nd on wrong side of draw time before - Has bad draw again this time though) Catterick 250 - Johnny Cavagin 8/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points (top rated but bad draw) & Evanescent 13/2 Betvictor - 0.5 points (joint second rated & but not won in class) Windsor 3.30 - Bertie Moon 14/1 Bet365 - 1 point - (Looks the pick if fully fired up after short break under perfect conditions)

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Some flat bets for me tomorrow but I havent got the time to go into detail. They come out best in my ratings and I will make short comments in brackets if necessary. Catterick 220 - Laylas Hero 10/1 Sky Bet - 0.5 points (blew start LTO, 2nd on wrong side of draw time before - Has bad draw again this time though) Catterick 250 - Johnny Cavagin 8/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points (top rated but bad draw) & Evanescent 13/2 Betvictor - 0.5 points (joint second rated & but not won in class) Windsor 3.30 - Bertie Moon 14/1 Bet365 - 1 point - (Looks the pick if fully fired up after short break under perfect conditions)

Evanescent wins at 7/1 to make a small profit. I should have been putting that one up as a full stake bet as usually I dont bother with lowering it for class but at I least I still came out up. Bertie Moon ran a big race for third getting caught late in what I imagine will turn out to be quick TS time (first two were held up and there was a gap to the 3rd). Layla's Hero probably paid for trying to force it from a wide draw but potentially one to keep an eye on. Flat Staked 14.50 Returned 35 Profit 20.50

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Nottingham 3.30 - Off the Pulse 25/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points This horse comes out 2nd in my rating to the once run Gosden favourite but even so he is more than worth a go at the current odds. He ran two great races on soft, getting up late at Haydock before finding only a fellow soft ground specialist too good at Ayr. He then ran over too far at Wolverhampton (which his trainer stated after he won at Haydock) and was probably ridden too aggresively back at Haydock. The jockey for his win and second is back on board and I can see him running well if getting the breaks from stall 1.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Nottingham 3.30 - Off the Pulse 25/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points This horse comes out 2nd in my rating to the once run Gosden favourite but even so he is more than worth a go at the current odds. He ran two great races on soft, getting up late at Haydock before finding only a fellow soft ground specialist too good at Ayr. He then ran over too far at Wolverhampton (which his trainer stated after he won at Haydock) and was probably ridden too aggresively back at Haydock. The jockey for his win and second is back on board and I can see him running well if getting the breaks from stall 1.

Nowhere near today. Flat Staked 15.50 Returned 35 Profit 19.50

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No selections tomorrow.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Newmarket 1.30 - 10f Class 4 Handicap Lungarno Palace 89 Ventura Quest 89 Chain of Events 86 No win No fee 81+ Others 81 or less Im going to side with the top 2 in my list above. Lungarno Palace is one I have backed before and ran pretty well LTO but never really given enough of a chance in a race where it paid to be prominant and he has also done well closing from off the pace at Epsom the time before which is never easy to do. Conditions look set to suit and IMO is a solid favourite. Ventura Quest comes out favourably in the ratings and appears to be at his best on GS ground. It does however put me off a little that he keeps finding one or two too good but he is still worth a saver. I backed Chain of Events LTO in the same race as Lungarno Palace and he was hampered in that race and therefore has an excuse but I still would have liked to have seen a little more considering his two runs before were also a little lacklustre. Selections Lungarno Palace 9/2 Paddy Power - 1 Point Ventura Quest 6/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Wetherby 1.40 - Narcissist 16/1 BetVictor - 1 point The way I see this race is that whilst I think there are a few that could have their day in the sun and get their neck in front, there arent many that I would consider to be particularly well handicapped and capable of much more than they have shown. Horses like Lightening Rod, Red Inca, Overpriced or Knight in Purple might pop up as they are competitively waited on their best form but at the same time they are likely to find one. Of the progressive types, Sleep In First has recorded a decent quartet of wins but they have been in a lower grade and there isnt much to say he is well handicapped off this mark in a deeper contest. Emral Silk fell at the first LTO but I wasnt convinced by the level of form then and an early exit isnt going to do anything to sway that opinion. Skyfire's form is weak, Spot The Pro could end up progressing but its hard to tell on what he has shown, and Camachoice destroyed the field 8 days ago but they were an average bunch to say the least and Im not a fan of horses coming out again so quickly. This all leaves me with Narcissist who has a bit of an up and down profile but when you look a little closer, there could be some cause for optimism. Throughout the horses whole career he has appeared to hate soft ground, flopping badly every time he has encountered it but on good to soft or better he has run much better and based on his three runs on that type of surface last season he could be well handicapped with several horses running well in those races. Interestingly as well, the jockey who was on board for his two best runs last season is back in the saddle tomorrow and with the ground currently good - good to soft in places, he should have his preferred surface. At the current prices, I think he is definitely worth chancing.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Wetherby 2.15 - Mwaleshi 7/1 Betfred - 0.5 points I actually cant believe the prices available for this horse. Unless they know something I dont regarding his fitness then surely he is stonking price tomorrow? It might just be that they were keen on him unseating his rider LTO but before that his jumping has been excellent and slick and he also finds generously off the bridle. He has solid form to his name, with his win at Haydock and 2nd at Carlisle (to a horse who went on to win a G2 and also have him 6lb) looking excellent in the context of this race and his handicap mark. Even his chase debut (at this track) is working out well with the 2nd climbing the handicap ladder after winning with a degree of ease of 125 on his last start. Its the first time he has run over 20f over fences but he has placed on heavy at 20f and won twice over 18f over hurdles so I dont see it being an issue. Of the other runners: Doeslessthanme whose win at Donny is excellent form but having fallen at Aintree and flopped on his seasonal debut has something to prove. Off The Ground who has a couple of decent wins to his name down in class but flopped in the spring and also on seasonal debut. Trustan Times who is likely to want further. Silver Roque is solid but not exactly what I would call well in despite his excellent record fresh. Cedre Bleu is a nutjob and at a new stable Shadows Lengthen doesnt look up to this level.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No luck today. The two in the flat race were 3rd and 4th but less than a length off the winner and Lungarno Palace was closing at the line. Flat Staked: 17 Returned 35 Profit 18 Over the obstacles Narcissist ran a decent enough race in 3rd but was no match for the winner who had his day in the sun. Mwaleshi was a big disappointment but drifted badly so may have needed it. Worth another go IMO, maybe over 16f to start with. Jumps Staked: 14.50 Returned 16.55 Profit: 2.05

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No flat bets tomorrow and I will review the Jumps cards in the morning.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ascot 2.20 - Next Sensation 4/1 & Manyriverstocross 6/1 Boylesports (MB2) - 0.5 points each In truth the front 4 in the market are all well handicapped and I had a hard time splitting them. I do think Next Sensation is the most likely winner as his form beating Gods Own and his 4th at the Festival despite going off at a furious pace are really good solid pieces of form. I am also a sucker for a bold jumping front runner and even if he doesnt win we should be in for a spectacle! The second choice was much harder and I ruled out Claret Cloak because of his tendency to hit one at the wrong time and of the other two I just think Manyriverstocross has the scope to go a little bit further up the ladder than Bellanos. The King horse is another grand jumper and he looks to have his perfect conditions and with the pace likely to be strong, his extra stamina will come into play.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ascot 3.00 - Mountain King 6/1 William Hill (MB2) - 1 point Its hard to really assess a couple of these but I like the chances of Mountain King who ran a good race at Cheltenham first time up this season of which the form has been franked by the winner winning again since. I also think the 3rd is a solid horse too and had the selections not been very keen on his first start back he probably could have been even closer. He also has an interesting piece of form over this course and distance ad whilst he was slightly fortunate to have won the race in the end, it was still a performance that suggested he would be capable off this mark and given he was green for a lot of his runs this season, he could have a decent amount of improvement in him.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ascot 3.35 - Le Bec 11/2 William Hill (MB2) - 0.5 points I highlighted this one in my Cheltenham posts a couple of weeks ago and my thoughts on the horse havent changed. Potentially more to follow...