Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Doncaster 4.25 Shared Equity 5/1 Skybet - 1 point Athletic 25/1 Betvictor - 0.5 pts

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Both placed at Donny (well 3rd and 5th) but no return. Flat = +22

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary York - 1 point unless stated 2.10 - First Flight 10/1 @ 0.5 Boylesports 2.10 - Mahsoob - Waiting on the price 2.40 - Another Wise Kid 14/1 Corals 2.40 - Algar Lad 16/1 Paddy Power 2.40 - Tatlisu 11/1 BV 3.15 - Naadirr 5/1 B365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

York - 1 point unless stated 2.10 - First Flight 10/1 @ 0.5 Boylesports 2.10 - Mahsoob - Waiting on the price 2.40 - Another Wise Kid 14/1 Corals 2.40 - Algar Lad 16/1 Paddy Power 2.40 - Tatlisu 11/1 BV 3.15 - Naadirr 5/1 B365

2 winners on the day with Mahsoob (took the 7/2 in the end) and Algar Lad. 16 points up for the day updating my total to +38 for the flat and back on to the second level of stakes.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary York - 2 points unless stated 2.10 - Demora 10/1 Paddy Power (MB2 or 3) 2.10 - Lexington Abbey 11/1 BV 3.15 - Elm Park 4/1 @ 1 point Paddy Power 3.45 - Homage 10/1 @ 1 point BV 6 points on the line.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Nowhere near today - Flat total = +32 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary 2 points unless stated. Newbury 2.55 - Golden Steps 7/2 Corals MBH NMK 4.40 - Master of The World 6/1 Corals MBH - 1 point York 2.40 - Duke of Clarence 12/1 Corals MBH York 2.40 - Old Town Boy 12/1 Paddies - 1 point 6 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Golden steps was a close 2nd but no points scored. Flat total +26 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary 2 points unless stated: Newbury 3.45 - Night of Thunder 3/1 WH MB2 @ 1 point 3.45 - Aljamaheer 22/1 Corals MBH - 1 point EW (4 places 1/4 odds) 4.55 - Spark Plug 11/2 Betvictor 4.55 - Munaaser 13/2 Skybet - 1 point Thirsk 4.15 - Duke Cosimo 10/1 Betvictor 4.15 - Meshardal 7/1 Betvictor 4.50 - Online Alexander 8/1 Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary 2 winners with Night of Thunder and Spark Plug as well as probably being a little unlucky not to get Meshardal up as well. Small profit of 5 points today and back up to a 31 point profit on the flat.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary 2 points unless stated Ripon 3.15 - Secret Hint 5/2 BV 3.15 - Jamesbos Girl 9/1 @ 1 - Corals MBH 3.50 - Sound Advice 4/1 Navan 3.20 - Captain Cullen 16/1 Bet365 3.20 - Insalutem 8/1 @ 1 William Hill 8 points staked

[Blazing Bailey]

With Cheltenham coming up I thought I would share some of my early thoughts on the main Championship races as despite trying my hardest every year I cant help but get involved before the best week of the year!

 

I wrote some of these up a couple of days ago so the prices may be slightly different to those quoted.

 

World Hurdle - Prices with Bet365 (NRNB I think)

 

Thistlecrack 6/4

 

Vroum Vroum Mag 5/1

 

Annie Power 6/1

 

Alpha Des Obeaux 7/1

 

Cole Harden 8/1

 

Saphir De Rheu 14/1

 

Aux Ptits Sons 14/1

 

Prince of Scars 16/1

 

Kilcooley 20/1

 

Whisper 25/1

 

Not for the first time at the festival I do think that Thistlecrack is about as much of a certainty as you can get and even as a typical bigger price punter, I do think that 6/4 is still a fair price and I would back him at that price on the day. His form is rock solid, he goes well on the ground and he has now also ticked off Cheltenham form after winning at the weekend.

 

As for picking the best of the rest it does become a bit more difficult. I think it is more likely that VVM pops up in this race over Annie Power and whilst VVM is a nice mare she hasnt beaten anything of any real quality for all she has done it very easily. So yes she could win but I wouldnt want to be backing her at 5/1 and with any other trainer she would be double that.

 

The main Irish angle comes in the form of Prince of Scars and Alpha Des Obeaux. The former beat the latter at Leopardstown but that looked a rather laboured display for ADO and I would be confident that he wants better ground as opposed to POS who probably doesn’t. I still think both of them have a few lengths to find on Thistlecrack.

 

The two Nicholls horses are a bit of an unknown because SDR has been disappointing and APS hasnt been seen and would have to improve enormously (although not impossible). Likewise Whisper for Henderson has been dreadful this season so he cant be backed with confidence either.

 

Kilcooley won well on his reappearance but he beat a non-staying Rock on Ruby and that form has to be dubious despite the impressive figures.

 

That leaves me with Cole Harden who it would be fair to say has run below himself this season. However his clever trainer has said all along that he would be trained with one day in mind and the ground would have been a negative on both starts along with the trip being short enough the last time as well. There is still enough juice in his price and I suspect that on the day he will get bigger again.

 

Good to Soft

 

1. Thistlecrack

2. Cole Harden

3. Alpha Des Obeaux

 

Soft ground or worse

 

1. Thistlecrack

2. Prince of Scars

3. Alpha Des Obeaux

 

As a little update on this, I would say that if you fancy Thistlecrack then you should probably get on now as there is a strong possibility that neither Rich Ricci horse turns up in this race and if so Thistlecrack will be bordering on being evens or shorter.

[Blazing Bailey]

Champion Chase (prices from BET365)

 

Un De Sceaux 8/11

 

Sprinter Sacre 9/2

 

Dodging Bullets 9/1

 

Sire De Grugy 12/1

 

Special Tiara 14/1

 

Felix Younger 14/1

 

Traffic Fluide 14/1

 

Sizing Granite 25/1

 

Gods Own 33/1

 

Somersby 33/1

 

The only threat I can see to Un De Sceaux is the fences. He jumps really well on the whole but given how quickly he travels and how aggressively he jumps, it doesn’t take a great deal to send him tumbling. There was a small question mark over how much he had over the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy but he showed that it was quite a lot when he beat the latter at Ascot. When you then consider that Special Tiara and Traffic Fluide both have similar form lines to SDG as well it really does seem to be a race that we need to find the 2^nd and 3^rd and I do think that it will come from the horses already mentioned meaning that I need to look at the w/out market as the odds are short enough already. Dodging Bullets could also make his mark however he has enough questions to answer from a year off and also off the back of the worst Champion Chase win in many a year.

 

Sprinter Sacre 5/2

 

Sire De Grugy 6/1

 

Special Tiara 7/1

 

Traffic Fluide 7/1

 

My immediate thoughts are that SDG will be worse off with ST, SS and TF due to the likely good to soft ground because SDG is at his best on deeper whereas all of the others are at their best on better ground. Im not sure that ST is going to be at his best around Cheltenham as upon reflection he should have won this race last season but he couldn’t find enough at the business end and with UDS to keep him company up front I think that will put paid to his chances. TF is an interesting one and also falls into a form line with Sizing Granite who seems to have gone off the rails and Gods Own who in fairness ran a stormer last year behind UDS. The Ryannair is being flirted with by TF connections so that puts me off at this stage but he looks an improved horse this year and by all accounts he will come on a tonne for his re-appearance. He would probably be my idea of a bet at this stage in the without market given the prices. I will also drop Gods Own into this conversation as the more I look at him the more I think he could be an interesting EW contender assuming the ground stays on the good side.

 

Good to soft or better:

 

1. Un De Sceaux

2. Traffic Fluide

3. Gods Own

 

Soft or worse:

 

1. Un De Sceaux

2. Sire De Grugy

3. Sprinter Sacre

 

As a further note on this one, the front running battle between UDS and Special Tiara could have an interesting impact on how the race develops because it will be the first time anything will have tried to get upsides UDS and we simply dont know whether that will have an effect on the horses performance. I dont think it will have an effect however UDS is a short price and its an angle to use to help take him on if you are looking for one.

 

[Blazing Bailey]

Champion Hurdle (prices taken from Bet365)

 

Faugheen 1/3

As much as I would love to find an angle to get this one beaten, I simply can’t. His last performance was devastating and there isn’t anything else in the field that will get close to him. He does clout a couple but it doesn’t seem to slow his momentum in anyway. Whilst I wouldn’t back him myself at the price, he is probably worth it and if you are having a multiple bet at the festival he has the probably the banker of the 4 days.

 

Artic Fire 8/1

We know that Artic Fire is a good horse and can run to a reasonable standard behind Faugheen I can’t see him reversing that form under any circumstances however he is the obvious candidate to finish 2^nd as he has been doing a good job of it so far in his career. The quicker they go up front the better and with Faugheen, Nicholls Canyon, possibly Top Notch and also Identity Theif in the line-up, I can’t see it being slowly run, so again that should play into hands.

 

Nichols Canyon 10/1

I actually fancied this horse to give Faugheen a real run for his money last time but it seemed clear to me that the race against Identity Thief a few weeks earlier had taken its toll and that was later alluded to by the trainer of Identity Thief when explaining his decision not to also run in the same race. Its hard to see if he would have got close to Faugheen given how well that one did run but now he has had two tough races and whilst it may be foolish to underestimate the ability of Willie Mullins to freshen him up once more, I am concerned that it will have left enough of a mark and jeopardised any chance he has here.

 

Peace & Co 14/1

Its hard to know what to make of this horse until he confirms his well-being this weekend, however we know he is a classy horse and has festival form after winning the Triumph last year. We know that both he and Top Notch are closely rated based on that form and we also know that Top Notch is closely rated to Identity Thief and by extension Nichols Canyon based on the Fighting Fifth and Irish form. Whilst he has plenty of form on soft, I do think he would be better suited by good ground (or at least better than soft) whereas I believe Top Notch and Identity Thief may be best suited by a bit more give in the ground.

 

Identity Thief 14/1

This horse has improved bundles this year and his win and 2^nd on his last two starts give him a place chance in this. I have covered most of the form angles, but being a fresher horse than NC, if it were to come up on the softer side of good, preferably genuinely soft ground then he would be of definite interest.

Camping Ground 16

I don’t think this horse is short of speed so it was a surprise to see him try 24f and the drop back in trip with an aggressive ride would be an interesting proposition however 16f on quick ground would be a big concern, but on soft ground then I could see a big run. He has enough to prove at these prices given the odds of some of those ahead of him with a better chance.

 

The New One 20

There isn’t much I really need to right here. He will be there or thereabouts and will be challenging for a place but it will be a tough ask for him to beat a couple of these and his jumping will be a big hindrance once more.

 

My Tent of Yours 25

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Henderson somehow gets him back to 100% for March then he has a chance however I don’t fancy the chances of that.

 

Top Notch 33

Its not guaranteed that this horse will run here as of yet but if you ignore his last run (trying 20f on bad ground) then you can give his horse a big shout of some place money given the form already mentioned with NC, IT and P&C. I would give this horse a big priced place shout on soft ground.

 

Good or Good to Soft

1. Faugheen

2. Artic Fire

3. Peace & Co

Soft or worse

1. Faugheen

2. Identity Thief

3. Top Notch

 

[Blazing Bailey]

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Vautour 4

Don Cossack 9/2

Djakadam 5/1

Don Poli 6/1

Cue Card 6/1

Road to Riches 12/1

Smad Place 12/1

 

I have left the market to these runners as I believe these are the only horses who have a serious chance of winning. Unlike some of the other championship races at the festival there isn’t a short priced favourite so I will be looking to back the winner outright.

 

It’s hard to work out whether Vautour did or didn’t stay in the King George when Cue Card pipped him at the line. I personally don’t think it was stamina that did for him that day, however, I still can’t be confident that he will stay the Gold Cup trip. Given his price and given that it’s a big and important doubt, I will probably avoid him at this stage but going left handed, and being back at Cheltenham are both massive pluses for this horse and he has always been below par before producing a spectacular display on the big day so I certainly wouldn’t want to be laying him at current prices either. The biggest question mark over him at this stage is whether he goes to this race. He would p*** up in the Ryanair but connections seem intent on running in the flagship event.

 

Cue Card has been spectacular this season and he would be a crowd favourite were he to win here. I think this horse is a little overlooked in this market and I can’t see any reason as to why he wouldn’t be in the mix coming to the last.

 

Don Cossack was an unlucky faller in the Kind George and would have gone very close or more or less even won had he not gone down. Again I cannot see anything that would put me off him. He jumps well enough on the whole, travels well and finds. Ground won’t be an issue the price seems fair as well.

 

Djakadam now has to have a little question mark over him. I don’t like backing horses after a fall in general but especially not over the same C&D and even more so when they pick up a nasty (albeit superficial) injury. Before that fall there was no reason why he couldn’t win but now there is enough doubt for me to leave him alone.

 

Don Poli is a lovable rogue. A bit like Big Bucks before him, he just does enough to win the race and no more. His currently level of form needs to be stepped up on to make him the winner of this race but that is entirely possible given his age and the way he races. Smad Place will give him a target to aim at and I think that is a challenge he will relish. He jumps well and will stay the trip twice.

 

Road to Riches was third in this race last year however his participation in this year’s contest is still in doubt as the Ryanair is also under consideration. Last season, the softening ground was probably against him whereas it was a bonus to the winner and second and on the better ground I could have seen him reverse that form (albeit I am pocket talking here!). Unfortunately I don’t think he will go down the Gold Cup route but on good ground he would have a great chance and there certainly shouldn’t be a 7pt difference between him and Djakadam.

 

Finally Smad Place announced himself on the scene this weekend, dispatching Many Clouds on softer ground that ideal. I can see this form being overlooked but I think it looks very favourable to him and given how Coneygree won the race last year, you could see Smad Place doing a similar thing. I suspect he may fall just short but he is a different horse when going from the front and he will put Vautour under pressure all the way. I could see him being a win to nothing horse in that he will even win or fall out of the back of your telly.

 

Good to soft or better

1. Don Cossack

2. Cue Card

3. Road to Riches

 

Soft or worse

1. Don Cossack

2. Cue Card

3. Don Poli

[Blazing Bailey]

Thats all I have for now but I will be looking to review a couple more races, mainly the novices over the next few days.

I will be leaving the Ryannair alone though as even Mystic Meg couldn't predict what will turn up in that race!

[Blazing Bailey]

Supreme Novice Hurdle

 

Min 11/8

Altior 6/1

Buveur D'Air 7/1

Yorkhill 8/1

Tombstone 12/1

Bellshill 16/1

Moon Racer 20/1

Supasundae 20/1

Coney Island 20/1

Modus 25/1

Long Dog 25/1

Silver Concorde 25/1

Winter Escape 25/1

North Hill Harvey 25/1

A Toi Phil 25/1

 

Out of this market I am going to rule out North Hill Harvey and A Toi Phil as their trainers have suggested the Neptune the most likely target, I am ruling out Winter Escape, Silver Concorde, Modus, Coney Island and Supasundae as they havent shown enough hurdling as of yet and I am also ruling out Moon Racer given his troubles.

 

Starting at the front Min looks a bit decent! I rate him better than Douvan at this stage and given the Irish horses tend to improve on ratings when they head to Cheltenham it will take a good one to beat him. I like the way he jumps as well and the ground wont make a difference to him. I suspect he will run to around 160 on the day.

 

Altior is very battled hardened and whilst he has raced to 154 on my figures I do not expect him to improve for a return to Cheltenham. I would be a little cautious with him as well as he has only beaten a couple of modest hurdlers by small amounts. The Kempton run is the intriguing one and I don’t know where it came from. As a general rule I dont really fancy horses that show an increased level of form at Kempton, especially when you are reviewing a race at Cheltenham.

 

Buveur D'Air was a horse that really caught my eye at Newbury when winning his first hurdles start with ease, powering away in the straight. I had an eye on him before that race based on his second at the same track behind Barters Hill in a bumper for obvious reasons. I would have liked him to step up on that form when running at Huntingdon and in fairness it would have been hard for him to show too much but he is due to run again shortly and I think that will show us more. If he runs anywhere near 150 it puts him firmly into the picture and I suspect a strongly run race will suit him down to the ground.

 

Given what has happened in Ireland today I find it very hard to know what Mullins is going to do with Bellshill or Yorkhill. I suspect the latter will go to the Supreme but either way I dont see them being good enough at the festival. Bellshill was the better option leading into todays race however I cant see him going anywhere near the Surpreme.

 

The other two of note are Longdog and Tombstone. I am not really a fan of Longdog as whilst he has performed credibly on the figures, he visually hasnt been as impressive and the fact that Tombstone couldn’t beat him (albeit he was a little unlucky), it doesn’t strike me as Supreme quality form. Plenty of good judges have mentioned him as well now and I think that any price appeal he did have has well and truly gone. He probably should have won today as well and given I didnt even factor the winner into my assessment (and again its all linked to the Longdog form), I dont think they will be good enough.

 

Regardless of ground (assuming it isn’t bottomless)

 

1. Min

2. Buveur D'Air

 

 

 

[BillyHills]

Nice one mate, welcome back

[Blazing Bailey]

On 06/02/2016, 18:46:38, BillyHills said:

Nice one mate, welcome back

Thanks BH! With Cheltenham coming up I could resist coming back and putting my two pennies worth across.

The site is looking really good since I was last in here as well.

[Blazing Bailey]

Arkle Novice Chase

 

Douvan 170+

L'Ami Serge 156

Vaniteux 162+

Ar Mad 164

Arzal 160

Ttebbob 156+

 

I am going to set this race a little differently. The above figures are the RPR of the best performances of the horses previous races they have contested and I have added and + sign for any horse that I would expect an improvement on their previous form if they were to run at the festival. You would expect that as novices that they all would however looking at previous festivals, typically the Irish novices improve and the UK horses stay roughly the same, especially over hurdles but it is also considerable enough over fences too. I would generally attribute this to encountering better ground that would normally be expected but with the Ricci runners you can also add that they will only be fully prepared come the day. The only other explanation I can think of would be that the RPR analyst simply isn’t as good at assessing Irish form as they are the UK form.

 

Either way, you can look at these ratings and see that as long as Douvan avoids putting in a poor jump (which he has shown the potential to do so, albeit not so much on his last start) then he should really be a comfortable winner. He has achieved 170 already and he will improve for the better ground and improve in fitness terms come the day. I think he could beat UDS if he turned up in the Champion Chase. With this in mind I will look at the other markets available.

 

I have taken the following prices from Bet365's w/out market:

 

L'Ami Serge 5/2

Vaniteux 3/1

Ar Mad 6/1

Arzal No prices

Ttebbob 33/1

 

On the whole I have not been convinced by L'Ami Serge over fences. I fail to see why he is shorter than stablemate Vaniteux and I think given how Vaniteux has run so far, I think he could improve for the greater stamina test that Cheltenham will provide and I was quite taken by how well he coped with the speed test raised by Arzal at Doncaster and Ar Mad the time before. Shaking off Douvan will be an altogether different test but on the whole he is a very good jumper (his debut was foot perfect) and there is no reason why he shouldn’t run a very good race.

 

Ar Mad is a tricky one to assess. He did jump to his right on chase debut but that didnt seem to be an issue over hurdles. Gary Moore was adamant that he wouldn’t be going to Cheltenham but now they are going to get him out again left handed to see whether it happens again. Without meaning to be slanderous, it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a ruse to keep his price up and it will be interesting to see what happens to his price for this race just before he starts on his next race and I would imagine he will be nibbled at along the way as well. There really isnt much between him and Vaniteux however I would expect the latter to reverse the form at Cheltenham based on the stamina aspect but having said that Ar Mad did stay further over hurdles too. I think I would probably keep them both on side.

 

There are no prices about for Arzal so running here looks unlikely which I think is a smart move as I think Aintree would suit him down to the ground.

The other outsider I have an eye on is Ttebbob because I was really taken by his first two chase starts only for him to run a stinker behind Douvan on his third. It could either be that the race fell apart and therefore Douvan is potentially overestimated or it could be that Douvan put them out of their comfort zones and with Ttebbob being a stayer over hurdles it could just be that he couldnt lay up with him but I would be prepared to forgive that run and give him another chance at the festival. I wouldnt get involved at this stage as I havent heard anything about him since that run and whether he is healthy. He wasnt afforded much of a rest between his second and third start so that too could be a reason (and I know that is what his jockey thinks – albeit I would be wary of listening to jockeys as they arent always the most reliable). He is due out soon so I might have an AP nibble now because if he hacks up his price will shorten.

 

Overall I don’t see anything beating Douvan but I am keen on Vaniteux, Ar Mad and Ttebbob in either the EW market or without market but I will wait until the last two have their final prep runs before I get properly involved.

 

EDIT 14/02/16

Following Ttebbob's performance today there is no way he will be a live Arkle contender if he even goes now. He will be better on better ground than he encountered today but he doesn't look the same horse any more and that run will again take a lot out of him.

Edited February 14, 2016 by Blazing Bailey

[Blazing Bailey]

Neptune Novice Hurdle

 

Yanworth 160+

Yorkhill 152+

A Toi Phil 151+

Long Dog 151

OO Seven 148

Shantou Village 147+

Bellshill 147

Bleu Et Rouge 146

Tombstone 145

Charbel 145

North Hill Harvey 139+

 

Yet another shortie at the top of the market but at least this time it isnt Mullins! I was really taken by Yanworth's run at Cheltenham on ground he wouldn’t have necessarily enjoyed. They went a good pace and he still cruised through the race on the bridle beating a solid field. I think there is more to come at this trip on better ground too and I struggle to see which horse can improve enough to beat him.

I have already covered Yorkhill lightly in the Surpreme but it seems as if his price is shortening for this race and indeed he is a shorter price than Bellshill who was the most likely candidate for this race before the weekend. I really dont know what to make of the Sandown form, as I didnt think he would like the ground but his trainer said he dealt with it really well but at the same time he made really hard work of the finish considering how well he travelled. I do expect him to be better for the better ground which is why I have given him a plus and the better ground may see him finish his race better but Im not convinced just yet.

I thought A Toi Phil ran really well last time out beating a solid if unspectacular sort. Mullins reported he was broken in quite late in life and his first couple of runs suggested he was a little bit more immature having run out on one occasion. That would give me a slight concern at Cheltenham however he looks a big improver and would probably be my pick of the Mullins yard. I would be a little concerned about the ground as he handles bad ground well and if it was quite quick it may not what he ideally wants. I think he has the possibility to improve the most of the main protagonists.

As I mentioned in the Supreme, I still dont like the Longdog, Tombstone, Bleu et Rouge form line. Longdog is unlikely to improve any further having already had 7 runs over hurdles, Tombstone isnt guarenteed to improve for the better ground and Bleu et Rouge less so (his sire has a 50% strike rate on heavy but a 10% strike rate on good albeit from a small sample size). The latter improved to win at the weekend but I am still not sure it is enough to bring him into this picture unless it turns testing on the day.

OO Seven appears to have been campaigned around his best trip so far so I think he will improve should he run in this. Henderson has suggested this trip at Cheltenham would be the most likely but he would appear to be a little bit short of the main protagonists. He is the type of horse I can see running well to be 3^rd or maybe just outside the places but I can't see him troubling Yanworth or any horse that can get close to him.

Shantou Village could be the possible forgotten horse. My impression before the race behind Yanworth was that he would hate the ground but then he seemed to do well enough and came with a run at the top of the hill but was made to look slow by Yanworth making me think that a longer trip would suit. However after re-assessing, I wonder if it was just the ground that stopped him giving Yanworth a bit more of a race. He is by Shantou (who would have thought!) so whilst his sire had won races on soft and his progeny record on soft ground is respectable, it is better on quicker going and his best performances as a race horse were on good or better. It will obviously be difficult to reverse the form with Yanworth but I wouldnt back against him being the next horse to follow him home and because of the nature of that defeat, his price has inflated quite attractively, especially if you watch back his win at Cheltenham on good ground early in the year.

Charbel ran well at the weekend as well and showed that he is a decent horse but he couldnt get Yanworth off the bridle back at Ascot and he may have been a little flattered by his winning margin LTO. He is entered in both this and the Supreme but I would be less keen on him in this given he hasnt ran over this trip as yet.

North Hill Harvey awould need to improve a lot to feature in this. I quite fancy to improve a chunk but even so I cant see them being good enough to get seriously involved.

Overall Yanworth would be my main pick in the outright win market, or he would at least be another for my mug acca, but I would look to keep A Toi Phil (12s) and Shantou Village (14s) onside especially once we have an idea of the likely ground conditions.

 

 

[Blazing Bailey]

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

 

Barters Hill 154+

Up For Review 151

A Toi Phil 151+

Thomas Hobson 148

Shantou Village 147+

Gangster 147+

Champers on Ice 145

Duke Des Champs 142+

Ballydine 141

Label Des Obeaux 139

 

This race is still a bit of a mess at this stage and its difficult to know exactly who is going to go where. Out of the above, I doubt Thomas Hobson will stay, A Toi Phil is more than likely Neptune bound and given connections comments about Aintree I dont think Label Des Obeaux will go to Cheltenham.

Barters Hill is currently top of the pile and rightly so based on form. He is a tough horse to pass and many have tried but not succeeded and those type of horses never excel themselves on ratings as they only do what they have to and therefore he could be far better than he has shown. He does seem to be a couple of screws short as well after running wide and green at Newbury and not jumping very well at Donny. What impressed me about that performance is that he went head to head with a good horse in Up For Review, beat him off and then had enough to still beat a solid and equally game horse in Ballydine. He will be a tough not to crack if any horse tries to take him on eye ball to eye ball up the hill.

Up For Review looked to run the same type of race against Barters Hill as he did when beating Jetstream Jack the time before but couldnt keep it going up the straight. It could be that he had a problem and it was unlikely to be his true running but at the same time it could have been the Barters Hill experience that caused that. Mullins reported last season that he “went over the top very quickly” last season and they were worried about running before Cheltenham and I think he would be a risky selection now especially as he isnt a particularly big price.

I have written about Shantou Village for the Neptune and my opinion is more or less the same as it would be in this race. I dont necessarily know if it was ground or trip that did for him behind Yanworth but connections are fairly certain he will stay so whilst I wouldnt back him until his target is known, I would certainly be interested by him.

The one that probably interests me the most at this stage with this target more or less confirmed is Gangster of Willie Mullins/Gigginstown. Ground conditions will be fine, he has won over the trip and aside from a blip at Galway he has been steadily progressive. The one factor about this horse that really stands out to me is that he has a pretty potent turn of foot for a stayer which is exactly what you will need to beat a bully like Barters Hill. You wont outstay Barters Hill so the big asset that Gangster will have is that he has may have enough of a change of gear to use to great effect late in the race. On the other hand, given the speed he has it might work against him in that he might not stay on up the hill as well as others but you would think that if he could travel on the heels of Barters Hill, he could almost sneak past him without giving him enough time to react and claw the ground back. What's more is that he is a very backable price and I think it is too big at around 16s.

This leaves me with two other horses that I would describe as solid. I mentioned Ballydine earlier and he ran a big race alongside Barters Hill and he is a game ole horse. He is a previous placed point to point horse and he has been commented as big and gangly so chasing will ultimately be his game and anything he picks up on the way over hurdles is a bonus. I am sure he will run a big race for connections and may just catch the frame but I don’t think he is good enough to win. The other horse in a similar category, especially on testing ground would be Champers on Ice. He is another tough individual and will give his all but he has already proven that he is just below the top notchers but if it becomes a slog he wont be stopping up the hill and as we saw last year a lot of horses will cry off if it does become difficult and wont finish whereas he will.

[Blazing Bailey]

Triumph Novice Hurdle

 

Fixe Le Kap 147

Footpad 140

Sceau Royal 137

Allblak Des Places 137

Clan Des Obeaux 136+

Ivanovich Gorbatov 135+

Gibralfaro 135+

Connetable 135

Who Dares Wins 135+

Protek Des Flos 135+

Indietir 135+ (in France)

 

This market has been shaken up massively on the last two weekends with trials at Cheltenham and Leopardstown.

I am actually quite a fan of Fixe Le Kap. He jumps really nicely out in front and ground out his UK debut really nicely in a good race from Tommy Silver and Kasakh Noir who will re-oppose. He looked to have plenty left at the finish too on that day as he battled with the Nicholls horse and both have won again since and will more than likely re-oppose in this race. I wouldnt be expecting him to improve enormously for this race and the question is more to do with whether one will improve enough to beat him. The one worry I would have with this horse is the ground. He clearly loves it soft and I doubt good to soft will pose too much of a worry, but anything quicker would be a concern. Nicky Henderson is a bit of a worrier so he wouldnt be an AP play for me because he could easily pull him out on the day of the race because of the ground.

I really dont know what to make of the Irish runners in this. Footpad is the highest rated and he won well enough at the weekend however I really cant work out that form. Allblak Des Places looks like a solid horse and nothing more. He was only beaten by a couple of lengths in this and there still isnt an explanation that I can find for his disappointing run two starts before where he ran a very similar race but found nothing. I am not sure I can be having that race as an indicator for this and I think the pace may have been a little strong and they collapsed up front. I think Lets Dance may be the one to take out of the race but again I dont see her winning at Cheltenham.

Who knows what to really make of Ivanovich Gorbatov now. On his debut he did everything pretty much perfectly. His jumping was accurate, he quickened nicely and then put the raise to bed from a decent sort with relative ease. The time wasn’t great but it wasnt particularly slow either. I wonder whether his flat speed was shown to greater effect in that race but in truth he didnt do anything near as well on his second jumps start. If you got on this horse immediately after his latest defeat at Leopardstown then fair play as there was some double figures available I believe however he is too short now with such a big question to answer.

Sceau Royal looks another solid horse that shouldnt be far away but I dont see him improving as much as some of the others and the two races he has won well were weak ones. I can see him putting up good show but I think he is vulnerable from a win perspective. I would put Connetable in the same type of bracket and probably Gibralfaro, albeit I think there may be more improvement in the latter.

The UK trial for this race threw up an interesting result of which I have seen a few interpretations. My own interpretation is that Clan Des Obeaux probably would have won had Twiston-Davies committed to him earlier down the straight, albeit Protek Des Flos wouldnt have been far away either given how well he stayed. I haven’t really been convinced by Who Dares Wins so I was hoping to see him a bit further away however I think he would have been had Clan Des Obeaux surged on. Clan Des Obeaux really impressed me at Newbury and watching that race back again today, the way he powers away after an untidy jump at the last is really impressive. I have heard since that Twiston-Davies really rates the horse and I just cant help but think that they had it won once edging away from Who Dares Wins whilst on the bridle and a combination of the sticky ground, the Cheltenham hill and a sloppy jump at the last left him flat footed and didn’t allow him to lengthen away as he had at Newbury. Now looking forward to the festival, both he and the winner arent going to be sure to improve for the better ground. Even though Protek Des Flos had his ears pricked and had more to come once getting to the front, I can't help but think that he was only still in the race at that point because of the deep ground. If we expect much better ground come Gold Cup day then I could see him become badly outpaced and maybe only making late gains. Nicholls has already expressed concerns about quick ground for Clan Des Obeaux so like Fixe Le Kap, it isnt a given that he will run, but I expect good to soft ground will be fine and I can see him running a bold race. As for the other two, its hard to know what to expect from Consult De Thaix and I would put him in the same category as Who Dares Wins in that I just dont think he will be good enough and he was probably flattered to be as close to the 2^nd and slightly unfortunate to find a winner enjoying his ideal conditions at that trip. I would be interested to know if anyone else has a view on this trial?

Finally Indietir ran to a good mark in France and it would be interesting to see if Skelton gets this horse into a prep race somewhere first however he isnt entered anywhere else as yet.

Overall the main two I am interested in are Fixe Le Kap and Clan Des Obeaux but their participation is very much ground dependent, they are both horses I will leave until closer to the time. I am also a fan of Ivanovich Gorbatov based on that first hurdles run however I wouldnt like to take the price currently on offer.

( I have just watched the UK trial again and still cant believe Twiston-Davies doesnt press the button running towards the last flight!)

[Blazing Bailey]

On Fri Feb 05 2016 00:09:36 GMT+0000, Blazing Bailey said:

Champion Hurdle (prices taken from Bet365)

 

Faugheen 1/3

As much as I would love to find an angle to get this one beaten, I simply can’t. His last performance was devastating and there isn’t anything else in the field that will get close to him. He does clout a couple but it doesn’t seem to slow his momentum in anyway. Whilst I wouldn’t back him myself at the price, he is probably worth it and if you are having a multiple bet at the festival he has the probably the banker of the 4 days.

 

Artic Fire 8/1

We know that Artic Fire is a good horse and can run to a reasonable standard behind Faugheen I can’t see him reversing that form under any circumstances however he is the obvious candidate to finish 2^nd as he has been doing a good job of it so far in his career. The quicker they go up front the better and with Faugheen, Nicholls Canyon, possibly Top Notch and also Identity Theif in the line-up, I can’t see it being slowly run, so again that should play into hands.

 

Nichols Canyon 10/1

I actually fancied this horse to give Faugheen a real run for his money last time but it seemed clear to me that the race against Identity Thief a few weeks earlier had taken its toll and that was later alluded to by the trainer of Identity Thief when explaining his decision not to also run in the same race. Its hard to see if he would have got close to Faugheen given how well that one did run but now he has had two tough races and whilst it may be foolish to underestimate the ability of Willie Mullins to freshen him up once more, I am concerned that it will have left enough of a mark and jeopardised any chance he has here.

 

Peace & Co 14/1

Its hard to know what to make of this horse until he confirms his well-being this weekend, however we know he is a classy horse and has festival form after winning the Triumph last year. We know that both he and Top Notch are closely rated based on that form and we also know that Top Notch is closely rated to Identity Thief and by extension Nichols Canyon based on the Fighting Fifth and Irish form. Whilst he has plenty of form on soft, I do think he would be better suited by good ground (or at least better than soft) whereas I believe Top Notch and Identity Thief may be best suited by a bit more give in the ground.

 

Identity Thief 14/1

This horse has improved bundles this year and his win and 2^nd on his last two starts give him a place chance in this. I have covered most of the form angles, but being a fresher horse than NC, if it were to come up on the softer side of good, preferably genuinely soft ground then he would be of definite interest.

Camping Ground 16

I don’t think this horse is short of speed so it was a surprise to see him try 24f and the drop back in trip with an aggressive ride would be an interesting proposition however 16f on quick ground would be a big concern, but on soft ground then I could see a big run. He has enough to prove at these prices given the odds of some of those ahead of him with a better chance.

 

The New One 20

There isn’t much I really need to right here. He will be there or thereabouts and will be challenging for a place but it will be a tough ask for him to beat a couple of these and his jumping will be a big hindrance once more.

 

My Tent of Yours 25

Your guess is as good as mine here. If Henderson somehow gets him back to 100% for March then he has a chance however I don’t fancy the chances of that.

 

Top Notch 33

Its not guaranteed that this horse will run here as of yet but if you ignore his last run (trying 20f on bad ground) then you can give his horse a big shout of some place money given the form already mentioned with NC, IT and P&C. I would give this horse a big priced place shout on soft ground.

 

Good or Good to Soft

1. Faugheen

2. Artic Fire

3. Peace & Co

Soft or worse

1. Faugheen

2. Identity Thief

3. Top Notch

 

Further to additional information regarding Identity Thief's ground preference and Peace & Co's recent shocker, I think I would now be much more inclined to back the former in the without or EW markets. Artic Fire is short enough and I am struggling to see where the threat comes from. 

[Blazing Bailey]

On Mon Feb 08 2016 00:24:16 GMT+0000, Blazing Bailey said:

Arkle Novice Chase

 

Douvan 170+

L'Ami Serge 156

Vaniteux 162+

Ar Mad 164

Arzal 160

Ttebbob 156+

 

I am going to set this race a little differently. The above figures are the RPR of the best performances of the horses previous races they have contested and I have added and + sign for any horse that I would expect an improvement on their previous form if they were to run at the festival. You would expect that as novices that they all would however looking at previous festivals, typically the Irish novices improve and the UK horses stay roughly the same, especially over hurdles but it is also considerable enough over fences too. I would generally attribute this to encountering better ground that would normally be expected but with the Ricci runners you can also add that they will only be fully prepared come the day. The only other explanation I can think of would be that the RPR analyst simply isn’t as good at assessing Irish form as they are the UK form.

 

Either way, you can look at these ratings and see that as long as Douvan avoids putting in a poor jump (which he has shown the potential to do so, albeit not so much on his last start) then he should really be a comfortable winner. He has achieved 170 already and he will improve for the better ground and improve in fitness terms come the day. I think he could beat UDS if he turned up in the Champion Chase. With this in mind I will look at the other markets available.

 

I have taken the following prices from Bet365's w/out market:

 

L'Ami Serge 5/2

Vaniteux 3/1

Ar Mad 6/1

Arzal No prices

Ttebbob 33/1

 

On the whole I have not been convinced by L'Ami Serge over fences. I fail to see why he is shorter than stablemate Vaniteux and I think given how Vaniteux has run so far, I think he could improve for the greater stamina test that Cheltenham will provide and I was quite taken by how well he coped with the speed test raised by Arzal at Doncaster and Ar Mad the time before. Shaking off Douvan will be an altogether different test but on the whole he is a very good jumper (his debut was foot perfect) and there is no reason why he shouldn’t run a very good race.

 

Ar Mad is a tricky one to assess. He did jump to his right on chase debut but that didnt seem to be an issue over hurdles. Gary Moore was adamant that he wouldn’t be going to Cheltenham but now they are going to get him out again left handed to see whether it happens again. Without meaning to be slanderous, it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a ruse to keep his price up and it will be interesting to see what happens to his price for this race just before he starts on his next race and I would imagine he will be nibbled at along the way as well. There really isnt much between him and Vaniteux however I would expect the latter to reverse the form at Cheltenham based on the stamina aspect but having said that Ar Mad did stay further over hurdles too. I think I would probably keep them both on side.

 

There are no prices about for Arzal so running here looks unlikely which I think is a smart move as I think Aintree would suit him down to the ground.

The other outsider I have an eye on is Ttebbob because I was really taken by his first two chase starts only for him to run a stinker behind Douvan on his third. It could either be that the race fell apart and therefore Douvan is potentially overestimated or it could be that Douvan put them out of their comfort zones and with Ttebbob being a stayer over hurdles it could just be that he couldnt lay up with him but I would be prepared to forgive that run and give him another chance at the festival. I wouldnt get involved at this stage as I havent heard anything about him since that run and whether he is healthy. He wasnt afforded much of a rest between his second and third start so that too could be a reason (and I know that is what his jockey thinks – albeit I would be wary of listening to jockeys as they arent always the most reliable). He is due out soon so I might have an AP nibble now because if he hacks up his price will shorten.

 

Overall I don’t see anything beating Douvan but I am keen on Vaniteux, Ar Mad and Ttebbob in either the EW market or without market but I will wait until the last two have their final prep runs before I get properly involved.

 

EDIT 14/02/16

Following Ttebbob's performance today there is no way he will be a live Arkle contender if he even goes now. He will be better on better ground than he encountered today but he doesn't look the same horse any more and that run will again take a lot out of him.

Following both Ttebbob and Ar Mad injury I can't see who can trouble the front two in the market. I got on both Ar Mad and Vaniteux so whilst the former is now dead money at least the latter's new position in the market leaves me in a healthy position. 

[Blazing Bailey]

RSA Novice Chase

 

No More Heroes 163+ 5/2

More of That 162+ 4/1

Blaklion 162 12/1

Seeyouatmidnight 161 12/1

Black Hercules 159 25/1

Southfield Royale 158 25/1

Drumacoo 155+ 33/1

 

Its safe to say looking at the ratings and the odds that the market has things just about right.

 

No More Heroes is a decent favourite and I wouldnt like to be laying him but at the same time he doesnt represent value at this stage either given how tightly grouped they are. He does everything right seemingly and I would expect him to improve a little more on the day.

 

More of That is generally from a stable that Im not too keen on however the owner and trainer have a good record at the festival and he is the world hurdle winner from a couple of years ago. He should improve for the step up in trip and he has shown that he is effective on good through to soft ground. I think he probably should be a little shorter but not by enough to make him a betting proposition.

 

Blaklion is a really solid horse. He is a strong stayer at 3 miles and he will go on various ground types. He will be better on soft, compared to others so that would be a bonus for him. I wouldnt expect him to improve much for the day and with that in mind I think he is probably going to struggle to win, however he would be a solid EW contender especially as he has proven himself at the course and at this distance. I think 12/1 would be a solid bet at this stage, especially if others start dropping out.

 

Seeyouatmidnight probably isnt much of an antepost bet as he is always likely to stay off the radar due to connections. He ran pretty well until 2 or 3 out in last years World Hurdle on good ground and whilst he can handle a better surface, he is undoubtedly better on bad ground. He would be a bet on the day, certainly EW and certainly on soft or worse.

 

Black Hercules is probably bound for the 4 miler but he wouldnt be out of the running for this. I am not a fan of backing one after a fall and I think there must be reasonable doubts about the ground so with all of those doubts he isnt backable for this race at the moment.

 

Southfield Royale has run to a pretty decent level of form behind Tea for Two who was disappointing dropped back in trip at Sandown, which all in all wasn’t unsurprising. I wouldnt dismiss that form but again he has a little to find with the principals and I doubt he will improve massively for Cheltenham.

 

The one dark horse in this list is Drumacoo who routed the opposition on his only chase start. I like the horse and I like the connections but I am surprised they havent got another run into him and that is a big negative in my book. I dont know whether he has had an issue or whether this was just the plan but surely such inexperience will count against him, however on the same hand, it does mean that he is potentially open to a lot of improvement. Again I cant see him getting much shorter ahead of the day so he isnt one to take a price on yet.

[Blazing Bailey]

Drumacoo is entered tomorrow for anyone who is intested and this race will show what level of form he achieved last time as he is up against another solid horse in Onenightinvienna. He wasnt entered anywhere when I did look which is typical!

[Blazing Bailey]

Just had a look at the Cross Country market for the first time and surely Any Currency is way too big at 10/1?

Admittedly he had a blip last time but he has frequently gone close in this and similar races so clearly goes well at the track which is a massive bonus in a race such as this. Josies Orders is clearly a horse on the up so is the worthy favourite with the expectation of more to come however it would be a surprise if Balthazar King is the same horse as he was. Sire Collonges has shown to be a notch below the best in this discipline and some of the newcomers may take to this test but history tells us that it is unlikely. I could see him going off much shorter on the day.

Edited February 23, 2016 by Blazing Bailey

[Blazing Bailey]

Champion Bumper

This market is still to properly form however the current favourite Ballyandy looks too big. He is clearly the best horse in the UK so far that we can at this stage guarentee a run from (Couer Blimey would be of interest but hasnt been seen since beating Ballyandy when getting weight). None of the Irish horses have shown much so far and the better types appear to be going elsewhere. Once their plans start to be confirmed I can only see the price dropping and I can see him being fairly popular on the day. Furthermore he is proven on the ground and at the trip and has run some pretty quick times too. He is currently between 9/1 and 11/1 on the exchanges.

[Blazing Bailey]

Ryanair Chase

This race is still a little up in the air but with several horses still likely to defect elsewhere the race is likely to cut up quite a lot.

If he ends up going to this race, Road to Riches has to be respected with Cheltenham form, better on better ground and has showed that he will have the speed for this test but at the current prices with that doubt over him, he isnt of great appeal just yet.

There are 3 other horses that I have my eye on. Two improvers on one been there and done it horse.

The two improvers come from the same yard in Phillip Hobbs. Champagne West is no doubt the classier horse and with a clear round is likely to play a hand in the finish but he just cant avoid clouting one and in a race like this at the Festival he simply cant afford to make such a mistake. The other horse I am interested in which is in the mid 20's on Betfair at the moment is Village Vic. He has been a big improver this winter with wins here on soft and heavy. He has plenty of form on good ground too and on the whole he jumps quickly so I could see him getting a few out of their comfort zone and his rate of improvement has been impressive. The conundrum is just whether the soft and heavy ground has made him look better than he is, and it is a possibility, but I think that is factored into his price at the moment. I could see him being half his current price come the day.

The other horse on my radar is Dynaste. Presumably this would have been the plan for the Pipes all season and whilst I would have liked to see him run better this year its only one day that counts and the Pipes have shown that they are good of getting that preparation right. He has put up figures only slightly lower than he did the season he won this race comfortably and this is equally a crap as a renewal as it was that year, assuming of course that the likely players do go elsewhere. Dynaste is also around the 25's plus mark on Betfair.