Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

I have always thought about starting one of these personal threads so now that the flat season is drawing to a close and the jumps game is starting to kick into gear I thought I would get this underway now ahead of Champions Day at Ascot and Cheltenham's first meeting of the year next weekend. I am going to be backing horses in pretty much all forms of the game (jumps, flat & AW) but each discipline will have their own rules which I will detail below. STAKING & BANK I will stick with a progressive level stakes betting plan and if I end up at a minus 100 points bank, then I will stop posting selections in that discipline. My stakes plan will be as follows: Below +25 points = 1 point 25-50 = 2 points 51-100 = 4 points 101 - 200 = 8 points 201 - 400 = 16 points and so on. I do give myself an option to put a half stake bet on but that is only if there is some level of doubt over the selection but it is worth a risk nevertheless. I use this mainly in cases where I have a hunch or I cant explain a couple of bad runs but the horse has excellent older form or smaller things as the horse not having run so far in the season. BETTING METHODS Flat - This is my main money earner and all my selections are based on RPR's and Topspeed ratings with other factors then taken into account especially racing style, track style and draw. I focus on handicaps (C4+) and group races along with the odd 2yo race or conditions race here and there. My best form normally coincides with the ground being consistently good or better and the simpler tracks (Newbury, Ascot, Donny etc) are usually my happiest hunting grounds and quirky tracks (Goodwood, Epsom, York) are generally where I struggle a little. I usually wont have much of a write up for flat horses because my workings are all based on figures but if there is something worth knowing I will try and post it up. Jumps - This is how I first got into the game and whilst it isnt as profitable for me, I find it far more enjoyable to review the races and watch too. Over the jumps I dont have any shortcuts (unfortunately) and I just pour through all the information I can find on the post from past form and come up with selections from there. I tend to focus more on C3 races and above mainly because it takes me a lot longer to go through the card and also to do the write-ups themselves. Again I prefer the big handicaps but I do think you can find some decent price winners in 4-6 runner races so I will look at those every now and then too. AW - This is a mixed bag for me and I am trying to improve my betting in this area. Again I stick to C3+ handicaps and group races. Theoretically it should be my bread and butter due to how I review the races but I can find them a little unpredictable. I will be working on them the same was I do with the flat but I will primarily be looking for handy horses especially around Lingfield due to the congestion you can find. I havent reviewed any races from the new surface at Wolverhampton so I will keep an open mind at that track until I have done more research. ODDS Primarily I will be using the main highstreet bookies and their BOG concession. I will post the occasional Betfair price if I think it is too big to ignore. I will ALWAYS be posting the prices I have taken which is normally the night before in most cases. Sometimes the price will end up being bigger in the morning and sometimes it will be shorter but given my other commitments its the only way I will have the time to post it up, especially during the week. If there is anything else I think of or something I have forgotten, I will come back to this post and amend it. So here it goes! :hope

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Probably not the greatest day of punting to kick off the thread given the track and the ground but we shall see! York 2.20 - Soviet Rock 11/2 Bet365 - 1 point 3.30 - Spinatrix 16/1 Betvictor - 1 point - She will love these conditions and despite her increasing mark she will be tough to beat. 3.30 - Ashpan Sam 28/1 Betvictor - 1 point - Solid soft ground form again and underestimated if back to his best. 3.30 - Rene Mathis 28/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points - May just find this trip on the short side but worth chancing. 5.20 - Chain of Events - 20/1 - William Hill - 1 Point 5.20 - Lungarno Place - 12/1 - Betfred - 0.5 points - Lowest rated of my selections but progressive and handles soft. Worth a chance. 5.20 - Mystery Bet - 20/1 - Betfred - 0.5 points - Now tipped up by Hugh Taylor and his column says it all. Form in general is inconclusive but has done really well on soft and that form puts him in the picture. Chepstow (all 0.5points due to not having a run this season) 4.20 - Dormello Mo - 4/1 Betvictor I was hoping there was going to be more rain overnight but it is forecast to rain again for a couple of hours before this race starts. Nicholls has a good record in this race (4 times since 2007 I believe) and the overall profile of his form suggests that he is more than capable of this mark. The ground was probably too quick at Newbury on his last start but that form has worked out quite well, he hosed up at Sandown in a weak race that a couple of the horses further back have done OK but nothing spectacular and he was running another big race when his stamina over 19f on heavy ebbed away. Nicholls has started the season well and he is sure to have him fit enough to win if he is good enough. 4.55 - Boondooma 7/2 Skybet & Cloud Creeper 5/1 Hills Boondooma has plenty of form to show that he is capable from this mark from his decent 5th at Cheltenham where he fell in a bit of a hole up the hill after travelling strongly all the way through to his 6th in a Grade 3 at Sandown in a race that was worked out exceptionally. The 2 races he won in between were weak affairs and he won in the manner he should have but those two races I detailed above look like very strong pieces of form and there could be more to come. The use of the claimer may be a suggestion that there are other races on the agenda for the horse but either way I still like his chances. Cloud Creeper is a horse I have followed on a couple of occasions. He didnt fire on good ground LTO and he can be excused his Haydock defeat as he was hampered by a faller. Looking at his other form (or even the Fontwell race on good) it all suggests that he is capable from this mark and he will go one better at somepoint. I think the current good to soft ground is probably ideal for him but he wouldnt mind it softer either and Hobbs horses are in pretty decent nick too. There a couple other I would just like to mention in this race who might also not be badly handicapped. Get It On has some solid form and may not have finished winning over hurdles yet. I do think this trip on this ground is likely to stretch him a little especially as his most recent two wins over this trip have been slowly run with sprint finishes which suit him. If this race becomes tactical it may just play into his hands. Colebrooke is a difficult horse to work out. He ran a blinder at Aintree and if that form is anything to go on he will be a huge force here but he may have been slightly flattered in that race as well (led a slowly run affair) and Skelton has given the leg up to a young claimer who hasnt been close in any of her races for him in the last 14 days. I suspect there may be another day for this horse.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Good start yesterday with Spinatrix winning gamely with Rene Mathis running pretty well in the same race. Lungarno Palace ran a big race and was nearest at the finish in 4th but the other two were disappointing, along with Soviet Rock who travelled well before fading. Flat Staked: 5.5 points Flat Results: +17 points Profit: +11.5 points I dont know what happened with Dormello Mo but it sounds like it was a farce of a race. Boondooma ran a big race to get us up for the day and he looks like he has plenty of scope. Not sure what to make of Cloud Creeper as he ran well enough for a long way but faded at the end, maybe needing the run. Jumps Staked: 1.5 points Jumps Results: +2.25 points Profit: +0.75 points There will be no selections today and probably not tomorrow although there are a couple of races at Windsor I may run my eye over depending on whether I have the time.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary I tell a lie... I have just had 5 mins to look at the Sprint at Goodwood and whilst its a tricky race due to the ground and also the number of horses that have run within the last 10 days (which isnt something I like to see, albeit I do understand it can be profitable in the right conditions). Ladweb catches my eye because he is drawn well, likes it soft, is a sprinter in form and he races handy which I think is also a bonus here. He isnt top on my figures so this is more of a hunch than my traditional selection but a lot of the others have question marks over them. GW 3.40 - Ladweb 12/1 - 0.5 points Bet365

[twinny]

Re: Bailey's betting diary good luck Bailey

[Boulder5111]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Just found this thread, well done yesterday and good luck with the thread. :ok

[Antipodes]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Great start mate, and could have been ever better with Ladweb an excellent run at the odds today.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

I tell a lie... I have just had 5 mins to look at the Sprint at Goodwood and whilst its a tricky race due to the ground and also the number of horses that have run within the last 10 days (which isnt something I like to see, albeit I do understand it can be profitable in the right conditions). Ladweb catches my eye because he is drawn well, likes it soft, is a sprinter in form and he races handy which I think is also a bonus here. He isnt top on my figures so this is more of a hunch than my traditional selection but a lot of the others have question marks over them. GW 3.40 - Ladweb 12/1 - 0.5 points Bet365

Ran well to finish 2nd never quite managing to master the front running winner. Flat staked - 6 points Profit +11 points. I will do more stats once I have a few more selections under my belt.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Just looked at the Windsor card and there won't be any selections for tomorrow.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary The weather looks as though it is set to ruin things for tomorrow with the only 2 races I would be interested in looking likely to be run on heavy going. Nottingham and Wetherby look to have a few races I will be keen to look at on Weds so hopefully they escape as much of the rain as possible.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Nottingham is still down as heavy so I will be leaving that card alone and head up to Wetherby where quite remarkably it is on the quick side of good. The forecast looks clear so there shouldnt be any going changes between now and the end of racing. It will be interesting to see what the ground is really like after the last but unfortunately I dont have that luxury so I will just have to hope the ground is currently what they say it is. Im also running late so I can only be brief. 2.50 - Oyster Shell 7/2 @ 1/2 point Skybet As long as the ground is good I think this horse is a very solid bet and its one that makes me want to break my own rules. He has plenty of really solid good ground handicap form of which a reproduction in a race of this nature will surely see him score. He tailed off a little at the end of last season but that happens a lot over the jumps and he still looks progressive and capable of resuming his improvement this season. Only a half point because its his first run of the season. 3.25 - Secrete Stream 13/2 @ 1/2 pt Betvictor I really like the look of this horse, not only for tomorrow but for the rest of the season. The trainers comments have always suggested that he has been held in high regard and he has plenty of form from his novice runs, especially against the likes of the late Tigris, and he has the perfect conditions tomorrow. The main question is whether he is going to be geared up for tomorrow or whether he will have bigger plans but I think that if we dont collect on him tomorrow then it wont be long before we do. There are a couple of other interesting runners in this. Goodwood Mirage looks to have plenty of ability but he is the most natural jumper which I dont like to see. Lightening Rod won first time out off this mark last season he looks a frustrating sort that has run well without seeing it through since. One that has run this season and almost saw some of my money is Olivers Gold who is probably just a little inconsistent from race to race. On his good days he is capable of winning this but even then he might just find one too good. 4.00 - Deciding Moment 11/2 & Alderbrook Lad 7 @ 1 point each Bet365 Deciding Moment has some solid competitve handicap form and he looks to be on a workable mark based on his last run with the 3rd winning NTO and the 4th running well. He is more often there or thereabouts finishing strongly and gamely which is something I like to see. He jumps well too and now that he will be a little sharper for his recent return he should be bang there. Alderbrook Lad is a favourite of mine. He is a bold leaping front runner who has had plenty of excuses during his chase career whether it be ground, trip or just bumping into one. He does make the occasional error but good ground over 20f looks perfect for him and he should get that tomorrrow. I expect he will probably be leading them a merry dance for a long way and it will be a case of how well his jockey sets the right fractions and doesnt burn him out. Of the rest, the current Fav Foundation Man, looks the next best but he is a tricky horse and whilst there is no-one better than McCoy for such a runner, I wouldnt want to be backing him at that price. The presence of Alderbook Lad will help in that respect as he is bound to set a decent clip but he strikes me as a horse that beats himself and McCoys quotes of "gormless" and "he wants to go everywhere but forward" definitely put me off, especially as that was after he won on him!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary My bloody Internet is playing up in my area so I have got the patience to look at the results properly on my phone or look at tomorrow's cards. Disappointed not to get one on the board today especially with 2 2nds a 3rd and a 5th. It sounds like with a better leap here or there it could have been a different story especially as I didn't back one of the eventual winners because of their jumping!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Im back online today so I will have a quick review of my runners on Weds before starting tomorrows cards. Oyster Shell hit two of the last three fences and that cost him the race. Its disappointing that he didnt win but it may have been down to a little ring rust so maybe my staking rules are right after all. Secrete Stream didnt fire as expected and was a little one paced unlike his previous runs. As I mentioned, Im sure there is more to come. In the end Maguire who replaced McCoy on Foundation Man had a fairly easy time of it and didnt have the struggles that McCoy had last season. He has had a second wind op according to Jonjo so maybe that was just the difference as he saw off my two picks who finished 2nd and 3rd. Jumps Bets = 7 Winners = 1 Staked = 4.5 Returned = 0.75 Loss = -3.75

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Back to the flat for now and whilst its a decent card at Newmarket, I think 2yo's on that type of ground can be a bit of a lottery so I will pass on those races. Haydock is currently soft but I dont really trust the clerk of the course there so I imagine its probably closer to heavy and they have more rain forecast. My figures are below: Haydock 3.40 - Englishman 12/1 Skybet (1 point) & Links Drive Lady 14/1 Bet365 (0.5 points) Englishman 90 Links Drive Lady 92 Secret Look 89 New Bidder 87 I am going to stick with the top 2 to battle it out much like they did at Windsor a few runs back. They both like it soft and their best recent performances have come on deep ground. LDL is a little quirky, especially when she gets in front too early is probably a decent place chance if you like that type of bet so I will only be going in at half stake because I think she is capable if things to drop right and she is a good enough price to take that chance. Englishman looks slightly more solid. He has had a couple of excuses (ground, held up at Ripon with draw bias against him) and his soft ground form is really interesting. Annoyingly they are both drawn next to each other as I will generally look to back one on each side but I dont like either of the other two enough to take that punt. Newmarket 4.35 - Breton Rock 13/2 Betvictor - 1 point Breton Rock 114 Thawanny 112 Cable Bay 110 Amarillo 109 Here Comes When 108 When I take my figures I base them solely on the form of the ground they have run on and this is a difficult race to assess in some ways because a lot of them dont have that much form on a testing surface. On what I do know though, Breton Rock stands out as a solid bet despite his penalty. The french horse Thawanny could take some beating but Im not keen at all on his price in this sort of field.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Cheltenham 3.15 - Return Spring 12/1 Paddy Power - 0.5 points Cheltenham is back! :nanaAlthough I had forgotten what it is like to go through an big field handicap card, especially on a weekday! Looking at the weather I predict it will be probably on the good side of soft so I have looked for horses with some softer ground form because I think it will just be deep enough to make it a factor. I have had a look through and below are my thoughts of some of the more likely candidates: Henryville - In good form but this isnt the track you would want to see a horse racing over this trip for the first time on ground that is likely to be softer than ideal. Return Spring - Ran some crackers here last season before falling away in his last two races. The form of his win FTO and then 2nd on his next start here are excellent pieces of form meaning he can be competitive from this mark. He stays really well, has won here on soft and I can see him flying home when others are faultering. Grandads Horse - Similar to the above, but he is even harder to work out because whilst he did it well LTO his previous hurdle form was 2 years ago. On the Bridge - Another that seems to need a sound surface but he has run some big races in big handicaps but disappointed in winnable events over the summer. He stayed on well enough behind Henryville over a sharp enough trip so he should be respected if it stays drier than anticipated. Junction Fourteen - I dont know what to make of this one. His win at Kempton hasnt worked out that well in the grand scheme of things and he was already paddling over 21f at the same venue on soft from his revised mark on his next start. He might stay this new trip but when you factor in the hill as well I cant be confident of him staying on to win. I am sure he will be popular in the market tomorrow. Barafundle - Can be left alone after 524 days off the track but maybe one to watch if he shows some of the old sparkle. Clara Mc Cloud, On the Record & Sur La Mer - Dont really have much substance to their form. I can see the former running well and picking up the pieces but I dont she will be good enough to win. Samingarry - Needs to show he is as effective over hurdles as he is over fences & Destroyed Deployed needs to show some sparkle after losing confidence over fences. Sybarite - Could be interesting. He has a couple of solid pieces of form on deep ground and his trainer normally has his string forward for this meeting. He is another than I think might run well without being good enough. Abolitionist and Chill Factor have similar profiles. Unexposed, not a great deal of form to go on, but they have beaten a couple of decent yard sticks more recently. I could see both turning out to be very well handicapped but they will need to be round here from 8lb out of the handicap. I certainly wouldnt put anyone off but there isnt enough there for me to back them. Of the two, the latter is probably the most likely as the ground will suit more.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Haydock 3.40 - Englishman 12/1 Skybet (1 point) & Links Drive Lady 14/1 Bet365 (0.5 points) Englishman 90 Links Drive Lady 92 Secret Look 89 New Bidder 87 I am going to stick with the top 2 to battle it out much like they did at Windsor a few runs back. They both like it soft and their best recent performances have come on deep ground. LDL is a little quirky, especially when she gets in front too early is probably a decent place chance if you like that type of bet so I will only be going in at half stake because I think she is capable if things to drop right and she is a good enough price to take that chance. Englishman looks slightly more solid. He has had a couple of excuses (ground, held up at Ripon with draw bias against him) and his soft ground form is really interesting. Annoyingly they are both drawn next to each other as I will generally look to back one on each side but I dont like either of the other two enough to take that punt. Newmarket 4.35 - Breton Rock 13/2 Betvictor - 1 point Breton Rock 114 Thawanny 112 Cable Bay 110 Amarillo 109 Here Comes When 108 When I take my figures I base them solely on the form of the ground they have run on and this is a difficult race to assess in some ways because a lot of them dont have that much form on a testing surface. On what I do know though, Breton Rock stands out as a solid bet despite his penalty. The french horse Thawanny could take some beating but Im not keen at all on his price in this sort of field.

Englishman does the business for a nice little profit for the day. Links Drive Lady ran pretty well for 4th too so I think you might have got a return if anyone did decide to back her EW. Breton rock was solid in 3rd and looked to have ran a decent race in defeat. Flat Staked = 8.5 Flat Returned = 30 Profit = 21.50

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Cheltenham 3.15 - Return Spring 12/1 Paddy Power - 0.5 points Cheltenham is back! :nanaAlthough I had forgotten what it is like to go through an big field handicap card, especially on a weekday! Looking at the weather I predict it will be probably on the good side of soft so I have looked for horses with some softer ground form because I think it will just be deep enough to make it a factor. I have had a look through and below are my thoughts of some of the more likely candidates: Henryville - In good form but this isnt the track you would want to see a horse racing over this trip for the first time on ground that is likely to be softer than ideal. Return Spring - Ran some crackers here last season before falling away in his last two races. The form of his win FTO and then 2nd on his next start here are excellent pieces of form meaning he can be competitive from this mark. He stays really well, has won here on soft and I can see him flying home when others are faultering. Grandads Horse - Similar to the above, but he is even harder to work out because whilst he did it well LTO his previous hurdle form was 2 years ago. On the Bridge - Another that seems to need a sound surface but he has run some big races in big handicaps but disappointed in winnable events over the summer. He stayed on well enough behind Henryville over a sharp enough trip so he should be respected if it stays drier than anticipated. Junction Fourteen - I dont know what to make of this one. His win at Kempton hasnt worked out that well in the grand scheme of things and he was already paddling over 21f at the same venue on soft from his revised mark on his next start. He might stay this new trip but when you factor in the hill as well I cant be confident of him staying on to win. I am sure he will be popular in the market tomorrow. Barafundle - Can be left alone after 524 days off the track but maybe one to watch if he shows some of the old sparkle. Clara Mc Cloud, On the Record & Sur La Mer - Dont really have much substance to their form. I can see the former running well and picking up the pieces but I dont she will be good enough to win. Samingarry - Needs to show he is as effective over hurdles as he is over fences & Destroyed Deployed needs to show some sparkle after losing confidence over fences. Sybarite - Could be interesting. He has a couple of solid pieces of form on deep ground and his trainer normally has his string forward for this meeting. He is another than I think might run well without being good enough. Abolitionist and Chill Factor have similar profiles. Unexposed, not a great deal of form to go on, but they have beaten a couple of decent yard sticks more recently. I could see both turning out to be very well handicapped but they will need to be round here from 8lb out of the handicap. I certainly wouldnt put anyone off but there isnt enough there for me to back them. Of the two, the latter is probably the most likely as the ground will suit more.

Safe to say I was a bit off on the ground because it was labelled as good for the day but that is no excuse for the big disappointment of Return Spring who is probably one to be wary of now until he shows a bit more sparkle. I was very close to having a small bet on Sybarite last night but I convinced myself that he would probably find one too good and the remainder I kind of had about right with Clara Mc Cloud placing and Abolitionist running a good race but probably feeling the effects of being 8lb out of the weights. Jumps Staked: 5 Jumps Returned: 0.75 Jumps Loss: -4.25

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary On the flat it is Champions Day tomorrow and in truth there isnt a great deal out there I like. There are a couple of races I have had a look at though and my figures are as follows: Ascot 2.20 - 6f G2 Gordon Lord Byron 117 Gregorian 116 Maarek 114 Baccarat 112 Eton Forever 112 Im not sure Gordon Lord Byron is at his best around Ascot and he has ran below form on his last 3 starts here so even with conditions up his street I am going to leave him alone. Maarek has missed the break on his last 3 starts which is an issue so that leaves me with Gregorian who has run some really consistent races this season and whilst he has flopped once on heavy in France this season, he has run well on it in the past along with soft ground plenty of times so he should be OK. Gregorian 11/1 - Betvictor - 1 point

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ascot 3.20 - 8f G1 Night of Thunder 120 Integral 119 Tullius 118 Custom Cut 116 Charm Spirit 116 The 3 at the top are a little bit close to call and normally I would sit this out but I am going to back Night of Thunder and Tullius because they will relish conditions. Tullius has been running brilliantly all season and he was given a rest ahead of his recent start on ground plenty quick enough. Back on a soft surface I can really see him stepping up once more and he is a very backable price. Night of Thunder is short in the market and I havent had a bet yet because I think he may drift in the morning. I dont necessarily think is the greatest of value at this stage but I do think he is the most likely winner. He ran some blinding races on soft as a 2yo and a return to a softer surface may also see him step up on this seasons form. If he does that it will win and win well IMO. Tullius 10/1 - William Hill - 1 point Night of Thunder 11/4 or 3/1 (currently) but hoping for closer to 4 in the morning - 1 point I will be looking at Cheltenham in the morning.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Cheltenham 2.35 - Persian Snow 8/1 Betvictor - 0.5 points Several of these dont look particularly well handicapped (Champion Court, Johns Spirit, Astracad, Ackertac, Sew on Target) but at the same they are sure to be bang there and can win under the right circumstances. Claret Cloak is very ground dependent and it looks just about right for him but he isnt proven over the trip and I wont be taking that risk here. Bennys Mist is probably running on quicker ground than ideal and he doesnt have the hood he did so well in LTO. His Chelt form recently isnt inspiring either. Ericht and Workbench are unknowns for me. They might be well enough handicapped to win but I havent seen enough to convince me and Croco Bay seems to be a little one paced. That leaves me with Persian Snow who might just find this a little quick but I will take a punt anyway. He progressed nicely last season and ran a bold race at the Festival especially considering he was squeezed for room and hit the last (good to soft) before disappointing on his final run back here on genuinely good ground. He may have been over the top at that stage and he also does have some excuses for other disappointments on genuinely good ground and he seems happy enough on GS. That result at the festival along with his good runs at Warwick on slower ground are decent pieces of form and I am confidence that he is a well handicapped horse, the main question is just whether he will do himself justice today.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Cheltenham 3.45 - Le Bec 5/1 & Roalco Des Farges 16/1 Paddy Power - Both 0.5pts (money back 2nd or 3rd offer) If Le Bec is fully wound up then I think he should win. He is a classy animal who was still travelling strongly before falling in the RSA and he has beaten some decent horses along the way last year. He stays well, he is generally a good jumper and he has plenty more to come. I am also going to take a punt on Roalco Des Farges because I think he is still a well handicapped animal as well. His Newbury win has worked out nicely and even the form since his Ludlow 3rd suggests this mark is workable. More interestingly for me he was travelling really well in the Whitbread at Sandown and looked to be coming through to take it up when he tired badly so back down to a realistic trip, on his preferred good ground, he too should be in the mix assuming he is at least close to full fitness.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Cheltenham 4.25 - Andy Kelly 7/1 William Hill - 0.5pts Bit of an odd race this with plenty of unexposed types who have very little form to go on but based on his form behind Bygones Sovereign at Ascot (who had the run of the race) and his 4th on debut at Kempton behind Warden Hill and Caroles Destrier I think this horse is on a good mark and his stable seem to be in decent enough knick to suggest he might be ready for todays race. After that Ascot run he was tried over further and didnt see it out at Newbury on heavy before facing a simple task at Kempton which he duly obliged.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Cheltenham 3.45 - Le Bec 5/1 & Roalco Des Farges 16/1 Paddy Power - Both 0.5pts (money back 2nd or 3rd offer) If Le Bec is fully wound up then I think he should win. He is a classy animal who was still travelling strongly before falling in the RSA and he has beaten some decent horses along the way last year. He stays well, he is generally a good jumper and he has plenty more to come. I am also going to take a punt on Roalco Des Farges because I think he is still a well handicapped animal as well. His Newbury win has worked out nicely and even the form since his Ludlow 3rd suggests this mark is workable. More interestingly for me he was travelling really well in the Whitbread at Sandown and looked to be coming through to take it up when he tired badly so back down to a realistic trip, on his preferred good ground, he too should be in the mix assuming he is at least close to full fitness.

Le Bec now a non runner which is gutting and Roalco Des Farges is available at 14/1 with Betfred.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

On the flat it is Champions Day tomorrow and in truth there isnt a great deal out there I like. There are a couple of races I have had a look at though and my figures are as follows: Ascot 2.20 - 6f G2 Gordon Lord Byron 117 Gregorian 116 Maarek 114 Baccarat 112 Eton Forever 112 Im not sure Gordon Lord Byron is at his best around Ascot and he has ran below form on his last 3 starts here so even with conditions up his street I am going to leave him alone. Maarek has missed the break on his last 3 starts which is an issue so that leaves me with Gregorian who has run some really consistent races this season and whilst he has flopped once on heavy in France this season, he has run well on it in the past along with soft ground plenty of times so he should be OK. Gregorian 11/1 - Betvictor - 1 point

Also a non runner and nothing else in the race takes my fancy.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Jumps Persian Snow ran a great race to finish second but Johns Spirit was a worthy winner and looks to have improved again. Roalco De Farges did the business at a massive price. Shame about the R4 but he really stayed on well up the hill after not really travelling early on. Andy Kelly was disappointing and finished in midfield. Staked: 6.5 points Returned: 7.55 points Profit: 1.05 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Flat Only the one race but at one stage I thought I had the winner with each horse (if you get what I mean). Tullius took it up but faded late and then Night of Thunder looked like he was going to get there. I dont think it was the greatest ride on the 2nd because I thought he should have made his mind up a lot earlier to take the route round the field. It might not have made much difference to the result but I dont think Hughesie gave his mount the best possible chance. Staked: 10.5 points Returned: 30 points Profit: 19.5 points

[cpo]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Nice winner today mate, I was on Le Bec as well, thought he had an excellent chance.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Nice winner today mate' date=' I was on Le Bec as well, thought he had an excellent chance.[/quote'] Thanks mate. Yeh I'm sure he does and I will be keeping an eye out for him. In the end though I'm not complaining that he ended up being a NR! Ha

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No selections for tomorrow and I doubt there will be any for Monday either.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Not much racing on tomorrow so I will be looking at the 3.40 @ Exeter shortly to see if there is anything of interest but I am also going to look at the 6f sprint handicap at Wolverhampton as I try and work out an angle on the new surface. My understanding of Tapeta is that it is meant to ride like turf but because I dont really believe that I will be using a mixture of AW stats and turf stats. Usually for the AW I will solely look at AW form so it will be interesting to see if anything does transfer across. My figures for the horses I think are well enough handicapped as follows: Poyle Vinnie 89 Foxy Forever 88 Lady Horatia 87 George Rooke 86 Taquka 84 Amygdala 83 Realize 82 Desert Strike 81 There doesnt appear to be any definitive bias in the draw from the ATR stats and looking at the right ups of previous sprints there doesnt appear to be a particular pace bias. Ones to rule out: Foxy Forever has run poorly on his first 3 starts and while I think he has heaps in hand, I would like to see something first or at least get a much better price. George Rooke has never run on a synthetic surface which raises enough doubt to pass on. Desert Strike is bound to pop up somewhere but not in a race as competitive as this at his age. Based on this my 1-2-3 would be Poyle Vinnie, Lady Horatia & Taquka. Im not going to be betting anything at this stage but it will be interesting to see what happens.