Bailey's betting diary

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Ascot 3.35 - Le Bec 11/2 William Hill (MB2) - 0.5 points I highlighted this one in my Cheltenham posts a couple of weeks ago and my thoughts on the horse havent changed. Potentially more to follow...

Cantlow 20/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points This horse was starting to get his act together last season and looked like fulfilling his early promise when winning a decent race at Newbury before running a big race behind Double Ross (ahead of Colour Squadron) and that form is rock solid. He looked to have a decent chance at the festival before falling and then had a confidence booster over hurdles before running another sounds race in the Irish National in which he didnt seem to stay, but importantly after his fall he travelled well and jumped well enough too. He does have the tendency to hit one, as he did in both his Newbury win and Cheltenham second but he has showed that he can overcome such errors and still run big races so if he can avoid clouting one and assuming he is race fit (I wouldnt have thought that Gerraghty would have been booked if he wasnt) then he could cause a shock at a big price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Wetherby 3.50 - Secrete Stream 7/2 @ 1 point - Bet365 & Matthew Riley 17/2 @ 0.5 points Stan James I posted this before Secrete Streams last run:

3.25 - Secrete Stream 13/2 @ 1/2 pt Betvictor I really like the look of this horse, not only for tomorrow but for the rest of the season. The trainers comments have always suggested that he has been held in high regard and he has plenty of form from his novice runs, especially against the likes of the late Tigris, and he has the perfect conditions tomorrow. The main question is whether he is going to be geared up for tomorrow or whether he will have bigger plans but I think that if we dont collect on him tomorrow then it wont be long before we do.

In the end it was a bit of a sprint finish and the horse got outpaced and in general just looked as if the outing was probably needed. He is short enough for today and I wouldnt like to play any shorter than the current price, especially given the trip is slightly unknown but I dont think it will be an issue given how he shaped LTO and I am still confident he is well handicapped (especially with the 2nd winning well since). Matthew Riley is admittedly a bit of a cliff horse for me. I am sure this horse is well handicapped but he keeps bumping into one. This trip may be on the short side for him now but he ran a pretty big race in a very competitive handicap hurdle on his reappearance on softer ground by the now World Hurdle winner More of That. He wants a galloping track which he gets today and if he is primed he is another that could run well.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Im not going to include these in my stats but just for a bit of fun I will be looking at the following runners in the Breeders Cup tonight (depending on price) based on my ratings and specifically looking for a good draw and early speed: 7.05 - Angela Renee 7.43 - Dank & Dayatthespa 8.21 - Artemis Agrotera & Judythebeauty 9.05 - Tightend Touchdown 9.43 - American Pharoah (poss NR but likely short anyway) & Carpe Diem 10.22 - Telescope 11.01 - Private Zone & Rich Tapestry 12.35 - Shared Belief

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Frustrating day on the jumps, mainly because I was a mile out on most of them! However Secrete Stream did do the business to return the 4.5 points I staked so at least I am none the worse! Looking back at the results Next Sensation and Manyriverstocross were very disappointing. The former hit one early and never recovered and the latter travelled OK to a point but then started paddling. Claret Cloak found one and Bellanos didnt jump that great either and may have needed it. I would never have backed Ulck Du Lin mainly because I consider him a horse that doesnt find much but front running tactics worked a treat and should remain competitive. Sign of a Victory won on the bridle which was a bit of a surprise (in that he could win that comfortably) so it will be interesting to see how he progresses. I didnt fancy the 2nd at all although I did think the 3rd would run a big race if back to his best. Mountain King looked a threat off the home bend but didnt see it out. Le Bec and Cantlow ran stinkers and in truth I think the Cantlow bet was a poor one. You can become a poor man quite quickly in picking average jumpers over fences in decent races and I should have left him alone. What a Warrior is a force to be reckoned with under Skelton and I did think he had a chance on his previous run but I wasnt confident enough that he would back that up. Black Thunder is also a horse I have liked but I wasnt sure how 'right' he was after his fall in the RSA given his poor run LTO. Secrete Stream ran really well though, stalked the pace, challenged nicely and pinged the last and looks one to keep an eye on. Matthew Riley was very disappointing though. Jumps Staked: 19 Returned 21.05 Profit: 2.05

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Im not going to include these in my stats but just for a bit of fun I will be looking at the following runners in the Breeders Cup tonight (depending on price) based on my ratings and specifically looking for a good draw and early speed: 7.05 - Angela Renee 7.43 - Dank & Dayatthespa 8.21 - Artemis Agrotera & Judythebeauty 9.05 - Tightend Touchdown 9.43 - American Pharoah (poss NR but likely short anyway) & Carpe Diem 10.22 - Telescope 11.01 - Private Zone & Rich Tapestry 12.35 - Shared Belief

In the end I didnt bet Dank and Shared Belief out of this list but I got a couple of winners to put me in a little profit and a couple of the others went pretty close too so I at least had something to shout home!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Carlisle 2.35 - 26f Handicap Chase C3 Fill The Power doesnt stay the National trips IMO so Im not too fussed about those runs. He has bits of form here and there with the best piece coming from his fast finishing run at Donny to end up just outside the places. I wouldnt put anyone off him but I dont think he is well enough handicapped to back. Tutchec was hugely progressive last season winning 4 on the bounce on all different ground and the form of the last 3 of those wins looks pretty solid and gives him a good chance off a mark of 130. On his last run last season he was beaten by Ballyoliver but he may have just had enough by then and not been at his sharpist. Its interesting that his trainer has said a couple of times that he will be better next year so if he is he could take some beating. Orange Nassau is a horse I cant work out. He has no reliable form and I would be surprised if he won. I have seen some decent judges tip him up mind you. Similar comments also apply to Settledoutofcourt. The Panama Kid & Grove Pride both have something to prove. Ballyoliver started getting his act together at the end of last season and that form is decent enough without being spectacular. All of his best form last season was on a sounder surface so I am not sure whether he will be as good on soft today. He has won on soft but his 3 runs on it last season were really poor. It could be coincidental to some extent but its enough for me to pass on today. Global Power looks like an interesting runner. Lightly raced and ran a blinder on his only start last season with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th horses all holding up the form. His trainer commented after that race that he is best fresh and best on soft which is two things he has in his favour today. He also didnt seem to stay the marathon trips but his form around this distance from the season before also looks solid. Soudain & Ballypatrick are both capable off their current mark but both will prefer further. Lastly Franktheslink won two decent races last year and the form of those two runs is surprisingly excellent. Like Ballyoliver though, I think he prefers a better surface and can be passed on up in class. Selections Tutchec 7/1 @ 0.5 points Global Power 9/2 @ 0.5 points Both with various firms.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Redcar 2.30 - Ty Gwr 6/1 @ 1 & Open Eagle 8/1 @ 0.5 Corals

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Carlisle 2.35 - 26f Handicap Chase C3 Fill The Power doesnt stay the National trips IMO so Im not too fussed about those runs. He has bits of form here and there with the best piece coming from his fast finishing run at Donny to end up just outside the places. I wouldnt put anyone off him but I dont think he is well enough handicapped to back. Tutchec was hugely progressive last season winning 4 on the bounce on all different ground and the form of the last 3 of those wins looks pretty solid and gives him a good chance off a mark of 130. On his last run last season he was beaten by Ballyoliver but he may have just had enough by then and not been at his sharpist. Its interesting that his trainer has said a couple of times that he will be better next year so if he is he could take some beating. Orange Nassau is a horse I cant work out. He has no reliable form and I would be surprised if he won. I have seen some decent judges tip him up mind you. Similar comments also apply to Settledoutofcourt. The Panama Kid & Grove Pride both have something to prove. Ballyoliver started getting his act together at the end of last season and that form is decent enough without being spectacular. All of his best form last season was on a sounder surface so I am not sure whether he will be as good on soft today. He has won on soft but his 3 runs on it last season were really poor. It could be coincidental to some extent but its enough for me to pass on today. Global Power looks like an interesting runner. Lightly raced and ran a blinder on his only start last season with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th horses all holding up the form. His trainer commented after that race that he is best fresh and best on soft which is two things he has in his favour today. He also didnt seem to stay the marathon trips but his form around this distance from the season before also looks solid. Soudain & Ballypatrick are both capable off their current mark but both will prefer further. Lastly Franktheslink won two decent races last year and the form of those two runs is surprisingly excellent. Like Ballyoliver though, I think he prefers a better surface and can be passed on up in class. Selections Tutchec 7/1 @ 0.5 points Global Power 9/2 @ 0.5 points Both with various firms.

Been a bit busy the last couple of days so havent been able to look at this properly. Tutchec ran well enough up to clouting the 3rd or 4th last after which point he folded and Global Power came through well enough to finish second but was no match for the winner who did run well on the soft ground. Jumps Staked: 20 Returned 21.05 Profit: 1.05

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Redcar 2.30 - Ty Gwr 6/1 @ 1 & Open Eagle 8/1 @ 0.5 Corals

Open Eagle won nicely in the end. I should have put him up as a full bet because I had quite a large hunch that this was his preferred trip but I was in a rush and didnt trust my instincts. Even so its a nice little profit for the day and creeps me closer to upping my stakes, albeit with not much time left before the season ends. Flat Staked: 18.5 Returned 39.5 Profit: 21

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Nottingham 2.20 - Dominate 16/1 Bet365 BOG - 1 point This doesnt look a particularly strong race and Im not sure how many of these really relish the winter surface we have now and I dont think many of them will improve for the ground. Dominate was beaten on soft over 5f LTO but that was at Goodwood which can be hit and miss for a lot of horses and he has never truelly fired at the track either so I am willing to write that off. Before that he had won and was just touched off in 6f handicaps on heavy and good to soft but I dont anticipate that this extended 5f will be too much of a problem tomorrow on this ground. He has a 7lb claimer on board as well tomorrow and from a good draw at a track that has a minor bias for handier horses, he should be very competitive at a big price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Kempton 7.40 - 7f C3 Handicap Deauville Prince - 97 Musaddas - 93 Bluegrass Blues 92 Outer Space 91 Khatiba 90 Forceful Appeal 89 Lots of horses with lots to prove. Deaville Prince ran a cracker LTO and he will also run handy although he has a wide draw which may prove a pain. Bluegrass Blues is inconsistent but capable, Musaddas and Outer Space havent proven themselves at the trip and Forcefull appeal is badly out of nick whilst Khatiba has to prove his LTO win wasnt a fluke. Despite the draw I will take a chance on the horse at the top of my ratings as he is clear and is relatively unexposed on this surface. Selection Deauville Prince 8/1 @ 0.5 points Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Nottingham 2.20 - Dominate 16/1 Bet365 BOG - 1 point This doesnt look a particularly strong race and Im not sure how many of these really relish the winter surface we have now and I dont think many of them will improve for the ground. Dominate was beaten on soft over 5f LTO but that was at Goodwood which can be hit and miss for a lot of horses and he has never truelly fired at the track either so I am willing to write that off. Before that he had won and was just touched off in 6f handicaps on heavy and good to soft but I dont anticipate that this extended 5f will be too much of a problem tomorrow on this ground. He has a 7lb claimer on board as well tomorrow and from a good draw at a track that has a minor bias for handier horses, he should be very competitive at a big price.

Slowly away and completely ruined his chance in the process. One for another day maybe. Flat Staked 19.5 Returned 39.5 Profit 20

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Wolverhampton 7.40 - Solar Deity 5/1 Skybet - 0.5 points This horse was at his best around the old track at Wolverhampton and his form last winter in Dubai also suggests the new surface will be up his street as well. He is still on a decent enough mark and assuming he is at least close to full fitness (Dubai will again probably be the long term aim) he should go well in this. There is nothing else in the race that really stands out but Maverick Wave could be dangerous if this surface is up his street (at his best on soft turf) and Earth Drummer looks well handicapped but Im not sure he will stay the trip.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary No time for reviews or write ups tonight and I will go through everything tomorrow. Wolves 6.20 Out Do 10 /1 Bet365 @ 1 point Go Far 8/1 Bet365 @ 1 point Musselburgh 2.00 Tantamount 5/1 Skybet @ 1 point - See previous write up ahead of aintree run. Wyse Hill Teabags 6/1 Corals @ 0.5 points.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Kempton 7.40 - 7f C3 Handicap Deauville Prince - 97 Musaddas - 93 Bluegrass Blues 92 Outer Space 91 Khatiba 90 Forceful Appeal 89 Lots of horses with lots to prove. Deaville Prince ran a cracker LTO and he will also run handy although he has a wide draw which may prove a pain. Bluegrass Blues is inconsistent but capable, Musaddas and Outer Space havent proven themselves at the trip and Forcefull appeal is badly out of nick whilst Khatiba has to prove his LTO win wasnt a fluke. Despite the draw I will take a chance on the horse at the top of my ratings as he is clear and is relatively unexposed on this surface. Selection Deauville Prince 8/1 @ 0.5 points Bet365

Deauville Prince ran a shocker but the rest all finished on top of each other with the 2nd best rated winning.

Wolverhampton 7.40 - Solar Deity 5/1 Skybet - 0.5 points This horse was at his best around the old track at Wolverhampton and his form last winter in Dubai also suggests the new surface will be up his street as well. He is still on a decent enough mark and assuming he is at least close to full fitness (Dubai will again probably be the long term aim) he should go well in this. There is nothing else in the race that really stands out but Maverick Wave could be dangerous if this surface is up his street (at his best on soft turf) and Earth Drummer looks well handicapped but Im not sure he will stay the trip.

Solar Deity ran like he would be better for it but the good news is the 2nd and 3rd rated came 2nd and 3rd, which is promising without making me any money!

No time for reviews or write ups tonight and I will go through everything tomorrow. Musselburgh 2.00 Tantamount 5/1 Skybet @ 1 point - See previous write up ahead of aintree run. Wyse Hill Teabags 6/1 Corals @ 0.5 points.

I thought Tantamount would come on for the run LTO but despite running well for a long way he dropped off tamely in the end. Maybe he didnt stay the trip as well but he ran a similar way at Aintree and I wonder if he needs a bit of juice in the ground to be at his best. At Aintree I thought he hit the ground quite hard but thought it was more likely to be a combination of first run and possibly trip. I will probably follow this horse once more but only with some cut. He should be a decent price when he re-appears too. Wyse Hill Teabags was really poor. Probably needed the run but has previously done well enough fresh. He probably doesnt have a great deal in hand of the handicapper upon reflection.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

No time for reviews or write ups tonight and I will go through everything tomorrow. Wolves 6.20 Out Do 10 /1 Bet365 @ 1 point Go Far 8/1 Bet365 @ 1 point

These two were poor. The former faded tamely in the straight albeit always wide, and the latter got stuck out back before picking up well enough at the end. He didnt have the best of draws and would benefited by being able to race closer to the pace AW Staked = 3 Returned = 0 Loss = -3

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Jumps Staked: 21.50 Returned 21.05 Loss: 0.45

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Doncaster 3.35 - 12f Handicap C2 Dashing Star 104 Rhombus 100 Comminicator 99 Esteaming 98 Farquhar 97 Old Town Boy 97 Ardlui 96 Aramist 95 Tough race this and I'm not entirely confident about any of them. Focusing on the top of the list, I think Dashing Star may be high enough now and isnt worth changing at current odds, Rhombus has the figures I like and will live conditions but he is a strange one. His best form has come in small fields but I do think he might pop up in a race like this. The next couple dont look particularly well treated and the rest of the list are a little lower than I like to back, especially as the more interesting types are at the head of the market. I will chance Rhombus at a half stake. Rhombus - 25/1 Skybet @ 0.5 Win

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Wincanton 2.40 - Badger Ales Trophy 25f Listed Handicap An interesting race with a good mix of the exposed, well handicapped and complete unknowns. Conditions are likely to change overnight and I am anticipating soft ground but if its any different I may add an additional selection in the morning. Just A Par, Duke of Lucca, Golden Chieftain, Ackertac, Deciding Moment, and Alfie Spinner all look to me as though they will struggle off their current marks in a race of this nature. The Young Master (form), According To Trev (form with new trainer), Workbench (ground & trip), Ifyousayso (general form and ground), Opening Batsmen (well being) are unknowns who may be capable but not horses I can take to. Creevytennant is quirky and Pantxoa is turning out again quickly. This leaves: Bennys Mist is capable on his day but is generally at his best on a softer surface. His reappearance was a sound one and may have needed it but the stables horses are running well fresh and it may have been a combination of no hood and good ground. Overall he has a chance but is too inconsistent for my liking. Benvolio is very interesting albeit for a stable not really firing. Trip and ground wont be a problem and his form from Newbury, Haydock and Fontwell looks very good. He is progressive, is generally a good jumper and looks as game as they come. He will stay on and I would be disappointed if he wasnt there at the finish assuming he is wound up for this. Dare to Endeavour looks another progressive sort. His form isnt as solid as the horse above but there are a few runs in there which suggest he is capable from this sort of mark. He is also a good jumper and game but he will relish a soft surface so this is one I will wait on for the morning. Court By Surprise and Standing Ovation are quite similar in that they still look to have some scope off this mark providing the ground stays on the good side. Both have run well this season, both have solid older form (including in this race last season) but the Pipe horse is the better jumper of the two. We know they both stay and they will be of interest tomorrow depending on the ground. Selections so far: Benvolio 10/1 William Hill (MB2nd) - 0.5 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Sandown 2.30 - 20f C2 Handicap Chase This is another great race with a real mix of horses and I am only going to write about the ones that made my shortlist. Sound Investment looks a horse on the up. He made a satisfactory hurdles re-appearance but on the balance of his chase form I am not sure he has the kindest mark. He may be capable but this is a hot little race and I think he will probably find easier opportunities. Tatenen rad some brilliant races last year after getting his head in front at Newbury. He could be a real danger off this mark based on his end of season form but I do think this trip is probably a little too sharp for him but it certainly wouldnt surprise me to see him bang there. Foundation Man is a quirky bugger and whilst he looks to be improving his general level of form isnt that great and in a race of this nature his quirks may get exposed. Barrakilla is actually a horse I have had my eye on for a while as I thought his hurdle mark was workable and nothing so far in his chase career has suggested otherwise. He was ridden very tenderly on chase debut in what has turned out to be a reasonable enough race, he then ran a decent race at Catterick with Holywell one place ahead (the winner has come back out yet but looks one to keep an eye on when he does) before going one better on his preferred softer surface and a stiffer test around Warwick with the well handicapped Persian Snow behind. He has his ground, his trip and assuming he is wound up for this he should go close. Freckle Face has looked hugely progressive and his novice wins suggest this mark is more than reasonable. I have a feeling he was flattered by those wins and his reappearance didnt inspire confidence but I could be wrong and he could bolt up! Filbert is ran well enough on reappearance only getting outpaced in the home straight when the leaders kicked. That was a good race too and his trainer has previously commented that he will be better over further and on soft ground which he should get today. He didnt enjoy it on heavy here at the end of last season but his Wetherby 4th behind Desert Cry (travelling well before he hit one), his win at Newbury (stayed on well over 17f) and his reappearance last year at Ascot behind Drumshambo all suggest his current mark is workable. His trainer is in good nick and should run well. Selections Barrakilla 5/1 Betfred - 0.5 points Filbert 9/1 Betvictor - 1 point

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Sandown 3.40 - 24f C3 Handicap Chase Not that much depth to this race in truth. Lookslikerainted won nicely LTO on his first chase start under rules. He could be well ahead of his mark but none of the other horses have ran since and with many being chase debutants or on their first run of the season they are almost impossible to weigh up. Beforeall is likely to run a game race but will more than likely find one or two better handicapped. Caulfields Venture looks the obvious choice. Form is solid, ran well on reappearance and jumps and travels well in his races. His trainer thinks a lot of him but his best and most recent form has been on quicker ground. He did win on soft but that was off a mark of 99 and given he is now almost 30lbs higher, you would have expected him to win whatever the conditions. Saroque is slightly harder to work out. The form of his 2nd at Exeter is excellent with the winner, 3rd and 4th all winning since. The Chepstow run after that can be ignored a little because he was running well and battling on for 2nd/3rd when the saddle slipped. The horse jumped really well that day from the front and I do like that around this track because a horse can get away. Saroque clearly handles soft ground but is thought to prefer a bit of good in the description to and being from a stable in form I think the current odds are worth the chance. Loch Ba is potentially well treated but has a little to prove, especially at current odds of 3/1. Selection Saroque 8/1 Bet365 - 0.5 points

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Wincanton 2.40 - Badger Ales Trophy 25f Listed Handicap An interesting race with a good mix of the exposed, well handicapped and complete unknowns. Conditions are likely to change overnight and I am anticipating soft ground but if its any different I may add an additional selection in the morning. Just A Par, Duke of Lucca, Golden Chieftain, Ackertac, Deciding Moment, and Alfie Spinner all look to me as though they will struggle off their current marks in a race of this nature. The Young Master (form), According To Trev (form with new trainer), Workbench (ground & trip), Ifyousayso (general form and ground), Opening Batsmen (well being) are unknowns who may be capable but not horses I can take to. Creevytennant is quirky and Pantxoa is turning out again quickly. This leaves: Bennys Mist is capable on his day but is generally at his best on a softer surface. His reappearance was a sound one and may have needed it but the stables horses are running well fresh and it may have been a combination of no hood and good ground. Overall he has a chance but is too inconsistent for my liking. Benvolio is very interesting albeit for a stable not really firing. Trip and ground wont be a problem and his form from Newbury, Haydock and Fontwell looks very good. He is progressive, is generally a good jumper and looks as game as they come. He will stay on and I would be disappointed if he wasnt there at the finish assuming he is wound up for this. Dare to Endeavour looks another progressive sort. His form isnt as solid as the horse above but there are a few runs in there which suggest he is capable from this sort of mark. He is also a good jumper and game but he will relish a soft surface so this is one I will wait on for the morning. Court By Surprise and Standing Ovation are quite similar in that they still look to have some scope off this mark providing the ground stays on the good side. Both have run well this season, both have solid older form (including in this race last season) but the Pipe horse is the better jumper of the two. We know they both stay and they will be of interest tomorrow depending on the ground. Selections so far: Benvolio 10/1 William Hill (MB2nd) - 0.5 points

The ground looks as though it will stay on the quick side of soft and therefore Court By Surprise and Standing Ovation are of interest. Given the price difference (CBS @ 14's & SO @ 11/2) I will probably lean towards the latter. I will wait til a little bit later in the day because if it does turn up to be soft I will definitely be going with Dare to Endeavour instead.

[trapper74]

Re: Bailey's betting diary I would be wary regarding the going at Wincanton, there has been a lot! of rain today. Would say soft personally. Interesting race for sure - one for watching not punting for me, good luck BB!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Thanks Trapper. In the end I stuck with Benvolio purely because I couldnt make my mind up with the ground and also partly because I forgot what time the race was and it was too close to the off to make a final decision! ha Overall yesterday was disappointing despite some promise. On the flat Rhombus stayed on nicely from the back of the field but no-one was making up ground in that race and he had no chance whatsoever with the principles. Over the obstacles, Barrakilla ran into a good 3rd looking as though the run was needed and Filbert got himself into a good position before failing to stay. Benvolio got a great ride by his young amateur and he didnt travel a yard yet stuck on for 5th. One of the horses I was unsure about in regards to the ground finished 2nd but was no match for the completely unexposed winner. Back at Sandown Saroque ran well for 2nd but was also no match for the unexposed winner. Its unlikely I will be able to look at any cards over the next couple of days and I have lots lined up for the end of the week so this thread might be quite quiet over the next few days.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Totals Update Flat - End of Season Staked 20 Returned 39.5 Profit 19.50 Not too bad for a few weeks at the end of the season on worsening ground. Jumps Staked 23 Returned 21.05 Loss 1.95

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Bangor 2.00 - Knock A Hand - 7/1 Paddy Power - 0.5 points This is a race with a few hopefuls and a lot more question marks. The likes of Across The Bay, Dursey Sound, Whats Happening, Herdsman and Howards Legacy are all capable on their day and in the right conditions but one thing or another suggests to me that this might not be their day, however if it is, Whats Happening might be the most likely. The current favourite Operating is sure to be fancied based on his Irish form but he has always been touted as a good ground horse and on a softer surface, with the trip an unknown and also for a yard are necessarily known for improving one from another stable, he is easy enough to swerve on this occasion. That leads me to Knock A Hand who bar a little blip in the Welsh National and the race after where he was likely feeling the effects of that run, had a very good and productive season novice chasing. On his reappearance last season he split Many Clouds and Holywell, he comfortably won a couple of weaker events before running a good second to a progressive type at the time with the 3rd horse notching a 3 timer over the summer. That ground was probably also firmer than ideal for this horse who likes it soft which is what he should get tomorrow. He is another that hasnt had a run yet this season but assuming he is fit enough to do himself justice, I think he should run well at a very reasonable price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Bangor 2.00 - Knock A Hand - 7/1 Paddy Power - 0.5 points This is a race with a few hopefuls and a lot more question marks. The likes of Across The Bay, Dursey Sound, Whats Happening, Herdsman and Howards Legacy are all capable on their day and in the right conditions but one thing or another suggests to me that this might not be their day, however if it is, Whats Happening might be the most likely. The current favourite Operating is sure to be fancied based on his Irish form but he has always been touted as a good ground horse and on a softer surface, with the trip an unknown and also for a yard are necessarily known for improving one from another stable, he is easy enough to swerve on this occasion. That leads me to Knock A Hand who bar a little blip in the Welsh National and the race after where he was likely feeling the effects of that run, had a very good and productive season novice chasing. On his reappearance last season he split Many Clouds and Holywell, he comfortably won a couple of weaker events before running a good second to a progressive type at the time with the 3rd horse notching a 3 timer over the summer. That ground was probably also firmer than ideal for this horse who likes it soft which is what he should get tomorrow. He is another that hasnt had a run yet this season but assuming he is fit enough to do himself justice, I think he should run well at a very reasonable price.

Ran well enough in 3rd without being a match for the winner and was only just pipped for 2nd. Jumps Staked 23.5 Returned 21.05 Loss 2.45

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Ludlow 2.00 - Kingcora 9/1 Bet365 - 1 point Again this is another mixed bag of a race. At the front of the market you have a horse that has beaten nothing of note in a weaker grade, another horse that pulled up 10 days ago after a race ending mistake who has also beaten nothing, a potential handicap plot job that has finshed no better than 4th over fences (Gorsky Island) and then a horse that for all intents and purposes looks badly handicapped on what we have seen and hasnt run over the trip before. Im not going to say that my horse is angel because he has some jumping demons that come to the surface every now and then but his level of form is far superior to those he is racing against tomorrow and if he puts his laboured debut behind him and puts in a half decent round of jumping, he should be involved at the finish. Proven over the trip and on the ground, he has two excellent pieces of form from the middle of last season at Ascot and Exeter and his comfortable victory at Bangor is ok as well. Im confident he is well handicapped and considering he has his conditions tomorrow, at the current odds he is definitely worth a punt.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary

Ludlow 2.00 - Kingcora 9/1 Bet365 - 1 point Again this is another mixed bag of a race. At the front of the market you have a horse that has beaten nothing of note in a weaker grade, another horse that pulled up 10 days ago after a race ending mistake who has also beaten nothing, a potential handicap plot job that has finshed no better than 4th over fences (Gorsky Island) and then a horse that for all intents and purposes looks badly handicapped on what we have seen and hasnt run over the trip before. Im not going to say that my horse is angel because he has some jumping demons that come to the surface every now and then but his level of form is far superior to those he is racing against tomorrow and if he puts his laboured debut behind him and puts in a half decent round of jumping, he should be involved at the finish. Proven over the trip and on the ground, he has two excellent pieces of form from the middle of last season at Ascot and Exeter and his comfortable victory at Bangor is ok as well. Im confident he is well handicapped and considering he has his conditions tomorrow, at the current odds he is definitely worth a punt.

Never really involved but also wasnt beaten too far either. The ground stayed better than I had anticipated so his chance will more likely come in deeper ground. The handicap plot job won which is a little annoying because I spotted but the horse just hadnt shown enough for me to get involved.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Bailey's betting diary Cheltenham 1.50 - C2 Handicap Chase - 16f Karinga Dancer - Likely to prefer better ground and less stiff fences. Next Sensation - Well handicapped but showed none of his old zest LTO and has something to prove. Fair Dilemma - Improved bundles for new trainer. Best form has been on good ground but has old heavy ground form so the softening conditions shouldnt be a problem. Its hard to weigh up the value of his summer form but if taken literally he has a good chance especially as he is a dependable jumper. Anquetta - Form is patchy and unreliable. Shangani - Needs to show some form before being able to be considered. Even the win and second last season were in poor races. Festive Affair - Won a decent novice race with a couple of decent sorts behind (2nd not done anything since, 3rd who was back off a quick break has progressed nicely). Ran well enough up to a point at the festival which is solid form if you believe the trip is the issue. The horse has won a soft ground point so Im not sure it is. Possible. Da Faiothesdream - Jumping probably wont stand the test Anay Turge - Won this last year with my money but has been poor since. Ut Majeur Aulmes - Form is solid enough but I cant help thinking he wont see it out up the hill based on a couple of weak finishing efforts on sharp enough tracks. Rio De Sivola - Trail blazing front runner who is a brilliant jumper. Probably got a bit bogged down on heavy ground on his last start (2nd likely winner when fell NTO). His form behind Bellanos looks solid given that ones rating now and the form of his novice win has worked out too. Big player if taking to Cheltenham. Monetaire - Unknown french recruit on first start for yard. Hollow Blue Sky - Likely to find this sharp enough. Robins Command - Will relish the stiff finish having rallied home a couple of times. If the expected rain comes in I think it might just turn out to be too soft for his best form Going Concern - Progressive over fences but probably biting off more than he can chew in this company especially on likely softer than ideal ground. Selections Rio De Sivola 20/1 Betfred - 0.5 points Fair Dilemma 20/1 Skybet - 1 point