harry_rag Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Castres v Harlequins: Combezou to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with Hills Clifford to score a try, 13 points at 5/1 with Betfred Edges of 22.8% and 56.5%. That's it for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Hughes and Clifford tries yesterday made for a profitable day though still down when Friday's losses taken into account. Bath v Glasgow: Joseph to score a try, 20 points at 3/1 with Betfred or BF Sportsbook Eastmond to score a try, 18 points at 3/1 with Betfred Bennett to score a try, 8 points at 13/2 with PP Edges of 48.8%, 36.8% and 27.3%. Disappointed to miss the 4/1 available for Eastmond when I started looking at the game but still decent at 3/1. Have had a small bet on Joseph for 1st try at 14/1 given that Fred's "double delight" offer applies. One of these days, an "honourable mention" bet will have to actually land! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Munster v Sale: P O'Mahony to score a try, 14 points at 9/2 with Betfred Arscott to score a try, 13 points at 11/2 with BF Sportsbook Brady to score a try, 12 points at 11/2 with BF Sportsbook Fihaki to score a try, 8 points at 11/1 with BF Sportsbook Edges of 52.8%, 69.6&, 58.3% and 103.7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets And finally for this weekend. Clermont v Saracens: Chouly to score a try, 9 points at 7/1 with Skybet Strettle to score a try, 12 points at 5/1 with BF Sportsbook Edges of 51.1% and 46.1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Arscott the only winner today so it's a losing weekend with 3 winners from 22 bets. One more winner would probably have edged it into profit. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1322.80 points Total staked 3374 points Number of bets 318 Winning bets 57 Losing bets 261 Strike rate 17.92% Yield 9.57% Profit (or Loss) +322.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Fairly slim pickings this week with just the LV Anglo-Welsh Cup and French Top 14 to go at. As it stands, neither spread firm has player try minute prices for any of the games so it could well be a "no bet" week. I'll have another look in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Prices up eventually for a few bets. Montpellier v Bordeaux: 6 points each on Lesgourgues and Madaule at 10/1 with PP Edges of 43.3% Harlequins v Bath: 9 points on Fa'osiliva at 9/1 with PP Edge of 88.9%. Also like J Chisholm at 4/1 with Lads but not an official selection as edge falls just short. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No spread prices at all today so able to do an early update this weekend. 2 winners from 3 selections with both Bordeaux players obliging at 10/1. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1433.8 points Total staked 3395 points Number of bets 321 Winning bets 59 Losing bets 262 Strike rate 18.38% Yield 12.78% Profit (or Loss) +433.8 points Actual yield for fixed odds selections is 14.86% while level stakes yield would be 26.2%. Average fixed odds stake is 11.31. Had I opted to just have 10 points level stakes on all fixed odds selections the overall profit and yield would now be +652.8 points and 21.11%. I think a review in staking approach might be in order! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Still working on whittling down my shortlist but taken one price so far. Wales v England: Faletau to score a try, 5 points at 11/1 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 31.7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Two more bets in the same game. May post one or two non-system picks in the 6 Nations thread, having had a closer look than usual at this game. Buy Webb's try minutes for 1 point at 8 with SX or SPIN Buy Joseph's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX Edges of 17.8% and 26.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Webb's 8th minute try and Joseph's on 45 minutes make for a loser, a push and a winner yesterday and a net profit overall. One bet in the earlier of today's two games. Italy v Ireland Campagnaro to score a try, 8 points at 13/2 with PP, Coral or Hills Edge of 27.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets France v Scotland: Buy Kockott's try minutes for 1 point at 5 with SX Buy Lopez's try minutes for 1 point at 3 with SX Hogg to score a try, 9 points at 13/2 with Skybet Bennett to score a try, 6 points at 11.5 on BF (or 17/2 with bookies) Dunbar to score a try, 6 points at 10/1 with Skybet Edges of 30.1%, 48.4%, 41.6%, 42.9% and 43.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Just the 1 winner from 9 bets this weekend, plus the push on Webb. Makes for a small loss with a side order of regret that Webb had to score his try so early on, but that comes with the territory when buying try minutes. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1429.8 points Total staked 3452 points Number of bets 330 Winning bets 60 Losing bets 270 Strike rate 18.18% Yield 12.45% Profit (or Loss) +429.8 points Super Rugby returns next week. Plenty of tries scored in that competition, will hopefully furnish a few winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Here's some musings on the results so far and a couple of questions for anyone taking an interest that I'd welcome any opinions on. 237 of the bets so far (71.8%) have been fixed odds bets, with 44 winners responsible for 355.8 points profit (82.8%). The actual yield is 13.39% but the yield to level stakes would be 23.34%. If I divide the bets into 4 quarters (give or take, i.e. 60/60/60/57), level stakes has outperformed actual every time. 93 of the bets (28.2%) have been spread bets, with 16 winners responsible for 74 points profit (17.2). The yield for the spread bets is 9.31%. The biggest winner returned a profit of 133 points and there are 2 other bets that, had either of them lost, would have meant the return was negative. The questions are: Is the conclusion that I should switch to level stakes for the fixed odds selections as obvious as it seems on the face of it? Should I persist with the spread bets for a while longer? On the face of it, the ROI and strike rate are reasonably encouraging but the fact that there are 3 bets that could wipe out the whole profit on their own if any of them had lost obviously sounds a cautionary note. As I say, any views would be welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets I've been following to level stakes ( albeit small ) so I've more than happy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No time to get off the treadmill just yet so we'll carry on as we are for a while yet. I'd still welcome any further thoughts on the staking approach though. Super Rugby starts tomorrow and there's just the one speculative bet on the opening game. Crusaders v Rebels: Buy Stirzaker's try minutes for 1 point at 3 with SPIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets How does Kelly staking hold up? Personally I think you can start drawing provisional conclusions and that is level stakes fixed odds, but continue to monitor others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Thanks for that, I'm not too well up on the finer points of Kelly but I believe it's based on reflecting the perceived edge you've got in your stakes. I've been identifying the edge that the fixed odds price offers over the spreads which is not quite the same as price v true odds but the trouble is I've not kept a record of the edge for each bet. That said, I could calculate it easily enough I think. To a certain extent, I have staked more the bigger the edge is because the fixed odds stake has been the spread price so one 3/1 shot would carry more stake than the other if the spread price was higher. Anyway, another game looked at. Brumbies v Reds: Coleman to score a try, 19 points at 3/1 with 888 or Unibet T Kuridrani to score a try, 14 points to score a try with the same firms Buy Kerevi's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Edges of 42.9%, 18.1% and 28%. Edge for the selection in the other game is 64.9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Lions v Hurricanes: Kriel to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with PP Buy Woodward's try minutes for 1 point at 9 with SX Thomson to score a try, 10 points at 19/4 with Sportingbet Edges of 22.8%, 32.4% and 19.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Brumbies v Reds: T Kuridrani to score a try' date= 14 points to score a try with the same firms Sorry, that should have said at 13/4! I managed to not quote the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 3 out of 4 in the early games, 1 in the Pro 12 later. Ulster v Treviso: Nitoglia to score a try, 8 points at 17/2 with VC Was 15/2 when I first looked so anything over 7/1 is acceptable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Blues v Chiefs: Buy Weber's try minutes for 1 point at 5 with SPIN Edge of 91.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Sharks v Cheetahs: Bothma to score a try, 13 points at 4/1 with PP or Sportingbet Buy Pretorious's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX Buy van der Spuy's try minutes for 1 point at 5 with SX or SPIN Edges or 30.5%, 33.1% and 30.1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets England v Italy: Joseph to score a try, 28 points at 6/4 with Coral or Betfred Edge of 19.6%, he's odds on with more than half the firms on Oddschecker and surely shouldn't be as big as this against today's opponents. I suspect there'd only be 1 firm offering this price if not for Coral apparently having a "best price" promotion on the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Ireland v France: Buy Kockott's try minutes for 1 point at 3 with SPIN or SX Edge of 23.7%. Very much at the other end of the scale to Joseph but the only bet that looks worth taking in this game. I don't think he should be priced as something close to a 14/1 shot to score a try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Small profit so far today courtesy of Joseph scoring. A "bonus" pick here as I've had chance to look at the late Pro 12 game. If I'm not mistaken, I'll have exactly broken even on the day should this one lose. Munster v Cardiff: Allen to score a try, 9 points at 7/1 with PP An edge of 51.1%. You can bump that up to 70% if you can avail yourself of the 8/1 available with Boyles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Tomorrow's early Super Rugby game. Waratahs v Force: McCalman to score a try, 7 points at 7/1 with Skybet Edge of 20.2%. 2 more selections that I'm backing as value but don't qualify under current system rules are buying Naiyaravoro's goal minutes at 18 with SPIN and backing Foley anytime at 15/4 with 365. There's a 1 point arb on both players at current spread prices which always offers the possibility of value. In the case of the former player, a buy at 18 beats the best anytime price of 8/5 which is in itself a standout. The anytime price on the latter is a massive standout and even better value than the best spread price. The obvious potential for value is borne out by the players' stats. All that comes with the standard caveat regarding the poor performance of the unofficial selections I've posted in this thread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Scarlets v Connacht: Parkes to score a try, 10 points at 6/1 with PP Buy Marmion's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SX Adeolokun to score a try, 10 points at 5/1 with SX Edges of 45.3%, 39.6% and 24.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Scotland v Wales: Buy Lamont's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Buy Bennett's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SX Edge of 18.1% in both cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Edge of 18.1% in both cases. Sorry, the edge for Lamont is actually 39.6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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