Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets

[harry_rag]

This system will involve bets on Rugby Union tryscorers, either fixed odds anytime bets or spread buys of player try minutes. The selection method involves comparing the best fixed odds and spread prices available for each player using a comparison chart I've created. Players will be considered for selection where one of the prices is judged to offer at least a 16% edge over the other one. For example, if a player is 4.0 to score a try and 12 to buy on the spreads there would be no bet as I equate 12 to 4.11 and the perceived edge is minimal. If the same player could be bought at 9, equated to odds of 5.3, it would be a potential bet as the spreads offer an edge of over 30%. From 16th March onward, different criteria apply to Super Rugby games. No spread bets will be considered and all fixed odds bets that offer any edge over the spreads will be considered, i.e. the 16% criteria will not apply. The final criteria will be my subjective opinion based on the qualifying players' tryscoring stats, e.g. a player who averages a try every other match would be attractive at 2/1 but one with 5 tries in 50 appearances probably wouldn't! I'll be using a 1,000 point starting bank and staking as follows; spread bets would be bought at 1 point per minute and the stake for fixed odds bets would be 1 x the spread price (so the total amount risked is the same whichever way I back any given player). These will be backed with real money. All fixed odds selections will be odds against and 29 will be the maximum buy price for spread bets. There will be a maximum of 6 selections in any one match. Selections will be posted at least 15 minutes before the scheduled start time. I will run the strategy for a minimum of 100 bets (subject to the bank not being exhausted first). As well as establishing whether the selections are profitable or not I'll also compare the staking approach to backing all the players fixed odds only, spreads only and with a 50/50 split. I hope that makes sense; it should do once I've posted a few selections!

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets New Zealand v South Africa: Bought B. Smith's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with Spreadex Bought Cruden's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Read to score a try, 11 points at 9/2 with Lads Bought Serfontein's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Coetzee to score a try, 6 points at 8/1 with Skybet Perceived edge of 17.9%, 41.1%, 24.2%, 25.1% and 17.2% respectively (in terms of price taken compared to best alternative fixed odds/spreads price). Have looked at players' tryscoring stats for their country, overall and last 10 games. All persuasive enough for me to back the players apart from Serfontein where I needed a nudge from his club stats to convince me.

[Torque]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Good luck. Looks interesting. :ok

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Thanks Torque. No joy in the first game; just the 2 tries, neither from any of the selections. Australia v Argentina: Hooper to score a try, 12 points at 9/2 with 888 Tuculet to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with 888 Senatore to score a try, 7 points at 10/1 with Spreadex Leguizamon to score a try, 8 points at 12/1 with Skybet Perceived edge of 33.8%, 18.8%, 20.7% and 120% respectively. (That's the edge offered by the price taken versus the price I could buy the player's try minutes it. I'm not suggesting I've found an edge of 120% compared to the true odds!) To put that last price and edge % into perspective, the 12/1 is a standout with 5/1 to 9/1 on offer elsewhere. Leguizamon and Tuculet are both 8 to buy on the spreads yet one is on offer at double the odds of the other. Senatore's spread price is as low as 5 yet he's only 10/1 anytime. The hope is that I've found some decent value; the reality could be that everyone except Spreadex has overestimated the player's prospects of scoring! Kicks off at 11.05.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets

Australia v Argentina: Senatore to score a try, 7 points at 10/1 with Spreadex

Correction: stake is 5 points, not 7.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Hooper and Tuculet oblige in the previous game. Plenty more to go at but time defeats me so this will probably be the final selection for today. Exeter v Leicester: Buy B Youngs' try minutes for 1 point at 7 with Spreadex 21% edge over the best available anytime price of 9/2 which is, in itself, a standout price. Stats convincing enough to make this a play. Starts at 3.15.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A 58th minute try for Youngs makes for a decent first day, with 3 winners from 10 selections. Will do a proper update after today's bets if there are any.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets First game I've looked at today is Bordeaux v Montpellier and it's immediately thrown up a minor dilemma for me in terms of minimum number of firms offering prices. Only Spreadex are offering try minute quotes and only they and PP have priced up the anytime market. I've decided not to set any criteria in this respect though, when I'm shorter on time, I'd probably skip a game like this in favour of one getting better coverage from the bookies. From a shortlist of 9, I've ended up with 2 selections I'm willing to back despite the reduced amount of "input data" to base my decision on. Of these, the first is by far the most confident selection. Bordeaux v Montpellier: Buy Ranger's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with Spreadex Mowen to score a try, 7 points at 15/2 with Spreadex Edges of 17.4% and 27.6% respectively. Ranger's domestic averages, in Top 14 and Super Rugby, suggest a player who would often be priced sub-2/1 in the anytime market. Today he's 15/8 and 5/2 so the chance to buy his try minutes at a price I make better than 3/1 definitely appeals. Mowen just makes the cut for me today, with 1 try already in his brief Top 14 career.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets

Bordeaux v Montpellier: Buy Ranger's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with Spreadex

Sorry, that's 1 point at 12! Will try harder and preview posts before submitting in future!

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Wasps v Northampton: Daly to score a try, 10 points at 6/1 with PP Burrell to score a try, 15 points at 7/2 with Betfred Wood to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with Skybet Edges of 45.2%, 32.3% and 35.8%, stats sufficiently persuasive.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Newcastle v London Irish: Geraghty to score a try, 7 points at 17/2 with PP Another game with only 1 set of spread prices though more fixed odds firms have priced up anytime tryscorers. 42.6% edge on this bet and stats for last couple of seasons are persuasive enough for me to back him.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Not a bad start, though would have been considerably better if I'd had a day off today! Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1043 points Total staked 137 points Number of bets 16 Winning bets 3 Losing bets 13 Strike rate 18.75% Yield 31.39% Profit (or Loss) +43 points

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Northland v Taranaki: Buy Wright's try minutes for 1 point at 10 with Spreadex DAN Pryor to score a try, 11 points at 13/2 with PP Edges of 69.3% and 28.5%, competition stats (ITM Cup) of 7 tries in 17 appearances and 9 in 37 respectively. Watch your Pryors as the less appealing Kara is the same price with the same firm.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy today. Counties Manukau v Canterbury: Buy A Pulu's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Buy Tuala's try minutes for 1 point at 4 with SPIN Buy Taylor's try minutes for 1 point at 9 with SPIN N Manu to score a try, 18 points at 13/5 with PP Another ITM Cup tie, with the visitors around 17 point favourites. Edges of 28%, 60.9%, 39.5% and 23.3% respectively and recent tryscoring stats sufficiently encouraging.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Cardiff v Ulster: Buy L Jones' try minutes for 1 point at 4 with Spreadex Olding to score a try, 10 points at 11/2 with Coral Edges of 32.5% and 34.6%

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Bath v Leicester: Buy B Youngs' try minutes for 1 point at 5 with Spreadex Goneva to score a try, 19 points at 9/4 with Betfred Edges of 40.1% and 16.1%, like the stats, need a winner to get back into the black!

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets After a good first day I've managed to find a spectacular 16 consecutive losers! That's taken me from +102 points to -53. Full update after today's selections (if there are any; 2 games to look at).

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Newcastle v Northampton: Cato to score a try, 11 points at 11/2 with PP Buy K Pisi's try minutes for 1 point at 12 with Spreadex Wood to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with Skybet 3 I like enough to back from a shortlist of 8.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Ospreys/Edinburgh: Bought Webb's try minutes for 1 point at 9 with SPIN Tipuric to score a try, 12 points at 4/1 with Hills Edges of 32.5% and 21.7%, happier to be finding apparent value on home players given their status as 14 point favourites.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 3 out of 4 today with Wood a non runner so void. That makes the update a bit more of a pleasant task. If only I'd been clever enough to just bet on the first and latest day of this campaign and not bothered on all the days in between, the figures would look very good indeed! Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1015.5 points Total staked 277 points Number of bets 30 Winning bets 6 Losing bets 24 Strike rate 20% Yield 5.6% Profit (or Loss) +15.5 points

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Bay of Plenty/Northland: Buy Takulua's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with Spreadex An ITM cup game and, with prices and stats at a premium, one where I'm only happy to back one of the 9 shortlisted players. Nearly a 40% edge for me in terms of the spread price v 9/2 anytime and his stats of 4 tries in 20 appearances (15 starts) are good enough for me in a game where the spreads have the teams in for around 26 points each.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets I was a happier bunny when Takulua added his 36th minute try to the one he got in the 3rd minute. That meant the bet showed a profit and beat the fixed odds return to the same total stake. Another game in the same competition tomorrow, with 4 out of 7 shortlisted players making the cut. Taranaki/Auckland: Buy Gibson-Park's try minutes for 1 point at 8 with Spreadex Thomson to score a try, 16 points at 4.25 with 888 McKenzie to score a try, 15 points at 4.75 with 888 Buy Visinia's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with Spreadex Edges of 17.8%, 31.9%, 39.7% and 27.7%. Of the 2 spread plays, Visinia has the most persuasive stats, including 5 tries in his 10 Super Rugby appearances. Thomson and McKenzie may be flattered by their stats in Taranaki's 7 games this season but they're worth stating. Both have scored 5 tries in those 7 games including a brace each. Since the opening game (9-9 with no tries scored), at least one of them has scored in all 6 games; both on 2 occasions. Whilst neither may score tomorrow, they look extremely attractive at those prices.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy in the last game, off to the Currie Cup next. Not many firms have priced this up but the following appeal. Cheetahs v Bulls: Buy Pretorious's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with Spreadex Burger to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with Spreadex Buy Odendaal's try minutes for 1 point at 8 with SPIN Edges of 17.9%, 18.8% and 47.2%.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A 59th minute try from Pretorious keeps me just in front. Time to start looking at tomorrow's earlier games now. I've set a spreadsheet up that makes the initial shortlisting about 3 times faster than it had been so, for better or for worse, I'm able to look at more games now!

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Counties Manukau/Wellington: Tuala to score a try, 14 points at 4/1 with PP A 38.9% edge, playing for the hosts and favourites, has a decent tryscoring record.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Glad to say that Tuala scored one of Counties Manukau's 7 tries. First up today is South Africa v Australia: Hendricks to score a try, 19 points at 9/4 with Betfred Coetzee to score a try, 12 points at 11/2 with BF Sportsbook Kuridrani to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with Skybet Hooper to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with 888 Edges of 16.1%, 58.3%, 22.8% and 35.8%, the first and last selections look the strongest on the players' stats but the other two just about make the cut as well.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Northampton v Bath: Manoa to score a try, 12 points at 4/1 with Skybet Buy G Pisi try minutes for 1 point at 11 with Spreadex Faosiliva to score a try, 8 points at 13/2 with Lads Houston to score a try, 6 points at 9/1 with Coral Buy Cook's try minutes for 1 point at 3 with SPIN Edges of 21.8%, 18.1%, 27.3%, 30.2% and 74.6%, stats look ok. Think that's all I'll have time for today.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets One each in the last 2 matches, Coetzee and a 52nd minute try from Pisi. 3 matches to look at today, starting with this one. Exeter/Harlequins: Brown to score a try, 14 points at 4/1 with PP Buy Sloan's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Edges of 38.9% and 18.1%, the former is a very strong selection based on the player's stats (48 tries in 157 appearances in the Premiership, 11 in 27 this season and last in all competitions). Less stats to go on for Sloan but he has a couple of tries from the 7 appearances I can find details of and looks worth chancing at what I make better than 13/2 anytime. Yarde's try minutes at 15 with SPIN look worth a mention. Not a qualifying bet as the edge would be in single figures but definitely a cheaper buy than I'd make it.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Wasps/Newcastle: Socino to score a try, 6 points at 12/1 with PP A whopping 69.3% edge compared to the spread price. While Wasps are expected to score more than twice as many points as Newcastle today, I don't think Socino should be quite such a big price to cross for the visitors. As he only has 3 starts at this level I'm taking a chance on 20 tries in 80 Championship appearances deserving a bit more respect than the odds are implying.

[harry_rag]

Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets And finally, Newport Dragons/Treviso: Luamanu to score a try, 8 points at 8/1 with PP Campagnaro to score a try, 6 points at 10/1 with PP Morisi to score a try, 6 points at 10/1 with PP Edges of 52.8% and 43.3% twice, whilst Treviso are big underdogs here those are standout prices which strike me as possibly erring on the generous side.