harry_rag Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Scotland v Ireland: Buy Fife's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Bennett to score a try, 10 points at 6.538 on BF (ok at 5/1 with PP) Edges of 24.5% and 22.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Tries from Nadolo and Sarto ensure this won't be the worst weekend in the last few weeks. 2 in the later Super Rugby games. Bulls v Force: Stegmann to score a try, 10 points at 9/2 with Skybet Sharks v Chiefs: Tamanivalu to score a try, 10 points at 9/2 with Skybet ?Edge of 14.1% in both cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Waratahs v Brumbies: Hooper to score a try, 8 points at 13/2 with PP Coleman to score a try, 13 points at 3/1 with PP Speight to score a try, 13 points at 3/1 with Skybet Edges of 27.3% and 4.4% twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Saracens v Exeter: Buy de Jager's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SX Bodilly to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with PP Edges of 28% and 18.9%. I make it I'll be 28 points down for the week should neither of these two oblige. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Tries for both players in the last game make for a big swing in the results for the week. Could have been better still if I'd backed them the other way round as Bodilly scored later and twice. 4 winners from 14 bets for the weekend. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1431.8 points Total staked 4607 points Number of bets 450 Winning bets 79 Losing bets 371 Strike rate 17.56% Yield 9.37% Profit (or Loss) +431.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Of the 431.8 points profit, spread bets have contributed 1 point with the remaining 430.8 coming from fixed odds. That's 152 spread bets with a strike rate of 15.13% and yield of 0.08% compared to 298 fixed odds with a strike rate of 18.79% and yield of 12.69% (20.31% to level stakes). Any views on the argument for persevering with the spread bets for a while longer versus ditching them and concentrating entirely on fixed odds? It certainly looks like the spread prices are more effective at finding value on the fixed odds than the other way round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets It does look as though fixed odds is the way to go - maybe keep a note of spread bets just to see if they pick up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 24, 2015 Author Share Posted March 24, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Thanks for that. I'd probably do that if the picks were automatic but as I review the shortlisted selections subjectively, I'd still have to do that to monitor the performance of the spreadbets, which means I'd still be doing the same amount of study to paper trade them. It feels like I either carry on backing them or stop looking at the potential bets thrown up by the system. I might carry on until there are 200 spread bets to consider but set a minimum target for the bets from now on, e.g. a 5% yield or I stop backing them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Hurricanes v Rebels: 11 points on Higginbotham to score a try at 7/2 with Skybet or SX Edge of 1.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Reds v Lions: Turner to score a try, 13 points at 7/2 with PP Tecklenburg to score a try, 8 points at 15/2 with PP Mapoe to score a try, 6 points at 15/2 with PP Edges of 17.4%, 44.3% and 10.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Ulster v Cardiff: Ellis Jenkins to score a try, 5 points at 11/1 with PP Buy L Williams' try minutes for 1 point at 5 with SX Leinster v Glasgow: Kirchner to score a try, 5 points at 18/1 with Coral Edges of 31.7%, 51.8% and 294.2% (that last one is, unsuprisingly, a record)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Waratahs v Blues: Foley to score a try, 11 points at 7/2 with Skybet Saili to score a try, 7 points at 7/1 with Skybet Edges of 1.6% and 20.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Waratahs v Blues: Saili to score a try, 7 points at 7/1 with Skybet Excellent:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Cheers. His try and Tecklenburg's yesterday make for a reasonable weekend so far. Only got time to look at 2 or 3 games today so I'm prioritising them based on highest total points expectations. Bulls v Crusaders: Botha to score a try, 5 points at 17/2 with SX Nadolo to score a try, 20 points at 9/5 with PP Edges of 4.3% and 4.1%. Having an interest in the latter for 2 or more at 13/2 as well, given his strike rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Ospreys v Zebre: Vunisa to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with VC Edge of 35.8%, that's likely to be it for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 29, 2015 Author Share Posted March 29, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets With Nadolo making it 3 winners and Botha being a non runner I make it 81 points profit for the weekend with just the Sale v Gloucester game to look at today, which I'm going to do now. Barring a lot of losing bets on that game, it should end up being a profitable weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 29, 2015 Author Share Posted March 29, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No system bets but I'd recommend backing Braid anytime at 9/2 with SX. I also bought his try minutes at 9 but, as they're up to 10, I'd heavily favour fixed odds now. He's scored 10 tries in 30 starts in the Premiership for Sale, scoring in 9 of those games (i.e. has one brace). Next best price is 3/1. Have also had a small bet on him for first Sale tryscorer at 10/1 but the anytime price is the real value. They're out of line here and I think they've underestimated his tryscoring prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Which bookie is SX? Sent from my HTC One_M8 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 29, 2015 Author Share Posted March 29, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Spreadex, who do both fixed odds and spreadbetting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Spreadex' date=' who do both fixed odds and spreadbetting.[/quote'] Cheers Harry Sent from my HTC One_M8 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 29, 2015 Author Share Posted March 29, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 3 winners from 11 selections this week, for an 81 point profit as stated earlier. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1512.8 points Total staked 4706 points Number of bets 461 Winning bets 82 Losing bets 379 Strike rate 17.79% Yield 10.9% Profit (or Loss) +512.8 points Spreads are 4 points down now, fixed odds yield is 14.81% (22.67% to level stakes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Another weekend rolls around, at least it's a long one! Hurricanes v Stormers: Perenara to score a try, 16 points at 13/4 with 365 Gibbins to score a try, 8 points at 11/2 with PP Kolbe to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with Skybet Edges of 32%, 10.4% and 18.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Rebels v Reds: Higginbotham to score a try, 14 points at 4/1 with 365 Turner to score a try, 10 points at 9/2 with PP or Lads Thomson to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with PP Edges of 39%, 14.1% and 18.9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy in the early games, one pick in today's remaining game. Gloucester v Connacht: Buy Poolman's try minutes for 1 point at 9 with SX or SPIN Edge of 17.7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 0 from 7 today. Chiefs v Blues: Cane to score a try, 11 points at 9/2 with Lads Li to score a try, 10 points at 4/1 with SX Moala to score a try, 9 points at 7/1 with PP Edges of 24.1%, 3.8% and 51.1%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Brumbies v Cheetahs: Coleman to score a try, 17 points at 12/5 with PP Hendricks to score a try, 9 points at 9/2 with SX Le Roux to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with Skybet Prinsloo to score a try, 9 points at 8/1 with PP Edges of 11%, 3.9%, 22.8% and 70%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No winners yet but pressing on regardless! Dragons v Cardiff: Buy L Williams' try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Edge of 18.1%. He's 9 to buy with SPIN so the maximum difference of opinion. An ok bet on his career stats, an exceptional one based on this season's as he has scored 9 tries in his 15 starts in all competitions. Even if he won't be maintaining that sort of ratio in the long term this looks a fair bet at the very worst. (But then again, so did all the losing ones I've posted so far this weekend!) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Possibly the last game for now, may have time for 1 more. Sharks v Crusaders: Reinach to score a try, 8 points at 5/1 with Lads Coetzee to score a try, 8 points at 5/1 with Sportingbet or Lads Esterhuizen to score a try, 6 points at 7/1 with PP Nadolo to score a try, 20 points at 12/5 with Lads Todd to score a try, 6 points at 7/1 with PP Edges of 1.9% twice, 4.2%, 26.5% and 4.2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2015 Author Share Posted April 5, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Never going to be a great weekend when your first "winner" is a try minute buy that still loses 1 point (Williams scored in the 5th minute) and you only find 1 tryscorer from 5 selections (Todd) in a game that saw 9 trys scored! 3 games to look at today, so will see if I can reduce the 150 points or so deficit rather than add to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2015 Author Share Posted April 5, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Racing Metro v Saracens: B Vunipola to score a tr, 6 points at 17/2 with Skybet Edge of 23.7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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