harry_rag Posted May 9, 2015 Author Share Posted May 9, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy last night, got two in this evening's late game. Grenoble v Clermont: Grice to score a try, 17 points at 9/2 with PP McLeod to score a try, 9 points at 17/2 with PP Edges of 79.6% and 79.4%. For what it's worth, I've had very modest bets on Grice to score 2 or more and a hat trick at 35/1 and 500/1 respectively. In his first season for Grenoble (and in NH Rugby) he has 5 tries in 16 starts in Top 14, all scored at home. MacLeod has 3 in 19 (also all at home) and is in a similar "1st season" scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy so far this weekend but at least one match today, possibly one more. Scarlets v Cardiff: Liam Williams to score a try, 24 points at 11/4 with Skybet Navidi to score a try, 8 points at 6/1 with Lads Lloyd Williams to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with Skybet Edges of 60.4%, 18.8% and 35.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 10, 2015 Author Share Posted May 10, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 0 from 10 this week, update to follow. End of the season can't come soon enough! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 18, 2015 Author Share Posted May 18, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Week off this weekend, 0/10 last weekend as per the post above. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1075.8 points Total staked 5250 points Number of bets 515 Winning bets 84 Losing bets 431 Strike rate 16.31% Yield 1.44% Profit (or Loss) +75.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 22, 2015 Author Share Posted May 22, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Northampton v Saracens: Burrell to score a try, 12 points at 5/1 with Skybet Strettle to score a try, 15 points at 3/1 with Skybet B Vunipola to score a try, 11 points at 5/1 with Lads The first two are tempting at 50/1 and 22/1 for 2 or more tries and I've had a small interest "just in case". Given recent form, I'll obviously gladly settle for a single try! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 23, 2015 Author Share Posted May 23, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Munster v Ospreys: Baker to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with Skybet Tipuric to score a try, 5 points at 10/1 with Skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 24, 2015 Author Share Posted May 24, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Gloucester v Connacht: Thomas to score a try, 13 points at 9/2 with PP Masterson to score a try, 6 points at 10/1 with Lads Small profit from yesterday's selections, small loss for the weekend if neither of these oblige. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 25, 2015 Author Share Posted May 25, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Strettle the only winner from 7 selections this week, so a small loss. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1064.8 points Total staked 5321 points Number of bets 522 Winning bets 85 Losing bets 437 Strike rate 16.28% Yield 1.22% Profit (or Loss) +64.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 13, 2015 Author Share Posted June 13, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A couple of bets in what I think may be the last knockings of the domestic action in Eur Stade Francais v Clermont: Lee to score a try, 9 points at 11/2 with Lads or PP Bardy to score a try, 4 points at 13/1 with PP Edges of 22.8% and 24.4%. Taking a token interest in the 50/1 with Skybet for Lee to score 2 or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 14, 2015 Author Share Posted June 14, 2015 No try for either player. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1051.8 points Total staked 5334 points Number of bets 524 Winning bets 85 Losing bets 439 Strike rate 16.22% Yield 0.97% Profit (or Loss) +51.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 Australia v South Africa: 10 points on Hooper to score a try at 6/1 with the Tote and 10 points on Pietersen to score a try at 9/2 with Lads Edges of 18.8% and 24.1%. Staking 10 points per bet so can afford 5 losers before I'm back where I started. Will see how it goes but will probably end the campaign before it goes into the red. That's not to say I wouldn't try again with a revised approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 A try for Hooper. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1101.8 points Total staked 5354 points Number of bets 526 Winning bets 86 Losing bets 440 Strike rate 16.35% Yield 1.9% Profit (or Loss) +101.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Back again.....good to see. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 Cheers. Inevitably went quiet once I decided not to bet on Super Rugby and the domestic season was drawing to a close. Will see how it goes with the Internationals leading up to the World Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 South Africa v New Zealand: 10 points each on Habana to score a try at 11/4 with Skybet Louw to score a try at 8/1 with Skybet McCaw to score a try at 6/1 with Lads Edges of 22.5%, 70% and 32.2%. Might have just gone with the latter based on price and stats but decided to go with Louw as the edge is so big and someone's keen to get matched at the same price on BF (whereas most other players are easily backable at the best available bookies price). Decided to back him rather than end up regretting not doing so! Habana becomes a bet because Skybet have pushed him out as an enhanced odds special; would have swerved him at the generally best available 9/4. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 25, 2015 Author Share Posted July 25, 2015 Shame I didn't only go with McCaw as he was the only one of the trio to score a try! One bet in the later game from the several that made the shortlist. Argentina v USA: 10 points on Ortega Desio to score a try at 8/1 with Betfred or BF Sportsbook Edge of 35.2%. thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 26, 2015 Author Share Posted July 26, 2015 Argentina v USA: 10 points on Ortega Desio to score a try at 8/1 with Betfred or BF Sportsbook USA indeed! Should have said Australia of course, obviously still had the Gold Cup game on my mind when posting. Just one winner from 4 this week but still a small profit. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1131.8 points Total staked 5394 points Number of bets 530 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 443 Strike rate 16.42% Yield 2.44% Profit (or Loss) +131.8 points thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Australia v New Zealand: 10 points on Hooper to score a try at 7/1 with Spreadex Edge of 35.81%, still backable at the next best 6/1 available in a few places. Still a few firms to put up their anytime prices so that price may be bettered but I'll take the risk. There may be more bets to follow but, so far, the only other player to make the shortlist was Pocock at 6/1 and he's an easy swerve on his stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 7, 2015 Author Share Posted August 7, 2015 Skybet going 15/2 Hooper so could have had an extra half point if I'd waited! I have had a small bet on the 100/1 they offer for him to score 2 or more tries as that seems a little generous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 7, 2015 Author Share Posted August 7, 2015 10 points on McCaw to score a try at 7 on BF Edge of 51.2% after commission and still acceptable at the readily available 5/1 (though still a bit of 7 left as I type), Price movements conspire to make the only winner from the last set of fixtures a potential selection and I'm happy to back him again at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 8, 2015 Author Share Posted August 8, 2015 South Africa v Argentina: 5 points each on Tuculet to score a try at 10/1 with Skybet Leguizamon to score a try at 12/1 with Betfred Matera to score a try at 14/1 with Lads Edges of 20.8%, 42.7% and 33.2%, half stakes given the speculative nature of these selections. De Villiers, Coetzee and Brussow all solid looking shortlist entrants but their stats just don't convince me (especially the last named). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 0 from 5 last week. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1096.8 points Total staked 5429 points Number of bets 535 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 448 Strike rate 16.26% Yield 1.78% Profit (or Loss) +96.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 14, 2015 Author Share Posted August 14, 2015 New Zealand v Australia: 10 points on Hooper to score a try at 8/1 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 35.2%, the only player to make the shortlist in this game, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 15, 2015 Author Share Posted August 15, 2015 No joy with Hooper though got money back as a free bet as a result of the 1st try being scored by a forward. Have used that on the first of these. Ireland v Scotland: 10 points on Visser to score a try at 3/1 and 5 points on Vernon to score a try at 10/1, both with BF Sportsbook Edges of 17.8% and 43.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2015 Author Share Posted August 21, 2015 No update after last week's losses, will update after this week's bets. Italy v Scotland: 10 points on Vendetti to score a try at 3/1 with Lads and 10 points on Ashe to score a try at 11/2 with 888 Edges of 17.8% and 34.9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 23, 2015 Author Share Posted August 23, 2015 0 from 5 for the last 2 weeks. I've not included the free bet mentioned last week in the results (i.e. I'm 10 points better off in real terms but am keeping it simple for recording purposes). Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1051.8 points Total staked 5474 points Number of bets 540 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 453 Strike rate 16.11% Yield 0.95% Profit (or Loss) +51.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 Castres v Toulon: 10 points on Ollivon to score a try at 8/1 with Spreadex Edge of 35.2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 1 bet and 1 loser this week as the bank ebbs, seemingly inevitably, back to where it started. As the system heads towards its 1st full 12 months it suprising now to look back on how well it started. 5 of the 1st 6 month end updates saw an increase in profit and it wasn't until month 8 that the overall yield wasn't in double digits. On the other hand, only one of the last 6 months saw a profit made, with April seeing most of the damage done. I'm sure there are some lessons to be learned when I get time to reflect properly on the results. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1041.8 points Total staked 5484 points Number of bets 541 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 454 Strike rate 16.08% Yield 0.76% Profit (or Loss) +41.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 1 bet and 1 loser this week as the bank ebbs, seemingly inevitably, back to where it started. As the system heads towards its 1st full 12 months it suprising now to look back on how well it started. 5 of the 1st 6 month end updates saw an increase in profit and it wasn't until month 8 that the overall yield wasn't in double digits. On the other hand, only one of the last 6 months saw a profit made, with April seeing most of the damage done. I'm sure there are some lessons to be learned when I get time to reflect properly on the results. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1041.8 points Total staked 5484 points Number of bets 541 Winning bets 87 Losing bets 454 Strike rate 16.08% Yield 0.76% Profit (or Loss) +41.8 points Although not a Rugby bettor, I followed this thread early on and saw your early successes. Pretty surprised to see such a big reverse now. Winning and losing runs are likely in most strategies I think, but if you're using the same system for working your bets, such a big up and down wave seems hard to understand. Are you sure you haven't changed your selection or staking methods? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 There have been changes along the way, I'd have to go back and do some analysis to see if any could have had any bearing on the poor results. I've switched to level stakes recently but that's probably just helped preserve the positive balance for a little bit longer. The biggest changes have been stopping the spread bets and any bets on Southern Hemisphere club games. Both of those decisions were sound enough based on results at the time. I suppose it's impossible to say whether there would have been subsequent good results on those bets to make up for the losses that came on the bets I carried on placing. I'll have a think between now and the start of the World Cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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