harry_rag Posted April 5, 2015 Author Share Posted April 5, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Toulon v Wasps: Varndell to score a try, 13 points at 7/2 with VC or Coral Thompson to score a try, 8 points at 8/1 with Skybet Edges of 17.4% and 52.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2015 Author Share Posted April 5, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets London Irish v Edinburgh: Fenby to score a try, 17 points at 3/1 with Lads & 3 others Edge of 30.6%, that's it for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 6, 2015 Author Share Posted April 6, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 1 winners from 24 selections this week, for a 192 point loss and what can only be called a shocker. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1320.8 points Total staked 4951 points Number of bets 485 Winning bets 83 Losing bets 402 Strike rate 17.11% Yield 6.48% Profit (or Loss) +320.8 points Spreads are 14 points down now, fixed odds yield is 9% (16.92% to level stakes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets It happens Harry! chin-up, your yield is still very impressive. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Cheers, I'm used to the ups and downs but that was a slightly bigger down that I had girded my loins for! If I'm honest, I probably thought I'd steadied the ship after a few bad weeks followed by a couple of decent ones and wasn't prepared for such a mauling. Nowhere near enough to deter me though, so should be back again this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Blues v Brumbies: Moala to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with Skybet Braid to score a try, 4 points at 12/1 with Skybet Tomane to score a try, 11 points at 4/1 with SX Speight to score a try, 11 points at 5/1 with Skybet Toomua to score a try, 9 points at 13/2 with Skybet Edges of 35.8%, 15.5%, 12.9%, 34.4% and 41.6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Glasgow v Cardiff: Navidi to score a try, 7 points at 8/1 with Lads Edge of 35.2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Treviso v Ospreys: Luamanu to score a try, 11 points at 7/1 with Coral Edge of 58%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Sorry, price for Luamanu is 6s rather than 7s. I got my decimal and fractional odds mixed up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 11, 2015 Author Share Posted April 11, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No joy yesterday, time is tight today so no selections. Could have rushed through a game or two but, given current form, a day off seems the sensible option! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Exeter v Northampton: Buy Slade's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX Waldrom to score a try, 15 points at 3/1 with BF Sportsbook Burrell to score a try, 11 points at 11/2 with PP Edges of 26.8%, 17.8% and 46.7% Waldrom's career stats aren't overly persuasive but I'm happy with the price on season stats of 14 tries in 18 games. With that including 4 braces I've had an interest in 2 or more at 16/1 with Lads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 12, 2015 Author Share Posted April 12, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 0 winners from 10 selections this week, for a 94 point loss. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1226.8 points Total staked 5045 points Number of bets 495 Winning bets 83 Losing bets 412 Strike rate 16.77% Yield 4.5% Profit (or Loss) +226.8 points Spreads are 21 points down now, fixed odds yield is 6.51% (13.81% to level stakes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No bets tomorrow. Just the 1 game to look at which only presented one potential selection which was an obvious swerve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets 3 games looked at so far with 7 potential selections none of which came close to looking backable. 1 of the 7 scored at 11/2 so no regrets really. Hopefully actually find a bet on one of today's games though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Force v Stormers: Burger to score a try, 5 points at 16/1 with BF Sportsbook Edge of 86.6%, not the most likely selection to end a bad run but (perceived) value is value and I think that, while he should be double figure odds, he shouldn't be as big as that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Clermont v Saracens: Bardy to score a try, 6 points at 10/1 with Betfred Buy James' try minutes for 1 point at 2 with SX Edges of 43.3% and 46.7%. Still in the land of the longshots so no regrets should there not be a winner from the bets posted so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 18, 2015 Author Share Posted April 18, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Gloucester v Exeter: Kvesic to score a try, 8 points at 7/1 with Hills Buy Slade's try minutes for 1 point at 6 with SX Edges of 35.8% and 28%. I think that's me done for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Yesterday saw the 500th bet without yielding any further winners so it feels like it might be time to pause and reflect a little. One game to look at today and two selections. Toulon v Leinster: Buy D. Armitage's try minutes for 1 point at 13 with SX Buy Bastereaud's try minutes for 1 point at 7 with SX Edges of 17.9% and 26.8%. The former player is as high as 17 to buy elsewhere so looks a decent buy at a price I'd equate to 3.83. The best fixed odds price is 9/4 with Lads who are the only firm offering better than 2/1. Would be nice to end the recent poor spell with a 2nd half hat trick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets No tries at all in that one so 0/7 this weekend. Update to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 25, 2015 Author Share Posted April 25, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A week off this week as I feel it's time for a bit of taking stock. Overdue update to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A weekend off this weekend, went 0/7 the weekend before for a 47 point loss. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1179.8 points Total staked 5092 points Number of bets 502 Winning bets 83 Losing bets 419 Strike rate 16.53% Yield 3.53% Profit (or Loss) +179.8 points Spreads are 49 points down now, fixed odds yield is 5.98% (12.82% to level stakes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets A little further analysis. Not surprisingly, recent results show a distinct deterioration, with the last 102 bets showing a loss of 328.5 points! The 4 x 100 bets before that (1st to last) showed profits of 155.48 points, 177.58 points, 0.25 points and 175 points. Figuring out why (or whether it's just random) is another matter of course! I need to look a bit more closely but the initial conclusions to be drawn would be: ditch spread bets back fixed odds only and to level stakes don't bet on Southern Hemisphere club games Super Rugby has cost me 205 points. My initial confidence when the season started was based on a recollection of doing well on the ITM Cup at the start of this campaign but the fixed odds bets on that were loss making. The spread bets performed very well but were flattered by the inclusion of a player who scored a hat trick for a 133 point profit. A bit more thinking to be done and an improved bet selection and recording spreadsheet to be finished off. I'll be back soon but not necessarily this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets I've arrived at the conclusion that I should stop the spread bets and stop betting on Super Rugby. Since I relaxed the 16% edge criteria for Super Rugby I've gone 2/23 on the games that were >16% and 2/19 on the ones up to 16%, both showing level stakes losses. Fixed odds bets on other competitions have gone 2/16 but broke even to level stakes. I appreciate that leaves me betting on domestic rugby competitions that are reaching a conclusion but so be it! Staking can stay as it is until the end of those domestic seasons. Level stakes seems the way to go but does present some practical problems in terms of always being able to get on to the required stakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Edinburgh v Gloucester tomorrow, the European Challenge Cup final. No selections made the shortlist so no system bets. One other bet did catch my eye though; I'll post it in the Rugby thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 2, 2015 Author Share Posted May 2, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Clermont v Toulon: Abendanon to score a try, 6 points at 8/1 with Skybet Chouly to score a try, 6 points at 11/1 with Skybet Giteau to score a try, 8 points at 13/2 with 888 Edges of 17.2%, 56.3% and 27.3%. Also couldn't resist wasting £1 on Chouly to score 2 or more at 200/1 with the same firm. I will be surprised if he does, but I'm not convinced the price should be much more than 100/1. Be nice if he scores early to land the system bet then I at least get a run for my "fun" money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 3, 2015 Author Share Posted May 3, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Nice to land a winner, courtesy of Abendanon getting one of the 4 tries in the game. None of the other tries were scored by any of the 5 players who made my shortlist. Starting bank 1000 points Current bank 1213.8 points Total staked 5112 points Number of bets 505 Winning bets 84 Losing bets 421 Strike rate 16.63% Yield 4.18% Profit (or Loss) +213.8 points Spreads finished 49 points down, fixed odds yield is 6.83% (14.44% to level stakes). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Harlequins v Bath: Banahan to score a try, 21 points at 11/5 with PP Joseph to score a try, 18 points at 12/5 with PP Burgess to score a try, 10 points at 11/2 with PP Edges of 23.6%, 16.3% and 34.9%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Ospreys v Glasgow: Baker to score a try, 13 points at 7/2 with Lads Edge of 17.4%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 7, 2015 Author Share Posted May 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets Leinster v Treviso: Luamanu to score a try, 10 points at 15/2 with Lads Edge of 76.4%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Re: Rugby Union Tryscorer Bets :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.