cpo Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 3.50 Ayr – Alpha Victor 1pt win @ 25/1 Bet365 I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tidal Bay come out in the morning but even if he runs I think it’s a tough ask for him to win this. The one that makes most appeal to me in this is Alpha Victor who has only had 4 chase starts. He has started to get the hang of things over fences improving with every run but did manage to win over hurdles at Bangor a couple of starts ago by 11 lengths over 3m on heavy ground and then going so close in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. His effort at Uttoxeter was another step forward and had it not been for the Pipe horse he would have won comfortably. It’s well known that it’s a race that the Pipes target so it would no disgrace finishing 2nd to Goulanes by a couple of lengths. This has proven stamina and has proven himself over various grounds. It’s forecast to rain at Ayr but that certainly won’t hinder this ones chances. He has to race from out of the handicap here but so do most of the field. The only slight doubt with this horse is that he has a couple of refusals to his name in recent starts so we might not even get a run for our money. If he does consent to race though, I think he can go well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Ayr 2:40 - Qts Scottish Champion Hurdle(LIMITED HANDICAP) (Grade 2) (1) 2m With My Tent Or Yours giving so much weight away to his rivals tomorrow it really does open up the race to plenty of other horses in my opinion. Alan King's horses have hit a nice bit of form of late and his horse Montbazon has to have a solid chance here getting so much weight after a brilliant 3rd place finish to Lac Fontana in the County Hurdle. Lac Fontana and Diakali have both gone on to frank the form of that race since and he enters the equation. I must say I am pretty sweet on Court Minstrel here though, he has a lot in his favour. He is getting 16 pounds from the favourite, he won this race last year and he won in good style at Aintree last time out so a big run is expected tomorrow. Court Minstrel WIN @ 8/1 Bet365 - Also Get a £200 Free Bet when you Register! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 3:30 Newbury - Amulet (33/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win Progressed nicely last season in lower grade handicaps before running as well as could be expected in a listed race at Doncaster, when running a decent race and showing up for a long way in a big field before not quite seeing out the 1m2f trip. Ground should be spot on for her tomorrow and looks to be suited by a by a flat mile where she can race up with pace. Could still have more improvement in her and a mark of 86 looks manageable, albeit that this is a very competitive race and her fitness has to be taken on trust, but the booking of De Sousa is positive sign. The price more than makes up for the doubts and I think she could well run better than her current odds suggest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Ayr 4.25 - Vendor 4/1 Bet365 BOG Surprised to see this one isnt shorter if I am honest. Great run on his return at Newbury earlier in the season and whilst the race hasnt thrown out too many winners it did have progressive types such as Saphir De Rheu and Gassin Golf in 4th and 5th. After that he dropped back in trip at the same track finishing behind Splash of Ginge when he was probably caught too far back as well but given the form of that race (W, 2nd, 4th, 7th and 9th all placed/ran well in Group races of some form) and similar comments apply to his run at Cheltenham where those at the head of affairs dominated the finish (again the form is strong - W, 5th, 13th, 14th have won or placed in a group race of some kind). This is a much simpler task and whilst there are a few completely unexposed 'could be anything' types lurking in the field I do think that this horse is very well handicapped and this is a far easier race than he has been contesting of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted April 11, 2014 Share Posted April 11, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 14.20 Newbury: Dutch Courage @ 7/1 Bet365 Eagerly awaiting the return of Dutch Courage to the racetrack now as a 3yo. She looked smart and pattern class when winning a Nursery against the boys on her last start in 2013. That day she had absolutely everything against herself. she settled in rear and didn't get any run whatsoever, locked behind a bunch of horses. When she tried to get some room, she was badly hampered, several times, losing her rhythm, and she was required to pick up several times, mostly over 1f out, when she finally got into the clear. It looked an impossible task but she produced a lovely turn of foot to get up and win easily in the end, putting the race to bet in a matter of strides. If she can progress now as 3yo, she should have every chance to win this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santos_ Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Ayr 3.50 - Edmund Kean (E/W 25/1 Bet365) Another weekend another National and this week it's the Scots turn. Again it's wide open and hard to discount too many but looking for a good middle of the range value bet a horse that looks interesting to me was Edmund Kean. Now he is a Novice going up against hardened opponents so he needs to step up on what he's done but he won at Leicester and Ludlow before dissapointing lto at Newcastle so does need to bounce back but he's translated his smart hurdle form to fences this season. David Pipe usually knows what he's got in these big races so he obviously feels the horse goes here with a chance and Tom Scu aboard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 1550 ayr 0.5 ew tidal bay 16/1 stanjames if this 13 year old gelding shows no effect from last weeks national,then he should have place claims in this field as he is keeping most of the others out of the handicap and that must be a big plus,he should see out the distance,and the ground poses no threats,im hopeful he can have clear round,and be there or thereabouts coming to the 2nd last,where he should be able to put in his chance in which would be a fitting finale to his racing career, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 350 A: Fill The Power EW 50/1 BetVic/SJ Low weighted horses from out of the handicap have won this race before so not too worried by the conditions of this race for Fill The Power. From a good combo of Sue Smith and Ryan Mania this 8yo has a decent profile overall and is too big at 50/1. Was 5th in this last year as a novice and has improved since then and won well at Wetherby before finishing 7th in the Midlands National. He travels well which is important here and should be up with the pace throughout and give me a fair run for my money in a wide open race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 2.55 Newbury Kingman 2/1 BetVictor BOG Although it is dangerous to assume that each horse has progressed in the same way from 2 to 3 there is no denying that Kingman was probably the best of these at 2. His stable has hit form this week too which is exactly what you want when backing a horse. I think he will win here although the Hannon horse is respected as he is also unbeaten and his stable's record in this in the last 7 years reads 4/7. 1 Point win for nap purposes Kingman 2/1 BetVictor BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kev2oo9 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 5.35 Ayr Saint Charles win 5/2 bet365 Winner of a ptp on last start and purchased for a decent price afterwards. Henderson had two winners in the nhf races yesterday at two meetings and has won 3 of 7 renewals he's sent runners in. Has the services of ap and although some of the market principles have shown decent form , it's interesting he enters this in a race he's done well in. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 3.50 Ayr - 1pt win Merry King @ 25/1 (Bet365) You can forgive this horse's last effort when he burst a blood vessel and his earlier form suggested he was a stayer with a big race in him. Was third at Haydock in January off 1lb lower but Maurice Linehan takes 5lbs off today so could be fairly treated. Usually finishes off well over about three miles and just didn't get home in the Welsh National over a very taxing 3m6f but still finished a respectable 5th and I think he'll stay this trip fine given the better ground today. Has a decent weight to carry and I think can bounce back today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 2,55 Newbury - Night of thunder - win at 11/4 bog bet365 The hannon horse and the favourite, kingman, look to be a couple of really exciting unbeaten colts for the classics Kingman is rightly favourite with the Gosden yard winning everything at the moment, but he did miss some time and had an ankle operation last backend........and with the Guineas in mind they might be wary of giving him a hard race today If there is a weakness in the favourite, the Hannon horse looks well placed to come out on top. He looked mighty impressive in his 2 races last year and the Hannon's usually have a group one colt for this race.........just in the last few years they've run Olympic Glory, Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs, Paco Boy, all group one winning milers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Very unlucky, done what he thought he had to. I was up and clicking my fingers but the winners came with a flyer. Great tipping as per usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickf88 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th 3:50 Ayr - Baile Anrai - 1pt Win 50/1 Bet365 Was really impressed with this 10 year old gelding last time out, winning a handicap chase at Fakenham in which he battled grimly to hold on to win. He seems to improve the further he goes and although this was the furthest he's run, he seemed like it might have been too short for him. Running off 10 stone in this today and has gone close in good chasing handicaps in the past. Does most of his winning on flat tracks but has won galloping tracks also and enjoys a test of stamina. Hopefully he can outrun his odds in this fiercly competitive race today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Very unlucky' date=' done what he thought he had to. I was up and clicking my fingers but the winners came with a flyer. Great tipping as per usual.[/quote'] I was up myself Justice :rollinThought it was in the bag jumping the last but superb ride by Dean Pratt on the winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th It was brave to go against the Henderson horse but I thought he may have been over the top beforehand. Yours was great Aidy and I wish sometimes that I could see what you see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th It was brave to go against the Henderson horse but I thought he may have been over the top beforehand. Yours was great Aidy and I wish sometimes that I could see what you see! Willoughby made an interesting quote on RUK today Joe, and he is right in my opinion. "Too many punters are too fixated on conventional form and basing their gambles what a horse has done, rather than make a decision on what a horse is possibly capable of" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Well done Joe, on a winner at 2/1, beats a second at any price mate:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Well done Joe' date=' on a winner at 2/1, beats a second at any price mate:clap[/quote'] Watching the race with my horse (the 2nd) put to the sword in a matter of strides, Joe's 2/1 looks like the best value bet of the year ! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Re: BBOTD Saturday 12th Well done Joe' date=' on a winner at 2/1, beats a second at any price mate:clap[/quote'] And that's a fact! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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