BBOTD Saturday 21st September

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Sorry if I've double posted but couldn't see a thread for today.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 2.40 AYR BOOTS AND SPURS @ 25/1 Bet365 BOG .5ew Two wins and three placed efforts from eight runs on Soft or worse and only 6lb higher than latest winning mark. Drawn well in 17 and with all his form coming over further than 6f should be finishing well over this stiff 6f. Trainer had a winner at Ayr yesterday and Jockey 24% for the yard.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September Newmarket 5.55 - The Rectifier 40/1 Corals EW BOG I am going to go for a horse that I think is ridiculously over priced in the hope that the ground is genuinely good ground and not on the soft side. He ran a big race at Redcar scoring comfortably before running a huge race at York beating the inform Smarty Socks and the some times great some times poor Al Muheer. The form hasnt exactly thrown up winners but it was run at a good pace (backed by the TS time) and the form has held its own. He then went to Ripon and flopped but that track doesnt suggest that it would really suit him IMO so if you can ignore that one poor run, he is a horse on the upgrade who has been there and done it in a big field handicap at a top track. If he gets the breaks today and, as already mentioned, the ground stays form enough (no rain predicted) then I can certainly see him outrunning these massive odds.

[joeblitz]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 1.55 Listowel Run With The Wind 5/1 Bet365 BOG Run With The Wind who won on the flat at the festival 2 years ago also won a hurdle at last year's festival. He can now make it 3 in a row by winning this novice chase. A 4 time winner last year including the flat he has been disappointing this year (with the stable out of form until this week) but hinted a return to the winners enclosure was not too far away when finishing 3rd behind Saint Gervais and Steps To Freedom in a much better race than this last time at Killarney. In addition his hurdling form was way better than these. 1 Point win for nap purposes Run With The Wind 5/1 Bet365 BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September

3.30 Newbury: Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) 5f 34yds This race should involve the top few in the betting and if it stays on the soft side it presents a good opportunity for Maarek to get back on the winning trail. He needs plenty of cut to show his best and is well up to winning in this company when things go his way. York Glory and Tickled Pink are respected but I’m not sure the conditions will suit either. Steps and Stepper Point need to improve to win at this level and the class horse in the race Kingsgate Native could do with a dry night but is not out of it despite his penalty.

Selection; Maarek 7/1 bet365

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 13.55 Newmarket - Casual Smile - Win @ 5\2 SJ BOG Beautiful bred filly sired by the great Sea The Stars Derby winner in 2009 and by Dam Casual Look Oaks winner in 2003. 2 racecourse runs so far when 2nd on debut over 7f here at Newmarket putting in a good finish finishing strongly just under a length behind Night Song. Third on latest run in a class 2 conditions race just over a length behind the winner in a 4 runner race, unable to quicken but finishing well over a mile against more experienced fillys. Ground, track and distance will present no problems and i expect her to win this maiden before stepping up in class. Casual Smile is a horse who should be up to listed class and better in the future.

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September

13.55 Newmarket - Casual Smile - Win @ 5\2 SJ BOG Beautiful bred filly sired by the great Sea The Stars Derby winner in 2009 and by Dam Casual Look Oaks winner in 2003. 2 racecourse runs so far when 2nd on debut over 7f here at Newmarket putting in a good finish finishing strongly just under a length behind Night Song. Third on latest run in a class 2 conditions race just over a length behind the winner in a 4 runner race, unable to quicken but finishing well over a mile against more experienced fillys. Ground, track and distance will present no problems and i expect her to win this maiden before stepping up in class. Casual Smile is a horse who should be up to listed class and better in the future.

Sorry looked at wrong horse for price........actually 9\4 with SJ BOG

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 1515 ayr 1pt win valonia 5/2 pp holds a cheveley park entry later in the month, and i think she just may take her place there with another win today,this is a tough race,but i hope the filly can come out in top,2 runs 1 win and a place and the way she won last time there should be some improvement,she has changed owners since,now with the qatar racing limited, but still trained with henry candy and with jamie spencer on board,ground and distance ideal

[Tedthewolf]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 3.50 AYR 0.5 E/W 22/1 OUR JONATHAN BET 365~Former winner as an outstanding chance of regaining the cup quiet run lto but may have been saved for this so ill give him another chance on a cracking mark if can show some of his former form has a cracking e/w chance.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 16.05 Newbury: Master Carpenter @ 5/1 William Hill Master Carpenter is the highest rated horse in this field and on form the strongest contender anyway. He comes in this race after a very strong performance at Doncaster in a hot class 2 Handicap. He travelled really well that day, but got a bit stuck in traffic in a key moment of the race, when the horses in front had the chance to kick on while he had to delay his challenge. Once in the clear he took a while to hit top gear as he doesn't really look to have a decisive turn of foot, not over 7f at least, but it isn't easy for a young horse to demonstrate a sudden acceleration when it's stuck behind other horses and suddenly a gap opens. He finished the race super strongly then tough, to finish in 2nd place. I suspect he gets further and would be suited by a step up in trip to 1m but for now seven furlongs should be fine, particularly on soft ground. His sire Mastercraftsman absolutely relished these kind of conditions and as acceleration isn't really that easy on slow going this should play into Master Carpenter's hands and running style who will stay all the way to the line once he is in full swing.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September A2.40 Take Cover e/w 12/1 Bet365 The horses last 2 runs have resulted in short head defeats and if those had gone the other way the horse would be sitting on a handicap record of 6 from 7. The horses 2nd at 50/1 LTO was a terrific performance on its seasonal debut and I think the trainer might have put the horse away since that run with this race in mind. The draw has also been kind and the booking of Graham Lee is another positive - he has a great record at the track. Even the handicap mark looks fair enough judged on that run LTO and there's a bunch of positives for this unexposed horse which should be in the shake up.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September Ayr 1.30 Light Weight - win at 9/2 bog PP Won his maiden last time by 2 lengths on g/s, extra furlong should help and goes on the ground Still ran green wen winning so there should be more to come Todays favourite, Braidley, looks OK but has gone up 10lbs for winning last time and had more runs than my selection so the handicapper has more evidence to assess him I'm hoping my orse is better than the mark he has having only run twice.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 2:40 Harrison George @ Ayr - Been in some good form of late and was only beaten by three quarters of a length 2 weeks ago @ Haydock over the shorter 5 furlong but was staying on. Has ran here 4 times running well each time and won one of them here in 2009. Jockey Natash Easton was onboard 2 weeks ago and claims a valuable 5lb. Has blinkers and tongue tie on again and can go close here. 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 Bet Victor

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September 14.40 Ayr: Sir Reginald, 16/1 >Paddy Power, e/w (1/4, 12345) Sir Reginald won well lto despite not having the clearest of runs. He was held up in the back of the stands side group. When he started to make progress about 2f out, a horse on his inside hung left and carried SR a bit left. He finished very well to win by a neck from Bertiewhittle. He has only gone up two pounds for that win and he has a good chance of following up here. The ground and trip are ideal. Trainer Richard Fahey is in decent form and he has a solid record at Ayr. Paul Hanagan is a big plus in the saddle, especially in a race like this.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September Joe (5/1) & BH (7/1) with winners today so far; One to run:

Newmarket 5.55 - The Rectifier 40/1 Corals EW BOG I am going to go for a horse that I think is ridiculously over priced in the hope that the ground is genuinely good ground and not on the soft side. He ran a big race at Redcar scoring comfortably before running a huge race at York beating the inform Smarty Socks and the some times great some times poor Al Muheer. The form hasnt exactly thrown up winners but it was run at a good pace (backed by the TS time) and the form has held its own. He then went to Ripon and flopped but that track doesnt suggest that it would really suit him IMO so if you can ignore that one poor run, he is a horse on the upgrade who has been there and done it in a big field handicap at a top track. If he gets the breaks today and, as already mentioned, the ground stays form enough (no rain predicted) then I can certainly see him outrunning these massive odds.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st September Nice one BB, 4th at 40/1:clap