August 5 - August 11

[TD]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Ernests Gulbis vs. Fabio Fognini This second round match at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Montreal between Latvian player Ernests Gulbis and Fabio Fognini from Italy looks like a nice opportunity for a tennis bet in our eyes. The 24-year-old Latvian player Ernests Gulbis is hell of a tennis talent and would easily belong to the Top 10 if the ranking is based on just this criterium. Gulbis has already won 3 ATP Tour titles in his career but he comes from a rich family and his big problems have always been lack of consistency and motivation to perform well on a constant basis. Gulbis really belongs to the category of players with enormous talent but lack of hard work. He has always been able to produce some world class tennis and beat the best players of the game but there were also times when he failed to win back to back matches on any level and when he was ranked well outside the Top 100. Ernests Gulbis even considered a retirement from professional tennis last year but decided to give it another go and it was a really good decision as we can see a totally different Gulbis this year, a player that is finally fulfiling his enormous potential. Right, his recent form hasn´t been that great but he still holds an impressive 37-14 in 2013 including a great 14-1 record on outdoor hard courts with the only lose coming from a match against Rafael Nadal in Indian Wells. The 26-year-old Italian Fabio Fognini is the player with the best form on the ATP Tour, winning two titles in Stuttgart and Hamburg in as many weeks and adding another final appearance in Umag a week after. Also Fognini was always rated as a player with nice potential but his main weaknesses were inconsistency and a hot head. He can play very well and compete with the best players on his good day (clearly shown by his semifinal run at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event in Monte Carlo and his recent run on European clay courts) but can also hit plenty of easy unforced errors and show no interest on tennis court. Fognini considers himself as an all court player but still it is pretty clear that he prefers playing on red clay and has limited success on faster surfaces. It is not easy to predict a result of a match between two highly inconsistent players but normally it should be Ernests Gulbis who should have a clear advantage in this match-up and beat Fabio Fognini who could also feel some tiredness after the heavy schedule in last weeks. The 2.5 games handicap on Gulbis is rather low and the Latvian is more than capable of covering this line. Starting Time: 07 August 2013, 18:00 CET Bet: Gulbis -2.5 games Odds: 1.926 Stake: 8 units Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 3pts E.Gulbis to beat F.Fognini (-2.5 games) 1.80 Bet365 Fognini is really riding a wave right now and it seems to have transitioned to the hard-court too now but I think this is where it ends. Gulbis is a hard-court player and Fognini just isn't. Gulbis has a 10-1 win/loss this year, has beaten the likes of Haas and taken a set from Nadal. Fognini beat Gulbis in their only hard-court encounter but I really can't see him doing it again today. He may take a set though so I'll take the handicap. 1pt J.Levine to win the first set AND lose the match 10.00 Bet365 1pt J.Levine to win first set 7.50 Bet365 Home court here for Levine and Nadal transition play from Clay to Hard again. He didn't look fit enough against Darcis and even if he doesn't feel right here Nadal isn't ever going to retire so maybe, just maybe Levine can take the first set and then Nadal will no doubt grind down and win the match. Id rather throw a point at this then going for the games market as this could be a 6-0 6-0 if Nadal turns up but if he don't Levine can push on and could even win. 2.5pts T.Haas -4.5 games to beat M.Matosevic 2.20 Bet365 Haas has looked decent on the hard-courts recently. He has only lost to Del Potro since returning to the hard from the clay. If he can improve the serving and cut out the double-faults then I see him winning her comfortably. These 2 met last year and Haas covered this handicap that day in straight sets. 2pts F.Dancevic to beat J.Janowicz 3.50 Bet365 Dancevic at home and with a good recent record on the hard-courts, his preferred surface. Janowicz hasn't trained recently and is still slightly injured so he won't be at his best and you could see that as he struggled past Benneteau in the previous round. 2pts N.Davydenko to beat P.Andujar 2-0 1.80 Bet365 Andujar is not a good hard-court player. I don't have a clue what Weintraub was upto in the last round but I will be again against Andujar here. Before beating Weintraub he had only beaten Steve Johnson on the hard-court this year and had a 8/12 win/loss last year too. Davydenko has beaten Ferrer on the hard this year aswell as Youzhny & Tipsarevic. 3pts M.Youzhny to beat M.Raonic 2.20 Bet365 2pts M.Youzhny to win 2-0 3.50 Bet365 Shame I didn't get in to this early this morning as the odds have dropped like a stone. Youzhny will win this. Raonic is rubbish simple as that. Any half decent player beats Raonic nowadays and Youzhny despite his poor record this year loves playing big servers. His record against the likes of Karlo & Isner prove this and I think he should win here 2-0.

[baranowski]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Anybody know the result from game I. Fetecau - A. Vdovenco in ITF Arad (Woman) Thanks!

[Torque]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Marcel Granollers to beat Andy Murray @ 11.00 Betfair I think this might be worth a try, as Granollers is looking quite good at the moment. He got a good win against Dimitrov in the first round, which was all the more impressive as it came only a few days after beating Monaco on clay to win the the title in Kitzbuhel. If Granollers had felt tired then he had the perfect opportunity to bow out of this tournament at the first hurdle, but the fact that he beat Dimitrov makes me think that he is in good shape both physically and mentally. For Murray, this will be his first match since winning Wimbledon and so he might start slowly. He can be lacklustre in the early stages of tournaments such as this, and at this price I think Granollers is good value to continue his recent good run.

[Torque]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Vasek Pospisil to beat Radek Stepanek @ 3.00 >Betfair Pospisil had a big win against Isner yesterday, and so it's possible that he might be a little flat today as a result. However, I think it's worth taking a chance that he is inspired by that win, and that he is able to carry on where he left off when he faces Stepanek. The Czech came through in three sets against Almagro in his first match, which is a decent result, but at the same time it was the Almagro's first match on hard since Miami and his record against Stepanek isn't great. Prior to this tournament, Stepanek played Tursunov in Washington and was very shaky, throwing away a handy lead in the final set and losing to the Russian. Pospisil has been in good form on hard in recent weeks, making the semi-finals in Bogota before winning the Vancouver Challenger last week. The Canadian players have been doing well so far this week and have been getting plenty of support, and so I think Pospisil has a good chance to get the better of his more experienced opponent.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11

Anybody know the result from game I. Fetecau - A. Vdovenco in ITF Arad (Woman) Thanks!

Vdovenco won 2-1.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Benoit Paire (-2.5) to beat Marinko Matosevic for a 2/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle Two superb performances from Paire so far, so I can definitely see him beating Marinko without a lot of difficulties, as he is on a completely different level talent-wise. Marinko will need to be serving really well in order to even stand a chance against the Frenchman, but, even then, getting something from this match might be out of his range. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/paire-vs-matosevic-betting-benoit-paire-should-have-no-problems-against-marinko-matosevic Back Rafael Nadal (-4) to beat Jerzy Janowicz for a 2/10 stake at 1.83 with Pinnacle Nadal put in a convincing performance yesterday, while Janowicz labored to yet another tough win over an opponent that he should be beating much more easily. His serve doesn't seem to be working well right now and he is going to struggle once the rallies get going, so fancy Nadal to cover this line against the Pole today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-janowicz-betting-jerzy-janowicz-might-not-be-able-to-do-much-against-the-world-s-number-four

[Champion]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Stephens tb Radwanska 4.60 3/10 Some shake preformance by Aga lately ( loses wth Stosur or Cibulkova ) , "black Pearl" is talented enough to beat her at the moment , they played twice , every time 3 sets - I think worth a try for this great price!

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Please always remember to mention the bookie :ok.

[Champion]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Rybarikova tb Bartoli 2.75 4/10 Bet 365 Marion overrated as a Wimbledon Champion , I see some problems here , Ryba in great form 7 wins in a row and great counterpuncher style of play , Marion should play her top tennis to beat her , and I dont think she is in best mood right now..

[Herr Wolf]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Hey is there anyone else who thinks that Gulbis will manage to beat Murray today??! The latvian loves to play on hard courts and his serve is exceptional...Murray a bit overrated here and the odds 4.5 or more on any bookie are a must on Gulbis!!! Referring the Rybarikova vs Bartoli I see the 2.75 odd offered at bet365 or Ladbrokes as a gift cause Rybarikova is on her best days at the moment while I don't think that Bartoli will be as focused as she was in Wimbledon. She plays crap at times and moves like a tank and I see big problems for her today!

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11

[... snip...] Cornet + 4.5 games > Kirilenko Navarro + 5.5 games > Stosur ------------------------------- @2.33 local bookie Let's see how this work

That was easy. :ok I made small research and I have found that there were 151 matches this year (that is, up to week #31 inclusive), that included the underdog winning the last two prematch encounters (ATP and WTA level only, ITF/Challengers not included). Of those, the underdog managed to cover +5.5 HCP in 113 cases. Now of course in some of these matches +5.5 was not offered at all, but in some the remaining matches larger HCPs were offered (e.g. Berdych - Zverev in Indian Wells where Misha covered +6.5 HCP with ML odds above 10), so in average in about two thirds of such matches the underdog should cover the large handicap. I am currently trying to identify the markers in matches where he failed to do so. One preliminary result - the rule works better on quicker surfaces than on clay, so it will be of use in the coming swings. No match today meets the required criteria (which is no surprise, because the majority of such matches occur up to round two inclusive), so nothing for me today.

[Torque]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Vasek Pospisil to beat Tomas Berdych @ 6.00 Betfair I'm going to back Pospisil again, as I thought he did very well in beating Stepanek in his last match. Although fatigue could start to be a problem for Pospisil as he has played so much during the last few weeks, I think the confidence that he must be feeling at the moment will help to offset it. He will continue to get good support from the crowd and the adrenaline will be flowing, and I'm not sure how well Berdych will handle playing against the home favourite. I don't read too much into his win in the last round against Dolgopolov, as he has not been in the best of form. Pospisil has played far more matches on hard than Berdych has recently, and that is something in his favour in my opinion. Berdych was knocked out early in his last tournament in Bastad by De Bakker, and whilst this is a more prestigious tournament, I would not be that surprised to see Pospisil continue his fairytale run in Montreal.

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 3pts R.Nadal [-4.5 games] to beat J.Janowicz 2.00 Bet365 I watched both of these twos matches yesterday, in parts and Nadal looks on top form right now. I backed Levine to win first set and the very first game he had advantage and needed to break and didn't and it was all downhill for him from that moment. Nadal won pretty much the remaining games aswell as a 6-0 2nd set. Janowicz was very dodgy with some of his serving, especially when he was serving for the set in both set 1 and 3. Dancevic I also backed and he could of easily won that match. Nadal to win here on the handicap. I wouldn't expect Janowicz to get more than 7 games unless he serves alot better then he did yesterday. 3pts A.Bogomolov to beat N.Davydenko 2.62 Bet365 Davydenko's results just havent convinced me atall. He should of beat Andujar easily and too many times he lost his serve. Shame he didn't lose because players with this much effort deserve to lose. Bogo has beaten Llodra and then David Ferrer. Now maybe Ferrer wasn't giving his all but most important thing is Bogo served well and against Davydenko who practically is giving his serve away it means Bogo should win his own service games and contest Davys which is why I'm betting Bogo. 2pts M.Raonic to beat Del Potro 2.50 Bet365 Yuck! I feel sick but the candians only play for one part of the year and this seems to be it. This bet is more to do with how injured and tired Del Potro looks. He had some treatment on his back and after this treatment he had a really poor set.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 All those missed SPs from both Paire and Nadal just sum up my week perfectly, so I am going to take a break until Monday. Good luck if you decide to get involved.

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Well, I just watched the Berdych's underhand serve again, and I must say that the umpire should go back to school and retire from being the referee in top tennis matches. What a shame....

at 2-4 30:0 in the decider (from Berdy's point of view)

[WinningTipster]

Re: August 5 - August 11 ATP CANADA: RAONIC-GULBIS: RAONIC OVER 13GAMES @ 2.04 on pinnaclesports Bookies place Gulbis as a clear underdog but I think it will be a close match with Gulbis matching Raonic from the baseline and hitting a lot of winners.

[Danby]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Big drift on Pospisil ... 4/6 to 1/1

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11

All those missed SPs from both Paire and Nadal just sum up my week perfectly' date=' so I am going to take a break until Monday. Good luck if you decide to get involved.[/quote'] me too. Hard courts here are too unpredictible. Might wait until grass/clay comes back

[A-Team]

Re: August 5 - August 11

2pts M.Raonic to beat Del Potro 2.50 Bet365 Yuck! I feel sick but the candians only play for one part of the year and this seems to be it. This bet is more to do with how injured and tired Del Potro looks. He had some treatment on his back and after this treatment he had a really poor set.

Solid tip but why at a match complete book? With your reasoning it was completely illogical.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 I think Fader has already explained it on numerous occasions, so just accept that he sticks with Bet365 all the time :)

[WinningTipster]

Re: August 5 - August 11 1 pick for ATP CANADA: RAONIC-NADAL: OVER 20.5 GAMES @ 1.65 on pinnaclesports Nadal always had problems playing big servers. Bookies place him as a clear favorite but I think Raonic will be able to keep it close, at least