August 5 - August 11

[CzechPunter]

:ok

[junesixth]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Fabio Fognini to beat Marco Baghdatis @2.44 Pinnacle, 1st round Montreal Masters 1000 SUCCESS! Fognini has better 1st serve percentage, better form and better h2h, and he's underdog.

[sneazr]

Re: August 5 - August 11 What are people's thoughts on Lopez to beat Gulbis ? Should Gulbis be such a short favourite against anyone, especially someone with a solid serve like the spaniards. Feel like @ $2.65 there is some value in taking Lopez

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11

Fabio Fognini to beat Marco Baghdatis @2.44 Pinnacle, 1st round Montreal Masters 1000 Fognini has better 1st serve percentage, better form and better h2h, and he's underdog.

Completely different on the hard courts. Fognini only has a 68% service game win on the hard this year and only managed that same number the whole of 2012. Baghdatis this year alone is at 87%. Baghdatis is a hard court player and he will do well here I think. The head-2-head you're referring to is both on clay. Last time these 2 played on the hard court Baghdatis won easily 6-2 6-2

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 2pts J.M.Del Potro winning ATP Montreal 8.00 Bet365 One person who has a chance here is Del Potro. He looked alittle tired in the first set against Isner but that could be just getting use to the big serve. I don't believe anyone this year has returned Isner as good as Del Potro did after that 1st serve and it bodes well for Montreal. He won't have no issues atall in his quarter and the price is nicely inflated thanks to Murray being in the quarter. I don't see Murray beating Del Potro right now. He has a better record then Del Potro but last time out Del Potro won and I think he will this week too. I can see Del Potro making the final and likelihood of him playing Djokovic and he beat Djokovic recently on the hard so this seems like good value to me if he isn't too jaded.

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 2pts L.Rosol to beat A.Seppi 3.00 Bet365 Pure value call. Head-2-head reads 2-1 to Seppi. Rosol beat him on the indoor hard courts back in 2012 whilst Seppi won this year on the outdoor hard courts in Dubai. That win, though had a tie-break in set 1. I think this match will be closer then the odds reflect so I'm going to go with the value here. 2pts A.Weintraub to beat P.Andujar 2-0 2.50 Bet365 Bookies going on the name of Andujar here. Weintraub has beat both Ramos & Karlovic in the quallies so he can take a decent serve and return it. Andujar just does not possess any weapons on the hard courts and his record reflects that. Weintraub should win here and I can't see Andujar knuckling down to grind out a set so 2-0 for me.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 As far as I know, Rosol is currently carrying an injury, although it is true that Seppi can sometimes throw matches away quite easily regardless of the opponent.

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 I don't know of any injury to Rosol. Where did you hear that? Only thing I can find is a bicep strain earlier in the year.

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11 WTA Toronto Lauren Davis to bt Svetlana Kuznetsova @2.52 Local bookie (5/10) These two played only yesterday and Davis won 5-7 6-4 6-4. Kuzzy not in her best form lately - she was injured (abdominal strain) in past couples of weeks, and before she went to Carlsbad last week, her last match was French Open Quarterfinal. Then she did not play for nearly two months. Lost to Razzano in R1 at Carlsbad, and now she lost in qualies to Lauren Davis in Toronto. It looked like she is glad to leave, howevever she became Lucky Loser after Azarenka and N.Petrova withdrew, and guess what - she meets Lauren again in R1 :-) The odds on Lauren were around 4 in the qualies, so the bookies adjusted it a bit for the next match, but still I think that Lauren should be the fav in this match.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Jie Zheng to beat Mona Barthel for a 2/10 stake at 2.80 with Pinnacle Neither of the two is in a particularly exciting form, but I would except Zheng to be fully ready for this one, as she is one of those players that virtually never turn up without being ready. She can certainly put up a decent fight and that might be all that will be needed against Barthel, who seems to struggling with her big hitting these days. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zheng-vs-barthel-betting-jie-zheng-look-value-against-mona-barthel-over-in-toronto Back Carol Zhao to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova for a 2/10 stake at 4.77 with Pinnacle A gulf of class between the two obviously, but Pavlyuchenko has been missing for some time after being awful in this year's Wimbledon and this could be a good chance to go against her. Zhao defeated Begu in straight sets yesterday, so she can play decent tennis by the looks of things and could go through if Pavlyuchenko isn't fully fit and ready yet. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/zhao-vs-pavlyuchenkova-betting-going-against-anastasia-pavlyuchenkova-could-be-the-right-idea-today Back Alize Lim to win WTA Suzhou for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power Back Michaella Krajicek to win WTA Suzhou for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power An unspectacular event in China, but that could give some of the less-fancied names a chance to shine and I can see the likes of Alize Lim and Michaella Krajicek going far. Krajicek is good enough to trouble - and even beat - anyone in the draw, while Lim seems to be in a pretty decent nick right now and her draw looks more than acceptable in all fairness. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-suzhou-betting-less-fancied-players-could-go-well-in-the-small-wta-event-in-china-this-week

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11

I don't know of any injury to Rosol. Where did you hear that? Only thing I can find is a bicep strain earlier in the year.

He said that he is struggling with his hip after losing in Wimbledon and that he is planning to undergo an operation later this year. Judging by his recent record, that might still be an issue.

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11 ^^ Begu was awful thoughout all this season. I would not read much from Zhao's win. Pavly has got two WTA titles plus one WTA final this season, is killer on hard, and her new coach Hingis would be rather sad if she would lose her very first match in US Open swing, LOL... However, I agree with Mona Barthel pick and I am on Zheng's train, too

[lelit]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Hingis isn't her coach anylonger. Her former coach (brother?) is working with her again.

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11 ^^ That's news to me - info I have is from official WTA site and her own website. Thx for correcting it. Do you know what happened? She acquired Hingis only in may this year... edit-OK I have found it. You are right. They have split in June and I have missed that. It looks like namely Hingis was the cause of her bad results of late. I am really curious how she is going to play under her old coach now..

[lelit]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Whole story: http://en.rian.ru/sports/20130617/181711499.html

[ayjayvolta]

Re: August 5 - August 11 http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=cs&ie=UTF-8&u=http://gb.cri.cn/41280/2013/07/28/6012s4197395.htm would like to know what the vets think after this article showing Zheng's illness the past week or so... would you still be confident in a Zheng win? I'm looking at the Hard Court stats on tennisinsight and it seems most of the stats favour Barthel....

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 That match made my bloody eyes bleed! 3-1 up 4-2 up and loses 7-6. All too familiar for me.

[Torque]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Peter Polansky to beat Kei Nishikori @ 8.00 >Betfair I took this earlier and the price has come in, and I still think there is some value to be had at anything above 6.00 that is available on the exchanges. Polansky has had a couple of good wins in qualifying against Lacko and Kubot, and should also have the support of the crowd here. Nishikori didn't look too great in Atlanta last week, struggling initially against Sock before being soundly beaten by Baghdatis. I didn't expect that he would lose that match so easily, and so I wonder if Nishikori was struggling with some kind of physical problem. If he was, and if it carries over into this match, then Polansky might have a chance to cause an upset against the ninth seed.

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Jeremy Chardy to beat Milos Raonic for a 2/10 stake at 3.49 with Pinnacle Raonic has been absolutely dreadful in recent weeks and I can see Chardy beating him if the Canadian doesn't turn up once again. I would be willing to forgive him for the grass court season, but he wasn't convincing last week either and the surface in Montreal shouldn't give a lot of joy to the guys that cannot live without their serves, so there you go, this looks like a price worth taking. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chardy-vs-raonic-betting-jeremy-chardy-to-bounce-back-with-a-win-on-tuesday Back Andreas Seppi to beat Kei Nishikori for a 2/10 stake at 2.84 with Pinnacle There has to be something wrong with Kei Nishikori, as his recent results wouldn't make much sense otherwise. Meanwhile, Andreas Seppi seems to be at his standard level really, which will be more than enough for a win here if Nishikori continues with his run of suspicious performances. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/seppi-vs-nishikori-betting-andreas-seppi-looks-value-against-kei-nishikori-in-montreal Back Hantuchova/Hingis vs Kerber/Kvitova for a 3/10 stake at 1.61 with William Hill I have some slight worries about Hantuchova and that is why I am not going to stake more than three units here, but Hantuchova and Hingis are much stronger than Kerber and Kvitova, who are going to play together for the very first time, when it comes to doubles. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hantuchova-hingis-vs-kerber-kvitova-betting-martina-hingis-can-continue-her-comeback-with-yet-another-victory

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11 4pts J.Chardy to beat M.Raonic 3.25 Bet365 2pts J.Chardy to win 2-0 5.00 Bet365 I'm going against Raonic again here. He is at a barron spell right now and until he improves his return he won't ever progress. Chardy is by no means a fantastic hard-court player, but then neither is Matosevic who beat Raonic last week. Chardy this year had a fantastic Australian Open in which he beat Granollers, Seppi & most impressively Del Potro. Last year he also beat Murray on the hard-courts. Chardy can also serve well and although maybe not to Raonic's big serve standard he has still hit 86 aces this year on the hard so Raonic will have a tough time breaking and Chardy is 100% the better returner. Head-2-head reads 1-0 to Raonic last year in paris but that was the indoor hard and even that match went to 3 sets & 2 tie-breaks. Raonic if he goes 1 set down can lose heart and if that happens this could easily be a repeat of the Matosevic game so I'm also going for 2-0 Chardy. Either way this is value and I'm all about value. Anyone that wants a surer bet maybe plump for games.

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Time to try something different, so I designed me a strong parlay for today: D.Cibulkova +4.5 games > A.Kerber J.Hampton +2.5 games > C.S.Navarro M.Baghdatis +2.5 games > F.Fognini ----------------------------------------- @2.63 locall bookie (8/10) In the Kerber-Cibulkova match, Kerber is the fav, but, strange enough, Cibu leads H2H 3-0. Obviously Cibu is bad matchup for Angelique. And Cibu is in good form, winning Stanford two weeks ago. It's a fact that Cibu has mental problems now and then and can hand out the already won match, but this is mostly in the later stages of tournamens. The PLUS hcp should hold solid. Hampton is the slight fav in C.S.Navarro match. Navarro leads H2H 1-0 by having beaten Jamie in Miami this year 5-7 7-5 7-6(3). However, the stats say that actually Jamie has won more points in that match. I expect close battle, but I believe that the safety PLUS hcp is going to hold, unless Jamie explodes and is going to be bagelised in the 1st set. Fabio comes from an unbelievable clay run, and IMO he must be at least a bit exhausted. They met 3 times with Marcos. Foggy won two matches on clay in two and Baggy won one match on hard in two. Again, Baggy is the slight fav in this match, so I expect the safety PLUS hcp to hold. GL :hope

[junesixth]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Chardy vs Raonic tiebreak in 1st set YES @3.0 Bet365, 1st round Montreal Master, hard court FAILED. Raonic 63 46 75. Both Chardy and Raonic are terrible returners/ ball bashers but their serve is so big and reliable. If they hold the few first games to 0 it would be a quick way to a tiebreak first set. Score prediction: Raonic 76 36 75

[Fader]

Re: August 5 - August 11

Chardy vs Raonic tiebreak in 1st set YES @3.0 Bet365, 1st round Montreal Master, hard court Both Chardy and Raonic are terrible returners/ ball bashers but their serve is so big and reliable. If they hold the few first games to 0 it would be a quick way to a tiebreak first set. Score prediction: Raonic 76 36 75

Both are not great servers but Chardy moves around the court much faster and is more agile IMO. So them points where "who wants it the most" I would imagine will be going to Chardy. He beat Tsonga last year in this competition and Tsonga was serving at a very acceptable 73% so he is certainly the "better" of the two when it comes to a return game.

[WinningTipster]

Re: August 5 - August 11 2 picks for tomorrow WTA matches: WTA CANADA STEPHENS TO DEFEAT BARTHEL @ 1.63 on pinnaclesports Barthel is struggling with fitness and form, not at her best and makes a lot of unforced errors. WTA SUZHOU ZHANG TO DEFEAT LERTCHEEWAKARN @ 1.3 on paddy power / betsson / interwetten Zhang is a very consistent player who hits a lot of balls back. Always plays well at home, should be too good for the Thai player.

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11

Lauren Davis to bt Svetlana Kuznetsova @2.52 Local bookie (5/10) WIN

Never in slightest doubt. Except perhaps when Kuzzy was serving for the match at 6-3 5-4. But then who said that WTA is for weak nerves.. :-)

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11 What this fat stupid Baggy is doing is unbelievable :spank Looks like after winning the first set 6-1 he is not going to cover the +2.5 handicap. If this will be the case, I am done with betting this season. Owerwhelming frustration. Baggy banned for life. and thats it 6-1 1-6 1-6 See ya in january 2014

[brecki]

Re: August 5 - August 11

See ya in january 2014

You will NEVER manage that !!! :lol (as your discipline is like mine)

[CzechPunter]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov (+1.5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych for a 2/10 stake at 2.09 with Pinnacle Back Aleksandr Dolgopolov to beat Tomas Berdych for a 1/10 stake at 4.01 with Pinnacle Good price on Dolgo here. He is basically a hit or miss player, but he seems to be in the hit phase right now due to the win over Anderson and he has always been able to trouble Berdych, taking a set off the Czech on all three occasions, which is a solid record. And yep, have I mentioned that this will be the first match of the week for Berdych, who was dreadful last time out in Bastad? Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dolgopolov-vs-berdych-betting-aleksandr-dolgopolov-can-shine-in-montreal-today Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Milos Raonic for a 2/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365 Going against Raonic once again really, as he could have easily lost against Chardy from what I know. Youzhny is a decent step up in quality from Chardy, but the things that really make this a bet for me is the fact that Raonic is still under-performing, while Youzhy seems to be in a really good nick right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/youzhny-vs-raonic-betting-mikhail-youzhny-should-be-able-to-deal-with-milos-raonic Back Eugenie Bouchard to beat Petra Kvitova for a 2/10 stake at 3.00 with Paddy Power A speculative bet really, although Bouchard is talented enough to beat Kvitova on home soil given how average the Czech has been lately. The main reason for this bet, however, is the fact that I have seen Kvitova in the doubles yesterday and that she looked quite hopeless during much of that match, not being able to negotiate the surface really. That may change and she should win really, but the price is too good for me to ignore it. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bouchard-vs-kvitova-betting-eugenie-bouchard-looks-value-against-the-czech-number-one-in-toronto

[homunculus]

Re: August 5 - August 11

You will NEVER manage that !!! :lol (as your discipline is like mine)

Heh, you are right mate :-) The Hampton loss 4-6 4-6 somehow removed the shame from Baggy and moved it on my shoulders. It was me who screwed this parlay. However, my new bookie offers superlarge handicaps on relatively good odds, so I decided to examine the idea further, although only with symbolic stake amounts untill the concept proves healthy. The idea is basically this: 1) Look for the match where the underdog leads in last two H2H encounters. 2) If at least two such matches are found, take those with the most consistent underdogs. 3) Pair two selected matches in a two-leg parlay with largest +HCP's found. The total odds should be above 2.0. 4) If this does not work, try the same the next day with doubled stakes, but 2 additional times at max. Today there are 3 matches in meeting the Criterium 1) (all WTA) Cornet-Kirilenko Stosur-Navarro Bertens-Flipkens (only 1 H2H match here) I decided to leave Kiki out and produced the following: Cornet + 4.5 games > Kirilenko Navarro + 5.5 games > Stosur ------------------------------- @2.33 local bookie Let's see how this work

[Banner]

Re: August 5 - August 11 Gulbis -2.5 to beat Fognini - Unibet @ 1.9 This match features Ernest Gulbis ranked 38th in the world and Fabio Fognini ranked 16th in the world. The head to head reads 2-1 Gublis. Gulbis also won the most recent match between these two, which also covered the handicap being offered today, this match was also played on Fognini's favourite surface clay. However today we are playing on hard court which will suit Gulbis's game more. Ernests Gulbis has won 15 of last 16 on Hard Court and his only loss came against Rafa Nadal this season! This season Gulbis has beat the likes of Blake, Querrey, Haas, Seppi, Tipsarevic and Lopez x2 on hard court this shows how well he is playing on the surface this season. Fognini is poor on hard courts winning just 30 matches and losing 59 when playing on the ATP tour. Compare this with Gulbis who has won 89 matches to 79 loses on hard court. Its obvious to see who is the better hard court player. In the first round Gulbis played the inform Lopez. Gulbis went a break down early on but was impressive from then on, playing some great tennis and won in straight sets! However Fognini was playing an out of form Baghdatis in the first round, he won the match 2-1. But it was far from convincing losing the first set 6-1. Baghdatis was then poor for the remainder of the match which allowed Fognini to dominate. I can only see one winner here. Gulbis's game suit this surface alot more than Fognini. Im expecting a comfortable win for Gulbis!