CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

[HastGill1]

Here we go again! :lol..The qualifying matches are upon us, the 1st round qualification matches are, as you can imagine, played out between the total minnows of nations like Andorra, San Marino, Luxembourg etc. but as the regulars will know there are differing levels of crap even at this lowly level. I have listed out some results below of the previous couple of seasons at this stage of qualifying (which I hope to do for all the qualifying rounds depending on time), this information can't be used directly but is a useful reference point, the odds certainly reflect the difference between the sides..as expected teams from San Marino and Andorra usually get a hiding, for example Tre Penne lost 11-0 on aggregate to Dudelange, who to be fair had a very good side last year and knocked out Salzburg which was easily the biggest surprise of the qualifying rounds. I have listed what the average odds were for 1X2 in the first and second legs so that lets you know what we are likely to be dealing with here if you choose to back against Tre Penne. 2011-2012 FC Santa Coloma (And) v F91 Dudelange (Lux) - 0-4 1st Leg 0:2 (1)4.7 (X)3.5 (2)1.66 2nd Leg 2:0 (1)1.18 (X)6.2 (2)12.1 Tre Fiori (Sma) v Valletta (Mlt) 1-5 1st Leg 0:3 (1)9.8 (X)5.5 (2)1.23 2nd Leg 2:1 (1)1.06 (X)9.6 (2)18.6 2012-2013 F91 Dudelange (Lux) v Tre Penne (Sma) - 11-0 1st Leg 7:0 (1)1.10 (X)8.0 (2)17.0 2nd Leg 0:4 (1)12.5 (X)6.6 (2)1.17 Valletta FC (Mlt) v FC Lusitanos (And) 9-0 1st Leg 8:0 (1)1.14 (X)6.9 (2)14.0 2nd Leg 0:1 (1)10.5 (X)6.0 (2)1.21 Linfield (NIR) v B36 Torshavn (Far) 0-0 (4-3 Pens) 1st Leg 0:0 (1)1.18 (X)6.3 (2)11.2 2nd Leg 0:0 (1)3.8 (X)3.37 (2)1.87 First qualifying round draw (2 and 9 July) FC Shirak (ARM) 0.850 (UEFA Co Efficient rating) v SP Tre Penne (SMR) 1.383 FC Lusitans (AND) 1.100 v v EB/Streymur (FRO) 2.316 What do we know about Shirak? Well, a little bit. Armenian football is on the rise and after watching them thump Denmark 4-0 away recently in the WC Qual they certainly have some decent, quick, counter attacking players. Shirak have a few players in the national squad but they aren't regulars and the Armenian national team draws its players from larger European sides. I see one of their star players has left Yoro Lamine Ly (Senegal) who has gone to Israel, was their leading scorer last season. Ismaël Fofana (striker Ivory Coast) scored 14 goals before Christmas then went on loan to a club in Iran, his loan is now finished though and he is still contracted to the club so hopefully he will come back into the team, not sure what his situation is though. They have a few other foreign players and Karen Muradyan (20) who has played a couple of times for Armenia recently. From just looking at Tre Penne's results over the last few years you can see how terrible they are in European competition, . Both clubs play in a season simililar to England's so no advantage there, I remember from Tre Penne last year they had two real old boys up front and no real young talent, the Italians in the team were 35+, and obviously this is full timers v part timers. I'm not sure why but Tre Penne were trying to get the 1st leg moved to San Marino - and Shirak agreed to the request - but UEFA (unsurprisingly) said no, perhaps had something to do with the availability of players working this game around their jobs? Can only speculate. Marathon are the only ones who have priced it up so far and go 1.08 which is probably about right, doubt if anyone will go above 1.1 for the straight win. When the prices are available (the prices I have put below are guesses) I will be going for: Shirak -1EH - 1.35? 10 Points Shirak -2EH - 1.55? 10 Points Shirak -3EH - 1.95? 5 Points Shirak to Win to Nil - 1.5? - 10 Points In the other game EB Streymur might be a half decent price to beat Lusitans, both teams are part timers but the timing of the game might be crucial. Streymur are in the middle of their season sitting in third place currently, whereas Lusitans aren't due to start their season until mid September. In the past 3 seasons Lusitans have played 6 Europa League and CL qualifiers, they have lost them all and scored only one goal in the process - 0-6,0-5 Rabnicki (Macedonia), 0-1,1-5 Varazdin (Croatia), 0-1,0-8 Valletta (Malta). Streymur have gone out in all their first ties as well in the last three years 0-4 to Kalmar and on away goals to both Qarabag (Aze) and Gandzasar (Armenia). I would expect Streymur to go through after two legs certainly but the away game will probably be tight - draw or a 1 goal win certainly possible, so I don't think a handicap bet is possible, perhaps under 2.5 will be more playable.

[IrishTW]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July "I'm not sure why but Tre Penne were trying to get the 1st leg moved to San Marino" Irish and Welsh clubs do this all the time, it is to attract a bigger crowd when the aggregate score is still level, and also possibly a better TV deal, rather than going away, getting a hiding and having the home leg a non-event.

[Jase82]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 2 July 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Shirak Gumri v SP Tre Penne (14:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.08 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 31 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Lusitanos v EB/Streymur (18:30 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.85 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 16 July 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Birkirkara v NK Maribor (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.58 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Celtic v Cliftonville (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.08 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] CS Fola Esch v Dinamo Zagreb (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.08 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ekranas v FH Hafnarfjördur (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.85 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC BATE Borisov v FC Shakhter Karagandy (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.78 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Viktoria Plzen v FK Željeznicar (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.14 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Györi ETO v Maccabi Tel Aviv (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.97 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] HJK Helsinki v Nõmme JK Kalju (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.6 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.80 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] IF Elfsborg v FC Daugava Daugavpils (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.13 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 13.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] PFC Neftchi v KS Skënderbeu Korçë (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.3 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.44 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sheriff Tiraspol v FK Sutjeska (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.23 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.78 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Sligo Rovers v Molde (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.95 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.90 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Slovan Bratislava v Ludogorets Razgrad (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.94 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Steaua Bucuresti v FK Vardar (19:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.18 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]111.80 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[mtom]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July So, it's this time of the year again, when the waiters and the teachers get their chance to play CL qualifiers and, hopefully, bring us some cash! At first glance Maribor stands out @1.50. I believe it was quite surprising that Birkirkara won the Maltese champions this year and I seriously doubt their team can oppose the Slovenian champions. I'll have to have a deeper look at both sides, but for now I lean towards an away victory or over 2.5 goals, if the odds are higher than 1.70. The other game I have on my radar is Slovan - Ludogorets. This will be second chance in a row for the Bulgarian champions to try and enter the CL. They have a solid squad, which they are currently strengthening (though, I don't want to go into details on how they are doing it, and i sincerely hope they bankrupt soon!) but if we leave aside my disdain towards them, they might be value at the current odds. I don't know much about Slovan, but this won't be an easy game for them. Under 2.5 is definitely a good option, but I'll have to wait for the odds and backing Ludogorets in some way should also be good idea. Will be back some time next week with more precise picks. Good luck!

[Alexc]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

Here we go again! :lol..The qualifying matches are upon us, the 1st round qualification matches are, as you can imagine, played out between the total minnows of nations like Andorra, San Marino, Luxembourg etc. but as the regulars will know there are differing levels of crap even at this lowly level. I have listed out some results below of the previous couple of seasons at this stage of qualifying (which I hope to do for all the qualifying rounds depending on time), this information can't be used directly but is a useful reference point, the odds certainly reflect the difference between the sides..as expected teams from San Marino and Andorra usually get a hiding, for example Tre Penne lost 11-0 on aggregate to Dudelange, who to be fair had a very good side last year and knocked out Salzburg which was easily the biggest surprise of the qualifying rounds. I have listed what the average odds were for 1X2 in the first and second legs so that lets you know what we are likely to be dealing with here if you choose to back against Tre Penne. 2011-2012 FC Santa Coloma (And) v F91 Dudelange (Lux) - 0-4 1st Leg 0:2 (1)4.7 (X)3.5 (2)1.66 2nd Leg 2:0 (1)1.18 (X)6.2 (2)12.1 Tre Fiori (Sma) v Valletta (Mlt) 1-5 1st Leg 0:3 (1)9.8 (X)5.5 (2)1.23 2nd Leg 2:1 (1)1.06 (X)9.6 (2)18.6 2012-2013 F91 Dudelange (Lux) v Tre Penne (Sma) - 11-0 1st Leg 7:0 (1)1.10 (X)8.0 (2)17.0 2nd Leg 0:4 (1)12.5 (X)6.6 (2)1.17 Valletta FC (Mlt) v FC Lusitanos (And) 9-0 1st Leg 8:0 (1)1.14 (X)6.9 (2)14.0 2nd Leg 0:1 (1)10.5 (X)6.0 (2)1.21 Linfield (NIR) v B36 Torshavn (Far) 0-0 (4-3 Pens) 1st Leg 0:0 (1)1.18 (X)6.3 (2)11.2 2nd Leg 0:0 (1)3.8 (X)3.37 (2)1.87 First qualifying round draw (2 and 9 July) FC Shirak (ARM) 0.850 (UEFA Co Efficient rating) v SP Tre Penne (SMR) 1.383 FC Lusitans (AND) 1.100 v v EB/Streymur (FRO) 2.316 What do we know about Shirak? Well, a little bit. Armenian football is on the rise and after watching them thump Denmark 4-0 away recently in the WC Qual they certainly have some decent, quick, counter attacking players. Shirak have a few players in the national squad but they aren't regulars and the Armenian national team draws its players from larger European sides. I see one of their star players has left Yoro Lamine Ly (Senegal) who has gone to Israel, was their leading scorer last season. Ismaël Fofana (striker Ivory Coast) scored 14 goals before Christmas then went on loan to a club in Iran, his loan is now finished though and he is still contracted to the club so hopefully he will come back into the team, not sure what his situation is though. They have a few other foreign players and Karen Muradyan (20) who has played a couple of times for Armenia recently. From just looking at Tre Penne's results over the last few years you can see how terrible they are in European competition, . Both clubs play in a season simililar to England's so no advantage there, I remember from Tre Penne last year they had two real old boys up front and no real young talent, the Italians in the team were 35+, and obviously this is full timers v part timers. I'm not sure why but Tre Penne were trying to get the 1st leg moved to San Marino - and Shirak agreed to the request - but UEFA (unsurprisingly) said no, perhaps had something to do with the availability of players working this game around their jobs? Can only speculate. Marathon are the only ones who have priced it up so far and go 1.08 which is probably about right, doubt if anyone will go above 1.1 for the straight win. When the prices are available (the prices I have put below are guesses) I will be going for: Shirak -1EH - 1.35? 10 Points Shirak -2EH - 1.55? 10 Points Shirak -3EH - 1.95? 5 Points Shirak to Win to Nil - 1.5? - 10 Points In the other game EB Streymur might be a half decent price to beat Lusitans, both teams are part timers but the timing of the game might be crucial. Streymur are in the middle of their season sitting in third place currently, whereas Lusitans aren't due to start their season until mid September. In the past 3 seasons Lusitans have played 6 Europa League and CL qualifiers, they have lost them all and scored only one goal in the process - 0-6,0-5 Rabnicki (Macedonia), 0-1,1-5 Varazdin (Croatia), 0-1,0-8 Valletta (Malta). Streymur have gone out in all their first ties as well in the last three years 0-4 to Kalmar and on away goals to both Qarabag (Aze) and Gandzasar (Armenia). I would expect Streymur to go through after two legs certainly but the away game will probably be tight - draw or a 1 goal win certainly possible, so I don't think a handicap bet is possible, perhaps under 2.5 will be more playable.

Very good post, as usual, but I think you're jumping the gun a bit, mate. There's no doubt at all bookies check this and other betting forums, and I'd wait before you get any bets on before you post, you're probably short-changing yourself.

[swindonfan]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

Very good post' date=' as usual, but I think you're jumping the gun a bit, mate. There's no doubt at all bookies check this and other betting forums, and I'd wait before you get any bets on before you post, you're probably short-changing yourself.[/quote'] Its a good point. I am not sure how true it is though. i think bookies do very little until they see a bit of money coming in for a certain team then they look into why thats happening and lower the price. For example william hill have Celtic at home for the first leg even though it has been changed and now cliftonville are at home. That suggests they are paying very little attention until people start backing Cliftonville at a value price thinking they can get away with it. HastGills posts here are still superb though. As you say.

[swindonfan]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July The New Saints 1st leg has been moved to Wrexham. Worth noting because they lose the advantage of the plastic pitch.

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

The New Saints 1st leg has been moved to Wrexham. Worth noting because they lose the advantage of the plastic pitch.

Back a few years ago I would back against Irish and Welsh teams almost blindly because they were so hopeless in Europe. They have certainly got better - the Irish teams have anyway - and I wouldn't be so confident about them folding to handicap defeats at home anymore. TNS have been in the CL qualifiers for years and years now, I don't understand why teams through away the only advantage they have (their home ground) to make a few extra quid, it is very likely Legia would go through anyway, but seems odd to me. They held Helsinborg last year at home (on their own pitch) before losing the second leg away and got thumped by Anderlecht (at Wrexhams ground) the year before. PG_Yid is the man for Welsh football so sure he will offer some useful info on TNS. Legia Warsaw have interestingly just signed Dossa Junior who was centre back for AEL Limmassol last year, a few might remember we (or I at least!) had some heavy bets on Limassol last year in these qualifiers due to their outstanding defensive record, Junior was certainly the main component of that defence so it would appear to be a good signing..1.3 isn't an amazing price, the way I go I would have to bet a handicap rather than a single at that price and I'm not sure I would trust them to cover it away. I would certainly be confident betting on them at home to TNS though as they generally struggle away, losing all their 6 previous away CL games and only scoring once in the process. If you are interested in sides getting an advantage from plastic pitches Elfsborg were good at home last year on a plastic pitch, came through a few EL qualifiers against sides who couldn't get to grips with it, beat one side 8 or 9-0 if I remember correctly, I might well have a punt on them again, they are also in their season which gives them an advantage. I would certainly expect them to beat the handicap against a side who have lost at the first qualifying round in the EL for the last two seasons.

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

FC Shirak (ARM) 0.850 (UEFA Co Efficient rating) v SP Tre Penne (SMR) 1.383 Shirak -1EH - 1.35? 10 Points Shirak -2EH - 1.55? 10 Points Shirak -3EH - 1.95? 5 Points Shirak to Win to Nil - 1.5? - 10 Points

Bet365 have set the ball rolling with -2.5-3.0AH at 1.7 which seems reasonable enough, I have put an initial 7.5 Points on, bwin go 1.25 for the -1EH..if I can get -1EH at even 1.3 anywhere I will be hammering it into the ground. They should win this by at least 4 or 5.

[pg_yid]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July I am having a look at the Welsh games for this and the Europa League and will come back with some previews by tomorrow. I haven't been keeping up with the transfer market in Wales, and I think it's been quite busy, so need to do some research. Whilst Shirak vs Tre Penne is a certain home win, I am a bit wary of the handicaps because as I recall Armenian sides are incredibly underish in European football. Saying that the quality difference is so big it probably won't matter all that much.

[Alexc]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

Its a good point. I am not sure how true it is though. i think bookies do very little until they see a bit of money coming in for a certain team then they look into why thats happening and lower the price. For example william hill have Celtic at home for the first leg even though it has been changed and now cliftonville are at home. That suggests they are paying very little attention until people start backing Cliftonville at a value price thinking they can get away with it. HastGills posts here are still superb though. As you say.

I suppose we don't know what it is, but it seems too much of a coincidence to me how stuff gets posted on any forum and five minutes later the odds change. I use another forum and there's a certain cup competition that is always a money maker, but it's dramatically less so than before people started posting about it. Now the folks on there just private message any proper picks. Anyway, not to clog this forum up with off-topic stuff. I've taken the 1.0833 outright at Hills on Shirak as I think that's good odds in this situation, but will wait to see what sort of handicaps are offered elsewhere.

[MPLouis]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

Its a good point. I am not sure how true it is though. i think bookies do very little until they see a bit of money coming in for a certain team then they look into why thats happening and lower the price.

My guess is that real money staked is a much stronger lever than words on a message board. On some speciality markets I've noticed that when I have a small bet the odds go straight down, so I don't think it takes that much to move some market odds.

[swindonfan]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July In general on the Welsh teams and I follow welsh football a little. Last few years in Europe has been TNS, Llanelli(Before it all went pear shaped) Bangor and Neath(Before it went pear shaped). This year Prestyn, Bala, TNS, Airbus. In previous years the sides have been much much stronger in my view. Llanelli and Neath were both full time. The Welsh Premier seems to be in a bit of a crisis due to lack of support and a general lack of money. What this has meant is that a lot of welsh premier players prefer to play for clubs in the blue sq north or south because they can get payed more. This has meant the quality of the welsh league has deteriorated greatly. I expect this to show in their european results this year. Its only really TNS that stay the same because they have the funding. TNS won the league by 22 points last season. Previous seasons it has usually gone to the wire with Bangor or llanelli. It wasnt because TNS were particularly good last year it was because the standard of the others had dropped dramatically in a short space of time.

[MPLouis]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July I know it's a minor point, but only the two games with first legs on 2nd July are actually the 'First qualifying round' - the games on week starting 15th July are the 'Second qualifying round' ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_UEFA_Champions_League#Qualifying_rounds

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July Well, the odds are starting to be released for the Shirak game and some of them ain't brilliant! :lol They do get better as you work your way up the handicaps though. My hope for -1EH at 1.3 looks a bit fanciful with betvictor the best at 1.14 and can't bet with them anyway, so I've abandoned that bet. Glad I took the 1.7 bet365 offered for the -2.5,-3.0AH last night as it's now sunk to 1.475 overnight..Betinternet have the most prices out and one of the better ones looks like a HT -1.0AH at 1.45, be very surprised in the part-timers hold out until half time at 0-0 and even if Shirak are only up by 1 goal you get your stake back..-2.5AH is 1.45 also which is probably about right, I've taken that for a few points, when some others get more prices out we might find a 1.5 or 1.55, depends whether the odds continue to sink today I guess. More than happy to take the 2.05 for -3.5AH, 10 Points on that. Win to nil might be available tomorrow (1.3 with betint currently), not interested in that price. Not much more news available for the game, it kicks off at 14:00GMT (17:00 local time) which could be a factor as the weather in Ljevan is likely to be 90F deg +, and that kick-off time means it won't have cooled off by much. I used to focus too much on how weather conditions might affect these games so I don't generally anymore, to be honest I haven't seen it make a huge difference to teams for a while, probably only a couple of times in recent years like Glentoran in Tel Aviv where they died in the second half and Linfield in Limassol last year where they struggled with it massively. It's only about 75F deg in San Marino currently and with the part-timers v full-timers element also I think it might make a marginal difference as the game goes on. Team news is hugely difficult to get hold of from here, all I can offer is that they've signed a Ghanaian mid Jacob Apau who plays for the U20's national side can't imagine he will be involved though, and midfielder Levon Pachajyan who looks to be a regular squad player has been released, hopefully they have someone to replace the goals of Lamine Ly up front if Fofana isn't available. My bets so far are below.. Shirak -1.0AH HT Handicap - 1.45 - betinternet - 10 Points Shirak -2.5AH - 1.45 - betinternet - 5 Points Shirak -2.5,-3.0AH - 1.7 - bet365 - 7.5 Points Shirak -3.5AH - 2.05 - betinternet - 10 Points

[swindonfan]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July Surprised your not going with both teams to score No in the Shirak game Hastgill. People couldnt get enough of it last night on betfair. £10000 matched. I got 1.6 at Bwin. Happy with that.

[Alexc]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July It isn't actually San Marino though, just one of their club teams, so a clean sheet, whilst very likely safe, probably not as secure as when the national side plays. Think it was a couple of seasons ago, maybe 2010, Tre Penne scored three goals over two legs against another Bosnian team. Did lose the home leg 9-2 I think though :lol

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

Surprised your not going with both teams to score No in the Shirak game Hastgill. People couldnt get enough of it last night on betfair. £10000 matched. I got 1.6 at Bwin. Happy with that.

I didn't really think about it until you posted that to be honest. I am already quite overexposed on this so probably shouldn't do much more as I'm flirting with disaster :lol..taken a few points at 1.51, don't think I'd go below that though, as Alex says this isn't Italy v San Marino they are playing an Armenian club side. They are certainly far better than them but I'm betting this reasonably blind and you never know what might happen, I couldn't resist having a cheeky punt on -5AH at 4.9 though..in for a penny in for a pound, I'm definitely done now though! Both Teams to Score - No - betfair - 1.51 - 3 Points Shirak -5.0AH - 4.9 - betinternet - 1 Point

[Capricorno]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July EB/Streymur seems like a bankers bet. I took them at 1.80 before the odds dropped so much. They are an Faroe Islands side who are in the middle of their season facing an Andorra side who will be lacking match fitness. Do you guys agree? Andorran sides play very defensive so BOTH TO SCORE- NO 1.91 @Dynabet could also be a good option in case it is a 0-0 or only 0-1.

[Eoklon]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

It isn't actually San Marino though' date=' just one of their club teams, so a clean sheet, whilst very likely safe, probably not as secure as when the national side plays. Think it was a couple of seasons ago, maybe 2010, Tre Penne scored three goals over two legs against another Bosnian team. Did lose the home leg 9-2 I think though :lol[/quote'] The year after they also scored against RAD in the return leg. That makes it only 3 opposition clean sheets out of 6 recent European games. No bet for me. I'm curious to see how it will go.

[Fedar]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July Final score: 3:0. Before the 70th minute, guests barely passed the midfield and btts-no looked dead certain. However, afterwards they started attacking more bravely and with about ten minutes to go they got their 100% chance - one on one with the goalie who blocked the shot, followed by another shot at empty goal - cleared in front of the goal-line, and a third final shot from a good position to finish the attack. Shirak were poor and all handicappers might have been screwed very badly. This game could have easily finished 2:0 or even 1:0. No creativity from the Armenians whatsoever, no tall man up-front to materialise attacks, some serious technical deficit as well. All three goals were more or less very fortunate.

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

FC Shirak (ARM) 0.850 (UEFA Co Efficient rating) v SP Tre Penne (SMR) 1.383 FC Lusitans (AND) 1.100 v v EB/Streymur (FRO) 2.316 What do we know about Shirak? Well, a little bit. Armenian football is on the rise and after watching them thump Denmark 4-0 away recently in the WC Qual they certainly have some decent, quick, counter attacking players. Shirak have a few players in the national squad but they aren't regulars and the Armenian national team draws its players from larger European sides. I see one of their star players has left Yoro Lamine Ly (Senegal) who has gone to Israel, was their leading scorer last season. Ismaël Fofana (striker Ivory Coast) scored 14 goals before Christmas then went on loan to a club in Iran, his loan is now finished though and he is still contracted to the club so hopefully he will come back into the team, not sure what his situation is though. They have a few other foreign players and Karen Muradyan (20) who has played a couple of times for Armenia recently.

Shirak -1.0AH HT Handicap - 1.45 - Betinternet - 10 Points VOID Shirak -2.5AH - 1.45 - Betinternet - 5 Points WIN Shirak -2.5,-3.0AH - 1.7 - >Bet365 - 7.5 Points HALF WIN Shirak -3.5AH - 2.05 - Betinternet - 10 Points LOST

Both Teams to Score - No - >Betfair - 1.51 - 3 Points WIN Shirak -5.0AH - 4.9 - Betinternet - 1 Point LOST

Well it wasn't a disaster but 3-0 was the minimum score I needed really, 4-0 and I would have been laughing..Shirak were on top for the part of the game I watched (about 25 mins in) until the end really, bet365 said Shirak missed a penalty after about 12 mins (assuming this was true?) which would obviously have affected the way the game went as Shirak were far better second half while Perre tired. Shirak were pretty organised but lacked creativity in the middle, if they had someone to supply Fofana with more chances I'm sure they would have won by more. I raised the point about Fofana in my original post and I'm glad he did play and ended the match with all 3 goals, couple of them were a bit scrappy but he had an obvious goal threat. The Perre chance was a good one, I didn't think they had any chance of scoring up to then but they could well have done at that point, they are a pretty poor side though. Shirak player missed a virtually open goal with the last kick of the game which would have made a perfect result for me, never mind 3-0 was probably fair on the balance of the game.

[swindonfan]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July :unsure Lusitanos 2-0 up at half time. Also Bala 1-0 up after 20mins in Europa league. The lesson seems to be to avoid backing away sides especially in the first leg no matter how crud their opponents seem to be. Also interesting to think weather a side who has already started their season actually does have a real advantage over a side playing their first competitive game.

[Fedar]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

:unsure Lusitanos 2-0 up at half time. Also Bala 1-0 up after 20mins in Europa league. The lesson seems to be to avoid backing away sides especially in the first leg no matter how crud their opponents seem to be. Also interesting to think weather a side who has already started their season actually does have a real advantage over a side playing their first competitive game.

Game finished 2:2 and Streymur had a man off at 2:0. Ofc didn't watch it, but it is very likely that Streymur were in much better physical condition than their host to be able to overcome two goal deficit with man down (and statistically Lusitanos much better in 1st half, while Streymur better in 2nd half). So maybe the answer to your question is still YES.

[KennyDelight]

CL Second Qualifying Round > 17th July Hopefully I am not breaking any rules in starting this a couple weeks early but need some thoughts on Molde v Sligo Molde not doing too well in Norway, Sligo a team from Rep Ireland I can currently get 1.70 for Molde to qualify for the next round..... is this a trap or is there some value in this? :unsure Opening leg in Ireland if I'm not mistken

[swindonfan]

Re: CL Second Qualifying Round > 17th July .

[swindonfan]

Re: CL Second Qualifying Round > 17th July .

[mij0sim]

Re: CL Second Qualifying Round > 17th July

Hopefully I am not breaking any rules in starting this a couple weeks early but need some thoughts on Molde v Sligo Molde not doing too well in Norway, Sligo a team from Rep Ireland I can currently get 1.70 for Molde to qualify for the next round..... is this a trap or is there some value in this? :unsure Opening leg in Ireland if I'm not mistken

Dont know much about Sligo and their level but can tell you few words about Molde. Molde had bad start of the season which putted them in relegation zone. Changed few players before start but tought will have similar results. Now, play better and will climb but think season is over in championship for them (when they reach safe distance). Still i dont trust them this season (this is my personal decision to stay away from them). To many time they didnt win when everybody expected. As i said, dont know on what level is Sligo, but i guess Molde should be favorite.

[swindonfan]

Re: CL Second Qualifying Round > 17th July I will get my post right this time. Kenny Bwin have molde to qualify priced at 1.2. So i guess that answers your question. 1.7 is a cracking price far to big. when you consider Molde have 4 players who played for norway u21 and beat england u21 recently. They also have 2 norweigen internationals whilst sligo have players who were squad players previousley at AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby. Molde is at a compleately different level.

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Tre Penne v Shirak Not really interested in much tonight, prices seem pretty terrible all round, Shirak 1.5 on a -1EH handicap seems very low considering they are hardly world beaters and realistically are already through to the next round. A scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0 to Shirak is probably most likely, but given they don't have huge motivation to go for the jugular and didn't look a particularly creative side I wouldn't take them at that price. I'm having a small play on the away team clean sheet, Tre Penne created very little bar 3 good chances in the space of 10 seconds in the first leg, Shirak looked reasonably composed defensively against a very limited side and although Penne are likely to have more of the ball than they did in the first leg, it will still be Shirak calling the shots. The odds for this are all over the place again with coral offering 1.36 and marathon still having 1.84, I took 1.85 with betinternet a couple of days ago and that looked a good price to me. Away Team Clean Sheet - Yes - 1.85 - betinternet - 2.5 Points