CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

[allthethings]

Re: CL First Qualifying Round > 2nd July

:unsure Lusitanos 2-0 up at half time. Also Bala 1-0 up after 20mins in Europa league. The lesson seems to be to avoid backing away sides especially in the first leg no matter how crud their opponents seem to be. Also interesting to think weather a side who has already started their season actually does have a real advantage over a side playing their first competitive game.

I think too much is made of whether a league season has started. Rosenborg barely managed to win at Crusaders last week, KR Reykjavik couldn't win at home against Glentoran, TPS lost at Jeunesse Esch, Mariehamn drew with Inter Baku, etc. etc. There were a few blowouts where match fitness might have been an issue, but generally people make too much of this in my opinion.

[HastGill1]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Tre Penne v Shirak Not really interested in much tonight, prices seem pretty terrible all round, Shirak 1.5 on a -1EH handicap seems very low considering they are hardly world beaters and realistically are already through to the next round. A scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0 to Shirak is probably most likely, but given they don't have huge motivation to go for the jugular and didn't look a particularly creative side I wouldn't take them at that price. I'm having a small play on the away team clean sheet, Tre Penne created very little bar 3 good chances in the space of 10 seconds in the first leg, Shirak looked reasonably composed defensively against a very limited side and although Penne are likely to have more of the ball than they did in the first leg, it will still be Shirak calling the shots. The odds for this are all over the place again with coral offering 1.36 and marathon still having 1.84, I took 1.85 with betinternet a couple of days ago and that looked a good price to me. Away Team Clean Sheet - Yes - 1.85 - betinternet - 2.5 Points LOST

Own goal within 2 minutes! :lol..certainly the quickest I've ever lost a bet..

[mtom]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Or perhaps, it's the luckiest bet you've ever won? :rollin Well done, mate!

[pg_yid]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Is that the first game a team from San Marino have ever won in Europe?

[sigur_ros]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July c'mon i had the draw @ 8.5 !!! cannot believe 3penne won that lol

[Alexc]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Make your own mind up about that one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvO7mfNFELk

[MPLouis]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July I guess there's sometimes value in backing the underdogs in the second leg after a one-sided first leg. The team which won the first leg convincingly might not have the motivation to win the second leg and might be happy with a draw or a narrow defeat which would still see them qualify comfortably ...

[Fedar]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Also, I think there is value in backing underdogs on some handicaps against Caucasian sides (and particularly those from Armenia and Azerbaijan). I have noticed over the years that these teams are notoriously under-ish and struggle to break down any kind of tight defense, even amateur one. I think Shirak aren't that bad, and they could perform much better if they are in the role of the underdog and are left with more free space, but they simply don't feel confident in the build-up. Worth to remember how the national team of Armenia lost to Malta at home (after a horrific performances and very little threat in attack) and 4 days later they demolished Denmark in Copenhagen. Also Azerbaijan national team seem to be struggling against any minnow they play, although they are not that bad and sometimes trouble some of the big teams in Europe.

[MightyWell]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Is that the first game a team from San Marino have ever won in Europe?

Yes - at the 48th attempt (although I use that word loosely; the norm for Sammarinese sides in Europe is to put men behind the ball and try to keep the score down). It's also the fifth time out of the 48 games that a Sammarinese side has avoided defeat in Europe, the others being Tre Fiori's two 1-1 draws with similar Andorran minnows Sant Julia, a fairly respectable 1-1 draw for Libertas against Droghead United slightly further back, and a goalless draw for Faetano against Zestafoni a couple of years ago after a 5-0 first-leg defeat. While Shirak didn't look any great shakes in the first leg, you have to wonder how bad they must really be to succumb to this sort of result.

[swindonfan]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July .

[ivan-ikonomov]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Sligo Rovers - Molde Molde - 0.5 2.10 @Bet365 Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team lost the fight for the top places in the league and will look forward to the european matches. Last season Molde lost 1-2 on aggregate to Basel in the third qualifying round of the CL. Sligo's european record isn't great with a draw and two losses from the last three matches at home. The opponents where inferior to Molde - a team from Albania, Spartak Turnava and Vorskla Poltava. Often the physical style of the Irish teams proves tough for continental opposition, but Molde should handle that well. I expect two very motivated teams, with the Norwegians champions proving too much for Sligo.

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Plzen - Zeljeznicar Pick: Plzen -2.5 @2.24 Marathonbet 5/10 Plzen is big favourite here, especially at home. Zeljo will come to Czech without some important players. Two deffenders, Kvesic and Colic, and three midfielders Stanic, Zolotic and Svraka won't play. Plzen lost in supercup few days ago, but they don't play with their best squad. Tomorrow they will go to crash enemy and I think this will be at least 3 goal difference for home team. Fola - Dinamo Pick: Dinamo -2 @2.04 Pinnacle 6/10 I don't know much about home team, i just watch some video from them... They are 3 level under Dinamo! Dinamo spend a lot money for Croatian standards, and they have better team than last year. I watch their game against Hajduk in Croatian SuperCup and they don't play great, but even with that poor show they win SuperCup. President of Dinamo, Mamic, and their coach tell before game that they go in Luxemburg to win, and to try decide everything in first game. Coach also say that he watch some games of home team, and that their players won't underestimate their rival. Their players will give 100% in this game, and I think that it will be enough for at least 3 goal difference.

[mtom]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Birkirkara - Maribor pick - over 2.5 goals odds - 1.82@Pinnacle stake - 3/10 I ought to take these odds. Even if they dropped slightly I thought they should be around 1.65, so I still find value. Birkirkara won the Maltese championship somewhat surprisingly. They have an okay squad with few Latin American and African players in the squad, and managed to sign 4 new players prior to this game. Defenders Jonathan Marciel and Ricardo Jimenez and strikers Demba Toure and Frank Temile. Birkirkara played 5 friendly games so far, but haven't started playing in their Championship yet. On the other hand, Maribor kicked-off the new season with a 2-1 victory on Saturday. And they also won the Slovenian Super cup few days before that. So they already got 2 competitive games under their belts. Moreover, the quality difference should be too much for the Maltese to handle. As far as I understood, the Slovenian side is travelling in full squad. All in all, I think Maribor should win easily. The only worry I have is if they decide to take it easy under the Maltese sun and wait to trash their opponents at home. Still, though, a 2-1 or 3-0 victory should be expected. Good luck!

[allthethings]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Fola/Dinamo Zagreb under 3.5 goals @ 1.78 (5dimes) Lux teams have done very well defending their home grounds, and take a look at Zagreb's past. In July and August in CL qualifiers, away, they have gone under 3.5 goals 2-18! Here are their first matches in qualifiers when starting the two-leg affair away: Ludgorets 1-1 Pyunik 0-0 Linfield 0-2 Khazar 1-1 Ekranes 1-4 Maribor 1-1 Milan 3-1 Four draws, one loss, two wins. They have a long history of playing completely tight away, then "settling the tie at home": Ludgorets 4-3 Pyunik 3-0 Linfield 3-1 Khazar 2-2 (W in extra time) Ekranes 9-3 Maribor 3-2 Milan 1-6 In all quarterfinals past five years, first games involving home underdogs 8-16 to the under 2.5, 5-19 to the under 3.5.

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Plzen - Zeljeznicar Pick: Plzen -2.5 @2.24 Marathonbet 5/10 Fola - Dinamo Pick: Dinamo -2 @2.04 Pinnacle 6/10

+1.24u Very wierd result in Plzen... Shirak - Partizan Pick: Under 2.5 goals @1.79 Pinnacle 7/10 I'm big fan of Partizan, and because of that I watch both Shirak games vs Tre Penne in first round. They play good in first game, and win 3-0, but in second they was really poor. They create some chances, but they have big problems with scoring goals. First about new Partizan squad. We sell some players, but only SF Lazar Markovic and GK Stojkovic was important for team. Instead of them we lead good goalkeeper Lukac from OFK, also we lead Aksentijevic from Vitese, Malbasic from Hoffenheim, Gulan from Modena and Grbic from Olympiacos. In my eyes we have stronger team than last year, but unfortunately we will probably sell more players. Ivan Ivanov, our best defense player have good offer from Basel, and he will probably go after this game. Also our attacker Scepovic want to leave club, and he will probably go after this game. Partizan play good in friendly games, but we also have big problems with scoring goals. We create much chances in all friendly games, but our attackers can't score. In this game we will be only without young attacker Mitrovic who is suspended from European games for 3 matches. Probably Partizan team: Lukac; Volkov, Ivanov, Ostojic, Aksentijevic; Gulan, Ilic, Ninkovic, Malbasic, Luka; Scepovic. I can't imagine that poor Shirak score in this game, but also I don't think that Partizan will give more than 2 goals. Under 2.5 @1.79 in Pinnacle is my call.

[kevshat]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July 3pts Celtic to win to nil 11/10 Paddy Power This is a patched up Celtic side but they should still win this match. Whether they win it comfortably I’m not sure but I would expect their intention to be to ensure they don’t concede and to grab at least one at the other end to make sure most of the work is done ahead of next week. Obviously Hooper is a loss for the game but in Watt, Stokes and Samaras there’s enough for them to score and win this to nil. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cliftonville-vs-celtic-betting-celtic-should-be-capable-of-winning-without-conceding-in-belfast-20130717

[oti.kevin prince]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July HJK Helsinki-Nomme Kalju HJK is by far the better team. They are the best team from Finland, they have experienced players like Forsell or Temu Tainio and good performances when they were favourites at home. Kalju is a poor team from Estonia and i think that they will be trashed in this game you can go for: HJK/HJk 1,53 Hjk -1.0 HT 2 Over 2,5 1,53 Hjk over 2,5 1,83

[jackierubberleg]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Elfsborg-FC Daugava FC Daugava +2 (Normal H'cap) 2/1 B 365 Daugava have been performing well in their domestic league of late. Winning 6 of the last seven games, the only blimp, a narrow 0-1 defeat to Ventspils which bodes well. Elfsborg on the other hand have not been setting the world alight in their own league. As we saw yesterday, several very short priced teams unable to raise their game against minnows for long parts of the game, much to the delight of the layers I suspect. If the latvians manage to grab a goal the H'cap will be hard to bridge.

[mtom]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Birkirkara - Maribor pick - over 2.5 goals odds - 1.82@Pinnacle stake - 3/10 I ought to take these odds. Even if they dropped slightly I thought they should be around 1.65, so I still find value. Birkirkara won the Maltese championship somewhat surprisingly. They have an okay squad with few Latin American and African players in the squad, and managed to sign 4 new players prior to this game. Defenders Jonathan Marciel and Ricardo Jimenez and strikers Demba Toure and Frank Temile. Birkirkara played 5 friendly games so far, but haven't started playing in their Championship yet. On the other hand, Maribor kicked-off the new season with a 2-1 victory on Saturday. And they also won the Slovenian Super cup few days before that. So they already got 2 competitive games under their belts. Moreover, the quality difference should be too much for the Maltese to handle. As far as I understood, the Slovenian side is travelling in full squad. All in all, I think Maribor should win easily. The only worry I have is if they decide to take it easy under the Maltese sun and wait to trash their opponents at home. Still, though, a 2-1 or 3-0 victory should be expected. Good luck!

0-0 bet lost....okay, second week in a row when a Maltese team costs me money. I think teams who are superior over Maltese ones just go there to get a 0-0 or a narrow 1-0 victory because they feel confident at trashing them at home a week later. I think that will be the case with Maribor too...I apologize if I misled anyone.

[Papa Lazarou]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

3pts Celtic to win to nil 11/10 Paddy Power This is a patched up Celtic side but they should still win this match. Whether they win it comfortably I’m not sure but I would expect their intention to be to ensure they don’t concede and to grab at least one at the other end to make sure most of the work is done ahead of next week. Obviously Hooper is a loss for the game but in Watt, Stokes and Samaras there’s enough for them to score and win this to nil. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cliftonville-vs-celtic-betting-celtic-should-be-capable-of-winning-without-conceding-in-belfast-20130717

I think the 11/10 is a decent price but Cliftonville do like to attack. This is an interesting game primarily for the fact that the home team support are all Celtic diehards - for most, Celtic are their "first" team and Cliftonville their second or "local interest" team. It's a bit like Rangers playing their Belfast equivalent Linfield whose fans are all supporters of the Gers. And although these teams have played in friendlies due to their close ties, this is the first competitive tie. Cliftonville have drawn and beaten Celtic in their two most recent friendlies but tonight will be different. The only question is just how ruthless will Celtic be to a team with whom they have a very close relationship and indeed, after their recent poor results in friendlies, how effective can they be? I think it will be a case of just doing enough to retain a flicker of interest in the second leg next week so would say maybe 2-0 to Celtic. Neil Lennon sending out strong messages though: Back home in Northern Ireland, Lennon has made it abundantly clear just how important it is to him and the club that Celtic once again qualify for the group stages of Europe's premier competition as they did last season, when they famously defeated Barcelona. Lennon's men need to win three ties to have a chance to face the likes of Barca, Manchester United and Bayern Munich which would bring millions of pounds in revenue and prestige that the SPL, especially without Rangers, cannot compete with. The first obstacle in Celtic's path is Cliftonville, who host the Hoops this evening in the first leg of a Champions League qualifier (7.45pm) with the return at Parkhead next week. "We are here to be professional," said the Lurgan native, who won 40 caps for Northern Ireland. "Yes, there is a very good relationship between Celtic and Cliftonville but this is the Champions League which is very important to us, the club, our players and their development. Once the first whistle blows we'll be trying to win the game as best we can. "It's a dangerous game. This is a booby-trap of a game, so we have to be really at it in how we start the game." Reds boss Tommy Breslin said: "I feel that any time we go out to play we can beat any team at any time and that's the same attitude we will send the players out with."

[belfastchris]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July Cliftonville vs Celtic.. ( Celtic -1 ) This will be like a carnival game for Cliftonville, due to every Cliftonville fan would big fans of Celtic FC. Artificial pitch it will be with temporary seating being added to give bigger atmosphere. Celtic on the other hand, on paper should win 4-0 5-0 could be a close 1st half but would expect Celtic to pull away in second half.. I also have a feeling that Celtic could settle for 2-0 then finish off at Celtic Park. Ive also placed £5 on Sameras hatrick at 20/1 seemed nice odds... lets hope he starts!!

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Shirak - Partizan Pick: Under 2.5 goals @1.79 Pinnacle 7/10

1-1 +5.53u

[ivan.ikonomov]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Sligo Rovers - Molde Molde - 0.5 2.10 @Bet365 Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team lost the fight for the top places in the league and will look forward to the european matches. Last season Molde lost 1-2 on aggregate to Basel in the third qualifying round of the CL. Sligo's european record isn't great with a draw and two losses from the last three matches at home. The opponents where inferior to Molde - a team from Albania, Spartak Turnava and Vorskla Poltava. Often the physical style of the Irish teams proves tough for continental opposition, but Molde should handle that well. I expect two very motivated teams, with the Norwegians champions proving too much for Sligo.

0 -1 bet won :ok