WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

[killerkim]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March England are going to give san marino a penalty.

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Are you watching Turkey by the way? Christ they are beyond terrible' date=' making Andorra look a good side..[/quote'] Haven't been watching, I see they are 2-0 up now though. Agree re: bookies being stupid, however, looking at the price movements I'm inclined to agree with Swindon's post earlier about money coming in the other way. I reckon it's idiotic punters betting on BTTS- yes, thinking "that looks a big price, they haven't scored in 100 games so they'll have to score sooner or later" which causes some of these prices. Though obviously the earlier ones (such as Paddy Power's in this case) are the bookies' fault. I think in that case they use an algorithm to come up with the price, based on England being a class B team and San Marino being a class Z team. That would come up with the price (1.01) for the 1x2- which isn't correct but it's just the standard price they use for a B vs Z game in any competition. Then the "to win to nil" price is probably worked out from the 1.01 using another algorithm rather than looking at stats. The algorithm works out the price using 1,000s of B vs Z matches from all competitions, which aren't really relevant because for most of them the class difference is much smaller than it is for England and San Marino. That's my theory anyway!

[allthethings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Putting my money where my mouth is, adding: Austria/Faroe, over 3 @ 1.71 Holland/Estonia, over 3.5 @ 1.96 Andorra/Turkey, under 3 @ 2.05 Kazakhstan/Germany, under 3.5 @ 2.16

The two unders are in the books, and Andorra covered the HC; Kazakhstan failed to cover the HC. 3-1 so far. I added San Marino +4.5 and under 5 goals, and Finland +3 and over 3.5 goals.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March OWN GOAL San Marino Shouldnt make any difference to the both teams to score bets but might be slight brown trouser time for some of the other bets where the wording is different.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

OWN GOAL San Marino Shouldnt make any difference to the both teams to score bets but might be slight brown trouser time for some of the other bets where the wording is different.

Mate, you are absolutely off your trolley :lol..

[RIOT88]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Scotland - Wales AH over 4' date=5 cards 1.95 bet365 Two physically stronr sides with typical british style of play. This match can transform in hard battle. Bale breakes can be stopped only with fouls who can be converted to yellow cards may be and red too.French refree who likes to show cards:http://int.soccerway.com/referees/antony-gautier/56190/. What you think about this bet, british guys? Otherwise I support that Wales are underrated in this game. From fact that Wales have not X in last 43 games i like Wales +0.5 2.050 bet365. May be a combo from these two bets on odds like 4 is good too.

2 bets won and combo won!:ok

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March I have to admit, when that San Marino own goal went in I was straight on PP chat to check once again own goals don't count. Thankfully, I've been paid. Thanks once again to the PP rep who told me otherwise the first time I checked too, that didn't cause me a bunch of stress :lol Thanks again to Lordoftheonionrings too, 1.44 for a England clean sheet against those mugs, amazing.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

I have to admit, when that San Marino own goal went in I was straight on PP chat to check once again own goals don't count. Thankfully, I've been paid. Thanks once again to the PP rep who told me otherwise the first time I checked too, that didn't cause me a bunch of stress :lol Thanks again to Lordoftheonionrings too, 1.44 for a England clean sheet against those mugs, amazing.

Nice one alex i was a bit worried for you there.:clap You did the right thing by checking with paddy power. Unlike a certain Gillingham fan we could mention who doesnt seem to have the same attention to detail with his bets like you and I. He will be cold in his card board box tonight.:$ Good news is can do all this again on Tuesday San Marino away to Poland:cow will still be seeing prices around 1.4 for both to score No/clean sheet type bets. bookies only pay attention once they see the money come in. See Pg Yids post about algorithams and the way bookies set prices I think it makes a lot of sense.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Nice one alex i was a bit worried for you there.:clap You did the right thing by checking with paddy power. Unlike a certain Gillingham fan we could mention who doesnt seem to have the same attention to detail with his bets like you and I. He will be cold in his card board box tonight.:$

I take it you are talking about me? :unsure..I'm not daft enough to think that if San Marino score an own goal it will count as them scoring a goal :lol, that is just stupid as anyone who understands betting will tell you.. Even a swine fan should be able to understand these fundamentals of football betting.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

I take it you are talking about me? :unsure..I'm not daft enough to think that if San Marino score an own goal it will count as them scoring a goal :lol' date=' that is just stupid as anyone who understands betting will tell you.. Even a swine fan should be able to understand these fundamentals of football betting.[/quote'] Fair enough. If alexc hadnt started it i probably never would have thought of it though. Still think Betvictor had one over on you even though there is nothing you can do about it. Paddypower and Bwin both honured bets at 1.44 and 1.5 whilst Betvictor said palpable error at 1.65 is not a great difference.

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March To be fair, Hastgill, like I said, I thought it was strange, but a PP rep told me an own goal counted, and odds of 1.44 were odd. Anyway, looks like all clean sheet backers did well tonight, so well done.

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Fair enough. If alexc hadnt started it i probably never would have thought of it though. Still think Betvictor had one over on you even though there is nothing you can do about it. Paddypower and Bwin both honured bets at 1.44 and 1.5 whilst Betvictor said palpable error at 1.65 is not a great difference.

I never started it :lol Betvictor are well known clowns, too, so it isn't a surprise they'd behave in this way.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

To be PG and Hastgill' date=' you do realise in the event of a San Marino own goal the bet loses? Like the stat I provided shows, it's unlikely,[/quote'] :moon

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Are you watching Turkey by the way? Christ they are beyond terrible' date=' making Andorra look a good side..[/quote'] We should remember not to take such bet on Andorra again. They had like 10-15 long throw-ins "Stoke City style" deep into the Turkish penalty area. They had enough corners and set pieces. They had one clear chance face to face with the keeper. These are not the poor San Marino who don't cross the mid-line.

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March A very good night, as well as the clean sheet bets, Wales +0.75 and the unders in Liechtenstein came in, so a full house. Wish I'd seen that 1.5 with Bwin in time but can't spend every second of the day checking the prices!! Well done anyone who got that.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

We should remember not to take such bet on Andorra again. They had like 10-15 long throw-ins "Stoke City style" deep into the Turkish penalty area. They had enough corners and set pieces. They had one clear chance face to face with the keeper. These are not the poor San Marino who don't cross the mid-line.

You are right, they chuck the ball into the box at every opportunity, these caused a few problems but no real 'clear' chances. They missed a real sitter one on one though as you say, total lack of composure and just smashed the ball after it bobbled..Andorra are certainly light years ahead of San Marino.

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

We should remember not to take such bet on Andorra again. They had like 10-15 long throw-ins "Stoke City style" deep into the Turkish penalty area. They had enough corners and set pieces. They had one clear chance face to face with the keeper. These are not the poor San Marino who don't cross the mid-line.

That is interesting information thanks for sharing. When I've watched Andorra they seem to have improved from a few years ago though obviously their scoring record is still very poor.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

:moon

You are wrong again mate, it makes no odds if he scores at his own end or not, unless the ball goes in the net at the right end the bet is a winner. This really is basic stuff. Anyway, good luck in the future ;)

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Also, any handicaps when against Andorra at their own turf is not a good idea. The terrain is very bad - Turkish players would slip and fall down all the time, many times the ball would suddenly change its trajectory. Andorrans play deep pressure and are athletic and very rude at the times. But they have much better fitness than other minnows as they continued with their pressure throughout the whole game. For me, Andorra is at the level of League 2 team - nothing special, but might strike a surprise sometimes.

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March By the way, I cannot wait until the odds for "Poland to beat San Marino to nil" are released. I think that pg-yid might be right about the algorithms used by bookies to determine such odds. In such case, Poland should be like Level 3 team, plus one that concedes often. So, we may hope to get initially something like 1.25 which would be extremely tasty. Although, to be honest, this time I might attack handicaps against San Marino. Poland are extremely disappointed after tonight and are like wounded animal. I think that the likes of Lewandowski and Kuba will not be sparing goals against San Marino and will try to at least partially redeem themselves in front of the crowd.

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

By the way, I cannot wait until the odds for "Poland to beat San Marino to nil" are released. I think that pg-yid might be right about the algorithms used by bookies to determine such odds. In such case, Poland should be like Level 3 team, plus one that concedes often. So, we may hope to get initially something like 1.25 which would be extremely tasty. Although, to be honest, this time I might attack handicaps against San Marino. Poland are extremely disappointed after tonight and are like wounded animal. I think that the likes of Lewandowski and Kuba will not be sparing goals against San Marino and will try to at least partially redeem themselves in front of the crowd.

You might have a point with the handicaps. I find it is quite often the lesser teams who are more motivated to go for a big win in games like this one.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

By the way, I cannot wait until the odds for "Poland to beat San Marino to nil" are released. I think that pg-yid might be right about the algorithms used by bookies to determine such odds. In such case, Poland should be like Level 3 team, plus one that concedes often. So, we may hope to get initially something like 1.25 which would be extremely tasty. Although, to be honest, this time I might attack handicaps against San Marino. Poland are extremely disappointed after tonight and are like wounded animal. I think that the likes of Lewandowski and Kuba will not be sparing goals against San Marino and will try to at least partially redeem themselves in front of the crowd.

I remember a similar bet about this time last year when they played Andorra in a friendly before the EC and won 4-0, Andorra didn't get anywhere near scoring a goal..should be a very solid bet at anything near 1.2, San Marino are getting worse not better.

[MPLouis]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Ok' date=' I've asked very very nicely, but could we please move the discussion away from this :) it's been done to death tbh, and I wouldn't want posts to end up being removed :ok[/quote'] Jase - thinking back, several of your posts on this thread suggest that, as a moderator, you were unhappy with the number of posts about short-odds bets. I think you were wrong to threaten to stop or restrict discussion of these, and that these forums should be open to discussion of all bets, no matter what the odds are. Obviously, some people just aren't interested in low-odds clean sheet type bets, but clearly other people are interested, and I really think debate about these bets should be encouraged not threatened :)

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

By the way, I cannot wait until the odds for "Poland to beat San Marino to nil" are released. I think that pg-yid might be right about the algorithms used by bookies to determine such odds. In such case, Poland should be like Level 3 team, plus one that concedes often. So, we may hope to get initially something like 1.25 which would be extremely tasty. Although, to be honest, this time I might attack handicaps against San Marino. Poland are extremely disappointed after tonight and are like wounded animal. I think that the likes of Lewandowski and Kuba will not be sparing goals against San Marino and will try to at least partially redeem themselves in front of the crowd.

Don't forget bookmakers will look at this site though, mate, so it's probably better not to over discuss these kind of bets.

[Jase82]

Jase - thinking back' date=' several of your posts on this thread suggest that, as a moderator, you were unhappy with the number of posts about short-odds bets. I think you were wrong to threaten to stop or restrict discussion of these, and that these forums should be open to discussion of all bets, no matter what the odds are. Obviously, some people just aren't interested in low-odds clean sheet type bets, but clearly other people are interested, and I really think debate about these bets should be encouraged not threatened :)[/quote'] I wasn't threatening, merely trying to prompt a move towards another discussion as what is or isn't value at short odds is off topic for this thread. And we have many other users that may not want to read a thousand posts about the same thing going round in circles :ok

[wellarmy]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Betvictor offering 8/15 on both teams to score; NO in the Poland v San Marino game. Cracking price considering San Marinos scoring record.

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

Wellarmy please don't get them started again its as tiring as the paper thin Liverpool haven't beaten a top 10 side yet drivel. Great calls on wales to gents and especially kevshats gutsy no handicap bet!