WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Heavy snow in N.I. might mean the game against Russia is called off, there is a pitch inspection shortly ahead of the game..

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Terrible weather in Sofia today - harsh arctic wind, minus degrees and light snow. Game played at closed door. Unders become more and more attractive. Bulgaria - Malta Under 2.5 @ 2.20

[elboko]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Hungary vs Romania This is more than just a football match for both countries,something simillar to Croatia-Serbia.The rivalry between this 2 countries is immense,it has been going on for at least a millennium and in the last few years it has greatly intensified ,especially because of the Hungarian community in Romania who demmands authonomy. As you can see,this is a very important game for both countries because victory in a game like this will be a big reason for pride and the players will do their best to win it. But enough of geopolitics and stuff. Hungary and Romania have 9 points each and almost similar results(they both lost to Holland 1-4 at home and beat Turkey,Estonia and Andorra) and they battle for a place in the play-offs ,as it is nearly impossible that Holland will not win this group.Hungary has improved in the last few campaigns and it has some very talented players like Dzsudzsak,Hajnal,Szalai,Kadar or Koman;the most experienced player,Z.Gera from West Brom,is missing due to an injury.The hungarian coach said that this will be a vital game for both countries and the pressure will be high on each side,but the most important thing is not to loose.The atmosphere will not be of any kind in the stands beacause Hungary has the home ground susspended,so it will be like a friendly game with high stakes. Romania will play with 4 players from Steaua ( the 2 DM,the goalkeeper and a CD,someone asked this in previous threads I believe).Mutu,Torje and R.Stefan,probably the best Romania has right now, will also start.Piturca choose to play defensively ,as it has done numerous times and we can see that 9/16 players ( except the keepers) are CBs or DMs.The threat can come from Mutu,if he's helped from behind, Grozav or Torje. I believe this will be a low scoring game in which both teams' objective is not to loose.Neither team will force the victory if it's not behind,despite the national pride that comes with it. In the last 15 years,Hungary and Romania played 6 games ( 2 friendlies),5 Romanian wins and a draw. I will play: under 2.5 @ 1.65 (bet365 ) x2 @ 1.45 HT/FT x/x @ 4.75 GL!

[Alienated In The UK]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Massive sandstorms in Israel and the games kicking off in just over an hour. This could end with low goals due to the weather imvho. Regardless of the fact that Portugal dont score many, especially away, and the fact that Israel are the worst Israel team for years, and the fact that they`ll be in awe of the superstar visitors, they`ll sit back and be VERY happy with a 0-0 that`ll keep them in second place in the group. Reading the Israel fans forums they expect to lose as they believe their team to be pitiful, their only 2 wins have been against Luxembourg, which is why they are in 2nd place in the group. Very tight boring game in atrocious conditions expected, 1.55 too low for Portugal, and im surprised to see 1.95 on under 2.5 goals, that could look amazing odds shortly after kickoff :hope

[Alienated In The UK]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Bonjour Everybody Today i have a double , i think is safe First Spain to win both halves @ 1.65 , i think Spain at home gone quickly take the ball control and score fast ,Finland's players dont play in the same category we all know that , Spain have to secure the 1st Place, LA FRANCE:hope play today too at home against Georgia they have 7pts too and i think they gone win ... So Spain gone take this match very professionally Second bet is Bosnia to score @ 1.25 ,it's not a big high , specially when you see the H2H ,but i think this time Bosnia at home can easily score Of course it's gone be a hard match for the lead of the group Spain To Win Both Halves @ 1.65 Bosnia OT 0.5 @ 1.25 @2.06 on marathon

Spain can ease off the gas with a HUGE game against France on Tuesday, and Finland wont be pulling up any tree`s going forward, theyve always been very defensive, and will be uber cautious here.

[Dzontra85]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Line ups for tonight: Croatia: Pletikosa-Srna,Corluka,Simunic,Strinic-Vukojevic,Modric,Rakitic,Sammir-Mandzukic,Olic 4-4-2 Serbia: Stojkovic-Ivanovic,Kolarov,Nastasic,Subotic-Ignjovski,Petrovic-Tadic,Djurcic,Tosic-Djordjevic 4-2-3-1

[RIOT88]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Scotland - Wales AH over 4,5 cards 1.95 bet365 Two physically stronr sides with typical british style of play. This match can transform in hard battle. Bale breakes can be stopped only with fouls who can be converted to yellow cards may be and red too.French refree who likes to show cards:http://int.soccerway.com/referees/antony-gautier/56190/. What you think about this bet, british guys? Otherwise I support that Wales are underrated in this game. From fact that Wales have not X in last 43 games i like Wales +0.5 2.050 bet365. May be a combo from these two bets on odds like 4 is good too.

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Spain can ease off the gas with a HUGE game against France on Tuesday' date=' and Finland wont be pulling up any tree`s going forward, theyve always been very defensive, and will be uber cautious here.[/quote'] You right Finland are very physical team i know that , I dont think Spain gone ease off the gas ,because if they have problem Tuesday against France they can lose the leadership of the group (in a hypothetical win of France today...) So i think they gone take this match with good intention, Villa he's in a good period i think

[MPLouis]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Andorra v Turkey This is a bet more against Andorra than for Turkey who are going through a bad spell themselves but should be able to see off the Andorrans without conceding. If we look back over the past 42 games Andorra have played they have lost 41 and drawn 1, in that period they have scored in 8 games so they are far from prolific, in fact they haven't scored in their last 14 matches..Avci is under a bit of pressure in Turkey as results have been disappointing so far, they should get 6 points from their games against Andorra and Hungary though and their prospects might look far better this time next week. Considering the stats I have given I find it surprising Coral go at 1.4 for Turkey winning to nil, Hills for example have the same bet at 1.12, I would say it should be about 1.2-1.22. Regardless of what faults you pick in Turkeys current form, they have been playing against sides far better than Andorra. Andorra are organised defensively and a pretty dogged outfit these days, they have very little attacking ability though and will have no more than a couple of efforts on target, if that. Regular followers of these threads will know this is one of my favourite bets and it certainly comes in most times you play it, at 1.4 it’s a no-brainer for me, I expect this to finish 2 or 3-0. Turkey to Win to Nil - 1.4 - coral - 10 Points

I actually worked this through using the stats for Andorra's home games on soccerway http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2013/03/22/europe/wc-qualifying-europe/andorra/turkey/1239721/?ICID=HP_MS_01_07 Andorra have failed to score in 38 of their last 50 home games. So you could say their chances of NOT scoring are 38/50, and the decimal odds would be 50/38 = 1.32. Coral are offering Turkey clean sheet @ 1.33 which almost matches that number (I wonder if that's how they worked it out?). But Turkey are probably harder to score against than the average national side. Most of Andorra's goals at home have been scored against countries like Belarus and Kazakhstan. So you could argue the chances of Andorra failing to score against Turkey might be more like 45/50, which would make the decimal odds 50/45 = 1.11. If you follow this line of argument, then 1.33 for the clean sheet, (or perhaps the slightly riskier 1.4 for the Turkey win to nil) is good value.

[gogoto]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Scotland - Wales AH over 4' date=5 cards 1.95 bet365 From fact that Scotland have not X in last 43 games i like Wales +0.5 2.050 bet365. May be a combo from these two bets on odds like 4 is good too.

I think the 43 games belongs to Wales and not Scotland? @ ocelote: they didn't have a draw game since 26.05.2007 in a friendly game vs New Zealand, that are 43 matches without a draw

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March England to win to nil is 1.22 at Bet365 now, I believe.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

England to win to nil is 1.22 at Bet365 now' date=' I believe.[/quote'] Don't think so, still 1.1 from what I can see.

[RIOT88]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

I think the 43 games belongs to Wales and not Scotland? @ ocelote: they didn't have a draw game since 26.05.2007 in a friendly game vs New Zealand, that are 43 matches without a draw

I am sorry for the mistake.Games are 44 and last draw is against Germany :21.11.07 ECQ Germany - Wales 0-0. My question was for the bet AH over 4.5 cards, what is british guys opinion. [TABLE=class: matches] [TR=class: even match no-date-repetition] [TD=class: team team-b][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Guardiola]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Mario Götze to score. 2,30 @ bet365 (10/10) Götze is playing false9 tonight against Kazachstan, Gomez is injured, so this is safe. 2,30 for the most offensive german player with that much skill like Götze is just ridiculous against an opponent like Kazachstan. Thanks bet365.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Bwin are now 1.5 for both teams to score No in the England v San Marino game.:unsure:eek Bwin are big in Italy maybe they have some kind of arrangement with some england players? Cut into 1.42 now which suggests it isnt a palpable error Was there for 10 minutes now price is removed. all it probably takes in a case like this is 1 clueless punter to bet say £100 on both to score yes then it pushes the No right out if it is just done automatically by computer. Then it stays there until a Bwin trader notices it as the money piles in.

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March England to win both halves is 1.2 (1/5) with Paddypower. Considering England are 1.01 (1/100) to win the game outright the 1.2 in my opinion is really good value.

[zteinter]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Just wanted to share my humble opinion about this one. On paper, Croatia has a better squad and playing at home they are the obvious favorites. This is the last match that you want to look at on paper however. It's a very unique match, something that you can't compare with any European 2 countries at the moment. Once again, looking at the teams one would expect a Croatia win and in normal circumstances the 1.70 would be about right. Not here in my opinion, and anything below 1.90-2.00 is too short of an odd. The atmosphere in Serbia might not be the best but everyone that will play will give 100% here. And despite Croatia having the better players, Serbia's confirmed 11 are far from amateurs. Players like Ivanovic, Subotic, Nastasic, Kolarov, Ignjovski, Tosic can make a difference and if they have something in there it's decent defending. People are saying all kinds of things about Mihajlovic and yet nobody mentions Stimac and the "big" support that he has had since taking charge. Let me remind you that he was boycoted by the fans in the opener against Macedonia and I don't rate him as a very good coach, despite the decent start of the qualifications. Serbs being way too pessimistic about this one gives me even bigger motivation to consider a bet on the away team here.

[Jase82]

Was there for 10 minutes now price is removed. all it probably takes in a case like this is 1 clueless punter to bet say £100 on both to score yes then it pushes the No right out if it is just done automatically by computer. Then it stays there until a Bwin trader notices it as the money piles in.

That wouldn't make sense to me. I'm not sure any such flow of money into that market would push the no price out so far. Ok, I've asked very very nicely, but could we please move the discussion away from this :) it's been done to death tbh, and I wouldn't want posts to end up being removed :ok

[allthethings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Faroe Islands +2.5 @ 1.95 Estonia +2.75 @ 1.95 Andorra +2.5 @ 1.93 Kazakhstan +2.5 @ 2.20 Finland no line yet but will be on them if it's +2.5 or better Records in the last Euro and this WC qualifying of huge public favorites of -2.5: 3-13 ...of -3 or better: 1-4 As when England hosted San Marino last fall, I was on the +5.5 and under 6.5 goals...the final was 5-0. Also on Andorra last fall at Holland, +5.25 and under 5.5 goals, final was 3-0. These sorts of handicaps are for the birds.

[allthethings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March One more strange thing about those sorts of matches...the unders tend to happen with the huge favorites away, the overs with the huge favorites at home. And these teams that never score? They score away. Five of six clean sheets at the dog's home...but Malta scored at Czech Rep and Greece, Northern Ireland scored at Portugal, Iceland scored 3 at Portugal, Lithuania scored at Spain.

[allthethings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

One more strange thing about those sorts of matches...the unders tend to happen with the huge favorites away, the overs with the huge favorites at home. And these teams that never score? They score away. Five of six clean sheets at the dog's home...but Malta scored at Czech Rep and Greece, Northern Ireland scored at Portugal, Iceland scored 3 at Portugal, Lithuania scored at Spain.

Putting my money where my mouth is, adding: Austria/Faroe, over 3 @ 1.71 Holland/Estonia, over 3.5 @ 1.96 Andorra/Turkey, under 3 @ 2.05 Kazakhstan/Germany, under 3.5 @ 2.16

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Faroe Islands +2.5 @ 1.95 Estonia +2.75 @ 1.95 Andorra +2.5 @ 1.93 Kazakhstan +2.5 @ 2.20 Finland no line yet but will be on them if it's +2.5 or better Records in the last Euro and this WC qualifying of huge public favorites of -2.5: 3-13 ...of -3 or better: 1-4

How did you come up with these numbers?! Without checking, I clearly remember only in the autumn at least six instances of huge public favorites covering the -2.5 handicap: Hungary at Andorra, Bosnia at Lichtenstein, Israel vs Luxemburg at home (the away game was even bigger but then Israel wasn't considered as a huge public favorite), Spain in Belarus, Montenegro in San Marino, England in Moldovia......To me, this stat you quoted is simply not true and made up to suit a bet you want to make. Anyway, in my opinion each game should be considered individually when deciding to place a bet. I personally don't believe in such groupings of historical results of different teams (even if we speak about recent history). Most of these games have absolutely nothing to do in common, and it is not true anyway that only 3 huge public favorites covered such handicap.

[allthethings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

How did you come up with these numbers?! Without checking, I clearly remember only in the autumn at least six instances of huge public favorites covering the -2.5 handicap: Hungary at Andorra, Bosnia at Lichtenstein, Israel vs Luxemburg at home (the away game was even bigger but then Israel wasn't considered as a huge public favorite), Spain in Belarus, Montenegro in San Marino, England in Moldovia......To me, this stat you quoted is simply not true and made up to suit a bet you want to make. Anyway, in my opinion each game should be considered individually when deciding to place a bet. I personally don't believe in such groupings of historical results of different teams (even if we speak about recent history). Most of these games have absolutely nothing to do in common, and it is not true anyway that only 3 huge public favorites covered such handicap.

I look online to find games only when the public is backing the favorite by more than 90%. **** is one such place.

[Guardiola]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Mario Götze to score. 2' date=30 @ bet365 (10/10) Götze is playing false9 tonight against Kazachstan, Gomez is injured, so this is safe. 2,30 for the most offensive german player with that much skill like Götze is just ridiculous against an opponent like Kazachstan. Thanks bet365.

22´ 0:2, Götze Thank you, bet365 :)

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Bwin are now 1.5 for both teams to score No in the England v San Marino game.:unsure:eek Bwin are big in Italy maybe they have some kind of arrangement with some england players? Cut into 1.42 now which suggests it isnt a palpable error Was there for 10 minutes now price is removed. all it probably takes in a case like this is 1 clueless punter to bet say £100 on both to score yes then it pushes the No right out if it is just done automatically by computer. Then it stays there until a Bwin trader notices it as the money piles in.

Mental price, did you get on? England win to nil is 1.25 now with William Hill so I'm on that with large stakes.

[Paperclip]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Bulgaria game played at closed doors (racism sanction). Bulgaria started well the campaign' date=' but does not have good goal scorer (Berba retired) and have a lot of difficulties finding the net. Malta plays tight and doesn't lose big (even again Italy they lost only 2-0 with the second goal in extra time). Bulgaria, of course, should win this one, but I expect not more than 2-0, and would not be surprised by a narrow and difficult 1-0 win. Not worth at this price for sure, but unders should be considered for this game. Even Under 3.5 could get a good price.[/quote'] Spot on! SIX - zip!

[Primevil]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March ive just noticed on bf..there is a 2 million bet being offered for england to win. if they do, this bet would earn you 20k, less of course your fat cat commision, maybe a 10k profit. are firms that stupid?

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Mental price' date=' did you get on? England win to nil is 1.25 now with William Hill so I'm on that with large stakes.[/quote'] I literally cannot believe firms are this stupid..by the way if San Marino do manage to score tonight I might well be living in a box by tomorrow..

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Mental price' date=' did you get on? England win to nil is 1.25 now with William Hill so I'm on that with large stakes.[/quote'] Are you watching Turkey by the way? Christ they are beyond terrible, making Andorra look a good side..

[NoFear]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

I literally cannot believe firms are this stupid..by the way if San Marino do manage to score tonight I might well be living in a box by tomorrow..

Its 1.2 on betfair, so firms are not too stupid