WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Of course $1.01 shots would not make sense unless you gonna play really heavy. My whole point was that it is a totally wrong assumption that low odds by default would mean no value and only the remote long shots can have value. For this game I expect that at least in the first hours after this market is offered, "England to win to nil" will be around 1.20. Which would be a tremendous value even mathematically given that San Marino needs years and decades to get a goal in official fixtures.

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March [h=2]Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March[/h]San Marino vs England No San Marion goalscorer 1.44 (4/9) paddypower So far this campaign San Marino have played four games, two home and two away. They have conceded a total of 16 goals, eight at home and eight away. They have scored zero goals. They have not scored in a competitive game since October 2008 vs Slovakia. San Marino did score (twice) in a friendly against Malta in August 2012 but they have gone 22 competitive games since they scored. I cannot see this changing against England and in my opinion the 1.44 is real value when it also covers an England own goal, I think. One of the BEST bets of this round of qualifiers IMO. Also pg_yid I really like the look of unders in the Liechtenstein v Latvia game. Great find.

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March San Marino vs England No San Marion goalscorer 1.44 (4/9) paddypower So far this campaign San Marino have played four games, two home and two away. They have conceded a total of 16 goals, eight at home and eight away. They have scored zero goals. They have not scored in a competitive game since October 2008 vs Slovakia. San Marino did score (twice) in a friendly against Malta in August 2012 but they have gone 22 competitive games since they scored. I cannot see this changing against England and in my opinion the 1.44 is real value when it also covers an England own goal, I think. One of the BEST bets of this round of qualifiers IMO. Also pg_yid I really like the look of unders in the Liechtenstein v Latvia game. Great find.

But does it cover a San Marino own goal?! 1.44 looks suspiciously good, but I think that an own goal by San Marino will mean the bet is a loser.

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

But does it cover a San Marino own goal?! 1.44 looks suspiciously good' date=' but I think that an own goal by San Marino will mean the bet is a loser.[/quote'] Yea, I'm not sure but the bet states No San Marino goalscorer so I imagine it's the same as a 1st goalscorer bet where an OG is scored the bet carries on. The 1.44 does look suspiciously good so lump on while it lasts I reckon..

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March If there's an own goal the bet loses, I checked. Still think it's a decent bet though, San Marino have conceded ten goals on numerous occasions with no own goal, and most England will get is five.

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Did a quick check and the last time a San Marino player hit his own net at home was October '98, Israel 0-5, forty-one games ago.

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Did a quick check and the last time a San Marino player hit his own net at home was October '98' date=' Israel 0-5, forty-one games ago.[/quote'] Cheers, not quite as confident but still think it's a good bet.

[Jase82]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Just because a bet is paying $1.01 doesn't mean it's not value. I personally think people who bet on $1.01 shots are lazy and when it goes pear shaped they deserve to take the heavy loss. I mean you only live once and you want to spend your time grinding out pathetic little profits well good luck to you. Fedar is right in what he says but I still think its just a flawed argument and I've basically wasted 10 minutes of my life reading it and writing this.

Each to their own mate. Profit is the name of the game, and we all have different ways of gaining it :ok (or attempting to!) Could we please leave this discussion now as it's off topic slightly :) Plenty of other games to get stuck into :ok

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Cheers' date=' not quite as confident but still think it's a good bet.[/quote'] If you're confident enough in a clean sheet you could actually back ''anytime own goal @ 5'' which would cover you in case an own goal was scored. Or maybe wait and see if you can get better odds at a different bookie.

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

If you're confident enough in a clean sheet you could actually back ''anytime own goal @ 5'' which would cover you in case an own goal was scored. Or maybe wait and see if you can get better odds at a different bookie.

Yea, a cover bet might be the way forward alright. Cheers.

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March San Marino vs England No San Marion goalscorer 1.44 (4/9) paddypower So far this campaign San Marino have played four games, two home and two away. They have conceded a total of 16 goals, eight at home and eight away. They have scored zero goals. They have not scored in a competitive game since October 2008 vs Slovakia. San Marino did score (twice) in a friendly against Malta in August 2012 but they have gone 22 competitive games since they scored. I cannot see this changing against England and in my opinion the 1.44 is real value when it also covers an England own goal, I think. One of the BEST bets of this round of qualifiers IMO. Also pg_yid I really like the look of unders in the Liechtenstein v Latvia game. Great find.

That's a great find mate well done. Unfortunately I am heavily limited with PP otherwise I would be lumping on. I hope another bookie takes similar odds.

[Pay Day]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Moldova Montenegro screams unders, especially as Montenegro will have more than one eye on a home game against England. Moldova are relatively compact (especially if the clown 2nd choice keeper isn't playing) at home. Russia too short below 1.6? NI somehow got a point last round against Portugal away and I don't know if Russia can be trusted away from home.

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Exactly, and that's why there are NO value in the odds. Bet365 are actually one of the worst out there. The only sites who do not limit their punters are the asian bookmakers.

Man United to win the league is currently 1.01 and that is not great value, although it is extremely likely to happen. That is a bet like the kind you describe. But for England to beat San Marino, 1.001 would be a fair price so 1.01 is actually pretty good value, 1.02 even better.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March San Marino vs England No San Marion goalscorer 1.44 (4/9) paddypower So far this campaign San Marino have played four games, two home and two away. They have conceded a total of 16 goals, eight at home and eight away. They have scored zero goals. They have not scored in a competitive game since October 2008 vs Slovakia. San Marino did score (twice) in a friendly against Malta in August 2012 but they have gone 22 competitive games since they scored. I cannot see this changing against England and in my opinion the 1.44 is real value when it also covers an England own goal, I think. One of the BEST bets of this round of qualifiers IMO. Also pg_yid I really like the look of unders in the Liechtenstein v Latvia game. Great find.

Outstanding price, you won't find a better price this year. If it was me I would put everything I can afford on it, 1.44 is unbelievable..truely unbelievable. I can't remember ever winning that much with paddy power but I'm limited to £11.70 on this one and virtually everything else with them :lol.. Honestly, that is the bet of the year, there is no way San Marino will score in that game, I'm staggered paddy power have anything like that online. Still available online, get on if you can.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

That's a great find mate well done. Unfortunately I am heavily limited with PP otherwise I would be lumping on. I hope another bookie takes similar odds.

Has to be the best price offered this season on anything, there is no way anyone else will offer those odds...if b365 do I will wet myself :lol, expect 1.2 is the best we will find elsewhere, if that.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March MODS!!! The thread is a mess already! :lol

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Has to be the best price offered this season on anything' date=' there is no way anyone else will offer those odds...if b365 do I will wet myself :lol, expect 1.2 is the best we will find elsewhere, if that.[/quote'] I agree, can't think of any better bet than that this season. I remember in England vs San Marino last year I managed to get a large stake on over 2.5 @ 1.2 with Bwin which was an outstanding price, they actually opened at 1.25 but missed that! But this is even better.

[quote]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March What about Romania winning in Hungary? How many Steua players are in the first line-up?

Bulgaria game played at closed doors (racism sanction). Bulgaria started well the campaign' date=' but does not have good goal scorer (Berba retired) and have a lot of difficulties finding the net. Malta plays tight and doesn't lose big (even again Italy they lost only 2-0 with the second goal in extra time). Bulgaria, of course, should win this one, but I expect not more than 2-0, and would not be surprised by a narrow and difficult 1-0 win. Not worth at this price for sure, but unders should be considered for this game. Even Under 3.5 could get a good price.[/quote'] Hungary game the same.

[Petersson1984]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

You continue to be disrespectful, but you only make yourself look foolish when you easily define others as inexperienced and meanwhile write things which reveal your fundamental lack of experience and knowledge of the matter. First, bookies do give bonuses to winning players. If they believe that those winning players will start losing in the future. Second, if you continue to play this "low odds - very high stake" model and a trader limits you, then on the next day this trader will be looking for a new job. Because he has made the ultimate mistake in the business by turning the player into an eventual net winner with regards to his company by kicking him out before he started losing money and turning back into a net loser. Sorry, but you really seem to have read a few things here and there which make you believe your petty talks and arguments are well founded, but you have very little practical experience with what you are talking about and are making wrong conclusions based on fragments of information that you picked while reading here and there.

It's not disrespectful to call others inexperienced, if they are. A person who just got his driver's license is an inexperienced driver. Look around the forum. A lot of inexperienced punters out there. That not patronizing. You are talking rubbish. 1. Why would a winning punter with a continuing ROI of 20-30 % accept a bonus and/or be granded one? If you have proven yourself over time will bookmakers NOT give you a bonus and expect the punter to start losing. They limit him to avoid further losses. Don't fool yourself and stop talking about matters you have no knowledge about. If you continue to play "low odds - max stake", and keep winning, will the trader limit you. No doubt. If you do it a couple of times with mixed results will they not. The majority of UK/EU based bookmakers mark their customers based upon their preformance and playing pattern. If you are located in the high risk group, are you not a customer for long due to low personal limits. Regarding me reading and concluding on a false / fragile basis, do I work in the industry and have experience the business on both sides of the table. Both as a supplier, tipster and punter for over the last decade. Let's leave it with that and make room for people who want to discuss the up & coming matches.

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March To be PG and Hastgill, you do realise in the event of a San Marino own goal the bet loses? Like the stat I provided shows, it's unlikely, but if England get a few, it's a risk. Well done on getting Over 2.5 in the last match at Bwin too, I would of put my bank on that but I don't use Bwin :( Edit: Steven Taylor in for Cahill, maybe that's why Paddy had the bet up :lol:unsure

[pg_yid]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

To be PG and Hastgill, you do realise in the event of a San Marino own goal the bet loses? Like the stat I provided shows, it's unlikely, but if England get a few, it's a risk. Well done on getting Over 2.5 in the last match at Bwin too, I would of put my bank on that but I don't use Bwin :( Edit: Steven Taylor in for Cahill, maybe that's why Paddy had the bet up :lol:unsure

Yes I realise that, the bet isn't a cert but @ 1.44 it's excellent value considering an own goal is unlikely. Personally I reckon 0-3 or 0-4 FT because the England players are at a crucial point of the domestic season and probably won't be too bothered about this game, they will see it as an opportunity to have a kick around without getting injured as long as the points are secure. Anyway, it doesn't matter to me because PP will only let me put £11.60 on it. It's worth getting a Bwin account IMO.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Bit of a strange one... Was looking at the odds for San Marino v England 'both teams to score - no' on the odds comparison, just to see if anyone else had priced it up..red32 had it at 1.08, couple of others at a similar price and Bet Victor for some reason best known to themselves had it at 1.65!! I have to be a bit crafty with them now as Ive been banned twice but managed to get a decent chunk of change on before they pulled the bet. Unfortuntely I see they have now voided it and returned the cash to my account. Bugger.

[stressina87]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Cahill hurt his knee in Sunday's game against West Ham and will not play in Rimini but will be reassessed ahead of Tuesday's game against Montenegro. Newcastle centre-half Steven Taylor has been called up following some impressive recent performances in the Barclays Premier League. Cahill's absence adds to coach Roy Hodgson's defensive woes. Spurs' Michael Dawson pulled out on Sunday, to be replaced by Joleon Lescott, while Rio Ferdinand also pulled out of the squad on Monday as he continues to follow an intricate fitness programme. Steven Caulker was Ferdinand's replacement with both the Manchester United man and Dawson ruled out of both matches over the next week. Whilst Hodgson's defensive formation for Friday's encounter with San Marino may not be a concern, next week's clash with Montenegro in Podgorica certainly will be. Unless Cahill's knee injury eases sufficiently for him to be made available, England face the uncomfortable scenario of selecting between players who have next to no international experience - Taylor and Caulker have one cap between them - and Joleon Lescott, who is out of favour at Manchester City. It puts into stark perspective Ferdinand's decision to snub an international recall on fitness grounds and underlines why Hodgson was so keen to have him back in the fold. England currently trail Montenegro by two points in Group H, although have a succession of home games next season meaning a draw next week would not be a disaster. Defeat most certainly would be though and whilst it is a rather unpalatable thought, there could be a chance Hodgson will consider using Michael Carrick in defence given he has occupied the role for Manchester United in past emergencies. Taylor will aim to show Hodgson he does not need to take such action though. "It's a dream come true," he told www.nufc.co.uk. "I am so happy to have received a call-up to the full squad. It is every player's ambition to represent their country and it is the greatest honour in professional football. "If I am lucky enough to be given that chance over the next seven days it will be one of the proudest moments of my playing career." Newcastle boss Alan Pardew added: "This is a fully deserved call-up for Steven. "He missed part of the season but since his return he has been outstanding. "He has a great chance, on this form, of going to the World Cup."

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Hastgill i would complain about that. Betvictor are well known for wrongly calling palpable error. That isnt a palpable error its just they havnt given proper attention to their pricing. I have had palpable error called on a price of 2.1 in the both teams to score market when next best price was 1.9. Basically they are cheating after the market moves against them.

[Jase82]

Hastgill i would complain about that. Betvictor are well known for wrongly calling palpable error. That isnt a palpable error its just they havnt given proper attention to their pricing. I have had palpable error called on a price of 2.1 in the both teams to score market when next best price was 1.9. Basically they are cheating after the market moves against them.

In this instance I'd say its a palp because the odds should be around 1.08 as Hastgill stated, and Betvictor had it at 1.65.

[Alexc]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Turkey clean sheet, or ''home goals under 0.5'' is 1.30 at Sportingbet, for anyone interested.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March Is anyone sure about the own goal rules for both teams to score. I couldnt find any rule about that on paddypower website and i asked in live chat and the person told me an own goal is treated the same as any other goal. Live chat people can sometimes get things wrong however. Does anyone actually know for sure or are people assuming and can anyone find the rules on their site. Thanks. I think it makes a big difference to the bet in my opinion and all both team to score bets.

[HastGill1]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Hastgill i would complain about that. Betvictor are well known for wrongly calling palpable error. That isnt a palpable error its just they havnt given proper attention to their pricing. I have had palpable error called on a price of 2.1 in the both teams to score market when next best price was 1.9. Basically they are cheating after the market moves against them.

I was trying my luck mate. Wasn't much chance at all of them honouring the bets, must be some sort of record though I created the account, placed the bets, had the bets voided, the markets removed from the website AND my account closed within about 20 minutes!

[quote]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March

Turkey clean sheet' date=' or ''home goals under 0.5'' is 1.30 at Sportingbet, for anyone interested.[/quote'] Anyone can score a goal to Turkey. That's a bad bet. Turkish players don't know how to defend. Moreover, Andorra is home. Don't take it.

[swindonfan]

Re: WC > Europe Qualification > 22 - 23 March I think you are being a little kind there Hastgill and Jase. you have been taking similar type bets on San Marino/andorra etc on a number of occassions in the past with different bookies at around those odds. whats the difference this time? These bets have always been around and been cut quickly into 1.2 ish as the bookmaker sees the money come in. Bookmaker should take the hit cut the price same as any other bet otherwise that isnt fair on the punter.