BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb

[Blazing Bailey]

Kempton 6.30 - Sole Danser - 8/1 Bet365 BOG I have had a look at this race and I think I will take my chance with Sole Danser. I like the look of the fav but he is up in class over a shorter trip. He bumped into the consistently improving Bussa LTO but the odds look a little skinny considering the different conditions. Sole Danser has been a little unlucky recently, but given the way he runs, that is no surprise. However, I think he is back under his preferred conditions at the right track with a top jock on board. Risks attached but a fair price at the moment.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb W2.30 Boomtown Kat e/w 25/1 Bet365 This is one of only 3 c&d winners in the field and has won off a higher mark in the past. That win was the horses only win to date so clearly has a strong bias towards c&d. That win was off a mark off a 5lb higher mark (12lb if you include the jockeys claim) and was a fair while ago, but some of the horses runs since then have been encouraging enough including a couple of good efforts at the track. It's also interesting that the trainer has had 2 winners from her last 4 runners (0 for 25 prior to that). It looks likely to run a decent race at its optimal conditions so the 25/1 looks a decent e/w bet.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 19.00 Kempton: May's Boy @ 14/1 Bet365 He's done way better in his most recent start here at Kempton than the bare result might suggest. He had a wide draw to overcome and took over the lead from 6f out, crossing over to the inside eventually. His very inexperienced rider went far to strong then, it was a very aggressive ride from the front, yet May's Boy travelled really well and it looked possible as if he'd be able to hang on. But inside the final furlong he weakened badly and was swept by the the field, to finish only 6th in the end. With this fine performance he confirmed his strong penultimate run, when he was beaten just a neck. He's up 2lb now but still 1lb below his last winning mark, when he won with loads in hand last April over course and distance. Racheal Kneller gets the leg up again what's a positive as she won on May's Boy already and is well worth her 5lb claim. She's more balls than many of her fellow male apprentice colleagues I'd say. Overall I think May's Boy is overpriced.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb This could be my last post for a wee while as my pc is on its last legs and could be in pc heaven by midnight. I'll have another stab at the bumper at Bangor-On-Dee, kick off 17:20hrs Its another tough puzzle of a race but the stand out horse & bet for me is the P.Hobbs runner, jockey R.Johnson makes the trip for 3 rides but only one ride is for Mr Hobbs. Another horse by Flemensfirth and came home 4th last time out under jockey T.O'Brien at Ffos Las, that run was on heavy ground and he's sure to know and understand alot more about racing game today and now under R.Johnson for the first time he simply MUST be in the shake up. Standout sole runner for Mr Hobbs. We could get a race from the NTD Horse, Market check ! 5:20 Bangor-On-Dee, Weigh It Up 1pt Win Bet @ SP

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 5:30 Kempton NOGUCHI 9/4 Paddy/Boyles/WH (bog) Course - tick, distance tick, fitness tick, recent form tick, handicap mark double tick, jockey.... not so sure, buthere's hoping young Mr Tart can get the job done tomorrow - at least he managed a winner today. Noguchi isn't getting any younger but has at least been running pretty well in this class of race (4) unlike Thecornishcowboy who steps up. Hilali is interesting returning back on the flat with Spencer booked, but has a long absence to overcome and Las Verglas Star may also find this a stiff test on his return to flat racing.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 4.10 Lingfield Ringa Bay 1pt win @ 16/1 William Hill I wouldn't advise anyone to back this horse win only but I need decent winner to make some headway in the competition so thats what I am putting up. Emperors Choice looks to be heading in the right direction and will surely be suited by a step up in trip. Alderluck is a horse I was most interested in when initially looking at the race. He got the better of a very well backed horse from the Tom George yard last time out and the pair of them pulled 20 lengths clear of the 3rd. He has gone up 8lbs for that win which may anchor him but I would still expect him to run well with the yard in great form. The horse I have sided with is Ringa Bay who has a consistent profile when encountering ground with any sort of cut in it. His record on ground good to soft or worse reads 2-1-1-3-1-3 whereas his record on good ground or better reads F-F-PU-8. For that reason I am willing to forgive his latest run at Sandown where he finished well beaten 8th of 10 behind Goring One. He ran a good race 2 outings ago to finish 3rd behind the progressive Loch Ba, and looked as though he may be suited by this step up in trip. It is an unknown but he is certainly bred for stamina and will hopefully go well. Mr P York has ridden him for all but one of his career starts so the jockey booking isn't an issue. He actually comes into this race in good form with a couple of recent winners. He may well find 1 or 2 too good or his stamina may give way but I think he is worth a small bet in conditions that will suit.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 15.20 Bangor: Corrin Wood, 11/4 BetVictor, win Corrin Wood finished third lto on his handicap debut. He ran quite well and finished under 10L behind the improving Shutthefrontdoor. He runs from the same mark today. The trip and ground will suit. This is just his sixth run over hurdles so there could be a bit of improvement to come. Trainer Donald McCain is in decent form. Jockey Jason Maguire has a great record at this track, with a 28% SR from nearly 200 rides for a lsp of £80.32.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb Kempton 5.30 Las Verglas Star Generally consistent sort who won a class 2 handicap at Ponty last September off 3lb higher than todays mark. Ran some other good races last season too, notably when second at Ripon, Ascot & Goodwood. Has run here once before when second in a nursery in 2010 so should handle the surface & 10f is fine. Been running in maiden/novice hurdles so is fit & will be more at home back on the flat with the useful George Chaloner taking off 7lb. Bet. Las Verglas Star 1pt win @ 5/1 Hills BOG. Rio.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 410 Lingfield: Alderluck 1pt 7/1 (PP) Won very nicely last time and up 8lbs for that effort but looks in good heart and maybe a good time to follow him. His last two wins have come in heavy ground so has no worries on that score and stays all day. Pipe is going well and the young jockey takes 7lbs off. The fav is respected but only just got up last time and had a hard race so is worth opposing this time.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 1:55 Fairyhouse - Waaheb - Back Super consistent type who's run some crackers in good races in recent starts and should be good enough here. Fell lto which is uncharacteristic for him but I fancy him to bounce back here in a race that is the easiest task he's faced in a while 1pt win @ 3-10 Bet365 BOG

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 1720 bangor 1pt win im fraam govan 5/2 betvic im giving the selection another chance today,as last time ran a very poor race,maybe it was the all weather track,or the long lay off,but after a short break,54 days,and if the form of last may comes back,a bonus would be heavily backed beforehand,if not i am hopeful that a return to the winners enclosure,tongue tie fitted today

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 4.20 - Bangor Du Ranch @ 9/1 William Hill Apoligies for the short write up. I must be pretty mad taking on Coverholder but I wouldnt back 2/5 on a horse in a class 4 handicap. He has a massive chance but has had a few races in the space of a short time, steps up in trip and faces slightly better opposition today. My selection is Turbo Du Ranch, who I feel is off a decent mark now. Some of his novice form suggests he is better than this and I feel the key to his chances today could be the drop back in trip. Runs off a mark of 113, 9lbs lower than his opening mark and has a 7lb claimer to ease the weight burden further. Looks to prefer left handed courses which he gets today and he hasn’t been too far away on his last 2 starts when his stamina has looked as if it has been stretched. Overall I think he will give Coverholder the most danger and 9/1 looks too big in my opinion.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 2.55 Fairyhouse - 1pt win Somedaysomehow @ 14/1 (Bet365) Not a great deal catching my eye on these shores today but this one over at Fairyhouse looks overpriced to me as she returns from stiff company and a 2m4f trip last time - neither of which seem ideal. Her best form has come over the minimum 2m trip over hurdles - winning her maiden over the distance and then finishing 3rd in a decent novice race on her only other try at 2m. She ran as well as could be expected in the latter mentioned race as the two that beat her have franked the form and are a little bit better than her. She was sent off at 33/1 last time in a Grade 3 where she was off level weights with horses regularly rated 20lbs higher than her in the field. I think it's probably wise to forgive her that effort now she drops back into a 0-115 handicap - running off a mark of 113. Her sole win came after an absence so the two-month break may have done her some good and conditions seem ripe for another bold crack at a race.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb Ling 4.10 - Alderluck 1pts win (6/1 BetVictor) A pretty tricky looking race but I've sided with the ten year old Alderluck who came back from some poor efforts when landing a handicap at Bangor lto and doing so in pretty decent fashion. Although not a given I'm hoping that has signaled a return to form and he can build on that effort here.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb

W2.30 Boomtown Kat e/w 25/1 Bet365 This is one of only 3 c&d winners in the field and has won off a higher mark in the past. That win was the horses only win to date so clearly has a strong bias towards c&d. That win was off a mark off a 5lb higher mark (12lb if you include the jockeys claim) and was a fair while ago, but some of the horses runs since then have been encouraging enough including a couple of good efforts at the track. It's also interesting that the trainer has had 2 winners from her last 4 runners (0 for 25 prior to that). It looks likely to run a decent race at its optimal conditions so the 25/1 looks a decent e/w bet.

25/1 to 5/1 :eek

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb

1720 bangor 1pt win im fraam govan 5/2 betvic im giving the selection another chance today,as last time ran a very poor race,maybe it was the all weather track,or the long lay off,but after a short break,54 days,and if the form of last may comes back,a bonus would be heavily backed beforehand,if not i am hopeful that a return to the winners enclosure,tongue tie fitted today

non runner 1655 fairyhouse 1pt win sizing chile 8/13 betvic second on debut last time out when beaten by blackmail,mullins horse cost 85k euros so they will be looking for a return,ground is a bit better today,also has a race entry on saturday, trainer has a 36% strike rate in bumpers in last 12 months

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 6.30 Kempton - Haywain - 5/1 Bet365 Think he looks pretty solid this one and should go very close. Ran down close home by the well handicapped Bussa lto and was over 4 lengths clear of third. Still lightly raced and from a respected yard/jockey combination. Not a ton of pace on here so hopefully he gets a handy sit from a good draw. Few other interesting sorts in the race and close to backing a couple of others. If Alnoomas gets an easy lead he could go close, as well as Night Trade and Dishy Guru looking well handicapped at big prices.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb

25/1 to 5/1 :eek

Just a shame it ran like a 25/1 shot Frederico!! 11th of 15 at 4/1 favourite, oh well at least I wasn't on my own in fancying it !

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb

Kempton 6.30 - Sole Danser - 8/1 Bet365 BOG I have had a look at this race and I think I will take my chance with Sole Danser. I like the look of the fav but he is up in class over a shorter trip. He bumped into the consistently improving Bussa LTO but the odds look a little skinny considering the different conditions. Sole Danser has been a little unlucky recently, but given the way he runs, that is no surprise. However, I think he is back under his preferred conditions at the right track with a top jock on board. Risks attached but a fair price at the moment.

NR!

[Karijini]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb No joy today so far with currently only Robertob's selection to go in the 19:00. Best of luck Robertob! Placings 2nd: Smith17 11/4 (2/1 ISP), Lodge 9/1 (11/2 ISP), Corky 15/8 (10/11 ISP) Good luck for tomorrow.

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 27th Feb 7.30 KEMPTON. TANAWAR 5/2 WILL HILL BOG Tanawar is drifiting a bit, but really should take care of these, he is a high 60's horse, taking on lower opposition.. til late. He may open 11/4, but should be backed tonight, prime distance and track,, as ever i wait uny