February 4 - February 10

[CzechPunter]

Here we go guys, I hope more of you will get involved this week with so much on offer! Back Juan Monaco to win ATP Vina del Mar for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with Stan James Back Jeremy Chardy to win ATP Vina del Mar for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Stan James Going against Rafael Nadal here. He is obviously the big favourite to win this, but, given how long it took him to get on the courts again, I am not sure that he really deserves this favoritism. Jeremy Chardy and Juan Monaco are both capable of beating him if he is still not completely alright and the prices seem fair to me, so I am going to go with these two outrights. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-vina-del-mar-betting-rafael-nadal-might-find-it-tough-to-win-straight-away Back Marcos Baghdatis to win ATP Zagreb for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Stan James Cilic is the favourite, but it will take a lot for him to recover from the Davis Cup antics and I would not be surprised by seeing him going out of the event rather early. Marcos Baghdatis is ideally placed to benefit from that, as he is good enough to beat Cilic and he is going to meet him rather soon (and that is a good thing for him), so I am willing to have a small punt on him doing well this week at these odds. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-zagreb-betting-the-tournament-in-zagreb-might-be-affected-by-the-davis-cup-action

[Pensioner65]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Like CzechPunter above I'm going for an outright but at the the ATP Open Sud de France. Michael Llodra to win ATP Open Sud de France @26.00(E/W 1,2) Corals(1.5/10) Really like this bet & even better seeing that Llodra is in the bottom half of the draw & misses potential clashes with Monfils,Gasquet & Berdych.ML will have a tricky 2nd round match vs Tipsarevic,but I believe Llodra will have enough in the locker to beat JT,especially on the indoor courts.On his favourite surface & also playing at home,Llodra always raises his game & produces his best tennis.This bet is each way,so the bet will be a winner if he can get to the final. :hope

[Torque]

Re: February 4 - February 10 These are the outrights I have so far, and I may have a couple more later. Lay Rafael Nadal to win ATP VTR Open @ 1.45 Betfair If this isn't the time to lay Nadal to win a tournament at a short price, then I don't know when is. He has been off the tour for six months due to injury, and although I'm sure he is happy with his fitness, at a tournament like this I don't think he will want to push himself too hard. He has been quoted as saying that results are the least important thing right now, and I think he will be using this tournament to get some match practice and to perhaps work on his game in general. I think his main focus will be the European clay court swing, where he should be looking to get into top form ahead of the French Open. I also think that if his knees bother him even in the slightest, there is a chance that he could retire during a match or pull out of the tournament. Although I don't like the look of any other players enough to back them, I think Nadal has to be opposed here. Back Gael Monfils to win ATP Open Sud de France @ 17.00 >Betfair I think Monfils is worth a look in this tournament, which is on home soil for him and played in conditions that he enjoys. He is in the top half of the draw, and he is unseeded as his ranking has slipped due to being injured at the end of last season. This means he is entered into the draw in the first round, and if he comes through his match against Bemelmans he will face Gasquet in the second round. He has a good record against Gasquet, and coupled with his encouraging start to the season, I think he will be confident of beating him if they meet. As Berdych and Gasquet may not be able to give of their best due to their recent Davis Cup exertions, and given that they should be the main competion for Monfils in his half of the draw, I think there is some value in backing him to go well this week.

[homunculus]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Zagreb Indoors R1 parlay: Lacko to bt Cipolla x Dimitrov to bt Karlovic @1.802 Pinnacle (5/10) Cipolla is typical claycourter that dos not perform well on quicker surface. Lacko is big server, defends final from the last year here and seems to be in good shape lately. Dimitrov is still struggling a bit after his good run in Brisbane earlier this year, but I suppose he will want to make some good result here after his killer performance at Bul-Fin DC (lost only 6 games in two "best of five" matches, but, alas, Bulgaria lost the tie). And Karlovic is injured (back issues), and he is here only because he must attend the home tournament.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo to beat Guillaume Rufin for a 1/10 stake at 2.93 with Pinnacle Two match bets to kick things off, although I am going to keep the stakes fairly low at the start of the week. I would have Ramirez-Hidalgo a bit shorter in this particular match-up, so I feel that backing him today might be worth it. He is the more experienced guy of the two and the conditions in Chile seem to favor defense over offense, so he should like the courts and have enough to out-play Rufin. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ramirez-hidalgo-vs-rufin-betting-the-experienced-spaniard-might-be-able-to-beat-rufin-in-chile Back A.Ungur/J.Benneteau - Over 19 games for a 2/10 stake at 1.99 with Pinnacle Back Adrian Ungur to beat Julien Benneteau for a 0.5/10 stake at 12.39 with Pinnacle I guess that Julien Benneteau is going to win this, but this price and line look a bit off nonetheless. Adrian Ungur is a solid player with a good serve and a very strong forehand, so I expect him to keep this rather close. He did not have to play that much during the Davis Cup, so that should not be an issue for him. Benneteau has not played since the Australian Open, so he might be a bit rusty and I just cannot see the reasons for him being priced at such short odds here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ungur-vs-benneteau-betting-the-romanian-can-trouble-julien-benneteau-in-the-opening-round

[Torque]

Re: February 4 - February 10 One more outright for me. Back Lukas Lacko to win ATP PBZ Zagreb Indoors @ 26.00 >Betfair I think Lacko could have a good week in Zagreb. He seems to play his best tennis indoors, and he has done well at this tournament in recent years. I think he stands a good chance of getting to the quarters, where he could possibly face Melzer, and if he were to get to the semis, he might meet Seppi. I think he is capable of beating both players in these conditions, particularly as Melzer is out of form whilst Seppi was playing Davis Cup matches on clay recently. Lacko hasn't played since the Australian Open, so he should be feeling fresh and ready to go in an environment that he likes, and I think he can build on what has been a good start to the season for him.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Well, Lacko did play in the Davis Cup over the weekend, although I suppose that it should not be a big problem for him.

[Torque]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Thanks CzechPunter. I hadn't noticed that Lacko was in Davis Cup action. I'm still happy enough to back him, though. Good luck with your bets this week.

[WWWYKI!]

Re: February 4 - February 10 I was looking at him myself at 40s but when the price dropped I couldn't bring myself to back him.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Somdev Devvarman to beat Jurgen Melzer for a 1/10 stake at 2.44 with Pinnacle Going against Melzer twice, although with minimal stakes. Devvarman is a very hard working guy that seems to be ready to make his comeback after missing a large part of the previous season, so I expect him to be at his best against Melzer, who was not playing well in Kazakhstan in the Davis Cup and who has some off-court issues to deal with as well. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/devvarman-vs-melzer-betting-somdev-devvarman-looks-value-against-jurgen-melzer- Back Elgin/Zelenay to beat Melzer/Petzschner for a 1/10 stake at 2.75 with Bwin The German-Austrian duo has more quality than Elgin/Zelenay, but the two have not played together for quite some time and both seem to be playing below their standards at the moment, so there is every chance of them losing this. Elgin and Zelenay are no world-beaters, but they can be very competitive when on song and I fancy them to play well today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/elgin-zelenay-vs-melzer-petzschner-betting-petzschner-and-melzer-might-find-themselves-in-a-spot-of-bother

[WinningTipster]

Re: February 4 - February 10 1 pick for ATP MONTPELIER: LLODRA- DE SCHEEPER OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 1.7 on pinnaclesports Llodra is simply a better known player but De Schepper is so good on fast surfaces, should not be an easy match for Llodra.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Kenny de Schepper (+3) to beat Michael Llodra for a 2/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle Kenny de Schepper has already beaten Llodra once and I fancy him to play well today as well. Both guys are great on serve and poor on return, which means there might be a few tie-breaks in this one, so I quite like the plus handicap line here. The overs might also be a good option, but I am never too comfortable with such high lines, so going with the handicap instead. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/de-schepper-vs-llodra-betting-the-french-battle-might-be-a-rather-tight-affair Back Mikhail Youzhny (-3) to beat Igor Sijsling for a 2/10 stake at 1.84 with Pinnacle Mikhail Youzhny is the defending champion in Zagreb, so I do expect him to be on the top of his game after not being quite at his best over in Australia. Sijsling is way too one-dimensional and the Russian should be able to take advantage of that weakness, so I believe that he will be able to cover this handicap line. He is certainly good enough to do so quality-wise. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/youzhny-vs-sijsling-betting-mikhail-youzhny-should-be-too-strong-for-the-dutchman

[slider24]

Re: February 4 - February 10 ATP Montpellier - Jan Hajek to beat Viktor Troicki @ 10/3 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Good time to fade Troicki I think. He's fairly mediocre at the best of times these days but after a physically and mentally draining Davis Cup weekend win over Belgium I think he'll fall a bit flat tomorrow. He did enough to get by the young Frenchman Pouille today but he'll find someone like Hajek a tougher nut to crack. The Czech is a journeyman but can play well on all surfaces and will provide the sort of obstinate challenge that Troicki may not fancy. Troicki also defending a few points in Rotterdam next week so another reason to think his mind won't fully be on the task ahead. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Albert Montanes to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver for a 2/10 stake at 1.82 with Unibet The conditions in Vina del Mar are very slow and that is something that Montanes should like more than Gimeno-Traver, who is more about flashy shot-making than longer rallies. He also leads the H2H record and needs to get some wins in this particular clay swing, so I expect him to be fully up for this battle of Spaniards. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/montanes-vs-gimeno-traver-betting-albert-montanes-can-prevail-in-vina-del-mar-today Back Gael Monfils to beat Richard Gasquet for a 2/10 stake at 2.26 with Pinnacle Monfils looked quite alright in his first match against Bemelmans and Gasquet will have a bigger fish to fry next week, so I feel that it is worth backing Monfils to prevail here at these odds. There is not much between the two quality-wise, so with the question of motivation thrown in, I believe that this should be a 50/50 contest at worst. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/monfils-vs-gasquet-betting-gael-monfils-has-what-it-takes-to-defeat-his-compatriot-in-montpellier

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Sergiy Stakhovsky (+4) to beat Jarkko Nieminen for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Pinnacle Fancy Stakhovsky to cover this rather big handicap line. There is not much between the two quality-wise and their H2H meetings have always been rather tight, so I cannot see Nieminen winning today as effortlessly as the handicap lines might be suggesting. He has defeated two veterans in Serra and Davydenko, so fair play to him, but this should be much trickier. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/stakhovsky-vs-nieminen-betting-sergiy-stakhovsky-to-cover-the-handicap-line-against-jarkko-nieminen Back Mikhail Youzhny (-2.5) to beat Ivan Dodig for a 3/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Not too fond of going against Croats in Zagreb, but this is a line worth taking in my opinion. Youzhny looked well against Sijsling and you would expect him to like his chances of defending the title here. Meanwhile, Dodig has played so much tennis recently that this challenge might really be coming in the worst possible moment and the home advantage should not be enough for him to win today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/youzhny-vs-dodig-betting-mikhail-youzhny-should-be-too-strong-for-the-local-favourite

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Benoit Paire (+3) to beat Michael Llodra for a 3/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnacle Paire is a very talented player that has all the shots to beat someone like Llodra, so I fancy him to cover this handicap and perhaps even win the match in all honesty. Llodra had plenty of problems against Hajek, so not sure whether he has enough to win yet another match in Montpellier. The thing is, he will get outplayed from the back of the court today and he is going to have some problems at the net as well, which is enough for me to back Paire on the plus handicap here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/paire-vs-llodra-betting-benoit-paire-has-what-it-takes-to-get-under-llodra-s-skin Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Marin Cilic for a 2/10 stake at 2.60 with Pinnacle Going with Youzhny for the third time this week. He looked really good against both Sijsling and Dodig, so I expect him to be truly up for this, while I cannot say the same against Cilic. He nearly self-destructed at the end of the second set yesterday and looked rather tired after the match, so beating Youzhny might really be out of his range at the moment. The odds should definitely be a bit closer here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/youzhny-vs-cilic-betting-mikhail-youzhny-to-continue-his-title-defense-with-yet-another-win

[rochemback]

Re: February 4 - February 10 hello everyone, i've been following this thread for some time now and decided to make a modest contribution by sharing some tennis tips M. Čilić - M. Youzhny 2 @ 2,45 local Youzhny dismantled Dodig with ease yesterday, he seemed confident from the begining and beside his well-known backhand, his serve worked really well. Čilić played against Kavčić and had some troubles over the course of the match, making a decent number of UEs and looking very shaky at some points of the match. I feel that Youzhny is in better shape and that the home advantage doesn't mean too much in this encounter + Youzhny will give everything today as he is defending the title in Zagreb. All in all, I expect a tightly contested match and a win for the Russian which is priced generously, 2,45 in local. P.S. sorry for grammar mistakes if found

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 :welcome rochemback and good luck!

[Sound2k9]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Not sure if I should post this here because it's not a tip as such but I was wondering whether not anyone has tried betting larger stakes (ie. all in) on only Djokovic, Murray, Nadal and Federer, and occasionally the others in the top 8, more specifically in the Slams/Masters? The odds are always very short but consider odds of 1.1 (1/10) which are pretty reasonable on the top 4 winning a lot of their matches ie. Nadal's odds for beating Chardy are 1/12. Let's say you decide to start with £200 (this could even be a free bet from Bet365), you can rack up a lot of money by being patient. When you consider how consistent the top players are at the moment it sounds like it's worth a shot don't you think? I'm going to try it around the clay season when there's a lot of big tournaments.

[rochemback]

Re: February 4 - February 10

:welcome rochemback and good luck!

Thank you mate!! What's your opinion about the Melzer - Haase match? I fancy Jurgen's chances but are the odds worth taking? Thanks in advance

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 That is an interesting one and you are often going to hear that it is not the right way of doing things. I, personally, cannot say a definitive verdict. But patience is the key and matches have to be chosen very, very carefully. It is also worth playing at bookies that void retirements, since that is something that could hurt you. I know one guy that made a lot of money by doing that, but you simply have to be incredibly patient with picking your spots.

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10

Thank you mate!! What's your opinion about the Melzer - Haase match? I fancy Jurgen's chances but are the odds worth taking? Thanks in advance

Both are giant head-cases at the moment, so not a match that I would like to bet on right now (and the odds are nothing special). If live betting is your thing, that is what you might try in this match, but I cannot see anything interesting pre-match.

[KennyDelight]

Re: February 4 - February 10 I was interested in Safarova's opening price, now at 1.95.... something tells me this could be value except for Safarova's all gun blazing style of play I saw in the GDF tournament. She has a habit of playing with no brains when she doesn't have the margin for error to do so Stosur hasn't played since the Australian Open and isn't in the greatest of form but it looks like she will be fighting to avoid a 2-0 deficit for Australia Czech Punter about?

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Well, I really have no idea what to add to that. It could be a roller-coaster, but who is going to win I have no idea.

[slider24]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Challenger Quimper - Fabrice Martin - Philipp Oswald OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 10/11 BET 365 Strength (7/10) One of these challenger matches on an indoor hard court that screams overs. Both Martin and Oswald have huge serves and are fairly limited on return. Fancy Martin as the better player but he's been a bit under par recently so he should find Oswald and his serve and tough ask, and vice versa. Both guys struggle to win in straight sets either (they are a pair of mugs to be honest) so all in all confident this will be a tight one. :hope

[markymark]

Re: February 4 - February 10 VTR Open R. Nadal - J. Chardy - Pick J. Chardy (+5.5) @ 2.06 - Pinnacle Sports (2/10) Nadal has been playing quite well after the injury but you can see in his play that he's probably trying to save all his best for the French Open. His current style at the VTR Open reminds me a little bit of Federer's play at the AO (winning matches by just doing enough :) ) Chardy has got a decent record on clay and I think that the match might end 6-4, 6-4 or with a tie break in one of the sets which is why the above handi seems quite reasonable at these odds. Cheers, Mark

[CzechPunter]

Re: February 4 - February 10 Back Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Jurgen Melzer for a 2/10 stake at 1.84 with Pinnacle Just one for me today. Basically, I really fancy Cilic to get the job done rather easily now that he has managed to get past Youzhny. Melzer has always been a good match-up for the Croat and I just cannot see Cilic not winning this in Zagreb, where he will get plenty of support from the fans and where the conditions suit his game. Melzer is not at his very best just yet and he would need to raise his game to another level in order to win here, which is something I just cannot see him doing right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cilic-vs-melzer-betting-marin-cilic-should-be-able-to-out-play-the-austrian-in-zagreb

[BiloxiDesire]

Re: February 4 - February 10

These are the outrights I have so far, and I may have a couple more later. Lay Rafael Nadal to win ATP VTR Open @ 1.45 Betfair If this isn't the time to lay Nadal to win a tournament at a short price, then I don't know when is. He has been off the tour for six months due to injury, and although I'm sure he is happy with his fitness, at a tournament like this I don't think he will want to push himself too hard. He has been quoted as saying that results are the least important thing right now, and I think he will be using this tournament to get some match practice and to perhaps work on his game in general. I think his main focus will be the European clay court swing, where he should be looking to get into top form ahead of the French Open. I also think that if his knees bother him even in the slightest, there is a chance that he could retire during a match or pull out of the tournament. Although I don't like the look of any other players enough to back them, I think Nadal has to be opposed here.

Nice pick :clap