robertob's eye-catcher thread

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 14.30 Lingfield: Mossgo @ 10/1 + Outbid @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win each Bet365 This is a shockingly awful race, which opens the door for the two 3yo Mossgo and Outbid, though. The filly Outbid was of interest for me quite recently already, when she ran at Kempton a pretty fine race, finishing second - followed closely behind by Mossgo - coming a good deal clear of the rest of the field. The winner was too strong and could go on to win a couple more races I think, but take her out, the field that day was probably as "strong" as tomorrow, which should give my both selections a chance tomorrow. Outbid came first to my attention on her penultimate run at Wolverhampton, which was way better than the bare form of that race suggest. She had the widest draw to overcome, what is always a negative there, yet she travelled very much the best turning for home, got then, however, badly hampered and had no chance to finish the race. Her best forms all came on the All-Weather, so it was nor surprise to see her beaten at Chepstow after that, even though she travelled nicely for a long time there as well, but didn't find much in the closing stages or simply didn't stay the extra furlong, and was eventually eased down. She won a maiden at Lingfield in good style at the beginning of the year, though, and finished a strong third less than a lengths beaten at Southwell later, so she has a bit of ability and with her low AW mark with decent recent form she can go close in this poor contest. Mossgo is a bit a frustrating sort. After his win at Lingfield last winter of a 9lb higher mark than the current one, he didn't show much and as a result the mark slipped down. But his latest run suggests he's turning the corner as he finished a good 3rd, less than half a lengths behind Outbid at Kempton two weeks ago. An interesting performance as he had a bit of a bumped start and was then very keen soon after, as well as short of room approaching the first turn and clipped heels as a result. Yet he travelled strongly until the 2f marker, switched then to the inside once approaching the false rail and finished well hands and heels ridden. With a repeat of that kind of performance he must go very close today. 16.30 Lingfield: Divea @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Lightly raced filly Divea tackles 2 miles for the first time. She didn't show much in three maidens and two subsequent starts in handicap company on turf but responded well for the switch to the All-Weather and the step up in trip to 12f at Wolverhampton recently. She travelled really strongly in rear of the field for a long time, but got stuck in traffic when trying to make ground from 4f out around the home turn, while much in contrast the leading horses had the run of the race to kick on and fight it out. Once space opened up Divea went for it but had to turn widest of all to do so which cost ground. But once straighten up in the home straight she really motored home in good style to finish 3rd in the end. The way she stayed on is indication that she could cope well with the new trip albeit it is quite a severe step up of course. But she is lightly raced, down to a low mark, has every chance to get the trip and could potentially very well handicapped for this.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread This game can be brutal. At the moment it's one of these spells again. Mossgo beaten a neck at 16/1 by the favourite. Outbid was a non-runner... Divea scratched in the 4.30...

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 17.15 Pontefract: Mappin Time @ 14/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Mappin Time looks extremely well handicapped on old form and while he has yet to win this year he showed a couple of nice eye-catching performances in 2013. I'm happy to ignore his most recent performance at York two month ago, which came in a big hot handicap. But if I look back to his penultimate performance at Haydock, which really caught my eye, as well as the two fine runs before that as well, I think it gets clear that Mappin Time is still well capable of winning, and with his mark dropping even further now, he looks really well handicapped. Actually he run really well on many occasions this season, just has been a shade unlucky. So it's not that he is really losing much of his ability due to aging. He is now down to a mark off 77 though, which is 4lb below his last winning mark and in fact it is a career lowest mark. Certainly he's a better chance than 14/1 tomorrow, even though Pontefract is a really tricky track, particularly for hold-up horses. But he has a good low draw, and might be able to get a decent position early on, and the fact that he acted on tracks like Beverly and Chester is encouraging in terms of him being able to run well at Pontefract.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Mappin Time was a non-runner after playing up in the stalls... 13.30 Haydock: Jamaica Grande @ 12/1 + Royal Sea @ 12/1 - 1pt win each Bet365 Wide open race and I've two horses to run from my list here and both look overpriced. Royal Sea won over course and distance here at Haydock last month when finding the way the race was run against himself actually, but he showed a lovely attitude to pull out more when put under serious pressure in the closing stages. His subsequent run at Catterick is to forgive, as he dwelt and was behind, and facing an impossible task. He confirmed his fine form at Wolverhampton lto though. He was slowly into stride again and was trailing the field for a long time, made then a big move from 5f out though, improving position on the outside of the field travelling 5-6 wide. He had to turn very wide as a result but made further headway to suddenly emerge in 2nd position approaching the home straight. He was unable to match the pace of the eventual winner then and faded badly in the closing stages as he had to pay tribute to all the energy he used up before, to finish a long way beaten in 3rd place in the end. Still a fine performance, considering the circumstances. With conditions to suit he can run well tomorrow again. Jamaica Grande looks a different horse since stepping up in trip. He won well a handicap at Kempton over 10f, his first try over this trip. The race was poor, but the way he drew away in the closing stages looked good. His most recent start over the same course and distance was quite eye-catching to me then, suggesting a further step up in distance could bring out further improvement. Jamaica Grande travelled extremely well in rear that day, which isn't the best position over the 10f trip at Kempton due to the ultra short run-in, though. He looked suddenly outpaced once approaching the home straight but stayed on pretty well in the closing stages. He steps up to 12f for the first time now, and performances as well as pedigree (out of King George winner) suggesting that he should have no problems getting the trip. 17.40 Wolverhampton: Katmai River @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Thought it was a very nice performance by Katmai River over course and distance last time out when he finished a fine 2nd behind impressive winner Tatting. He travelled really well for a long time and tried to kick away approaching the home straight, he soon brought some space between him and the rest of the field - bar the eventual winner. Tatting was just too good that day but Katmai River beat the rest of the field convincingly. He's on a quite long losing run of course but also down to a very low mark and tomorrows field isn't stronger compared to the rivals he encountered the last time. Also the 7lb apprentice looks capable, despite still looking for her first win, though. 18.10 Wolverhampton: Tatting @ 9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win I really can't understand this price, expected much shorter for Tatting. Yes, his most recent run at Kempton was disappointing, but if you can forgive him that performance and judge him on his penultimate run at Wolverhampton then he should be really hard to beat, particularly as being able to race of the same mark. In the mentioned race he travelled super strongly, and despite having to go wide all the way around the home turn as the widest travelling runner, he had loads in hand to win almost on the bridle. He couldn't quite follow up on this at Kempton for whatever reason, which was an unusual run for Tatting, but now back at the venue of recent success over the same trip he should be very competitive, even more so with decent 3lb claimer Da Silva in the saddle.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Finally a winner! Tatting absolutely hacked up approaching the final furlong marker even on the bridle! Nice to see some confidence rewarded as the recent weeks were tough. The other selections didn't run as well as hoped. Katmai River never featured while Royal See was all the way outpaced and behind through the race, even though Jamaica Grande finished a decent 3rd and didn't get the best of runs but in all fairness the winner looked too strong anyway.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 21.00 Wolverhampton: The Great Gabrial @ 9/2 Bet365 - 2pts win The Great Gabrial was hugely progressive this year and if you ignore the Catterick form - which I happily do, as it is such an odd track - you see a horse that won two of his last three starts in addition to the strong but pretty unlucky most recent performance. That day at Wolverhampton, two weeks ago, he travelled well enough in rear but as soon as approaching the home turn he was locked and stuck in traffic, with no chance to get out. He switched to the right over 1f out eventually, quite a hard manoeuvre, and from there on it was difficult to straighten- and pick up soon enough as he was simply running out of time. He overcame these difficulties well and quickly though, and motored home, was then slightly hanging close to the finish line and finished only fifth in the end. But the way he picked up that quickly in a matter of strides was hugely impressive as well the way he travelled so well through the race. This suggests there is still more to come and he should be very competitive of the same mark tomorrow evening.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.50 Newmarket: Gabrial The Great @ 25/1 + Proud Chieftain @ 50/1 - 1pt win each Bet365 The Cambridgeshire is a hugely competitive race this year as always with many good and interesting runners but there are two horses that look well overpriced in my mind. As the pace should be strong it probably is an advantage to stay a bit further than the 9f and that makes Gabrial The Great really interesting here. He clearly is best over 10f, he goes well on fast ground, and he has an eye-catching recent performance to offer, when he finished 2nd to Ascription over 1m. I believe he can turn around this form in a race like this over the additional furlong, meeting Ascription on four pounds better terms as well. Gabrial The Great travelled like a dream that day, two weeks ago, almost on the bridle until the 1f marker, but couldn't quite cope with the turn of foot and pace of Ascription in the closing stages. Yet he finished the race well, came a good deal clear of the rest of the field. Nice performance, considering the slightly too short trip and with todays conditions in favour I think Gabrial The Great has every chance to run a big race. Proud Chieftain looks a huge price but he's a much better chance than the price suggests, in my mind at least. He clearly stays ten furlongs very well, he handles fast ground, he goes well at Newmarket and his most recent performance gave me the impression that he's really well in himself and more than capable of running a big race of the current mark. He travelled very much the best that day, still on the bridle 2f out, but he was locked on the inside, with no chance to get out. He was soon after also slightly hampered, lost a bit of ground and simply had to wait and suffer. Over 1f out space opened up in front of him and he finished the race in good style, without getting fully ridden out. It's fair to say he would have finished closer with a clear run. He should give good account here today.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Well, that was a rather disappointing Saturday unfortunately. My selections ran not badly in the big handicap, but in the end haven't been good enough and finished 8th and 9th, around five lengths beaten. The Great Gabrial then was utterly disappointing and I didn't expect it. Was a strange race sure enough, and an odd ride, but still, I expected better. 15.40 Hamilton: Konzert @ 10/1 StanJames - 3pts win Lightly raced Konzert must have a big chance conceding loads of weight from the other eight rivals here. He comes into this race after a really good performance at Wolverhampton, and with his US pedigree I would have liked to see him appearing on the All-Weather again, but there is something suggesting he could appreciate a bit of cut in the ground as well, as his sire's best performance came on slower ground actually, so he's of high interest here today I feel. Konzert didn't show too much in his first five starts, but looked very much improved last time out, as well as down to a mark he is capable off winning. He was slightly outpaced soon after the start, trailing the field for a long way, and as a result he faced an impossible task turning for home, and in fact the eventual winner travelled all the way from the front and wasn't to catch. But Konzert really made some eye-catching ground once straighten up in the home straight suggesting he's ready to strike sooner rather than later. Today he's facing older horses for the first time, but with the weight for age allowance, as well as his low mark plus the assistance of a decent 3lb claimer in the saddle he should really be poised to run a big race. I fear the threat of I'm Super Too most, as that one looks dangerously well weighted now. But fairly confident in my selection today, thinking 10/1 is a huge price.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Wow that was another really big disappointment. Missed the break and never featured. Wouldn't give up on Konzert, though. If he's back on the All-Weather he'll be interesting of a probably lower mark. 14.10 Ayr: Two Shades Of Grey @ 11/4 Paddy Power - 5pts win If Two Shades Of Grey gets a clear run tomorrow he should hack up and beat this lot convincingly. Not that I have a reason to be too confident in my selections after poor recent weeks but Two Shades Of Grey appears to be simply too well handicapped to lose here at the sixth time of asking. He was utterly unlucky last time at Hamilton, when he travelled well in rear and jockey Tony Hamilton looked to have loads of horse beneath in the closing stages but it wasn't to be. Two Shades Of Grey was stuck in traffic with no chance to get anywhere through and to make things worse he got badly hampered under 1f out, soon after he switched to right and it was hugely impressive to see this 2yo picking up so strongly as he hid and dropping in class but stepping up in trip, which can only be an advantage on pedigree, I can't see Two Shades Of Grey getting beaten here of his mark off 64. Let's hope confidence is once justified.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.15 Ayr: Gran Canaria Queen @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win Gran Canaria Queen should be shorter after her heroic performance at Ayr in a big Handicap sprint when he was just unlucky to be drawn on the wrong side. She raced on the far side with only a handful of horses, while a huge group had the full advantage on the stands side. Gran Canaria Queen ran a big race nonetheless, she finished almost five lengths clear of the rivals on her side, ears pricked even idling a bit in front as she had nothing to race against, while a race was ongoing on the other side, so that she finished only 4th in the end. She can race off the same mark tomorrow and looks still to be ahead of her mark after she won four times this year already, improving by 19 pounds. She won with a bit in hand at Newcastle at her third last start I felt, and while she was probably found out for class at her penultimate run at Hamilton in a hot class 3 Handicap, her most recent performance at Ayr, back in low grade, showed she is still well in the weighs, at least against the kind of opposition she's encountering in a class 5 handicap.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Shameful. Many disappointing days recently but this tops it. Both third and quite well beaten actually. Hard to believe... 18.40 Kempton: Tammuz @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Lightly raced Tammuz caught the eye at Wolverhampton lto, when he had to overcome the 2nd widest draw, which is a difficult task over the 7f trip there. He settled in rear, travelling very well but had also loads to do turning for home. He really motored home in the closing stages while not looking the most straightforward ride, though. Over 1f out he had to switch in order to get run through a gap and the way he picked up quickly again was impressive. The step up in trip back to 1m looks in his favour tomorrow and I expect him to make use of his low looking mark. 21.10 Kempton: Sea Soldier @ 18/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Thought Sea Soldier ran a fine race here at Kempton quite recently. He got a very light ride from an inexperienced apprentice and was in a pretty bad position for a long time, first trailing the field and then turning widest of all, four wide, he ran on really well though under a very light hands and heels ride and might soon ready to strike. If not tomorrow then the next time but he's down to a very low mark now and never have been able to show the same sort of form as he showed during his 2yo season. But this most recent performance suggest a return to form and while an inexperienced rider is booked again he claims valuable 7lb and I feel Sea Soldier is worth to have a small bet.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

Shameful. Many disappointing days recently but this tops it. Both third and quite well beaten actually. Hard to believe... 18.40 Kempton: Tammuz @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Lightly raced Tammuz caught the eye at Wolverhampton lto, when he had to overcome the 2nd widest draw, which is a difficult task over the 7f trip there. He settled in rear, travelling very well but had also loads to do turning for home. He really motored home in the closing stages while not looking the most straightforward ride, though. Over 1f out he had to switch in order to get run through a gap and the way he picked up quickly again was impressive. The step up in trip back to 1m looks in his favour tomorrow and I expect him to make use of his low looking mark. 21.10 Kempton: Sea Soldier @ 18/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Thought Sea Soldier ran a fine race here at Kempton quite recently. He got a very light ride from an inexperienced apprentice and was in a pretty bad position for a long time, first trailing the field and then turning widest of all, four wide, he ran on really well though under a very light hands and heels ride and might soon ready to strike. If not tomorrow then the next time but he's down to a very low mark now and never have been able to show the same sort of form as he showed during his 2yo season. But this most recent performance suggest a return to form and while an inexperienced rider is booked again he claims valuable 7lb and I feel Sea Soldier is worth to have a small bet.

Mmmmm tell us about it fella, even backed a dog the other day ''something i aint done in years'' T6 - first bend bumped ended up tailed off. Running out of burns cream here.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Well, that's the way it goes from time to time. Experienced something similar earlier this month, even though it's quite far off that yet, the winner on Friday was helpful. As always: Patience will pay off at some point. It's all about the long term in this game. Hope things go better later tonight... 14.40 Warwick: Aspirant @ 10/1 VC - 2pts win Looks a bit a harsh price, even if it a competitive race this here tomorrow. Aspirant is lightly raced, open to further improvement stepping up in trip, which should in fact be in his favour, and I thought he showed a good performance at Bath lto over 6f, when he finished very wide and run on well, even though the winner was simply too good - won subsequently a class 2 handicap at Haydock! This form looks strong not only for that reason but other horses from that race run really well subsequently too. I also liked Aspirant's performance at Kempton, when he won over clearly too short 5f. He showed a nice attitude that day, while being badly outpaced, to win nicely in the end.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

Shameful. Many disappointing days recently but this tops it. Both third and quite well beaten actually. Hard to believe... 18.40 Kempton: Tammuz @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Lightly raced Tammuz caught the eye at Wolverhampton lto, when he had to overcome the 2nd widest draw, which is a difficult task over the 7f trip there. He settled in rear, travelling very well but had also loads to do turning for home. He really motored home in the closing stages while not looking the most straightforward ride, though. Over 1f out he had to switch in order to get run through a gap and the way he picked up quickly again was impressive. The step up in trip back to 1m looks in his favour tomorrow and I expect him to make use of his low looking mark. 21.10 Kempton: Sea Soldier @ 18/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Thought Sea Soldier ran a fine race here at Kempton quite recently. He got a very light ride from an inexperienced apprentice and was in a pretty bad position for a long time, first trailing the field and then turning widest of all, four wide, he ran on really well though under a very light hands and heels ride and might soon ready to strike. If not tomorrow then the next time but he's down to a very low mark now and never have been able to show the same sort of form as he showed during his 2yo season. But this most recent performance suggest a return to form and while an inexperienced rider is booked again he claims valuable 7lb and I feel Sea Soldier is worth to have a small bet.

Tammuz a nice winner @ 7/1! Finally, something for the confidence. Sea Soldier was backed into 10/1 but missed the break and bumped into the rails soon after, never really travelling too well afterwards and no chance.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Always difficult coming from off the pace at Warwick, yet Aspirant ran well I feel. Travelled very much the best of all but had loads to do turning for home and didn't finish strongly enough in the end. 14.30 Ascot: Jodies Jem @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win I felt Jodies Jem was a shade unlucky not to finish closer than 3rd last time out at Sandown in awful conditions. This lovely progressive gelding travelled like a dream, on the bridle approaching the 2f marker, he was short of room and hampered, though, having a tough time finding a gap, when he switched widest of all eventually and finished well there. His only wins came on the All-Weather so far, but he was only neck beaten at Sandown earlier this year and produced then this lovely most recent performance, suggesting there is more to come. 19.55 Wolverhampton: Malaysian Boleh @ 11/2 PaddyPower - 3pts win Living the Life is a strong favourite here, having been probably a shade unlucky recently, but looks not the most straightforward horse and is too short in my mind, while Malaysian Boleh doesn't get quite the respect he deserves. He won with a good deal in hand over course and distance in his penultimate run while dropping in trip to 6f at Kempton two weeks ago, which wasn't in his favour. While he travelled strongly in rear, he had to switch widest of all and it took him then a while to hit top gear while the first three kicked away in that stage. Once in full swing Malaysian Boleh finished fastest of all, though, cutting back the deficit in promising fashion. back over 7f he should have a major chance tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.30 Wolverhampton: Sylvia Pankhurst @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Since winning a good class 4 Handicap at Chester (form works out well) she lost her form, finishing down the field in three subsequent starts. However that's been really good races, as she contested even in a Listed race, and it is fair to say she is better than these forms suggest. She had a little break since August and is of high interest now returning to the All-Weather where she improved rapidly earlier this year, winning three times, including two course and distance wins. She looked to have loads in hand when appearing the last time on the All-Weather, when she won a handicap at Lingfield in really good style off a 6lb lower mark than the current one. She can probably improve on this surface again and it is interesting to see her coming back after her little break fitted with a visor for the first time. She has a nice draw tomorrow, which is important in these sprint races around Wolverhampton and this should play into her hands taking into account that she loves to race handily. All in all 11/1 looks too big, particularly with Martin Harley booked who rides Wolverhampton extremely well.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Ante-Post - Melbourne Cup (05/11/13): Royal Empire @ 33/1 Bet365 - 1pt win It was confirmed yesterday that Royal Empire will head to Australia for the Melbourne Cup, a message I was happy to hear as I fancy this horse for quite a while for this race. Pretty much since he won the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury a couple of weeks ago actually, when he stepped up to 13f for the first time and beat Red Cadeaux as well as subsequent Group 2 winner and stablemate Lost In The Moment. He appeared to be outpaced from 4f out but kept going and found plenty under pressure to win in good style in the end. He stepped down to 12f in his next two starts, getting beaten a head at Kempton in a Group 3 and then finishing a strong second at Ascot last Saturday in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes. They didn't go a mad gallop there but he was badly outpaced when the pace increased turning for home, yet he run all the way to the line and stayed on in fine fashion. While Royal Empire's breeding isn't quite conclusive about his staying abilities, his running style clearly indicates he wants further. Around the 12f trip he usually gets outpaced 4-3f out, but he always gallops all the way the line, not stopping, shaping like a stayer, who could produce a bit of a turn of foot over further, though. Two miles is an extreme trip of course but he got 13f easily and looked go go further, so I don't see a reason why he hasn't a decent chance of getting the trip. He also has the ability to quicken, he likes fast ground and has still potential for improvement. He's pretty much on the up the whole year. Godolphin looks to have some confidence in him either, as he'll be their only representative this year, while they look to have a couple of other nice candidates on hand actually. He has been allocated a weight of 54kg for the Melbourne Cup, which looks a pretty fair weight. After all he looks to have the right profile of a Melbourne Cup winner, which would be the first one for Godolphin. It is not an easy task, having no prep run in Australia before, but that aside, looking at the strong but far from unbeatable opposition, he has a really good chance to go close and 33/1 looks big enough. Surly he'll be much short on the Melbourne Cup itself.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.50 Brighton: Copper Trade @ 13/2 PP - 2pts win Copper Trade was probably better than the bare result of his most recent run at Chepstow suggested. If he is he would have gone very close for a win that day if it wouldn't have been for his rivals that were crossing his line and which resulted in the situation that gaps closed and he was short of room from 3f out, while travelling very strongly. His jockey had to hold Copper Trade back, in fact relegated him to the rear of the field, in order to be able to switch around the whole field and get a clear run on the outside. Once straighten up he flew home to finish less then 2 lengths beaten in 2nd. On that evidence it looks as if he could get further, as he really stayed on nicely, while his pedigree is inconclusive. Surly Brighton over 1m on softish ground is a very much different test to Chepstow over 7f so it has to be seen if he can see out the trip in these kind of conditions at a track with a very testing final furlong. But it is far from impossible and the fact that he is lightly raced, open to improvement and can race off the same mark as done lto should ensure that he has a very good chance to close tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 19.50 Wolverhampton: Elizabeth Coffee @ 14/1 William Hill - 2pts win Judging Elizabeth Coffee's most recent performance it looks as if the drop in trip will suit as she comes down to 9f again, a trip she was a big eye-catcher over on her penultimate start. That day she got bumped at the start, she was then travelling well but was short of room turning for home which cost vital momentum as the leaders had first run and got a big break on the field. She motored nicely home once approaching the home straight, though, until she got hampered around 1f out, she had to switch slightly and pick up again, what she did in impressive fashion. Judged on that performance she is down to a really nice mark and therefore she looks too big in price here today. The assistance of a decent 5lb apprentice can be only a bonus.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 13.55 Curragh: Bush Pilot @ 5/1 VC - 2pts win Usually not my type of race but Bush Pilot was a massive eye-catcher on debut at the Curragh a couple of weeks ago and I feel he could be a bit special potentially, so this price could look foolish at some point - so can I with the case I make for the horse as well, of course. But Bush Pilot should be alright for the step up in trip on pedigree, where's speed on the sire side but plenty of stamina on the dam side, also the way he raced over 6f on debut indicates clearly that he'll relish further. That day he got a very educational ride, saw never the whip, and was really well looked after by Pat Smullen. He trailed the field while travelling super strongly, on the bridle almost until the 1f marker, even though he was slightly niggled half way through the race to keep up with the field. But then over 1f he switched to the right and picked up instantaneously, producing a nice turn of foot to finish in impressive style. That maiden wasn't the strongest but also not a bad form with the 2nd having finished 3rd to Sudirman and winning a Listed race subsequently. Bush Pilot looked above that lot in my mind and with more improvement to come he could be hard to beat here today despite facing some nicely bred horses in the line-up.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 20.50 Wolverhampton: Konzert @ 25/1 SJ - 2pts win Konzert didn't show too much in his first five starts, but looked very much improved in his penultimate outing, when showing dramatic improvement for the first start on the All-Weather. That day he was slightly outpaced soon after the start, trailing the field for a long way, and as a result faced an impossible task turning for home, and in fact the eventual winner travelled all the way from the front and wasn't to catch. But Konzert really made some eye-catching ground once straighten up in the home straight suggesting there is more to come on this surface and that he's ready to strike sooner rather than later. He couldn't back this performance up the next time, switching back to turf, when he finished a disappointing last. But ignoring that performance, there is this massive run over course and distance three weeks ago and judged on that he must have a better chance than his big price suggests. Fallon probably isn't booked for nothing either.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Not going to be at the moment, Konzert was backed from 25/1 into 7/1! but got a horrible trip around then. One to keep an eye on for the next time, though. Bath 16.45: Interakt @ 33/1 SJ - 1pt win Comes down to a super low mark, has conditions very much in favour as she can't have it soft enough, and she is one from one over course and distance. On pure form she didn't show anything this year, but I though her penultimate run was clearly better than the bare form suggest. She travelled nicely in rear, but stumbled when the crossed over to the stands rail over 3f out and soon after she had nowhere to go, stuck in traffic while looking to have a bit more to give in the closing stages with a clear run. She didn't respond to 1st time cheek pieces at Yarmouth lto and was always behind. She drops another couple of pounds, has a good jockey on board and looks wide open. On her day she's capable of outrunning the price.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Interakt was a non-runner as the Bath card was abandoned after the fourth race. 18.40 Kempton: Lutine Bell @ 11/1 VC - 2pts win Lutine Bell was really unlucky not to finish much closer than what the form reads the last time at Kempton. He travelled like a dream, still on the bridle approaching the 2f marker but didn't get the in-running luck as gaps weren't really opening for him. He was eased down and saved for another day but gave the impression he could be ready to strike soon, now down to a really good mark. He's yet to win at Kempton in five starts but was twice placed of much higher marks and he clearly is a very good All-Weather horse, even though he didn't get his head in front for quite a long time. If things go well for him tomorrow then he'll have a big chance and therefore is overpriced in my mind. 19.10 Kempton: Konzert @ 16/1 VC - 1pt win Konzert was backed like mad a couple of days ago at Wolverhampton, opening at 25/1 and starting at 7/1 but then didn't quite get the run of the race having to travel very wide from 4f out while making a big move from that point onwards but having to turn widest of all for home and losing vital ground. The jockey soon realized entering the home straight that the horse wouldn't catch the leaders and eased him down, as it was pointless to beat the shit out of the horse only to finish fifth or something. He can race off the same mark tomorrow, and I would like to think Kempton could be a track that suits him much better. He looks a horse perfectly suited to the All-Weather surface anyway and he is still open the improvement, being generally lightly raced. While Konzert didn't show too much in his first five starts, he looked then very much improved on his All-Weather debut, when showing dramatic improvement for the new surface. That day he was slightly outpaced soon after the start, trailing the field for a long way, and as a result faced an impossible task turning for home, and in fact the eventual winner travelled all the way from the front and wasn't to catch. But Konzert really made some eye-catching ground once straighten up in the home straight suggesting there is more to come on this surface and that he's ready to strike sooner rather than later. He couldn't back up this performance the next time, switching back to turf, when he finished a disappointing last, but ignoring that performance, I can see a horse with a massive debut performance on the All-Weather and an unlucky second run on that surface. Considering he is in the same form, not getting a hard race three days ago, he should be competitive off a low weight tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Konzert a non-runner, but really disappointed with Lutine Bell. Was probably not the best position to travell off the pace but still it was disappointing effort. 19.50 Kempton: Martinas Delight @ 25/1 Ladbrokes - 1 pt win Really interesting to see this filly finally appearing on the All-Weather as her pedigree is pointing in that direction and the drop in trip should be in her favour as well as 10f might simply stretches her stamina a bit too far. She caught my eye on her penultimate run, on good ground over 10f at Newbury, though, when she was in with a big chance in the closing stages, making some good headway but got then suddenly badly hampered which resulted in her losing rhythm and every chance. If she would have won with a clear run, god knows, but she looked bound to go really close that day. Her most recent run on rain softened ground at Windsor is one to ignore as that's not her conditions, while she has done quite well in a couple of maidens last year, this season wasn't hers yet. But she could improve a good deal for the change of surface and if so then she could be easily really well handicapped. She is quite a big price, too big in my mind, with Fallon booked, suggesting connections are rather hopeful of a big run.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Martinas Delight ran like a 25/1 shot. Beaten early. 21.10 Wolverhampton: Seaside Rock @ 9/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win Seaside Rock is back after break but I have little doubt that he'll be ready to run for his new trainer as Dalgleish is in excellent form lately and if he comes down to Wolverhampton his horses often run really well. He got this three year old gelding from the Hannon yard where it soon emerged that Seaside Rock won't be a Group horse. But he is still lightly raced and it wouldn't surprise if he would have a good bit of improvement left in him. He won well a Handicap over 1m at Kempton last winter on his Handicap debut and showed in his three subsequent starts that there is still more to come, as he finished 2nd at Lingfield over probably too short 7f when he was beaten for speed in the closing stages while is most recent performance at Newbury in June is the actual eye-catching one, as that day he had absolutely everything against himself: A poor start, he got hampered and unbalanced soon after and didn't travell at all for the rest of the race, yet looked in with a good chance 2f out but then was simply stuck in traffic and didn't find gaps. He got a pretty light ride as well in the end, but stayed on well in the final furlong only hands and heels ridden. He wasn't seen after that, now with Dalgleish though, and also slightly stepping up in trip, which probably should suit considering the way he finished off his races, as well as back on the All-Weather and older and stronger, I would like to think his mark is potentially lenient.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 19.10 Wolverhampton: No Win No Fee @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win No Win No Fee ran a huge race considering the circumstances last time out at Wolverhampton over 7f on his first start since May. Not only did he have to overcome the second widest draw in a 12-runners strong field, which is always a disadvantage at Wolverhampton as the first turn comes almost straight after the start, but in the case he got hampered before entering this first turn and in consequence lost ground and had to settle in rear. He travelled widest of all without cover the whole race and while he made a huge move from 4f out on the outside in order to be in a decent position turning for home, this manoeuvre cost loads of energy and he was forced to turn four wide on the extreme outside. It was impressive to see how determined he galloped all the way to the line to finish an excellent 3rd in the end. This was only his fifth start, his first on the All-Weather and there should be definitely more to come. He steps up in trip and on pedigree the extended 9f are not unlikely for him to get. He can race off the same mark as last time, which could be lenient and as the feather weight with a good draw he looks to have plenty in his favour tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.55 Wolverhampton: Konzert @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Konzert was backed like mad before his last start at Wolverhampton, opening at 25/1 and starting at 5/1 but then didn't quite get the run of the race having to travel very wide from 4f out while making a big move from that point onwards but having to turn widest of all for home and losing vital ground. The jockey soon realized entering the home straight that the horse wouldn't catch the leaders and eased him down, as it was pointless to beat the shit out of the horse only to finish fifth or something. To me he still looks a horse perfectly suited to the All-Weather surface anyway and he is open the improvement, being generally lightly raced. While Konzert didn't show too much in his first five starts, he looked then very much improved on his All-Weather debut, when showing dramatic improvement for the new surface. That day he was slightly outpaced soon after the start, trailing the field for a long way, and as a result faced an impossible task turning for home, and in fact the eventual winner travelled all the way from the front and wasn't to catch. But Konzert really made some eye-catching ground once straighten up in the home straight suggesting there is more to come on this surface and that he's ready to strike sooner rather than later. He couldn't back up this performance the next time, switching back to turf, when he finished a disappointing last, but ignoring that performance, I can see a horse with a massive debut performance on the All-Weather and an unlucky second run on that surface. Considering he is in the same form, he should be competitive getting also a chance by the handicapper as he's allowed to race off a 2lb lower mark tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Another hugely disappointing performance from my selection. Tough times... 19.00 Kempton: Dominium @ 7/1 Coral 3 pts win Dominium looks still ahead of the handicapper considering how well he is in form judging on his last two tremendous performances. He produced a stunning turn of foot at Kempton three weeks ago and was able to put a huge margin between himself and the rest of the field in a matter of strides to win easily in the end. Stepping up to 7f was no problem for him the next time, but the pace of the race was. It wasn't particularly fast run and it was clearly and advantage being ridden close to the pace, which meant Dominium faced an uphill task turning for home trailing the field. The front-runner won in the end but Dominium clearly finished the strongest gaining a huge amount of ground. He's up another 2lb for this, so 8lb above the last winning mark now, but very talented Robert Tart takes off invaluable 3lb, which should be an enormous help. In addition to that Tart and trainer Jermey Gask enjoying a 29% strike rate this year together.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Overall Stats after the end of 2013: What a year it was. Roller-coaster at its best! The eye-catchersare the only thing I do in terms of serious betting with serious money. Everything else is small stakes and testing. As my other threads and tests went rather horrible, the flagship of my betting is still in profit, but it was a difficult year and I'm not where I want to be. It started horrible, the first quarter something like the loss of 150pts, it went from the lowest point ever to the highest point ever with a spring and early summer like in heaven. And it ended awful, which is mainly down to myself, since I wasn't able to put in the time and effort required to watch the races and make good decisions since I took on a new and much more responsible job in real life which makes it difficult to make enough time available for this. But after more than a year since starting this I'm still in profit with my eye-catchers, which makes me also proud, as it shows it can be successful. For the new year, I'll try to change the way I make time available for racing and when. Hope it works, as otherwise it's useless to continue. Only If I can put in the time and effort required - and loads of that is needed if you're strategy is betting on eye-catchers, since you have to watch all the races, and doing so certain parts of races again and again and again... it is time consuming, but can be rewarding - it has the chance to be profitable. Staked: 457pts Returned: 505.32pts Profit/Loss: +48.32pts ROI: +10.57% Bets: 188 Wins: 24 S/R: 12.76%

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11.50 Lingfield: Copperwood @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Copperwood seems to be in very good nick considering his latest impressive performances. He won well and with a bit of authority a seller at Lingfield on his first start over 10f which seems a distance to suit better now since he doesn't get any younger. That day he stayed on really well. He dropped in trip in his most recent start, back to 1m, when he got a really lenient and poorly judged ride from an inexperienced rider. He travelled still very strongly turning for home but had too much to do and the jockey was quite easy on him. He made some nice headway nonetheless and looked to have much more to give than the eventual result suggested. Now up in trip again, with a decent weight in this claimer and the jockey booked who gave him the winning ride two weeks ago, I think Copperwood has a cracking chance to win this contest.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Copperwood finished 2nd, close to the line beaten by Ocean Applause. Can't complain, horse ran well as expected, got a fine ride and was just beaten by a better horse on the day.