robertob's eye-catcher thread

[robertob]

Time for an own thread after being now constantly active on ATR for around a year. I hope this thread will help me to improve my discipline and does result in being more selective in terms of my bets. I do publish my bets on this form already and on a blog as well but I feel a thread like this may improve my process of finding selections even more as the line between being really confident in a horses chance and just fancying a runner is thin I think, but can be decisive in terms of being successful in the long-term. This thread shall be dedicated to my eye-catchers on the flat only. I record every race that's ran on the flat in the UK and do every day some extensive work, looking through the race and watching out for horses that ran better than the bare result suggested. I tried to bet only on horses from my eye-catcher list in the last couple of month, with decent enough success and I have to say after this time now I feel comfortable and confident as never before in my betting as this style suits me perfectly. I'm not as good in relentless form study, which is tiring and sort of boring after a while for me. I love to watch racing though, and think I have an eye and understanding of why a race is ran and unfolded in a certain way. The watching of races again and again, and certain parts of races in particular, is tiring as well but it's something I really love to put in the effort and it's always rewarding as if you see something that not anyone has seen and therefore it gives you an edge, as watching racing and drawing conclusions on the evidence of visual impression is very much a subjective thing. But obviously you can't do this entirely without form study. After finding an "eye-catcher" it's very much about getting to know the horse's form, preferences etc. to get a clearer picture about the run and future prospects. But then it is helpful in terms of the selection process as the horses literally coming to you. I just get every afternoon a list with horses that are running for me the next day, that itself already helps me to be more disciplined and selective. My "hunting ground" are the low grade handicaps in particular, mostly class 5 and 6 Handicaps, I try to avoid maidens, claimers and sellers, but not entirely, while bets in the top races are rare as I think my edge gets lost there. I know these low grade races are not everyone's cup of tea but I like them, feel comfortable there and think the visual impression tells you allot in these sort of races. In football they say: The truth lies on the pitch. I think racing is no different. All my bets will be between 1-10pts, depending on confidence in the horse. I start with a bank of 200pts...

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.25 Wolverhampton: Gabrial The Boss @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win He's down in a claimer for the first time after running twice in eye-catching fashion. He finished 3rd in a Kempton Handicap in November, when found out for speed in the final 100 yard, he finished a fine 3rd only 1¾ lengths in the end though. This form works out pretty well with three NTO winners. Gabrial The Boss appeared then at Wolverhampton five days later and was travelling best of all turning for home but was very unfortunate to be locked on the inside and lost soon every chance when badly hampered in the closing stages as well. He's now back after a break of four weeks and despite being still a maiden I expect him to be very competitive in this small field with Andrea Atenzia booked for the ride for whom this is the only ride today.

[elbirnn]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Looks like a tight field there..anyway good luck with it:ok

[cpo]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Good luke matey :ok

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks lads! :)

16.25 Wolverhampton: Gabrial The Boss @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win

Winner! Very happy to kick-off the thread with a winner. There was an inquiry after the race because Gabrial The King was drifting quite badly to the inside rail in the final furlong and hampered the eventual second. But I think he would have won anyway and it didn't affect the result too much. Fortunately the stewards were of the same opinion.

[Xtc12]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Good Luck robertob, nice start paddy power were giving double the odds today for any winner at Wolverhampton if you had took SP.

[jonshell]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Best of Luck Robertob. I read your Blog. Went to Donny on Racing post Trophy and smacked your selection kingsbarns. can't remember getting home.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 18.30 Kempton: Brimstone Hill @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win Brimstone Hill was pretty unlucky in his most recent start here at Kempton. He was in the right position turning for home but found himself suddenly locked on the inside two furlongs out, that cost some momentum as he had to switch and find back the balance while the eventual winner and second kicked away in that moment and gained a big advantage through that. When finally in the clear and balanced Brimstone Hill finished like a train and still finished a very fine 3rd. This form works out very well and I assume that despite another raise of his handicap mark by 1lb he is still very well handicapped at the moment. The probably crucial question regarding his chance in this race tomorrow is only if he stays the trip as he step up to 12f for the first time. His sire is a sprinter, he produced some decent horses over longer distances though and there is some stamina on the dam side. Also the way he finishes his races suggests he has a good chance to stay the trip. 19.00 Kempton: Key Ambition @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Thought Key Ambition ran a hugely impressive race at Lingfield lto. He had a wide draw to overcome, was outpaced soon after the start and outpaced turning for home, in addition he really had to turn very wide, in fact widest of all, but stayed on very well on the outside eventually in a manner of a horse that may have a bit in hand over a distance further than 6f. So the step up in trip to 7f will clearly be beneficial on evidence of that run and also the pedigree is pointing into that direction with his sire having been a Group winner over that sort of trip. He's down to a very handy mark now, and his last two runs were eye-catching, even though the most recent one really proved that he is poised to win when finally stepping up in trip (one try over 7f at Southwell so far, I ignore that run though, as Southwell form nor comparable with the other AW tracks). Think 12/1 is a massive price here.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Disappointing today, Brimstone Hill beaten by a narrow margin on the line, Key Ambition was a massive drifter and was clearly not suited by a crawling pace during the race as well. 13.35 Lingfield: My Sweet Lord @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win My Sweet Lord won here at Lingfield impressively two weeks ago. He was travelling in rear of the field for a long way where he was slightly outpaced during the race, and had a good bit to do turning for home in second last position. He then was flying on the inside rail though, staying on as the only on from the rear, to beat the very prominent ridden Small Fury on the line. He surly looks like a horse that has still more to offer as he's lightly raced and the step up to 7f looks rather in his favour than causing any problems. The 4lb raise in the mark could be lenient I feel. The form of this race works out super well as 2nd and 3rd placed have won next time out. 18.50 Wolverhampton: Wordiness @ 7/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win Wordiness probably would have won with a clear run at Lingfield last week. He raced in rear turning for home but picked up nicely and was then travelling very strongly until the 1f marker when he had no room to go and lost every chance to win as a result. He looks poised to win in my mind though, despite being a 12x maiden, as he ran pretty well in the last couple of weeks and the step up in trip to 12f tomorrow may help to bring out some further improvement.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 13.50 Lingfield: Macy Anne @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win This 3yo filly switched yards recently and appeared for Jo Hughes at a racetrack for the first time at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. The bar form of this race looks poor but I thought that absolutely everything went against her there. She had a wide draw to overcome, had a poor start then and was forced to race very wide as a result. She travelled three-four wide all the way but was suddenly very prominent turning for home and maybe hitting too soon the front. She then was hampered by shifting horses in the closing stages and eased down eventually. It's noteworthy that this was her first start after a break since August. She gets another 2lb off her mark nowwhich brings her down to very handy looking mark off 54. Macy Anne is still a maiden but she showed some promise earlier as she finished placed in three maidens at the beginning of her career and finished a very decent second at Bath earlier this year. Jim Crowley takes the ride who is ridding at his best at the moment, so I feel Macy Anne could spring a surprise here tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.50 Lingfield: Spartic @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Spartic ran very well in his last two outings but the most recent run really caught my eye as he had a bad start and was racing very wide as a result of that throughout the whole race. He was then forced to turn even wider for home thanks to a badly to the right hanging rival. Yet Spartic really finished the race in great fashion in 3rd place and probably would have gone much closer in different circumstances. He gives the impression of a well handicapped horse as this performance was a few pounds better than his current mark I suppose and despite being on a long loosing run I think it's worth to keep faith in him. 16.05 Wolverhampton: Stamp Duty @ 5/1 Bet365- 3pts win I thought Stamp Duty was desperately unlucky three weeks ago here at Wolverhampton. In his first start since August he travelled very well in rear of the field but was stuck in traffic when the pace unfolded and the eventual winner kicked on. He had to wait and suffer until a gap opened and then finally asked for everything the response was enormous. He was chasing the leader -home also the eventual winner - in the closing stages, in vain though due to the impossible position he had to come from, yet he finished impressively to land the runners-up spot. Considering this performance he looks very well handicapped which is confirmed by his low mark which is now 7lb below his last winning mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Not going too well at the moment unfortunately, both horses didn't run badly but still way below of what I expected. No horses on my list for tomorrow, but have to fill the list again anyway as didn't work on it on the last two weeks due to holiday. As for transparency of this tread I feel it's time for some stats: Staked: 21pts Returned: 16.50pts Profit/Loss: - 4.50pts ROI: -21.40% Bets: 8 Wins: 1 S/R: 12.50%

[cpo]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread I had a good look at Stamp Duty last night as well mate and was very surprised how badly it ran today. It just goes to show you never know with the low grade stuff! Horses are so inconsistent and its very hard to make it pay IMO. I am sure your next winner is just around the corner :ok

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks mate. I hope so too. Could do well with a winner I suppose. Yeah you're definitely right it's tough with the low grade stuff, though it's what works best for me and what I actually love to put the work in and to try to find the winners. You have often the same horses in the races, you get to know them very well, and it's just great to see one of the old warriors to win again from time to time . :)

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 14.00 Lingfield: Waabel @ 10/1 Blue Square - 2pts win I thought Waabel showed a tremendous performance here at Lingfield in a claimer three weeks ago when he pushed forward from a wide draw and set a suicidal pace from the front. Yet he looked still strong turning for home, though got eventually tired in the final furlong and was swooped by the field, he still fought back however and was even hampered in the closing stages, yet he was only beaten by 2¼ lengths in the end which shows what fine performance this actually was. I think if his jockey gets the fractions right tomorrow Waabel must go very close here despite having to overcome a wide draw. 15.10 Lingfield: Rugosa @ 10/3 Paddy Power - 5pts win Lightly raced 4yo filly that hugely impressed me in her most recent outing here at Lingfield when just the overconfident ride of her jockey cost the win I suppose. She was held up in rear, way too long for my liking and was in an impossible position turning for home, yet was travelling best of all. The front-running winner got a really easy time in front though, set a dawdling pace and suddenly kicked 3f out on, but wasn't really taken seriously but never stopped eventually. Rugosa in contrast wasn't only way off the pace turning for home but also encountered traffic problems. Finally in the clear she finished like a train in the manner of a horse that has quite a few pounds in hand. This was her first start since August so she probably will be even better tomorrow with this run under herb elt and as she showed some nice performances earlier the year already I really fancy her strongly to win this race.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.20 Wolverhampton: Khawatim @ 8/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win Strange performance lto at Lingfield as he was slightly outpaced early on but travelled well enough turning for home, yet his jockey was rather reluctant to ask any serious questions and just started riding really forward from 1f out when the bird was flown already, though. Khawatim responded and finished in good style suggesting he is in decent form. He drops further in the weights though, what brings him down to a very handy looking mark of 71. Apart of this eye-catching facts Khawatim looks a very interesting prospect considering that he was a fairly decent 2yo, having won two races in France back in 2010 and finished 3rd and fourth in Group 3's there in small fields but not far beaten. He couldn't confirm the promise as a 3yo and changed yards twice sine then, having been sold to the UK where he didn't run badly in the class 2 William Birch & Sons Construction Handicap at York on his UK debut. He didn't show anything since then though and slipped down the mark and could become very well handicapped now, as the most recent performance confirmed that he's in good shape and could run better than the bare result suggested. If the handbrake is off tomorrow he's every chance to win this poor contest, the step up in trip to 6f should be in his favour as well.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

16.20 Wolverhampton: Khawatim @ 8/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win Strange performance lto at Lingfield as he was slightly outpaced early on but travelled well enough turning for home, yet his jockey was rather reluctant to ask any serious questions and just started riding really forward from 1f out when the bird was flown already, though. Khawatim responded and finished in good style suggesting he is in decent form. He drops further in the weights though, what brings him down to a very handy looking mark of 71. Apart of this eye-catching facts Khawatim looks a very interesting prospect considering that he was a fairly decent 2yo, having won two races in France back in 2010 and finished 3rd and fourth in Group 3's there in small fields but not far beaten. He couldn't confirm the promise as a 3yo and changed yards twice sine then, having been sold to the UK where he didn't run badly in the class 2 William Birch & Sons Construction Handicap at York on his UK debut. He didn't show anything since then though and slipped down the mark and could become very well handicapped now, as the most recent performance confirmed that he's in good shape and could run better than the bare result suggested. If the handbrake is off tomorrow he's every chance to win this poor contest, the step up in trip to 6f should be in his favour as well.

Finally back in the profit. Khawatim won it in a thriller as he encountered all sorts of traffic problems but class brought him through eventually. He was just so much better than his mark and handbrake was off today. Big gamble on him too, but no surprise as I said in my preview the last performance was a strange one.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.30 Kempton: Khawatim @ 7/4 Bet365 - 5pts win Won today at Wolverhampton after encountering all sort of traffic problems in the closing stages, yet he was brave and won in the final strides by a neck finishing strongly when finally in the clear. I think a penalty won't be able to stop him as he was surely super well handicapped today and the same applies under a penalty in my mind. He's in fantastic shape, and the opposition in this race is not the strongest. 17.50 Wolverhampton: Great Ormond @ 3/1 Bet365 - 4pts win He made his Handicap debut here at Wolverhampton three weeks ago and travelled well in rear but had loads of ground to make up from there. He started a big move from 3f out on the outside but was forced to turn home widest of all eventually what surly cost some vital ground while the eventual winner had the run of the race on the inside. Great Ormond produced a strong finish on the outside from 2f out and finished a good 2nd in the end. No doubt he would have finished much closer with a clear run. This performance suggests he is well handicapped of his low mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 14.40 Lingfield: Derwentwater @ 3/1 Paddy Power - 5pts win Looks a poor race and I think Derwentwater is a better horse than what he has shown in six starts and what his mark is suggesting at the moment. His most recent performance was a big improvement and I felt he had loads against him in the race so the way he actually finished was definitely eye-catching. He was bumped at the start, he pulled very hard after that and was unsettled in the early parts of the race, he was then surly in the worst position of all in this small field when the pace kicked on from 3f out while the field was crawling before. He needed a bit of time to get on terms and was then brought on the inside rail where his jockey switched him a bit to the right again after failing to find a gap right on the inside there. That cost a bit of momentum but Derwentwater found the balance soon enough to start a big challenge and looked to make a winning move until the tank was probably empty and he got beaten by half a lengths eventually deep inside the final furlong. As it looks on the cards that we get a better pace in this race tomorrow I think Derwentwater could be very hard to beat with further improvement expected of the same handicap mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.45 Lingfield: Charming @ 10/3 Bet365 - 4pts win Charming had a wide draw to overcome last time out here at Lingfield. As a result he was racing very wide indeed, 4-5 wide on the outside until turning form home very wide as well obviously which made life not easier. He really finished super strongly then but had no chance with the eventual winner who had rather the run of the race. Charming is 6lb with the winner of that race, Novabridge, tomorrow and has every chance to turn the table I feel as he has a much better draw and could now be very hard to beat in a race like this of a career lowest mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Not too bad today. Charming won; Derwentwater finished only 2nd though. +8.32pts today...

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 14.35 Wolverhampton: Reflect @ 13/2 VC - 2pts win Reflect ran a huge race here at Wolverhampton lto, travelling in rear, while the front-running winner had the run of the race setting a slow pace. Yet Reflect was in with every chance 3f out until encountering traffic problems turning for home. He had to take the widest route around the home bend eventually and that surly cost some ground. He really powered home in the closing stages though, but was a bit shifting to the right and then left deep inside the final furlong as well. Overall I think this was a fine performance and he's down to a very handy mark now. He finished a strong 2nd to Brown Panther in a strong Handicap in 2011, so there is no doubt he has got some ability but is clearly a difficult horse. I think he has a good chance here to find the way back to the winning ways here anyway. 15.05 Wolverhampton: Royal Sea @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Royal Sea was in fantastic form in the last number of weeks improving allot and it looks to me there could be still more to come. He tried 12f for the first time lto and travelled nicely in a prominent position but was then 2f out badly hampered and again 1f out which cost every chance obviously. The step back in trip down to 9f should be no problem though and a more suitable trip and the 2lb rise in the mark shouldn't be a problem either as a decent 7lb claimer is booked for the ride. He's still lightly raced and this race here looks not too competitive I feel. 16.15 Kempton: Do More Business @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Really poor race but Do More Business proved to be in fine shape with a stunning late run at Lingfield last week. He had the widest draw to overcome and was plum last turning widest of all for home. He produced a strong finish on the outside though and a repeat of that performance would see him going very close in this race here.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Winner again today, Royal Sea prevailed in a photo! Do More Business looked the winner 1f out but didn't find much, Reflect had no chance from the rear in a slowly ran race. 1/3 today though, that's fine for me. The thread is finally back in healthy profit and I hope I can continue this positive run. Overall Stats: Staked: 50pts Returned: 74.82pts Profit/Loss: +24.82pts ROI: +49.64% Bets: 17 Wins: 4 S/R: 23.53%

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.30 Wolverhampton: Ryedale Dancer @ 7/1 Bet365 - 4pts win Ryedale Dancer ran a huge race here at Wolverhampton last week finishing a smart 2nd to the very progressive and simply too well handicapped Miss Bunter. Ryedale Dancer travelled nicely in rear but had a bit to do from behind turning for home for that reason. She was switched to the inside then where she finished like a train to land the second spot. That was over 5f but she's probably better over a bit further so it should be in her favour to race over 6f here tomorrow. She's only 2lb above her last winning mark but I felt this recent performance was a few pounds better than the mark she's left on at the moment. The form of that race works very well out with the winner and the 3rd placed horse all followed up with a success. Overall it was a much stronger race than the race she's contesting in tomorrow. Only slight concern is the wide draw but with only eleven runners in the field the second widest draw doesn't has to be a too big factor probably and therefore I'm pretty confident in a big run of Ryedale Dancer.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread I'm slightly disappointed about Ryedale Dancer's performance, she finished in fourth ran a decent enough race but no excuses, she had every chance and just didn't find enough today. 13.25 Lingfield: My Own Way Home @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win Very good effort here at Lingfield last week I think as she travelled well turning for home but found herself short of room from 2f out there as she was sort of in a sandwich between two other horses. She really had to fight for a gap and was brave to took the slightest of space. She finished very strongly eventually when finally some space opened up to land the 2nd place. She's never won on the All-Weather yet but don't think the surface is a problem and on the evidence of her turf form she'd be well handicapped as she's on her last winning mark. This race here is a better one no doubt, but she can race of a feather weight and should relish the expected true pace thanks to Waabel who is another one I really like here but I feel he could set it up perfectly for My Own Way Home.

[egg]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Been watching your thread mate and noticed that a lot of your selections match my own. Always nice to see another angle into the race too. I find seeing the race with my own eyes rather than reading form highlights more eyecatchers. Keep up the good work.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Thanks for the kind words Egg. Can I assume you are using a similar approach as I do in terms of eye-catchers? Have to say I think just reading the form and using the old lengths/pounds metrics for assessing a horses chance is not enough anymore. Particularly in the low grade stuff. Things that you see with your own eyes are not necessarily factored in the form book and race comments. Usually I compare my own race observations with the official race comments for the horses and I'm often surprised to see that these comments more often than not are not containing important information like a horse was outpaced in certain situation, or was wandering in the closing stages or was just a clear run denied and that sort of stuff. But isn't that vital information for assessing a run of a horse in a certain race properly? I think you only get and see certain things only if you watch the race and sometimes even only if you watch certain parts of a race several times. I believe in doing so you gain an edge over people who are not doing so. And I think this is most useful in the low grade racing where media isn't observing every little piece as happening in the top class racing...

[egg]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Yes Rob I do use a similar approach and particularly keep an eye on unexposed horses from shrewd yards to see if they're being lined up for a touch ( Lager Time, Ashamaly and Khawatim being a few recently). I also look for closers off slow paced races and horses that have kept on well after racing prominently in true run races. As regards the lengths/pounds, I do calculate when horses are closely matched etc but a bad draw or an inferior jockey can negate any advantage at the weights. I do like to find races that I believe to be strong in form and closely follow horses from them, the class 4 and above A/W races tend to be best.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 13.30 Wolverhampton: Spirit Of Gondree @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Spirit Of Gondree was travelling much the best turning for home here at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago but experienced an absolute nightmare in the closing stages as he simply no room to go. His jockey tried desperately to find a gap and almost manoeuvred the horse like a bulldozer trough the field from 2f out. Finally half a furlong out he was in the clear and in a matter of strides he finished like a train to take easily the 3rd place just hands and heels ridden. There is no doubt that he was the best horse in the race which goes along with the fact that he is now very well handicapped again being allowed to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. The race tomorrow is a big field and he has a wide draw to overcome again but there is no doubt that Spirit Of Gondree is in fantastic shape and is a way too big price in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

13.30 Wolverhampton: Spirit Of Gondree @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Spirit Of Gondree was travelling much the best turning for home here at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago but experienced an absolute nightmare in the closing stages as he simply no room to go. His jockey tried desperately to find a gap and almost manoeuvred the horse like a bulldozer trough the field from 2f out. Finally half a furlong out he was in the clear and in a matter of strides he finished like a train to take easily the 3rd place just hands and heels ridden. There is no doubt that he was the best horse in the race which goes along with the fact that he is now very well handicapped again being allowed to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. The race tomorrow is a big field and he has a wide draw to overcome again but there is no doubt that Spirit Of Gondree is in fantastic shape and is a way too big price in my mind.

Nice won, won well! Travelled in rear and looked again to have some in-running trouble but fortunately a small gap opened on the inside and he went through to win a bit cosily.