robertob's eye-catcher thread

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 19.00 Wolverhampton: Oratorios Joy @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Oratorios Joy was just denied to win last time out by a completely unexposed horse that was way ahead of the mark. But that aside, she finished a strong second. She travelled strongly in midfield and made an impressive move on the widest outside from 3f out. She was almost on bridle until approaching the final furlong, that well she was travelling, but couldn't match the burst of speed of the eventual winner. Still a big performance. She is higher than her last winning mark, but she had only two starts over 12f so far and this last strong performance to her name over this trip, so she could be able to win such a race of her current mark-

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.10 Lingfield: Moonday Sun @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win Moonday Sun gave a big impression last weekend in a similar race when he overcame the widest draw to be right up with the pace soon after the start, which cost a bit of energy to get this position. He travelled well enough throughout the race and tried to kick on turning for home, he took up the lead around half a furlong out for the first time and fought hard back coming under pressure from a bunch of horses, he couldn't match the burst of speed of the eventual winner though. They surely went a good clip in the race however and it was a really nice performance to finish 2nd. He step up to 10f tomorrow which should suit on pedigree and with a better draw he should get a nice position close to the pace early on and have every chance to run a big race, despite a rise of 2lb in the mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Novabridge was a non-runner, Oratorios Joy finished disappointingly... 15.45 Lingfield: Noble Deed @ 12/1 William Hill - 1pt win Another one from my list for today, after long thinking I feel I want to be small on Noble Deed despite the step up in class. Usually he is best when he is ridden close to the pace and I expect this to be happen from his good draw today. Then he must have every chance to go close after he showed allot in his last run over CD when he had things pretty much against him. He had a good draw but got hampered soon after the start and lost position, so that he was forced to settle in rear. In fact he turned for home last and had to go widest around in order to get a clear run. He finished the like a train, staying on the best from all the horses coming from off the pace despite having the worst position. Form works out not badly already with the winner following up with a close 2nd and 4th winning well. Noble Deed was really progressive in 2013 and while he hasn't won on the All-Weather yet I feel there could be still more to come off his current mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Moonday Sun ran a big race, however could only manage to finish 3rd in the end. Noble Deed was rather disappointing. 16.45 Lingfield: Cathedral @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win Cathedral seems a very interesting runner for a new yard tomorrow due to a couple of reasons: First of all I thought he run quite well in his most recent start of a new career lowest mark. He missed slightly the break, was than extremely keen and pulling hard for quite a while until settling in midfield. He travelled then like an absolute dream, on the bridle until 2f out but I felt his jockey asked too late for an effort since Cathedral certainly lacks a "push button acceleration" and hit a flat spot when everyone one else was pretty much getting first run on him. Eventually he got asked for full effort inside the final furlong and he finished the race fine enough, without being too impressive though. But taking everything into account I think it was a decent enough performance. What's interesting tomorrow in the Apprentice race: He gets another pound off the mark and has an extremely talented 3lb claimer in the saddle who is also absolutely flying at the moment. So effectively Cathedral can race off a four pounds lower mark than the last time and that must give him a tremendous chance to win this race. Not to forget that he is still generally lightly raced for a five year old and didn't look entirely talent free as a younger horse.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.35 Southwell: Argent Touch @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win Seems a more open race than it looks on paper. The favourite has to deal with a new surface and isn't sure to get it. For that reason I take her on. The rest of the field looks far from exciting, however I like Argent Touch, despite the fact that he is 3lb out of the Handicap. I felt though that he clearly run up to this mark on his most recent start over course and distance, since he got not an easy run the last time due to shifting horses, for that reason he had to switch wider and wider and got shuffled back early on, which made it difficult to find his rhythm, which in these 5f races at Southwell is crucial though. Yet he travelled strongly for a long time but tired inside the final furlong and didn't have a chance with the eventual winner, who subsequently run another fine race off an amended mark. So I think it's fair to say Argent Touch run definitely to his current mark and probably a bit more due to the interferences he encountered in this last race. He had only two starts and Southwell and he might be able to improve further on this surface which he clearly thrives on. One has just to see the way he travelled on his first ever start here, when he won a handicap, a poor one off a low mark in all fairness, but he was extremely keen for most parts of the races yet on the bridle approaching the final furlong marker. He clearly is a horse made for this surface, looks big and strong with some scope for improvement in my mind. So he has a chance to go really close here today, even more so with the useful 7lb claim of his apprentice rider.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Painfully close today. Think it was a great bet, probably the best one the whole year I feel. Just not quite successful. Argent Touch beaten on the line. 17.25 Kempton: Novabridge @ 12/1 Paddy power - 3pts Novabridge appeared to be extremely unlucky in his most recent start at Lingfield. He got hampered right after the start, had to settle in rear as a consequence and got then slightly hampered coming around the home turn again, the jockey had to take a pull. The nightmare didn't end here as Novabridge didn't get a clear run approaching the home straight, and when finally a gap opened over 1f out he finished nicely without getting asked for everything. With a clear run he would have gone very close no doubt, and as he gets another pound off the mark he looks to be weighted to win, down to his last AW winning mark too. 18.55 Kempton: Newtown Cross @ 6/1 Paddy Power - 3pts win Newtown Cross won over course and distance three weeks ago despite having everything against himself. It was a slow run race, he travelled well off the pace and meat severe in-running trouble in the closing stages. Yet he won quite comfortably in the end. That was his first start since October, his first start over this long trip and his first All-Weather start, plus he is still rather lightly raced. So there should be much more to come from him and a rise of 3lb in the mark looks lenient actually. In fact this looks even a weaker race than the last one. So there is really no reason why he shouldn't go close once again.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Novabridge was unlucky yesterday. Went off a 20/1 chance, awkward start from the wide draw, had to settle in rear which is always adisadvantage over the sharp 5f trip at Kempton, and then had an awful lot to do approaching the home straight, but came through the whole field finishing extremely strong in 2nd. Newtown Cross much in contract was a big disappointment. 20.30 Wolverhampton: Appease @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win I do really fancy the favourite Appease but also the second favourite Excellent Puck. The latter ones last two performance definitely caught my eye but he probably run only to the current mark and might not be a big deal ahead. Could be a different story with Appease. he ran a huge race on his first start since September over course and distance eleven days ago. He travelled strongly, while not in the best position when the eventual winner who had the run of the race kicked on from the front and got a break which made the difference in the end. Appease made ground turning slightly wider than ideal for home and looked extremely strong from 2f out, motoring home. He might got a bit tired inside the final furlong, and lost narrowly out on 2nd place but still was less than a lengths beaten by the winner. First and second were 84 & 85 rated animals at that time, so it's fair to say he run to a mark pretty close to that. So it's a big chance given by the handicapper to be able to race off the same 77 mark tomorrow, even more so with natural improvement expected on only his fifth start. Tom Queally is in the saddle again, he has a fine record with John Butter, so that's another plus for Appease's chance.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Appease was a huge disappointment. Was backed like mad before the off but didn't warrant the confidence as he never really travelled too well and was early off the bridle. Hat do turn widest of all too and got a little bump there as well. Wouldn't give up on him. He's better than that. 16.00 Wolverhampton: All The Winds @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win Down to a really handy mark, 3lb below the last winning one and really caught my eye a fortnight ago over course and distance. He trailed a small field while they were absolutely crawling and he was simply to far off the slow pace when it increased. Yet he travelled like a dream on the bridle approaching the home straight and finished a good second but the eventual winner and front-runner was not to catch. Small field it is today again and pace not guaranteed but if his rider is a bit more ware of this threat he'll have him closer to the pace when it matters and then he must be in with a big shout of the current mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.10 Lingfield: Living The Life @ 7/2 William Hill - 4pts win Impressive last time out over course and distance when he attempted to make all. He really upped the pace from 4f out having the whole on the stretch and he kicked nicely way turning for home with a big lead in hand. One furlong out he looked the clear winner but he tired badly in the closing stages having to pay tribute to the strong pace he set before. He got caught close to the line and finished 2nd in the end. He can race off the same mark tomorrow and with a more sensible ride he should have every to chance to win this. He seems to be the only one who really wants to go from the front in this race and an easy lead at Lingfield is always an advantage.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

16.10 Lingfield: Living The Life @ 7/2 William Hill - 4pts win Impressive last time out over course and distance when he attempted to make all. He really upped the pace from 4f out having the whole on the stretch and he kicked nicely way turning for home with a big lead in hand. One furlong out he looked the clear winner but he tired badly in the closing stages having to pay tribute to the strong pace he set before. He got caught close to the line and finished 2nd in the end. He can race off the same mark tomorrow and with a more sensible ride he should have every to chance to win this. He seems to be the only one who really wants to go from the front in this race and an easy lead at Lingfield is always an advantage.

WON! But to say it was a close finish doesn't come even close to what it really was. I haven't seen any difference on the photo, for me it looked a dead-heat. But I won't complain. Much the difference. Finally a winner again!

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.20 Lingfield: Hillbilly Boy @ 7/1 VC - 2pts win I was very impressed with his latest start at Wolverhampton when attempted to make all, setting a really quick pace. Soon after the start he put some lengths between himself and the field and travelled still strongly turning for home. Two in the betting more fancied rivals stayed on from behind in the closing stages though and caught him 1f out. Yet even then he rallied and was even able to defend the second place. He goes only one pound up for this effort and the more experienced Andrea Atzeni gets the leg up tomorrow, which can be only a positive. It seems like there aren't too many others in this race that would like to make the running so a soft lead is likely for Hillbilly Boy. That is usually an advantage around Lingfield, a track he performs well on. So plenty to like the chance of Hillbilly Boy.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread YES Winner! Almost worked out exactly as hoped. Not much pace on early on, chance for HB to cross over and race in prominent position. Kicked on 2f out and held on to win nicely. Got him on Betfair for almost 9/1 last night, which makes things even sweater!

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Stats Update: One month ago since the last update. February was a decent month, two winners from eleven bets, and a couple of horses that hit the cross-bar. So overall I'm happy, and feel the way I adjusted the process of finding eye-catchers and selections worked quite well. Obvisouly I put more emphasis on front-runners/prominent ridden horses, which haven't done in such a extreme way before. The profit is not as big as I would have hoped though, which on reflection, is down to poor staking. But still on the upward curve again which is always nice. Staked: 554pts Returned: 612.32pts Profit/Loss: +58.32pts ROI: +10.53% Bets: 229 Wins: 30 S/R: 13.10%

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 17.10 Southwell: Solarmaite @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win Solarmaite ran a cracking race here at Southwell last time out, back then over 7f. She led the field and set a quick pace, rather a good 6f pace in fact and had the field early on on the stretch. She travelled strongly and turned for home as the clear leader and surprisingly she didn't really weakened until very late, actually half a furlong out, when got finally caught. But she finished a clear second in front of the rest of the field. She drops in trip tomorrow back to 6f, which should very much suit. Her only win so far came over course and distance, of a 1lb higher mark than the current one. I think she ran better than 57 lto and therefore I think she has every chance to win this race. There doesn't seem too much pace on, I suspect if she wants to get the lead she'll get it.

[Aidymac]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Great going mate :nana

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Cheers mate!

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 20.25 Kempton: Jewelled @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win Jewelled stepped up quite a bit in trip last time out at Lingfield when she tried 12f for the first time. She didn't seem to have any problem with the new distance though, but as a former 10f Brighton winner she was entitled to do so. She ran a big race that day, settling in midfield, travelling much the strongest but when she tried to make headway from 3f out to get into a good position turning for home, she got hampered and a clear run denied. This incident pretty much at the entrance of the final bend cost her dearly in the end. Approaching the home straight she had to fight for position and close the final furlong marker she finally got out and room and was also able to straighten up quickly enough in order to charge home and chase the leaders. She came close and finished extremely strongly, but it wasn't enough to catch the winner. The incident around 2f out cost her the win in my mind. Still a huge performance and she clearly demonstrated that of her current low mark she is more than capable of winning. She drops slightly in trip tomorrow, back to 11f, which shouldn't be an issue. The field is smaller, which should ensure a clear run in theory and I feel she has a couple of pounds in hand, also runs well on the All-Weather usually. She must have an outstanding chance of winning tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Nice run by Jewelled but it wasn't quite enough in the end... 17.30 Wolverhampton: Desert Strike @ 9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win Desert Strike seems poised to win in my mind. Two of his last three performances where absolutely cracking in my mind. Most recently at Lingfield he had a wide draw, the others went off quick and he had to settle further off the pace than he would like. He was travelling extremely strongly in midfield then, but didn't get a run when it mattered. So he approached the home straight hard on the bridle, still no room to go, eventually approaching the final furlong marker he could find space to start a challenge, but this ended fairly soon after around half a furlong out when he was again short of room, he quickened again in a matter of strides close to the line. I think a horse of this rather low class wouldn't be able to quicken twice almost instantaneously over a sprinting trip if not in good form. His penultimate start was rather disappointing for whatever reason, but before that at Kempton he was extremely impressive again, when he had to settle in rear first but tried to make some ground approaching the final bend, but got there badly hampered, jockey had to take a hard pull, and Desert Strike lost completely his rhyhm and stride, but he found it back and stayed on strongly in the closing stages. He's now down to his last winning mark of 69 - hist latest success came at Lingfield in January - and his record at Wolverhampton is decent enough, he won here over course and distance a couple of times in the past. A better draw and not too much obvious pace should help him to get a position in front of the field or at least close to the pace, which is a huge advantage at Wolverhampton at the moment.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

Nice run by Jewelled but it wasn't quite enough in the end... 17.30 Wolverhampton: Desert Strike @ 9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win Desert Strike seems poised to win in my mind. Two of his last three performances where absolutely cracking in my mind. Most recently at Lingfield he had a wide draw, the others went off quick and he had to settle further off the pace than he would like. He was travelling extremely strongly in midfield then, but didn't get a run when it mattered. So he approached the home straight hard on the bridle, still no room to go, eventually approaching the final furlong marker he could find space to start a challenge, but this ended fairly soon after around half a furlong out when he was again short of room, he quickened again in a matter of strides close to the line. I think a horse of this rather low class wouldn't be able to quicken twice almost instantaneously over a sprinting trip if not in good form. His penultimate start was rather disappointing for whatever reason, but before that at Kempton he was extremely impressive again, when he had to settle in rear first but tried to make some ground approaching the final bend, but got there badly hampered, jockey had to take a hard pull, and Desert Strike lost completely his rhyhm and stride, but he found it back and stayed on strongly in the closing stages. He's now down to his last winning mark of 69 - hist latest success came at Lingfield in January - and his record at Wolverhampton is decent enough, he won here over course and distance a couple of times in the past. A better draw and not too much obvious pace should help him to get a position in front of the field or at least close to the pace, which is a huge advantage at Wolverhampton at the moment.

Panned out perfectly. Made all from the front and won nicely in the end!

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 18.15 Wolverhampton: Outbid @ 9/2 VC - 3pts win Outbid ran a huge race at Lingfield last time out, considering that she had everything against herself. She had a wide draw to overcome, was forced to race on the outside and as a result had to turn widest which cost ground and an awful lot of energy. Yet she finished the race in impressive style in a way of a horse ahead of the current mark. she usually is ridden closer to the pace, and certainly is an advantage at Wolverhampton. so her good draw today will be a big plus. If she can transform her polytack form to Wolverhampton, a course she didn't do well in the past, she is in with a big shout in this poor race.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Nice one! Outbid easy with the perfect race from the perfect draw! Two in a row now and 4 winners from the last six bets now. Funny old games sometimes, have to say it again and again!

[kev2oo9]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Well played nice win :) Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Cheers mate! It definitely pays-off to go with the horses that are handy ridden around Wolverhampton, where horses from off the pace are seemingly without any chance at all right now. It's a huge track bias, very much down to the brutal kick back I think. If you go from the front or at least close to the pace you have a much higher chance to win. Lingfield as always favours prominent horses too, due to the short run-in, but is in contrast still much fairer.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Staked: 568pts Returned: 650.82pts Profit/Loss: +82.82pts ROI: +14.58% Bets: 233 Wins: 32 S/R: 13.73% ---------------------------------------- 15.20 Kempton: Orpen'arry @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Very encouraging return to the racetrack for Orpen'arry three weeks ago at Lingfield. He was off the track for more than a year, changed yards and came down a long way in the mark, in fact was racing of a career lowest mark that day. He made all from the front while travelling very well and was eventually only beaten by a strong winner who came from well off the pace, while Orpen'arry found more when headed and severely under pressure to secure 2nd place in the end. He's two pounds up for this, but he could be still well in, as he steps up to 12f for the first time. Not so much on pedigree suggests he is particularly likely to get the trip, but the way he rallied last time was impressive. Also on paper there isn't an awful lot of pace in this race, so he might be even able to get a soft lead. Only real concern for me is the bounce factor. But I take the risk, as I feel his price is too big.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Orpen'arry ran a big race yesterday, finished 2nd but couldn't quite beat a strong winner. 20.40 Kempton: Appease @ 9/2 PP - 3pts win Couple of interesting performances from Appease still generally lightly raced 5 year old gelding. He surly wasn't seen to best effect in his most recent start at Wolverhampton when he didn't really travell all too well and also wasn't in the best position. He was forced to turn extremely wide and got bumped coming around the final bend, while also coming from off the pace, which altogether is less than ideal at Wolverhampton. He was much better on his start before, also at Wolverhampton, but the first one since September. Appease travelled strongly throughout the race, but was not in the best position when the eventual winner - who had the run of the race and got first run on the field - kicked on from the front and got a break which made the difference in the end. Appease made ground turning slightly wider than ideal for home and looked extremely strong from 2f out, motoring home. He might got a bit tired inside the final furlong, and lost narrowly out on 2nd place but still was less than a lengths beaten by the winner. He was with the Hannon yard until last year, and back then he broke his maiden tag on the second time of asking at Kempton over 1m in really nice style, producing a lovely turn of foot. So dropping down in trip to 1m won't be an issue for him tomorrow and being back at Kempton neither. More so it probably will help him. Think he's a fair bit better than his current mark and while the draw is less than ideal, he should be hard to beat tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

Orpen'arry ran a big race yesterday, finished 2nd but couldn't quite beat a strong winner. 20.40 Kempton: Appease @ 9/2 PP - 3pts win Couple of interesting performances from Appease still generally lightly raced 5 year old gelding. He surly wasn't seen to best effect in his most recent start at Wolverhampton when he didn't really travell all too well and also wasn't in the best position. He was forced to turn extremely wide and got bumped coming around the final bend, while also coming from off the pace, which altogether is less than ideal at Wolverhampton. He was much better on his start before, also at Wolverhampton, but the first one since September. Appease travelled strongly throughout the race, but was not in the best position when the eventual winner - who had the run of the race and got first run on the field - kicked on from the front and got a break which made the difference in the end. Appease made ground turning slightly wider than ideal for home and looked extremely strong from 2f out, motoring home. He might got a bit tired inside the final furlong, and lost narrowly out on 2nd place but still was less than a lengths beaten by the winner. He was with the Hannon yard until last year, and back then he broke his maiden tag on the second time of asking at Kempton over 1m in really nice style, producing a lovely turn of foot. So dropping down in trip to 1m won't be an issue for him tomorrow and being back at Kempton neither. More so it probably will help him. Think he's a fair bit better than his current mark and while the draw is less than ideal, he should be hard to beat tomorrow.

Only 2nd. Up with the pace early on, looked one paced pretty much from 3f out then and looked beaten two furlong out but stayed on to finish a good 2nd in the end. Probably bit further wouldn't do any harm. Stayed 10f at Bath quite well last year. But no excuses today. Run as well as expected, just wasn't quite good enough to win, as the eventual winner won pretty easily in the end anyway.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 18.35 Wolverhampton: Douneedahand @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Douneedahand ran a very fine race at Kempton couple of weeks ago. She was up with the pace early on, pulled hard, had to be slightly niggled soon after, but travelled like dream for the rest of the race then, looking like the winner 1f out. She got a bit tired in the closing stages and finished only 4th but overall this was a strong performance as the winner is a very consistent 67 rated animal and she wasn't far off him. Interesting to see her now at Wolverhampton. At her only start here, she finished a head beaten as a two year. I feel she is down to a mark she can win from and with a very decent 5 pound claimer booked for the ride, she must have every chance to go close. The wide draw is less than ideal of course but I feel she has enough speed to overcome this and get a good position close to the pace, which would give her every chance to win this then.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Another 2nd today, even though my selection had absolutely no chance with the eventual winner. 15.50 Lingfield: Anaconda @ 54/1 Betfair - 1pt win Have this five year old gelding down on my list since his fine 3rd in a Listed race over course and distance back in February. Thought he ran a big race that day. He attempted to make all that day and set a rattling pace (pretty quick time compared to the average), yet he travelled strongly until turning for home and just got bit tired in the closing stages. Still a fine performance considering that was his first start since November. He was only beaten by a horse staying on from well off the pace and the eventual winner, Grandeur, who is favourite to land the Winter Derby tomorrow too. Grandeur is way too short tomorrow though and has a tough draw to overcome. Anaconda has a wide draw too but probably should be able with his gate speed to overcome it and to feature at least in a prominent position, which should give him any chance in the closing stages. I'm not quite convinced yet if he truly stays 10f, but his general record at Lingfield is impressive, his most recent performance was eye-catching and for that reason he is a way too big price.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 16.55 Lingfield: Appease @ 4/1 William Hill - 3pts win I give Appease another chance. backed him the last two times and think he's is poised to win now upped in trip. He was eye-catching on his seasonal debut at Wolverhampton back in February, ran slightly below par subsequently at the same venue, but showed a big performance at Kempton most recently, when dropped to 1m. He overcame his wide draw easily and was soon after the start right up with a cracking pace. They clearly set quick fractions. Entering the home straight Appease seemed to be flat footed and outpaced, he lost position and couldn't match the speed of the eventual winner, but he stayed on strongly to finish 2nd in the end. This run indicates he probably need further to be seen to best effect, and he has one good performance over 10f to his name already, when he finished a strong staying 2nd at Bath. So I feel of his current mark over this kind of trip, he has every chance to win another race finally.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Another 2nd place today. Appease tried to make all but had no chance to match the pace of the eventual winner. 16.05 Lingfield: Clear Praise @ 16/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Thought Clear Praise ran a really good race in a higher grade at Kempton last time out. He attempted to make all and set a really quick pace. He had the field nicely on the stretch turning for home but didn't get a chance to get in a little breather before being ask for everything. He got a break on the field soon after approaching the home straight but had to pay tribute to all the energy burnt before, when fading badly in the closing stages. Yet he wasn't far beaten in the end. The handicapper drops him one pound for this, which means he is now 1lb below his last All-Weather winning mark. He has a good draw tomorrow, which will ensure he'll be up with the pace, which suits him best. I'm sure he won't get the lead as the favourite from pole position will surly do everything to have his had in front, and there are some other horses that want to be up with the pace. So from that perspective, there might be a bit too much competition for a prominent position, and it might be the case that he has to do allot to maintain a position close to the pace. On the other hand he has the good draw, so might not be required to burn to much energy early on, in contrast to some rivals. After all he's certainly a very big price and too big in my mind.