robertob's eye-catcher thread

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 14.30 Ascot: Dick Whittington @ 5/2 >William Hill - 4pts win I do really like this O'Brien horse as he impressed in two of his three career starts immensely and there is plenty of improvement to come from this lightly raced Rip Van Winkle son. On debut he was incredibly unlucky. He took a strong hold, yet travelled best of all in rear o the small field. He got short of room from 2 out, and was hampered when trying to squeeze through a gap 1 out, yet he finished strongly when finally in the clear. That day he finished a very close 2nd behind Capella Sansevero, who had the run of the race, and won subsequently a Listed race as well as finished strong 2nd in the Coventry Stakes earlier this week. He was a massive disappointment on his subsequent start at the Curragh when he finished only 2nd long odds-on. But he redeemed himself with a big performance at Naas last week when he appeared still to be green, he seemed to stumble around 2 out but made impressive headway and produced a lovely turn of foot to win easily in the end, despite hanging quite badly towards the rail in the closing stages. I believe this horse is more talented than Capella Sansevero and the step up to 7 should very much suit tomorrow. Only question is if he can handle the fast ground, as he never raced on quicker than good, but I don't see too many reasons why he shouldn't be as effective.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.45 Gowran Park: Six Of Hearts @ 10/1 VC - 2pts win The veteran comes down to a good mark and his latest run at Naas over 6f suggested he might be ready to win finally a race again. He was held up, appeared to be slightly outpaced, didn't get a proper run through then having to wait for gaps and finished eventually strongly in the final furlong. He is back over 7f today, which is probably his ideal trip. He has won over course and distance in the past and the fast ground will surly suit as his best form in the past came on ground where the word firm appeared in.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Six Of Hearts ran a big race on Sunday, almost got it on the line... almost. 18.55 Curragh: 2pt win Won Diamond @10/1 PP + 1pt win Breathe Easy @ 14/1 Coral Big and competitive handicap but I really like two horses. Won Diamond was a big eye-catcher lto at Naas over 7f on his seasonal reappearance. He didn't get a run on the inside for quite a while in the home straight and just got out late over 1f out, and had to quicken instantaniously. He found quickly his stride and finished the race very strongly in 3rd. Form works out well already. Won Diamond has only won a maiden to date but doesn't have too many miles on the clock, and showed a couple of nice performances last season of higher or similar mark than the current one. Ground and trip won't be an issue and he should have still room for improvement as his sire's offspring progresses often well with age. Only slight worry for me is tongue tied 1st time tomorrow, something I don't like to see as I feel horses hate it and it can be an indicator for breathing problems. But he ran so well earlier this month, it might simply lead to more improvement. Breathe Easy is a lightly raced four year old in excellent form. He won/dead heated a nice Handicap at the Curragh in May and followed up with a very strong performance at Leopardstown when he made all from the front, set a decent pace and seemed to go strongly still 2f out, he just tired late and finished 3rd in the end. Drop in trip to a mile might be a good thing after all, since he stays a bit further, something I like in a front-runner and which can be a vital advantage in the stiff and testing Curragh finish. More improvement is likely to come.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Very disappointing both horses. Breathe Easy seemed to be found out for speed and stayed on once badly outpaced, but Won Diamond's shocking run is unexplainable for me. 17.15 Newmarket: Urban Dance @ 4/1 PP - 4pts win Classy individual, lightly raced, and caught my eye on couple of occasions. Most notably lto at Newmarket over 12f when he travelled extremely strongly until the 2f marker, but faded badly soon after on his seasonal reappearance. No surprise for me, as he might not have been fully wound up and also doesn't appear to stay that far as on his two other starts over this trip he faded badly too. Most impressively also a Newmarket last year, when he travelled like the winner until almost the final furlong marker, but didn't find anything once off the bridle, which is very much unlike what Urban Dance showed over 10f before. He should definitely improve from the drop in trip, as on his debut he won at Newmarket nicely over this distance, after being extremely green throughout the whole race, while on handicap debut he found plenty once off the bridle in the closing stages.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 15.40 Salisbury: Among Angels @ 3/1 StanJames - 4pts win Among Angels won well a maiden on his 2nd start at Windsor and was thrown into deep water in the Windsor Castle where he ran an absolute cracker in my mind. He came from the rear, travelling on the far side well enough, and stayed on super strongly to win the race on his side, while it was a huge advantage to be with the pace on the stands side which was the reason why he finished only 9th overall. But this performance should easily be good enough to win a Listed race in the future, so today could be a good opportunity to prove future prospects. Step up in trip should suit, considering the way he stayed on.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 19.10 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m - Pretty interesting handicap for three year olds. Plenty of promising types in the race. The obvious one is Godolphin's Holiday Magic. Improved with every start, and off the mark with a fine front-running performance over course and distance a fortnight ago. Opening mark seems fair and more improvement to come. It has to be said, that he had pretty much the run of the race since he was in front. I kind of like Clive Brittain's Surety. Slightly exposed and not really close to win yet, but shaped with promise and with talented 5lb claimer on board, in with a chance. Kubeba on his handicap debut is not out of it either due to a fair mark, but needs to find improvement to turn the form around with Holiday Magic from his recent maiden. In the same race there was one hugely eye-catching performance though, which came from Luca Cumani's Frederic. He has a decent pedigree, is related to plenty of winners, and shaped with an awful lot of promise on his first All-Weather start. He was quite unlucky not to finish closer than the 1¼ down in 3rd in the end. He was stuck in traffic once the field approached the home turn and was badly bumped around 2f out. He got eventually into the clear and finished super strongly under a pretty light hands and heels ride. Frederic is bred to stay further and I'm sure he will need a step up to 10f rather sooner than later. But for now a mile should fine, considering that the opening mark off 73 looks very lenient. With a clear run, I do fancy him to turn the form around with Holiday Magic. Frederic @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread So, clean sweep here, after a brutal summer. All the lovely profit from the All-Weather season gone, 80+pts lost. Shocking, absolute shocking. I simply haven't been able to put in the time required when the flat season is on, as it is too much racing, and I have a full time job. That was frustrating and led to poor judgement and selections. It's easier in the winter, when there are only a handful of meetings every week. Also the strategy to rather watch out for a certain type of horses on the AW proved profitable. So I will get back to that and hope it will be another positive All-Weather season. Staked: 683pts Returned: 680.82pts Profit/Loss: -2.18pts Bets: 281 Wins: 35 S/R: 13.73%

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread New All-Weather season, new, fresh start. I hope I find the necessary time to put into this. Would like to not only put in my selection as always, but also give some background to interesting horses that I have identified throughout my research. On a rather regular basis I'll make my strongest findings available, even though this is by no means a complete list of all the horses on my tracker. The majority of horses will follow a rather similar pattern - they have been either prominent or right at the the front of race. I believe it is an advantage to be up with the pace on the All-Weather. Simply the way how synthetics work, in conjunction with the sharp tracks with short run-ins - it does favour prominent horses, and hold-up runners need usually a good deal of luck in my mind. Not saying it is impossible to win from off the pace, far from it. The new tapeta surface at Wolverhampton looks pretty fair in that sense, but my general perception is, that I rather want to be on a horse up with the pace, than well off the pace. Anyway, the list of horses below provides individuals that I feel have a good chance to win rather sooner than later. Steal The Scene, 2yo colt - Kempton 25th September, 6f Nursery: Lightly raced, fast improving colt. Won Windsor maiden in tacking style and was mightily impressive here at Kempton. He was caught up behind a wall of horses and had nowhere to go from 3f out. His jockey take a big pull and dropped him subsequently out to last, in order to switch from the inside rails to the widest outside. The colt found his stride very quickly again and thundered home strongly. Only a resonably talented horse is capable of doing such a move as smoothly as he did. He appears to be well handicapped and it is unlikely that the handicapper will put him up for this. Wentworth Falls, 2yo gelding - Wolverhampton 11th September, 7f Maiden: Seems a tricky customer but has talent. Jumped quickly and led field, setting a quick pace. A strong galloper he is, he had the whole field off the bridle turning for home with a healthy advantage. When things seemed settled, his jockey gave him an additional crack with the whip to keep him focused entering the final furlong. Suddenly the gelding started to hang towards the rail badly, probably running away from the whip which cost vital momentum and a staying on rival fought him down eventually. He'll go handicapping next probably, and depending on the opening mark, could be underestimated. He is still green but will learn and as a Full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri, has certainly the right pedigree. Al, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Maiden: Interesting debut run for this Haling son. He got hampered right after the start but settled okay soon after towards the end of the field. He seemed to be slightly outpaced coming around the home bend and needed a bit encouraging by the jockey on board to keep on travelling, but in the it wasn't more than a light hands and heels ride and Al stayed on well to finish a fine 3rd over a trip which should be well short of what she requires. The winner of this race should go on to do well too, but for Al the future might lie in Handicaps. She has plenty of stamina left and right of her pedigree and will improve once stepping up in trip.I suspect that she will have two more maiden starts over 6f before she goes handicapping over a new trip and a potentially lenient mark. State Of Union, 2yo colt - Kempton 5th September, 6f Nursery: Nursery debut that night and had to overcome the widest draw in the race. He marched to the front straight from there, while looking extremely keen and he must have used allot of energy in those early parts of the race. Yet he travelled strongly and kicked clear in the home straight. He got a bit tired in the end but brought it home. He has the pedigree of progressive 2yo sprinter and his revised mark (78) is potentially still underestimating his class. If he can settle better and has a better draw the next time, he can win again. Yodelling, 2yo filly - Kempton 5th September, 7f Conditions Stakes: The filly couldn't have been more impressive on her racecourse debut. She appeared to be a bit green turning for home, but appeared back on the bridle and looming strongly from 2f out. In the end she won easily and emerges as a very exciting prospect. Extremely well bred, she has a good deal of stamina on her dam side, and her profile is pointing towards middle distance. She looks a very nice big, scopy filly and should improve as a 3yo. She has some potential and might even be a filly that we will see in Dubai later on. First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably. Bosstime, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 9f Handicap: Only his second start since coming over from Ireland. Sluggish start and had to use an awful lot of energy to get up to the front after the start. Travelled best of all their turning for home when making move from 3f out. Didn't quite see out the trip. Best performances came over 1m in Irland in competitive maidens and Handicaps when he finished runner-up three times. Expect him to drop further in the mark and down to a mile, should see him able to win a race. Blinkers would also be interesting. Maggie Pink, 5yo mare - Kempton 25th September, 1m Handicap: Prolific front-runner but had a tough task in her latest start. Back after a summer break as top weight in a hot handicap, of a career highest mark over a trip that stretches her stamina. It was never her day. She did well for that, set a quick pace and led the field by a couple of lengths approaching the home straight. As expected she tired badly in the closing stages. Once she gets a bit of leniency from the handicapper and drops doen to her optimum 7f, she'll be well able to win another race or even races as her last performances before the break clearly indicating that she is still improving. Steeldriver, 4yo gelding - Wolverhampton 27th September, 7f Handicap: This horse is going to win next time - if the handicapper isn't too hard on him. Reasons are obvious. After missing the break, he used loads of energy to go around whole field making up for the lost ground. While he was travelling always wide, he started big move from 4f out and turned for home as leader thanks to some impressive acceleration. He seemed to put the race to bed in a matter of strides and certainly looked the clear winner entering the final furlong. His jockey felt probably the same way and turned around one numerous occasions to see where his rivals are. He did this one time too often approaching the half furlong marker. Losing concentration on keeping the horses for a split second, allowed the gelding to drift towards the rail and through that losing momentum - which in turn cost the race as a rival cam thundering down from behind getting up on the line. Steeldriver was down to a career lowest mark and is clearly better than that, particularly over the 7f trip, which seems his optimum. Even if the handicapper puts him up two or three pounds, he should be well in.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 17.45 Kempton: First Rebellion @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win One of the horses highlighted in the list below. Drops another 2lb since his most recent impressive run, has a good draw for his front-running tactics and I can't see too much competition for the lead. Should be straightforward and Kempton's 5f track favours horses up with the speed. "First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably."

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

17.45 Kempton: First Rebellion @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win One of the horses highlighted in the list below. Drops another 2lb since his most recent impressive run, has a good draw for his front-running tactics and I can't see too much competition for the lead. Should be straightforward and Kempton's 5f track favours horses up with the speed. "First Rebellion, 5yo gelding - Wolverhampton 26th September, 6f Handicap: Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind, and he has an entry for 5f at Kempton later this week which I believe is an ideal scenario, as that CD prefers horses up with the pace considerably."

Nice to get things going with a winner! First Rebellion went off the 6/4 favourite and won pretty easily in the end. Good a good start, was in front and kicked on approaching the home straight. Second favourite gave chase but wasn't good enough and in the end it worked out exactly as I hoped. First Rebellion over 5f at Kempton finds perfect conditions. The additional drop in mark was just a bonus to be honest. Now, let's see if it's possible to keep it rolling.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 20.15 Kempton: My Mo @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Drops down to 6f after being piped on the line eight days ago. The trip wasn't an issue that day and won't be tomorrow. Whether six or seven furlongs, I think it doesn't make too much of a difference for this 2yo colt. He was pretty impressive in this latest run, incidentally his handicap debut. He didn't show anything in three maiden starts and was sent off a 50/1 no hoper. He had to overcome the widest draw in a 12 runner field and he did that nicely in fact. Obviously you need to use plenty of horse to make it from such a wide draw to the front before the bend in a big field, yet My Mo was travelling extremely well and kicked on from 2f out. He was put under pressure left and right but impressively pulled out more and more. Close to the line the eventual winner came on the wide outside to stay on and get the head in front on the line. I suspect that My Mo didn't see the horse coming and looked actually like doing enough to keep his head in front of the horses around him. He gets a massive chance to make amends, as he can race off the same mark again and he has a muck kinder draw this time. There are couple of unexposed horses in the field and that is always a worry, but it is proven fact for me that My Mo is a good deal better than a rating of 51. It also has to be noted that from a pedigree point of view he has it all going to be a decent 2yo sprinter over 6-7f.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread

20.15 Kempton: My Mo @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Drops down to 6f after being piped on the line eight days ago. The trip wasn't an issue that day and won't be tomorrow. Whether six or seven furlongs, I think it doesn't make too much of a difference for this 2yo colt. He was pretty impressive in this latest run, incidentally his handicap debut. He didn't show anything in three maiden starts and was sent off a 50/1 no hoper. He had to overcome the widest draw in a 12 runner field and he did that nicely in fact. Obviously you need to use plenty of horse to make it from such a wide draw to the front before the bend in a big field, yet My Mo was travelling extremely well and kicked on from 2f out. He was put under pressure left and right but impressively pulled out more and more. Close to the line the eventual winner came on the wide outside to stay on and get the head in front on the line. I suspect that My Mo didn't see the horse coming and looked actually like doing enough to keep his head in front of the horses around him. He gets a massive chance to make amends, as he can race off the same mark again and he has a muck kinder draw this time. There are couple of unexposed horses in the field and that is always a worry, but it is proven fact for me that My Mo is a good deal better than a rating of 51. It also has to be noted that from a pedigree point of view he has it all going to be a decent 2yo sprinter over 6-7f.

Beaten on the line, while had his head in front for most parts of the race. Bitter. Probably the better horse won though. And it seems I was wrong after all, My Mo did have less in hand as I thought. Otherwise he would have won with the perfect trip. No excused and hard feelings from my side.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 20.50 Wolverhampton: Bosstime @ 16/1 PP - 2pts win Big performance last time under top weight over trip that stretches his stamina here at Wolverhampton. He had a wide draw, and wasn't helped by a sluggish start. He made up the lost ground quickly though and was soon up with a good pace. Then he took over the lead from over 3f out and increased the pace, wile turing for home still going strongly. Eventually he didn't quite see out trip and hit the well known brick wall around the final furlong marker but still finished a creditable 4th. The winner of this went on to win his next subsequent start and another rival who finished a good deal beaten, though, went on to finished 3rd subsequently. So this for looks rock solid. Bosstime has some pretty useful maiden from Ireland on Dundalk's All-Weather from earlier this year, and now in the UK he is on a handy mark. He drops in trip now which seems ideal, together with cheekpieces fitted for the first time, he has an awful lot going for himself. Big run is on the cards. Only concern is the wide draw. But you can't have it all, and he certainly is overpriced. 21.20 Wolverhampton: Palace Princess @ 5/1 PP - 2pts win Still a maiden but clearly improved in last two starts. Eye-catching performance in the latest over course and distance. Settled in rear from a wide draw, while making gradually progress and travelling notably the best approaching the home straight. However she was stuck in traffic behind a wall of horses. She got out late and had to fight hard to get that space, but once out there, finished extremely well and giving the impression she is clearly on a good mark right now and well up to win a race. Concern is that she may well need a bit in-running luck with her hold-up racing style in this big field around tight Wolverhampton.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Rather disappointing those two selection from last week. Though Bosstime looked really dangerous entering the home straight but faded badly eventually. It becomes a habit for him to make a mockery of the start, and that surly doesn't help the cause. Palace Princess was beaten way too early and no excuses that such a poor performance. 15.00 Lingfield: Gold Waltz @ 13/2 VC - 2pts win Very competitive nursery. The first three in the market make all appeal and a couple from the bigger prices aren't out either. I feel the filly Acclamation filly Gold Waltz could outrun her price tag though. She won well over course and distance in August, and followed up with a strong performance in a decent Kempton Nursery when she didn't have things going her way. The eventual winner looked way better than his mark, and had the run of the race from the front, while Gold Waltz settled in the last third of the field and had a wall of horses in front approaching the home straight. She had to delay her challenge and made her way through the field, finally in the clear, she had to quicken instantly. She did all this very well and finished a strong 2nd under hands and heels eventually. This form looks very decent, with the winner one I fancy to win again, and the 3rd a subsequent winner already. Gold Waltz has a pedigree to do well as a juvenile and she could well be better than her current mark.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread 18.55 Kempton: Wentworth Falls @ 10/3 VC - 4pts win Big scopy gelding, though still a maiden after three starts, however showed loads of promise in all his starts. Really caught my eye in his latest run when he tried to make all from the front at Wolverhampton.. He was put under pressure from 3f out but was really game kicked on approaching home turn. He soon was clear and looked like the winner. However over 1f out he suddenly started to hang badly to his left and almost crashed into the rails. This cost an awful lot of momentum and he got eventually caught. He looks well capable to win a maiden though, and the step up to 1m should suit perfectly, being by Dansili as well the fact that he is a full brother to smart miler Strawberrydaiquiri. The wide draw is a bit of a natural worry today, but he should be able to overcome it with his gate speed and should have not too many excuses in the end.

[robertob]

Re: robertob's eye-catcher thread Breeders Cup Classic: Tonalist @ 13/2 >William Hill - 2pts win One international eye-catcher today: I feel Tonalist is quite overpriced at 13/2. Nicely improved all year long, landed the Belmonst Stakes and was utterly impressive in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when he won hands and heels despite hampered and short of room approaching the home straight. I suspect we will have some good pace on in the Classic tomorrow night, and that is what this horse really needs as he looks like a true stayer on US standards. He's one the go for a while already and that is my only slight concern. But a repeat of the JCGC performance and he is in with a huge chance in my mind.