Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

[wisey10]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Newcastle +1 (ah) @ 2.05 bet365 (3 points) Everton are rightly favourites and could well win this but the current price is bonkers. Toon at over evens on +1 Asian is crazy. They are being priced up like a bottom of the league side. They have got some key players out in defence which obviously weakens them significantly. But they still have a decent side out. I've seen plenty of worse teams than This Toon side come away from Goodison with a point. This is a good Everton side but they aren't a top 4 team yet. I can't stand Pardew but tactically he's very good and he will have this Toon side set up well for the match. They need to be beat by 2 goals or more for this bet to lose and they odds of that happening certainly aren't right at present.Its worth a smallish play at the price.

[danhardy]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Cheers Kiddo, but my hands are tied, I'm outside UK now and the only bookie I can use online is Ladbrokes which usually offers crap odds, or the offline bookies. I can only get 1.72 with ladbrks for btts, but if Newcastle is to score, I don't see Everton not scoring. @allthethings - you said you went for the draw, but if you did that, you don't like the price for both to score? I really don't see this ending in a 0-0 draw

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Cheers Kiddo, but my hands are tied, I'm outside UK now and the only bookie I can use online is Ladbrokes which usually offers crap odds, or the offline bookies. I can only get 1.72 with ladbrks for btts, but if Newcastle is to score, I don't see Everton not scoring. @allthethings - you said you went for the draw, but if you did that, you don't like the price for both to score? I really don't see this ending in a 0-0 draw

My book doesn't offer it, sadly.

[garyfinny]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Odds on Everton are just crackers now. Are people making too much of the fact that Pardew will be missing from the touchline? Either way he would still be able to set up his team and pass instructions on. Newcastle are missing a few players at the back but it's hardly as if they have had to draft in teenage rookies for their debut, which is what the odds are suggesting. At coming close to 1.5, I don't care, Everton have to be a big fat lay. At the very least I would envisage the banned coach to be a factor later in the game and not at the start of it.

[Pay Day]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Vurnon Anita to be shown a card? YES @ 3.75 with Betfair Not too much in terms of rationale to go on here however I see a young, enthusiastic (if the Chelsea game was anything to go by) player who is trying to impress in the DM role whilst first choice Chiek Tiote is still out. Everton mix physicality and nimbleness in midfield (Osman, Fellaini, Pienaar) and we could see Anita exposed. His tackling has already been questioned and if Everton's 3 in midfield overruns Newcastle then some desperate tackles from himself and Cabaye might come in :hope

[Kiddo112]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Vurnon Anita to be shown a card? YES @ 3.75 with Betfair Not too much in terms of rationale to go on here however I see a young, enthusiastic (if the Chelsea game was anything to go by) player who is trying to impress in the DM role whilst first choice Chiek Tiote is still out. Everton mix physicality and nimbleness in midfield (Osman, Fellaini, Pienaar) and we could see Anita exposed. His tackling has already been questioned and if Everton's 3 in midfield overruns Newcastle then some desperate tackles from himself and Cabaye might come in :hope

Good luck with this pay day. I thought the same as you, and had a decent bet on him to be booked in the Chelsea game, Have to admit I was very dissapointed - never really looked like over committing. Then looked at his stats for the Villa game and he didn't make a tackle.

[danhardy]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th I know Anita is young and with some temper, but 3 yellow in 2010/2011 and 3 yellow in 2011/2012, I don't see this happening today

[Kiddo112]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Yeah Dan I had looked at his Dutch stats before the Chelsea game. But in fairness it's a different style of play. Also there was heavy rain that evening, first game in EPL and all that. Also, I think I am right in saying Tiote only had 6 and 5 in his last seasons in Holland. They are the reasons I backed him that evening.

[Kiddo112]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th And there it is, ha ha. Well done Pay Day. I gave up on him too soon!!

[cpo]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th First bet up. Just need another goal or 2 in this half. Well done with Anita call :ok

[Pay Day]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

And there it is' date=' ha ha. Well done Pay Day. I gave up on him too soon!![/quote'] His only foul in the first half too! :beerThe ref kinda set a precedent with the early Neville booking. Though Anita should have been pulled up for barging Pienaar over in the centre circle. Interesting about his stats in prior games. He looks raw in the tackle, he let Hibbert trick him :lol

[H1]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th What a crazy game Everton - Newcastle! With such games you just have to love this league

[ThusPrider]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Everton deserved the win, but watching a league like this would you say its crazy to back them at 4/6 odds, even if Ba didn't cancel out Anichibe's late winner as it was a real sweat nevertheless.

[danhardy]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th HEHEHE, I so love PL, most teams play till last minute, even without any bets ON but there's a different feeling when you have even a small amount involved in a game I have more to come the next 2-3 days, arrrrrr :)

with such odds for a draw between the two(4.00)' date=' I much prefer to play low stakes on a draw that to play higher stakes on Everton even with the missing players on the Newcastle side, I just don't trust the Everton side yet, its not the first time they have an up-and-down start of the PL, the home game against United should not really count, its just a different story. I find it strange that Mustafa [img']http://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/happy.gif doesn't see this game as a BTTS, Newcastle sure has the strength to do so and for Everton is a must, I do think that Jelavic or the man behind him will find the net with the players Newcastle will have in defense. BTTS @ 1.72 draw @ 4.00

[fauxy100]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Crazy odds for Everton. They were as low as 1.18 on Betfair after 30 minutes which I layed off. Traded out later in the game - would have been a nervy last 5 if I hadn't!

[sambo1983]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Score draw for me. Newcastle pose a real threat going forward with Ba' date=' Cisse and Ben Arfa and with the classy Cabaye in midfield they will create chances tonight for sure. Everton have only conceded 1 goal in the past 7 home league games (vs Arsenal) but Newcastle are a dangerous team with pace in important areas. I'll be having a dabble on 2-2 which you can get at 20/1 on Betfair[/quote'] Good shout.

[HastGill1]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Glad I didn't bet anything on that one, would have been in pieces by the end..

[Jase82]

Good calls in here on the Anita booking, draw, and the 2-2 score line ! You have to feel sorry for any everton backer though as they had two clear goals disallowed and were far better. Their midfield were all over newcastle's. You have to be worried though that Everton can't surely maintain that level of energy for too long. I think they'll run out of steam over Christmas, and drift off in the latter part of the year.

[sambo1983]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Good calls in here on the Anita booking' date=' draw, and the 2-2 score line ! You have to feel sorry for any everton backer though as they had two clear goals disallowed and were far better. Their midfield were all over newcastle's. You have to be worried though that Everton can't surely maintain that level of energy for too long. I think they'll run out of steam over Christmas, and drift off in the latter part of the year.[/quote'] Yes, I was one of those unlucky Everton backers...sigh...oh well there's always the CL tomorrow to make amends.

[danhardy]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Mate, I could feel sorry for the Everton fans/supporters but not for those who backed Everton with money on them odds, any serious punter watching the market evolution on this game would have steered away from this game, or if they had a bet on it, they knew the risks :) so NO, I'm not feeling sorry does anyone feel sorry for me when I loose my money? NO, they call me stupid :\

[RafasBallBag]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Nice £200 win thanks to Demba. All gone on Real Madrid to beat City at 1.66 on Betfair, wins £132. £10 into £332 come 21:35pm tomorrow hopefully

[immortal--]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Score draw for me. Newcastle pose a real threat going forward with Ba' date=' Cisse and Ben Arfa and with the classy Cabaye in midfield they will create chances tonight for sure. Everton have only conceded 1 goal in the past 7 home league games (vs Arsenal) but Newcastle are a dangerous team with pace in important areas. I'll be having a dabble on 2-2 which you can get at 20/1 on Betfair[/quote'] Congrats! Great call!

[blackcrow]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Everton -1.5 @ 2.84 :eyes

8-17 (-6.59)

[pg_yid]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Newcastle +1 AH @ 1.95 (Bet365) 2.5/10 This price on Newcastle on the Asian Handicap looks far too big to me. I can only think Everton has become a public bet of sorts with it instinctively feeling as though they will win due to a few factors: Newcastle injuries (always overplayed like Jase says), Everton's good start to the season and perhaps a sensation that Newcastle overachieved last season, causing people to have already written off their chances of a top 5 or 6 finish this time round. Winning at gambling isn't really like that though and if you follow the collective "instinct" long-term you will lose. Personally I think this has opened up some value on the Newcastle side. The two sides are reasonably well matched and I would probably have priced Everton at around 1.9 fair odds. Yes they have started the season better than Newcastle but with only four games gone I don't think we can tell that much. +1AH leaves a lot of room as if Everton do win there is a high chance of it being by one goal only.

Last night's game was a good example of where you need to go with the value and not who you think will win. A simple yet important gambling principle. Well done all winners, some very good posts in this thread.

[garyfinny]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th To be honest - I am not sure it was value, even though I laid Everton. The way the match panned out I think the odds were justified. Everton were really good, Newcastle poor. Maybe there was insider dealing causing the odds to tumble, Newcastle were not even at the races in the first half and should have been out of the game.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

To be honest - I am not sure it was value' date=' even though I laid Everton. The way the match panned out I think the odds were justified. Everton were really good, Newcastle poor. Maybe there was insider dealing causing the odds to tumble, Newcastle were not even at the races in the first half and should have been out of the game.[/quote'] Yeh it's an interesting one in terms of evaluating the odds. Moyes put Pardew on the backfoot with his tactics early doors and ofcourse that depleted Newcastle defence looked shoddy all evening. To his credit Pardew made the correct changes at HT and with the likes of Cabaye, Ba and Cisse they always have a goal in them. Everton should have killed off the game but when the officiating goes against you in that way then it's going to be one of those games that's hard to win. In my view the odds became strange for some because it was a hard game for bookies to price given the circumstances. For me Newcastle +1 was NOT an automatic bet because of the injuries they had in defence. After watching the match I would say Newcastle would have lost that 60% of the time, by what goal margin is obviously more difficult to evaluate. That's my view anyway, quite a few will probably disagree. At the very beginning I said this game was a no bet and I'm glad I stuck by that as there were so many elements thrown into the melting pot for this contest.

[pg_yid]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

To be honest - I am not sure it was value' date=' even though I laid Everton. The way the match panned out I think the odds were justified. Everton were really good, Newcastle poor. Maybe there was insider dealing causing the odds to tumble, Newcastle were not even at the races in the first half and should have been out of the game.[/quote'] I think it was value, regardless of what went on during the game, simply because before the game they could be analysed as relatively equal teams, with Everton having the slight edge due to current form and Newcastle injuries. So 1.9 would have been fair odds if we take 2.1 as what the home team should be if both teams are exactly equal. IMO of course. Also, I don't think Newcastle were as poor as people have made out in this thread. They were poor first half but played well in the second half and could have won the game. What do you mean by insider dealing? Do you mean someone knew something that we didn't? If so, what?