Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Everton v Newcastle United (20:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.78 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[DickosBetting]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th I came unstuck with Everton last week I thought they were flying and didnt expect them to lose, however home form is great, and they have this new Dannish guy who is supposed to be good, I dont like the look of Newcastle this year, they seem slow and off the pace, and playing very square football I think Fellini and co will be hard to handle, my prediction here is definetly a home win, and at 2.00 that is not bad value,

[markmywords]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th When Gibson went off last week Neville just couldn't replace him. With Pienaar, Jelavic and Fellaini getting bullied off the ball. Hopefully Moyes will have had a word. I am hoping Heitinga will replace Gibson's protection role. A night game at Goodison can be a bear pit. And I think Everton should do the job.

[cornerjohn]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Odds for corners match bet at bet365: 1.40 Everton, 3.60 Newcastle Everton should get more corners, of course, but the odd for Newcastle is to high. Last season, the home team gets more corners, but in both seasons before (when Newcastle was in the premier), Newcastle won both away-games at the corner head-to-head. Newcastle also gets more corners at their first two season-games: at home vs. Aston, away vs. Chelsea. See: http://www.ligastats.com/view.php?ccode=eng&team=11 ... Tip: Newcastle @3.60

[AHughes]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Darron Gibson misses this one due to injury. He is such an important player for Everton and they are yet to lose a game with him in their starting line-up. This proves his worth and with him out for 5 weeks and doubts after their diabolical performance at West Brom last time out, I see a bit of value on Newcastle.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Darron Gibson misses this one due to injury. He is such an important player for Everton and they are yet to lose a game with him in their starting line-up. This proves his worth and with him out for 5 weeks and doubts after their diabolical performance at West Brom last time out' date=' I see a bit of value on Newcastle.[/quote'] Everton is underpriced to me as well. But Newcastle will miss their keeper Krul who is outstanding. Tiote is also out and captain Coloccini could also miss out here.

[Jase82]

Jesus Christ has anyone seen the state of these odds? You can get Newcastle @ 5.25 now, which is huge IMO. I don't see any reasoning for such a massive shift in odds, and I don't see why everton should be such huge favourites. I think it's a bit of an over reaction in the market to something. Newcastle seem to be taking over the Aston villa role nicely, to rival everton for that sixth place, so I feel they should only be as much as 3.65'ish. Maybe to take into account the fact everton are tough to beat anywhere Newcastle should be around 4. Newcastle + 0.5 @ 2.10 - BET365. That's enough for me. Newcastle @ 5.25 - Boylesports / 5.20 - Betfair. Everton have historically made hard work of sides when priced as favourites, so I challenge them to change that.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Jesus Christ has anyone seen the state of these odds? You can get Newcastle @ 5.25 now' date=' which is huge IMO. I don't see any reasoning for such a massive shift in odds,[/quote'] On the surface it does seem crazy but Newcastle will be without Krull, Coloccini, Simpson, R Taylor and Tiote. Those loses significantly weaken Newcastle defensively, even so I wouldn't touch Everton here. No bet for me.

[EpicAlex]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Newcastle + 0.5 @ 2.10 - BET365. That's enough for me. Newcastle @ 5.25 - Boylesports / 5.20 - Betfair. Everton have historically made hard work of sides when priced as favourites, so I challenge them to change that.

Newcastle +0,5 is 2.20 at Sbobet but I think you can still get even better if you wait longer, at least 2.25 or probably 2.3, during last hour before game starts you will find the best odds for your bet if you ask me.

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Jesus Christ has anyone seen the state of these odds? You can get Newcastle @ 5.25 now, which is huge IMO. I don't see any reasoning for such a massive shift in odds, and I don't see why everton should be such huge favourites. I think it's a bit of an over reaction in the market to something. Newcastle seem to be taking over the Aston villa role nicely, to rival everton for that sixth place, so I feel they should only be as much as 3.65'ish. Maybe to take into account the fact everton are tough to beat anywhere Newcastle should be around 4. Newcastle + 0.5 @ 2.10 - BET365. That's enough for me. Newcastle @ 5.25 - Boylesports / 5.20 - Betfair. Everton have historically made hard work of sides when priced as favourites, so I challenge them to change that.

As I think you are aware, I play all the big dogs in England, but for me, there's a great difference between 5.25 and, say, 4.85. The EPL dogs in the 4.0 to 4.99 range tend to bark, but those in the 5.0 to 5.99 haven't barked often enough to be profitable in the four years I've been keeping track. If the market gives Newcastle more respect tomorrow, so will I...if Newcastle take the field to anything over 5.0 I will sit this one out.

[kevshat]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th 4pts Everton to beat Newcastle 5/6 Coral Everton have to be the bet here with Newcastle’s multiple injury problems. They may also have half an eye on their Europa League game later in the week too. Everton always play well at Goodison Park and are a very tough side to beat. Newcastle aren’t just missing players they are missing their best keeper and best defender and Coloccini’s absence could be particularly key given that Fellaini will be a big threat for Everton. Newcastle pose a significant goal threat for sure but I think Everton can manage that and get their joy at the other end. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/everton-vs-newcastle-betting-everton-can-exploit-injury-ravaged-newcastle-to-move-up-to-third-in-the-table

[sasik]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th The price on Everton just dropped from 1.8 to 1.7 at William Hill.

[blackcrow]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Everton -1.5 @ 2.84 pinnacle A number of players for Newcastle are out which has seen the price on Everton drop quite a bit. They are without their regular keeper Krul, as well as defenders Coloccini, Taylor and Simpson, as his their defensive midfield Tiote. Like Everton to make the most of these missing players as they have some good players down the flanks in Peinaar and Naismith to deliver balls in for the predatory Jelavic or use the height of Fellaini. Though Newcastle still have some talent up front with Ba and Cisse, and Ben Arfa just in behind them, this Everton defence was pretty good in beating Man Utd 1-0 at home, while Newcastle lost their oly game thye have played on the road this season, losing 2-0 at Chelsea. Everton did beat Newcastle 3-1 on the last day of the season at Goodison Park, which prompted Pardew to comment that Everton were not on the same level as Newcastle. Expect Moyes to use this comment to fire up his own players to exact a similar result to last year. 8-16 (-5.59)

[Alessan]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th There is something very strange going on with the handicap market. Everton (EH-2) took a dive, quotas going down from 6.8 to 5.7. Is it a sign that there's more value on Everton (EH-1) @ 2.50 with Bet365 (it started around 2.75) ?

[RafasBallBag]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Score draw for me. Newcastle pose a real threat going forward with Ba, Cisse and Ben Arfa and with the classy Cabaye in midfield they will create chances tonight for sure. Everton have only conceded 1 goal in the past 7 home league games (vs Arsenal) but Newcastle are a dangerous team with pace in important areas. I'll be having a dabble on 2-2 which you can get at 20/1 on Betfair

[Jase82]

As I think you are aware' date=' I play all the big dogs in England, but for me, there's a great difference between 5.25 and, say, 4.85. The EPL dogs in the 4.0 to 4.99 range tend to bark, but those in the 5.0 to 5.99 haven't barked often enough to be profitable in the four years I've been keeping track. If the market gives Newcastle more respect tomorrow, so will I...if Newcastle take the field to anything over 5.0 I will sit this one out.[/quote'] I am, and I always look out for your thoughts as what you say has an impact on my own thoughts :) Newcastle are touching over 6 now, so I guess you won't touch it.... But I just can't believe the over reaction in the market because you know as well as I do that team news is often overplayed, and unless a side genuinely don't have any replacement players, they can still put out eleven footballers with two feet capable of playing. You wouldn't even see this sort of shift if united were missing vidic and Ferdinand (which I think is much more important to united, than the current missings are for Newcastle). Everton could always win of course, but as far as value goes I'd be nuts to turn away the prices on offer for Newcastle.

[AVFCLuke]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

I am, and I always look out for your thoughts as what you say has an impact on my own thoughts :) Newcastle are touching over 6 now, so I guess you won't touch it.... But I just can't believe the over reaction in the market because you know as well as I do that team news is often overplayed, and unless a side genuinely don't have any replacement players, they can still put out eleven footballers with two feet capable of playing. You wouldn't even see this sort of shift if united were missing vidic and Ferdinand (which I think is much more important to united, than the current missings are for Newcastle). Everton could always win of course, but as far as value goes I'd be nuts to turn away the prices on offer for Newcastle.

Bang on. I was really steering towards Everton but at 4/6 I wouldn't bother. Newcastle at 5/1 is crazy in my opinion. Even if it was small stakes which I think I will go with if no other markets appeal to me, it's well worth it. It's not like anyone could be surprised if they go to Goodison and win either, because they are more than capable. These odds are at William Hill and I'm still undecided on my selections but most probably will be looking at a Newcastle outright or DNB.

[AVFCLuke]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th 7/1 on Paddy Power!

[pg_yid]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Newcastle +1 AH @ 1.95 (Bet365) 2.5/10 This price on Newcastle on the Asian Handicap looks far too big to me. I can only think Everton has become a public bet of sorts with it instinctively feeling as though they will win due to a few factors: Newcastle injuries (always overplayed like Jase says), Everton's good start to the season and perhaps a sensation that Newcastle overachieved last season, causing people to have already written off their chances of a top 5 or 6 finish this time round. Winning at gambling isn't really like that though and if you follow the collective "instinct" long-term you will lose. Personally I think this has opened up some value on the Newcastle side. The two sides are reasonably well matched and I would probably have priced Everton at around 1.9 fair odds. Yes they have started the season better than Newcastle but with only four games gone I don't think we can tell that much. +1AH leaves a lot of room as if Everton do win there is a high chance of it being by one goal only.

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

As I think you are aware' date=' I play all the big dogs in England, but for me, there's a great difference between 5.25 and, say, 4.85. The EPL dogs in the 4.0 to 4.99 range tend to bark, but those in the 5.0 to 5.99 haven't barked often enough to be profitable in the four years I've been keeping track. If the market gives Newcastle more respect tomorrow, so will I...if Newcastle take the field to anything over 5.0 I will sit this one out.[/quote'] Yes, the public is all over Everton, now 6.2 at my book for Newcastle, so I am not getting involved.

[cpo]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Very tough game to call, especially with Everton slipping up against West Brom after starting the season so well. Newcastle haven't started the season that well and their last game produced what looks like a poor result at home against Villa. That being said Villa might just be finding their feet now, and it might not have been the worst result in the world. Both Everton and Newcastle are creating plenty of chances in their matches and Everton in particular have been getting going very quickly in their games and scoring early goals. Newcastle have plenty of injuries for tonights game which sways me towards Everton but the odds aren't great which leads me to look for some other angle in the match. I think Everton are strong at home and if you look at the history of games between these 2 teams, then barring the 2010/2011 season, the away team very rarely wins this fixture. I don't fancy Newcastle to win this match even though they have extremely good forward players in their ranks. Cabaye is apparently struggling with fatigue which could be a huge miss for Newcastle. I think Everton defensively are one of the most solid teams in the league and should be able to deal with threat of Newcastle tonight. Going forward Everton have plenty of options and a lot of creativity. I would expect them to create a lot of chances tonight against a Newcastle team missing a few first team defenders. In Jelevic they have someone who has settled quicker than expected into life in the Premier League, and he looks as good a finisher as any. Gibson is obviously a huge miss to Everton and I would expect maybe Heitinga to come in for him. He will add to Everton's defensive capabilities and might free up the likes of Osman and Pienaar. Fellaini did himself no favours with his comments while away on International duty and it will be interesting to see what the fans make of that. Not too confident with any bets for this match but I fancy Everton to score early on. Result after 30mins - 2pts EVERTON @ 15/8 Ladbrokes Which half will produce the most goals - 2pts FIRST @ 11/5 Ladbrokes

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

I am, and I always look out for your thoughts as what you say has an impact on my own thoughts :) Newcastle are touching over 6 now, so I guess you won't touch it.... But I just can't believe the over reaction in the market because you know as well as I do that team news is often overplayed, and unless a side genuinely don't have any replacement players, they can still put out eleven footballers with two feet capable of playing. You wouldn't even see this sort of shift if united were missing vidic and Ferdinand (which I think is much more important to united, than the current missings are for Newcastle). Everton could always win of course, but as far as value goes I'd be nuts to turn away the prices on offer for Newcastle.

I just posted without seeing this, that I wasn't getting involved. But I might...I totally agree where the value is here, and now that I look at the practice as well as the theory the numbers for the draw look pretty good. Here are the numbers the past three seasons in the EPL for underdogs of between 6.0 and 7.99: 2011/12 : 5-13-27 (29% draw) 2010/11 : 5-11-27 (26% draw) 2009/10 : 6-15-27 (31% draw) With draws paying a little more than 4/1, the break-even point is 24%. On the whole, weekend games were better than weekday games: 2011/12 : weekday 25%, weekend 30% 2010/11 : weekday 30%, weekend 24% 2009/10 : weekday 22%, weekend 33% By the way, so far this year the tally is 0-1-2 (33%). By the way, I can only find last year's list quickly...Newcastle were dogs of 6.0 to 7.99 three times in 2011/12, got hammered by Spurs and Reds, but won at Chelsea. Everton were home against Blackburn (6.4), Wolves (6.6), Swansea (6.77), Norwich (7.39) and Bolton (7.53). FT were 1-1 (Blackburn and Norwich), 1-2 (Bolton), 2-1 (Wolves) and 1-0 (Swansea). I guess I'll wait to see how my overs go in the two Russia games today...but I'm talking myself into the draw.

[Denman]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th The market for this game baffles me completely. For me Everton & Newcastle are two very closely match teams, granted you could say Newcastle over-achieved last season and perhaps you could make an argument for Everton being a slightly superior team. All things being considered I would price up Everton around evens for this game and find it odd that their odds have took such a massive plunge and are currently 1.63/1.64 on Betfair. I know Newcastle have some doubts over a few key players for them, but unless there are playing a reserve team I don't see how Everton are so short here against a Newcastle side even with a few players missing who I don't rate that far behind Everton to warrant such underdog status here.

[Jase82]

Everton were home against Blackburn (6.4), Wolves (6.6), Swansea (6.77), Norwich (7.39) and Bolton (7.53). FT were 1-1 (Blackburn and Norwich), 1-2 (Bolton), 2-1 (Wolves) and 1-0 (Swansea). .

Didn't they go one down to wolves as well....

[ThusPrider]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th I have surpassed my mug instincts with this one. Everything points towards Everton but the odds are over exaggerated. It's easy talking about the factors going in Everton's favour such as Newcastle's midweek commitments, injuries, form and so on.. but in my opinion the odds have already accommodated for all those things. It's no good just saying all that then backing Everton to win at these poor odds. I also really fancy Everton on this one like every mug and their dog, however the odds are just so poor.

[danhardy]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th with such odds for a draw between the two(4.00), I much prefer to play low stakes on a draw that to play higher stakes on Everton even with the missing players on the Newcastle side, I just don't trust the Everton side yet, its not the first time they have an up-and-down start of the PL, the home game against United should not really count, its just a different story. I find it strange that Mustafa :D doesn't see this game as a BTTS, Newcastle sure has the strength to do so and for Everton is a must, I do think that Jelavic or the man behind him will find the net with the players Newcastle will have in defense. BTTS @ 1.72 draw @ 4.00

[macmuck]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Alot seem to think that the Everton price is too short and so I. There was not a lot between these two sides over the course of last season and altho Newcastle are under strength, they should now be in a position to cover the missing players better than in the past. I mean, it's one of them that screams value lay. May well not come thro but if you lay these regularly I dont think you'll go too far wrong. 6.4 is a bit insulting isnt it for a manager of Pardew's quality. Anybody on the overs? I was thinking of them inplay!

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

Didn't they go one down to wolves as well....

Everton beat them 2-1 on a late penalty.

[allthethings]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th Oh, and I've taken the draw @ 4.3

[Kiddo112]

Re: Everton v Newcastle > September 17th

with such odds for a draw between the two(4.00), I much prefer to play low stakes on a draw that to play higher stakes on Everton even with the missing players on the Newcastle side, I just don't trust the Everton side yet, its not the first time they have an up-and-down start of the PL, the home game against United should not really count, its just a different story. I find it strange that Mustafa :D doesn't see this game as a BTTS, Newcastle sure has the strength to do so and for Everton is a must, I do think that Jelavic or the man behind him will find the net with the players Newcastle will have in defense. BTTS @ 1.72 draw @ 4.00

Hey Dan, you can get 1.72 on Newcastle to score with Stan James. Better bet if you have access.