Ante post betting question/Discussion - Is Ante Post Betting Worth Bothering With?

[erhaab1965]

Wednesday sees this years Juddmonte with 9 declared runners , EW paying 1/5 odd 3 places as per usual. Last Friday a Lad-brokes had 10 runners listed yet were going 1/4 odds 2 places , I've never seen that before in over decades of punting . I spotted this in a shop in the morning and again several hours later in another shop. They also had Nathaniel listed yet on the front page of the Racing Post it was said he was very likely not to run. Is going 2 places when 10 are listed acceptable EW terms ? What are the views of the professional punters on here ?

[BillyHills]

Re: Ante post betting question I know some firms were laying Nathaniel 'with a run'. Not sure about the place terms you saw, never heard of that one? Looked at Ladbroke rules and it sounds like EW terms in ante post markets can be what they like and dont have to follow the normal guidelines. Also noticed Blue Square were doing the same terms.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question

I know some firms were laying Nathaniel 'with a run'. Not sure about the place terms you saw, never heard of that one? Looked at Ladbroke rules and it sounds like EW terms in ante post markets can be what they like and dont have to follow the normal guidelines. Also noticed Blue Square were doing the same terms.

This was last Friday , I went next door to W Hills and they had 7 horses listed 2 places ,no Nathaniel , I double checked in Lad-brokes and it was as I described. I think they were expecting a few pacemakers to drop out which hasn't happened.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question I think the bookies set an ante post precedent with the Juddmonte International by offering EW terms of 2 places only when there were 8 or horses still left in. In the Champion Stakes again involving Frankel at 1/6 , some are offering EW terms of 1/4 odds 2 places , whilst only a minority are offering the traditional odds of 1/5 odds 3 places based on the current 8 left in. Of course almost everybody expects Frankel to whizz it at 1/6 on Saturday , but that leaves only 1 place on offer rather than the standard 2. Punters need to club together and make their voices be heard otherwise they will keep turning the screw and shaft us even more in the future. Can anybody remember seeing such awful EW terms for any race other than the Juddmonte ?

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question This coming Saturday sees the Betfair Chase , currently there are 8 horses listed however some bookies are offering EW terms of 1/4 odds 2 places , I don't know about other bookies but W H-ills are offering these odds but they revert to 1/5 places if 8 line up. I noticed them doing something similar with Frankel's races. Do any of the professionals on here know if this the norm now , as a regular but casual punter I would expect 3 places when betting ante post when 8 are listed. The appeal of betting EW ante post is to get bigger odds and better place terms . Its always satisfying when you are on EW at a huge odds and 3 places when only 4 or 5 line up. But now it seems to have changed for the worse for ante post punters.

[The Saint]

Re: Ante post betting question They do what they want now Erhaab and there is nothing whatsoever we can do about it! Am almost exclusivly on Betfair now. This having been said, I don't think I would want to lay 3 places when in all likelehood, 4 runners is a definate possibility... I detest Bookmakers for many reasons but couldn't really complain about this one - not with 5 days until post time. Something like The Derby is obviously different if only 7 turn up and you've jumped on one 6 months beforehand - in that instance they'd have so much money in the bank from NRs they will obviously stand the 3 places... According to Oddschecker, Coral, Ladbrokes and Fred are going 1/5, 123 but I would take that with a large pinch of salt personally....

[BillyHills]

Re: Ante post betting question Its the same with Formula One Betting Erhaab, the last three races most bookies have been offering only two places, especially when Vettel has been a 2/5 shot to win the race. Im not surprised when the chances are that the races will be less than 8 runners but we have 24 cars in the Grand Prix. Its rubbish to say the least. As i said earlier there are no specific rules about ante-post betting, its up to the individual bookie, if one firm did it they would lose business but no doubt they all get together and agree certain policies between them on certain markets?? PS: Dont know any pro's on here by the way that you keep going on about??

[The Saint]

Re: Ante post betting question IF Bet Fred will honour first 3 in the Betfair Chase, here's the plan! Back Silviniaco Conti @ 5/2, EW with them and lay off the win part of the bet at 3.5 (current price) @ Betfair. Wait for a couple to drop out and then when 5 or 6 are declared lay Silviniaco for the place on Betfair for your stake places 1 & 2. The risk is that he doesn't run but if he did, and finished 3rd, you'd clean up and have no risk to your capital at all! Stroll up to Freds after the race and they'll probably claim an error which is why this tactic ain't for me! Grand Prix is another example(like Frankel) where the Bokkmaker gentleman change their odds to suit now. They'd basically be laying a price for the place that is way above the true odds of the 2nd or 3rd fav placing. Novice Hurdels, maidens etc with odds on favs - I'm sure the bookie will change their EW terms soon enough when they don't suit - they can't win on these races long term but neither can you because EW theivery will result in accounts being closed sharpish!

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question

Its the same with Formula One Betting Erhaab, the last three races most bookies have been offering only two places, especially when Vettel has been a 2/5 shot to win the race. Im not surprised when the chances are that the races will be less than 8 runners but we have 24 cars in the Grand Prix. Its rubbish to say the least. As i said earlier there are no specific rules about ante-post betting, its up to the individual bookie, if one firm did it they would lose business but no doubt they all get together and agree certain policies between them on certain markets?? PS: Dont know any pro's on here by the way that you keep going on about??

Thanks for replies BH , Saint. It seems that they are turning the screw and closing any loopholes where punters might have an edge. Granted the example races were priced up close to the day of the races but lets hope it doesn't apply to long term ante post bets where the fields have traditionally been small like the Champion Chase , The Eclipse.... EW betting on the Premiership is dreadful too , 2 places @ 1/3 odds when 20 teams and Man Utd and Man City both 6/4 or less , where is the EW value ? BH maybe I should have used the term full time horse racing enthusiasts or something similar , rather than professionals , just wanted some response from those with more technical knowledge.I wasn't suggesting anyone was a professional gambler although some could be.

[BillyHills]

Re: Ante post betting question I'm finding on course bookies are so tight these days too, in the morning where we have a shortie in a novice hurdle you can back anything outside the top 4 in the market at 25/1+, when we get the first show they are 12/1 and 14/1. Even the 66/1 rags are now 33/1 all of a sudden. Seems they just dont want EW bets full stop.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question Now the NH season is in full swing , there will be a feature race each Saturday with bookies pricing them up at the beginning of the week. Quite often they issue statements about horses being gambled on which they have had to shorten up . This is a ploy to get punters trapped into taking the shortened odds and maybe back an eventual non runner. Over the course of the season the prices on the morning of the race will often beat what was offered just a few days earlier. Now they have introduced worse EW terms with the provisio that they are better should a big field turn up , it makes short range ante post bets unattractive.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question The overnight Hennessy prices are in general miles better than those at the beginning of the week as I said in an above post especially the market leaders. Be careful not to get suckered into taking midweek prices especially if your selection needs certain conditions.

[NeilM]

That's why I didn't back Darlan: I was tempted but wondered about the ground. I'm on Trifolium for three places though. I've noticed on course bookies getting far tighter as BH mentions above. Since moving abroad I've tried to go racing every time I come back and it's quite apparent that they don't like EW bets: quite a few are now outrightly win only. As for ante post terms, punters need to get together and shout about it. Bookies offer AP bets because they're an excellent money earner (especially if a long term fav gets beaten, for example Hurricane Fly this year). Changing the terms on the grounds that they may be better on the day is not in their long term interests and they need to wake up sharpish. It would be interesting for, say, one of broadsheets to look into this. Tabloids would be better but they get too much revenue from bookmaker ads and someone whacking a load of AP bets on is more likely to be a broadsheet reader (no offence to anyone. Personally I prefer tabloid sports coverage). They get away with it on the Premiership because of markets like 'top four finish' and so on but the prices are always worse than if you'd got a 20/1 outright at 1/4. People go for it because it doesn't involve doubling your stake as with EW but don't realise they're being screwed. Were I running marketing for a major player I'd persuade the traders to go down the route of better prices/terms because it would attract more money and it isn't that hard to hedge that kind of thing. I appreciate no one will do that because it fits in with no current strategies. On another note, it would be extremely interesting to offer AP bets on a horse that would never in a million years have an entry (Jonnie Skull for the Arkle say) and see how much money there was for it. I'm surprised this hasn't been done especially as there are people out there who wanted prices for Frankel to win the National.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Ante post betting question You must have been buzzing being on EW 3 places in a 4 horse race , what bad luck it comes 4th of 4 !!

On another note, it would be extremely interesting to offer AP bets on a horse that would never in a million years have an entry (Jonnie Skull for the Arkle say) and see how much money there was for it. I'm surprised this hasn't been done especially as there are people out there who wanted prices for Frankel to win the National.

The bookies are always slow to remove non runners from ante post lists , sometimes they remain in the betting for days , yet when informed money is bet on a gamble they react within minutes / seconds. The bookies often use the tabloids to get mug punters to part with their money. When they were looking for the next person to replace Timothy Dalton as James Bond they offered odds on people like Paul Gascoine ( football player with geordie accent ) and Frank Bruno ( boxer and of African descent !!). From Mondays take note how many bookies use the Racing Post to highlight how many horses have been gambled on and shortened , and then compare the gambled on prices with the eventual SP.

[NeilM]

I was jumping around like a madman during the race! It is quite often the case that a trainer or owner will explicitly say that x horse isn't entering and the bookies will keep it in for ages after: there were a lot of bets for Menorah for the Paddy Power even after Phillip Hobbs had said the Haldon Gold Cup was the target for example. The example I use of Jonnie Skull in the Arkle is probably wide of the mark but around, say, mid January a very cynical bookie could run adverts saying 'we're 20/1 on Jonnie Skull for the Champion Bumper, special price this weekend only' and easily take a few thousand.

[Aidymac]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! Great thread Saint. My number 1 problem, is i have a bet every day. I like to back 1 horse every day. I know it has worked well this year, but in 2013 it may not work as well. The thing is, how do you fine tune it, how do you become more selective, as i work off level stakes? Not easy. About ante-post betting for horse racing, in my opinion there is no value whatsoever in antepost. I backed Hunt Ball antepost @ 11/2, and come the race it was 8 or 9/1 SP. You are better off waiting until the day or the day before, as i also backed Nocturnal Affair antepost on the flat this season for quite high stakes, and a couple of days before the race the horse got an illness. No value in my mind anyways.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! A fair shout re: Ante-Post Aidy, really I think my punt on Dawn Approach is down to the fact that to get a decent bet on it, this was likely my best chance to do so, with money I didn't expect to have, at what I reckon should be a solid price. That said, this is really my first proper foray into this kind of thing, so generally i've got to bow to experience. The way it's all worked out, it's a relatively safe environment to test the water. If it comes off and I think it was worthwhile doing again, maybe I will. Suspect 2013's going to be a steep learning curve for me either way.

[NeilM]

I'd add ante-post as well- I like the strategy of small amounts although I'm concerned about prices drifting- I've for Oscar's Well for the Arkle at 10/1 for the Arkle and it's already out to 13.5. That was impulsive after Punchestown. Also no more multiples over a double- my main worry is that I'll persuade myself that mixed doubles are OK from seven selections or something like that. Finally, value. It's obviously an age old debate about what value is but my approach here will be linked to reviewing how I look at laying. I see far more value with lays than backs and can link it into a new strategy vis-a-vis ante-post. Laying is definitely what I need to focus on.

[mowgli77]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! I had stopped recording bets because they are nearly always with the same bookmaker and that obviously provides problems with value too. My cash is with Bet365 but often the best odds are Paddypower. I don't like having money tied up in loads of accounts even though it makes sense from a value perspective. I started recording bets again at the end of October and this really helps reflect on mistakes, overbetting, taking prices that are on the boundary of value/not value. It has helped me turn a decent profit so far, bank is now 10 times what I started with when I went back to recording bets. Still need to work on footy bets but had a nice return last week with a treble, backing too many draws when home wins and value aways over evens seem to get me decent returns. I have tried to sort out a problem someone mentions above regards staking. If a horse is 3-1 I might have x amount to win but less on a 33-1 chance, probably more to do with possible returns to a limited stake but if I feel a 33-1 shot represents great value then I know I should back it with confidence and not let the price sway me to bet less on it. I looked at past results and found each way bets help with confidence and I go close plenty of the time. Today is a good example, 3pts WIN on Frontier Spirit, comes 2nd by 1/2 a length. 1pt EW on Isla Pearl Fisher at 9-1 rather than a win, gets up by a neck. Even if it had placed and not won I'd know I had called it right to go close and made the right decision with an ew bet. I loathe to bet each way on horses around 3-1/4-1 but I know these can be popular bets with the big hitters although it feels like protecting your stake, a bit too much loss minimisation. I'm concentrating on chases for the NH season, could do more study into hurdles races. Ante Post I enjoy and the odd £5 and £10 here and there if I feel there is still value is the way forward for me with that as long as I take into account the no of horses that don't even get a run on the day in comparison with any value prices and ante post winners. I like to take on overrated favourites and wouldn't mind taking some of my bank and using it to lay on Betfair. Something to consider for 2013. :ok

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

Great thread Saint. My number 1 problem, is i have a bet every day. I like to back 1 horse every day. I know it has worked well this year, but in 2013 it may not work as well. The thing is, how do you fine tune it, how do you become more selective, as i work off level stakes? Not easy. About ante-post betting for horse racing, in my opinion there is no value whatsoever in antepost. I backed Hunt Ball antepost @ 11/2, and come the race it was 8 or 9/1 SP. You are better off waiting until the day or the day before, as i also backed Nocturnal Affair antepost on the flat this season for quite high stakes, and a couple of days before the race the horse got an illness. No value in my mind anyways.

Tell that to Mileni, bloke is an absolute genius backing ante post.

[Aidymac]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

Tell that to Mileni' date=' bloke is an absolute genius backing ante post.[/quote'] That is why i said "In my opinion". I am not Mileni. You won't find many that can make money on antepost.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

That is why i said "In my opinion". I am not Mileni.

Well, there is value if people can find it. What you mean is, you cant find value in ante post betting.

[Aidymac]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

Well' date=' there is value if people can find it. What you mean is, you cant find value in ante post betting.[/quote'] I would love to see a single person on Punters Lounge have a profitable season on ante post betting on horse racing this season, and if they do, i will tip my hat to them. Mileni was an exception, he, for me, was a brilliant punter, one of the minority. So, there is the challenge if anyone wants to have a crack at it. ;) The only other possible contender to rake an antepost profit would be BKI Punter for me. Yes, i cannot find value in antepost, i am pretty sure you couldn't too. :lol

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

I would love to see a single person on Punters Lounge have a profitable season on ante post betting on horse racing this season, and if they do, i will tip my hat to them. Mileni was an exception, he, for me, was a brilliant punter, one of the minority. So, there is the challenge if anyone wants to have a crack at it. ;) The only other possible contender to rake an antepost profit would be BKI Punter for me. Yes, i cannot find value in antepost, i am pretty sure you couldn't too. :lol

Well, i only bet in class 2-5 handicaps so my ante post betting opportunities are quite limited. Even still, though i've never tried and have probably placed 1 or 2 ante post bets in my life, you're right i dont think i could turn a profit through ante post betting. I might give it a go next flat season though now you've set the challenge, to see how tough it really is.

[mowgli77]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

I would love to see a single person on Punters Lounge have a profitable season on ante post betting on horse racing this season, and if they do, i will tip my hat to them. Mileni was an exception, he, for me, was a brilliant punter, one of the minority. So, there is the challenge if anyone wants to have a crack at it. ;) The only other possible contender to rake an antepost profit would be BKI Punter for me. Yes, i cannot find value in antepost, i am pretty sure you couldn't too. :lol

We'll see how people get on with BH's ante post competition. My 16-1 for Captain Conan looks quite nice right about now in that competition. :)

[NeilM]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! I'm awful at ante-post. However, I know someone who is superb. Absolutely superb. He has an incredible nose for it. He does come from a family of bookmakers though and I suspect that is the key. The thing with a profitable season is how many bets you make- if you have one and it comes in, you've had a profitable season. If you manage to green an entire race (I know we have the Grand National thread) and that is the only one you do, you've had a profitable season. Otherwise it would be near impossible if you bet like a punter rather than think like a trader, and where is the fun in that?

[Aidymac]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

Well' date=' i only bet in class 2-5 handicaps so my ante post betting opportunities are quite limited. Even still, though i've never tried and have probably placed 1 or 2 ante post bets in my life, you're right i dont think i could turn a profit through ante post betting. I might give it a go next flat season though now you've set the challenge, to see how tough it really is.[/quote'] I hope you do mate, it would be nice to see a few people being able to find value in antepost, as you have to know your **** in that game. I admire anyone who can make a profit on antepost in racing. I won't give up myself, but am papertrading at the moment.

[mowgli77]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!!

Well' date=' i only bet in class 2-5 handicaps so my ante post betting opportunities are quite limited. Even still, though i've never tried and have probably placed 1 or 2 ante post bets in my life, you're right i dont think i could turn a profit through ante post betting. I might give it a go next flat season though now you've set the challenge, to see how tough it really is.[/quote'] It's partly timing, partly luck and looking ahead to the future to see possible races a horse will go for. I posted some of my antepost bets on Aidy's facebook wall before. Had Albertas Run before at 37.0 and went off about 7-1 on the day and also had 14-1 on Sizing Europe for the QMCC, posted it in the antepost Cheltenham thread that year too. Getting to know the race calendar and likely routes is key such as Betfair Chase>King George>Gold Cup as a basic example.

[bowles10]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! Dont forget Master Minded at 85.0, started at 5/2 on the day, i backed it before it jumped a twig in the UK, on the basis of knowing who had bought the horse I feel those type of bets are damn lucky (hunches even) Proper ante post racing is what my dad would do, he would get tips for upcoming races and wasnt afraid to lay out the money, last year he did a win canadian, and had 4 places and 1 winner , he was pig sick as they were decent prices

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Punter's Lounge Confessional - Aspects I Must Improve - Making it pay in 2013!! Ante-post is really difficult. Haven't really landed a good one although The Fugue was desperate for me in the Oaks this year having backed her before the Musidora. I generally get a good idea of which races are suited to certain horses and quite often they go off a fair bit shorter but you have to have so much go your way both before and during the race. I enjoy the odd ante-post bet each year though. As for my weaknesses, I do feel I'm getting much better at most things. I'm far more selective now and regularly go without a proper bet (albeit picking a BBOTD most days) and my staking is much better. My one thing at the moment is time. Really busy with uni work at the moment so rarely get the chance to get really stuck into the form except for the big Saturday cards or big meetings. It's no surprise that my form in my jumps thread is far better than that in the BBOTD competition of late as the former come from some good study and reasoning whereas often I just try and find a horse that looks to have a good chance on first glance for the comp. Gives me something to look forward to on an afternoon when I'm just concentrating on an essay, for example! So yeah, making sure I don't get lazy with it and only go through with a selection which is quite well thought out. Definitely on the right track with playing mainly in higher grade races and my staking is much more disciplined too. If I keep them in check then I'm hopeful of having a good 2013.