Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Cherno More-Levski Sf The situation in both camps is very delicate.Cherno More haven't score since the beginning of the 2nd part of the season,losing all three games(2:0,0:1,1:0)Their coach is Levski's former legendary forward Georgi Ivanov who knows Levski' weaknesses very well.There are rumours that he will be fired if his team fail to take a point at least.Earlier this week Levski's manager Iliyan Iliev resigned but the club owner gave him a credit and saying that he trusts him.Anyway fans are losing their faith in him beacuse of Levski's failures this season in CL as well as in the local championship.They drew at home last week against one of the poorest sides and missed the chance to top the league.Now they will be without their playmaker,Gadzhev while his replacements 34 years old Angelov was sent ouf of the squad due to his bad perfomance.Iliev said that this game could be decisive for some of his players and if they don't show what he wants they will be leaving in the summer.So this gameis a must win for Levski as well as for Cherno More who is just one point above the relegation zone.A couple of months ago Cherno More beat Levski 1:0 for the Cup of Bulgaria.Given all that i shall say thatt Levski "destroys" Cherno More at home but they find it difficult when they have to travel to Varna.Sayng all that Levski is way too classier than Cherno More and given the situatin in both teams and the gamewhich is a must for both teams i think Levski will win and take a breath.Anyway the odds are not what I expected and 1.45 is not attractive to me especially given Levski's away form,team issues,Gadzhev's missing and historical difficulties at "Ticha".Under 2.5 would be a good bet too,but i will skip this game.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 I would add that Cherno More are infamous for being something like the local Stoke City, i.e. playing very aggressive, defensive and sometimes brutal football. They are the masters of unders. This game has under 2.5 written all over it, and I think that even at 1.60 it does have value. It hasn't stopped raining in the country for several days, and the stadium of Cherno More is notorious with its terrible pitch, which gets even worse when a big team is visiting and Cherno More needs desperately to stop them. Given the weather, there is no doubt that the pitch of Cherno More will be at "its best" (i.e. you will need special equipment to be able to trespass it).

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 So, in brief, my tips for the upcoming round: 1) Cherno More - Levski A bit short price on unders, but I would still take it, because I personally wouldn't price unders here higher than 1.35-1.40. The arguments are in the post above. I will also take another bet - double chance on home team. They lost only once to Levski in Varna in the last 6 games. They desperately need points from this game, because the relegation threat is immense. They are going to use any dirty tactics, and the bad pitch will be another home advantage, as they play physical and direct football, and Levski are definitely more technical. Cherno More's coach Georgi Ivanov is a former Levski player and manager, but he's got a serious personal conflict with the current director of Levski - Borimirov, and their coach - Iliev, so it will be an extra motivation for him. Levski are simply not good at the moment and the pressure upon them is too big, so they can hardly handle it. The micro-climate in the team is ruined, as their captain was taken out of the squad for indefinite period following last game's failure and he was publicly humiliated by the management. There are many infos about internal conflicts in the dressing room. The coach resigned but then decided to stay with the team, but I think that he has little authority in the dressing room and little respect among the supporters, and his days are counted. Cherno More or Draw @ 2.62 (bet365) Under 2.5 @ 1.65 (bet 365) 2. Lokomotiv Sofia - Ludogorets Another game where the pitch condition will be key factor. The game is played at neutral venue in Svoge, which is probably the worst pitch in A PFG, which very surprisingly (and undeservedly) holds license for professional football. As I wrote, the weather is very bad, and it will make the conditions even worse for the more skillful and pro-active visiting teams. Loko Sofia are also fighting against serious relegation thread. In the last 8 games, they had 7 unders, and after the winter break all their 4 games have been unders (only 3 goals scored in total for these 4 games - less than a goal per game). Their tactic for this game needs no guessing - parking the bus and waiting for some chances on the break or after set pieces. Ludogorets themselves are in bad scoring form this season. All three games they played after the winter break went under 2.5, featuring just 4 goals in total. And two of these games were at home against outsiders. Ludogorets will have many difficulties scoring in this game, and if they do and take the lead, they will surely try to slow down the game and keep the score. Under 2.5 @ 1.70

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

So, in brief, my tips for the upcoming round: 1) Cherno More - Levski A bit short price on unders, but I would still take it, because I personally wouldn't price unders here higher than 1.35-1.40. The arguments are in the post above. I will also take another bet - double chance on home team. They lost only once to Levski in Varna in the last 6 games. They desperately need points from this game, because the relegation threat is immense. They are going to use any dirty tactics, and the bad pitch will be another home advantage, as they play physical and direct football, and Levski are definitely more technical. Cherno More's coach Georgi Ivanov is a former Levski player and manager, but he's got a serious personal conflict with the current director of Levski - Borimirov, and their coach - Iliev, so it will be an extra motivation for him. Levski are simply not good at the moment and the pressure upon them is too big, so they can hardly handle it. The micro-climate in the team is ruined, as their captain was taken out of the squad for indefinite period following last game's failure and he was publicly humiliated by the management. There are many infos about internal conflicts in the dressing room. The coach resigned but then decided to stay with the team, but I think that he has little authority in the dressing room and little respect among the supporters, and his days are counted. Cherno More or Draw @ 2.62 (bet365) Under 2.5 @ 1.65 (bet 365)

Cherno More - Levski 1:1 :cow Good start, both bets coming in!

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

2. Lokomotiv Sofia - Ludogorets Another game where the pitch condition will be key factor. The game is played at neutral venue in Svoge, which is probably the worst pitch in A PFG, which very surprisingly (and undeservedly) holds license for professional football. As I wrote, the weather is very bad, and it will make the conditions even worse for the more skillful and pro-active visiting teams. Loko Sofia are also fighting against serious relegation thread. In the last 8 games, they had 7 unders, and after the winter break all their 4 games have been unders (only 3 goals scored in total for these 4 games - less than a goal per game). Their tactic for this game needs no guessing - parking the bus and waiting for some chances on the break or after set pieces. Ludogorets themselves are in bad scoring form this season. All three games they played after the winter break went under 2.5, featuring just 4 goals in total. And two of these games were at home against outsiders. Ludogorets will have many difficulties scoring in this game, and if they do and take the lead, they will surely try to slow down the game and keep the score. Under 2.5 @ 1.70

Loko Sofia - Ludogorets 0-1 :nana After a sloppy start of the spring session, I am finding my shape now. I will deliver new tips for the upcoming Cup fixtures.

[McNasara]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Well done :clap:clap

[krisko891]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 CSKA Sofia - Lokomotiv Sofia - CSKA to win to 0 / Under 2.5 goals To start with, Lokomotiv Sofia are terrible in attack, they have scored 1 goal in their last 6 games. Also, in their last 7 games there have been under 2.5 goals. On the other hand, CSKA Sofia have been in a good form lately with the arrival of their new coach. They have won 3 of their last 4 games and have not conceded a single goal. Their main problem however is the lack of physical condition, usually their players play magnificently in the first half and then seem really tired in the second. That is why I would go for a 1-0 or 2-0 home win and would recommend: CSKA to win to 0, CSKA to lead by half-time and win, and Under 2.5 goals in the game. Good luck!

[McNasara]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 6 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Botev Vratsa v CSKA Sofia (13:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.36 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.14 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Botev Plovdiv v Cherno More (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chernomorets Burgas v Montana (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.94 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Lokomotiv Sofia (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.65 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.43 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] PFC Minyor Pernik v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.85 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.13 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 7 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Levski Sofia v Beroe (14:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.1 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]110.46 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ludogorets Razgrad v Litex Lovech (16:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.85 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.28 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 1/4 Finals for the Bulgarian Cup tomorrow. Here are my two tips: 1) CSKA - Lokomotiv Sofia First game finished 0:0. CSKA is without arguments the better side. However, I don't think they will win easily and without resistance. Lokomotiv Sofia so far has had only unders in the spring session - 5 games out of which 4 went under 1.5 and one - under 2.5. The result in the first leg leaves no doubt regarding Loko approach - they will park the bus and look to bring the game into extra time. They are team that possesses very physical and aggressive players, and despite that on overall the team under-performs, it is very difficult to score goals against them. CSKA have two key missings for this game. Brazilian midfielder Sacha and fullback Bandalovsky. Sacha is, in my view, the best midfielder in the team, and the one who's got vision and excellent passing. Bandalovsky, despite being nominally a defender, is one of the best dribblers in the team, and he is certainly far better and more dangerous up-front than his counter-part winger Priso. So, these two missings will have fundamental effect on CSKA attack. CSKA doesn't score a lot and most of their games are unders. Last Sunday, against the weakest team in the league, they barely managed to get over the 2.5 goals border. The team lacks creativity and feels much more comfortable when they play away from home and are left with more empty spaces to explore. Besides, during manager Radukanov's previous spell with the team, it was typical that CSKA would score more goals away from home than at their own stadium. Under 2.5 @ 2.20 (bet 365) 2. Litex - Levski William Hill offers the huge 2.20 price for home win which in my opinion is very good value (for instance, bet 365 gives only 2.0). Litex, under Hristo Stoichkov, are without any doubt the best playing team in Bulgaria at the moment. They also form the back-bone of the Bulgarian national team. Litex generally have excellent H2H against Levski in Lovech. The first game in Sofia was like one-way traffic where Litex entirely dominated their hosts which were lucky to score with their only good chance. This game was marked by a huge scandal after the ref disallowed a regular goal for Litex in the extra time. This caused huge public outburst and will most likely raise the tensions about this return leg. As a matter of fact, games between Litex and Levski, especially in Lovech, have been very tense and very charged, and the two teams have strong rivalry since mid 1990s. Levski are amidst total mess in the moment. The team plays very poorly and they failed to win in the last three games in the league. The media and supporters pressure on the manager and players is almost unbearable. The micro-climate in the dressing room is under question, as the captain of the team has been taken out of the squad for disciplinary motives, and there are reports that the team is split into groups, some of which supporting the manager, and others disapproving of him. The biggest problem for Levski, in my view, is that their team lacks aggression and doesn't have good fighting spirit. They are very soft and easily break-down under pressure. And to get good result in Lovech against extremely motivated and very well playing Litex, you need a team with strong character and spirit - something that Levski desperately misses. Litex @ 2.20 (William Hill)

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

1/4 Finals for the Bulgarian Cup tomorrow. Here are my two tips: 1) CSKA - Lokomotiv Sofia Under 2.5 @ 2.20 (bet 365) 2. Litex - Levski Litex @ 2.20 (William Hill)

CSKA - Loko Sofia 0-1 Litex - Levski 2-1 The good run continues! :) See you with more picks before the weekend.

[killerkim]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Wow good one mate, may your success continue!

[Dzontra85]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

CSKA - Loko Sofia 0-1 Litex - Levski 2-1 The good run continues! :) See you with more picks before the weekend.

Great calls mate thanks for Litex :)

[McNasara]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 [TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 6 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Botev Vratsa v CSKA Sofia (13:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.33 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.52 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Botev Plovdiv v Cherno More (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.53 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] FC Etar Veliko Tarnovo v Lokomotiv Sofia (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.2 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.55 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.95 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] PFC Minyor Pernik v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.9 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.46 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Slavia Sofia v PFC Pirin Gotse Delchev (15:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.75 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.75 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.50 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chernomorets Burgas v Montana (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.55 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 7 April 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Levski Sofia v Beroe (14:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.16 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ludogorets Razgrad v Litex Lovech (16:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.85 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.28 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[hariton]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Ludogorets Razgrad v Litex Lovech I think that Ludogoretz will get easy win here, too many problems for Litex. Litex are without there 2 capitans Jelenkovic and Bodurov, and now their main CF Isa will be suspended as well. They have played very hard game with Levski in the midweek, while Ludogoretz have rested. I have watched the match between Levski and Litex, and another 2 players also got some minor injures, G.Milanov and Slavchev. I think that with these problems for Litex will be very hard to make something against, may be the best team in Bulgaria.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Bookies seem to have done good job this weekend and cut-off most profiting opportunities. Hariton is right that Litex have some important problems before visiting Ludogorets, but I personally wouldn't touch home win at 1.85, given that Litex plays the best football and the moment and Ludogorets is very much out of shape. My two tips for this round are: 1). Etar - Lokomotiv Sofia I consider this the tip of the week and am fairly confident Loko will win this. It is an absolute must win for them if they want to survive (and this is a team with strong tradition which hasn't gone down for decades), they are in good form at the moment and have bright mood after defeating CSKA in the national cup. The match will be played at neutral venue in Sliven, so no home factor involved. Loko have better team than Etar, they are absolutely motivated, and as no home factor is involved, they must have at least 60% chance of winning here, which is way above the price assigned by bookies. Loko do have two important players suspended, but I don't think this will be decisive. Etar, together with Minyor, are the two worst teams in the league. They are a very weird case, as their owners are Turks, almost all their players are non-Bulgarians (however, not classy ones, but just some guys from lower level and amateur leagues), they play their "home" games at neutral venues, the supporters of Etar in Veliko Turnovo actually hate this team and its current owners and don't support them. Etar changed practically all their squad during the winter and showed some improvement over the first few games, but they will definitely go down. I also question their motivation for this game, especially in comparison with Loko's, as their players are non-Bulgarian, most of them will be probably leaving in the summer, and there's no support/pressure from the stands. Loko Sofia @ 2.55 2.Minyor - Loko Plovdiv I underestimated a lot Minyor because they got no salaries for months and most of their players from last season left the team. However, they do put up resistance and seem they are not such a bad team as I assumed. Their coach is decent, and I liked their performance in Sofia against CSKA last round. They play with strong fighting spirit, defend well (for the standards of the bottom of the league) and have some fast players up-front. Minyor are definitely not going to leave A PFG without fight. The match at home with Loko Plovdiv is mandatory for them to grab some points. I expect them to use a lot of aggression and engage in physical football with a lot of clashes and tackling. The weather is bad, and so will be the pitch, which is a factor in their advantage, as Loko is the more technical and less physical team. Loko is like a perfect opponent for Minyor at the moment, because they are stuck in the middle of the table and basically have nothing to play for. I strongly question their motivation for this game, as I expect Minyor to be very physical and aggressive, and don't feel that Loko Plovdiv is mentally prepared for a tough battle away from home, given their comfortable table position. I also don't feel that Loko will match the physical football of Minyor and risk injuries in a meaningless for them match. Yet, I am not taking straight home win, as Minyor are no world-beaters and definitely have problems scoring goals. But I think it is very unlikely they will lose this one, so will stick with double chance. Minyor or Draw @ 1.80 (Marathon)

[hariton]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 agreed for Minyor, but for the other game no. The fact that 90% of the players of Etar are not-Bulgarian kills the home factor at all, for these players is the same if they play with home support or no. Etar have manage to get some nice results at all, win over Cherno More(away) and draw with Pirin GD(away). And at all for the style of the play it is plus that there are no Bulgarian players at Etar. Loko Sf has won against CSKA and has made good battle with Ludogoretz, but in these games they have played defensive tactic with counters, tomorrow this will not work for sure. Other fact is that Etar has rested in the midweek, so they will be fresher for sure. Yes, Loko could win this game, but the odds are fair and imo even lower, it is battle of 2 equal teams at all, my advise is to skip this game.

[krisko891]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Etar - Lokomotiv Sofia - 2 Etar are by all means the worst team in the league and it would be a miracle if they don't relegate. They don't have a home advantage in their games because their stadium is not licensed so they play in another town. On the other hand, Lokomotiv Sofia are not great too, but have an experienced squad who should be able to win this game.

[Agrael82]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 CSKA's game in midweek will exhaust the team. Considering the physical condition of all teams in this league I see a low tempo match with occasional "rushes" by the visiting team. Wether or not they will score is difficult to predict, but I definitely like the under. Under 2.5 goals @bet365

[Agrael82]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

CSKA's game in midweek will exhaust the team. Considering the physical condition of all teams in this league I see a low tempo match with occasional "rushes" by the visiting team. Wether or not they will score is difficult to predict' date=' but I definitely like the under. Under 2.5 goals @bet365[/quote'] The odds for this pick are 1.85 at the moment

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

1). Etar - Lokomotiv Sofia Loko Sofia @ 2.55 2.Minyor - Loko Plovdiv Minyor or Draw @ 1.80 (Marathon)

Etar - Loko Sofia 2:2 :\ Minyor - Loko Plovdiv 1:1 :) Not so good today.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Today the mid-week round in Bulgaria starts with the mini-derby of Sofia between Loko Sofia and Slavia. Last weekend I trusted Loko to get the victory away to Etar, but they finished with a draw, although according to reports, Loko were by far the better and dominant team. I continue to trust them and expect them to deliver, because they are a good team with many experienced players and a good coach, and they don't deserve their current place at the table.Their schedule in the spring hasn't been the most favorable, but I am certain they will gradually catch up with points, and I find it very likely that they start it by winning today. Realistically, the motivation level of both teams is completely different. Slavia is stuck in the middle of the table and is mainly concerned about the national cup tournament where they qualified for the semi-finals. Loko, on the other hand, needs desperately points in order to save themselves in the elite. I totally expect Loko to offer a very harsh battle to this game, to which Slavia most likely won't be mentally prepared to respond. Last but not least, these two teams are known to have been involved in a few very questionable games between each other in the recent past. The owners of these clubs haven't changed since then, so I don't exclude the possibility that this game also isn't completely fair. And if this assumption actually turns true, then almost certainly Lokomotiv will be the team to benefit from any arrangement (because they are the team in need). Of course, don't get me wrong - I am not basing my tip on such assumption of non-fairplay. I have exposed my argument as to why I believe Loko have very decent chances of winning this game and is totally worth at 2.50. The possibility of some sort of arrangement, is only an extra argument in favor of backing Lokomotiv. Loko Sofia @ 2.50 (bet365)

[hardc0re]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 I disagree here. Slavia will not lose the derby day before celebrations to mark the 100th anniversary. Double Chance Slavia on 1,58 with marathonbet is not so bad...But I think the value here is both teams to score on 1,86, also with marathonbet. Loko Sf without Markinhos but with more offensive tactics than usually which create more chance for Slavia ot score. Although Loko Sf are the host and need points, so probably score also, especially with two attackers and two fast wingers.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Loko Sofia @ 2.50 (bet365)

Loko Sofia - Slavia 1-0 FT :D Fat, tasty 2.50 coming in! Now, let's see what we got tomorrow: 1) Loko Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa No idea why the bookies insist on treating Loko Plovdiv like a heavy goal-scoring favorite, as they are clearly not so strong and definitely not so prolific up-front for nearly an year already. Here we got two of the most underish, tight and boring teams in the league playing each other, and still the price for under 2.5 is whole 2.10! Just look at the last games of both teams: - Loko Plovdiv went over 2.5 only once this spring (and this was away to Litex which is naturally very bound to overs opponent) in contrast to 4 under games. In the last ten games in A PFG they got 3 overs, only one of which happened at their stadium. Out of eleven home games of Loko Plovdiv, just three went over 2.5! - Botev Vratsa did had goal fests in the last two games - 13 goals scored in total, but don't get misled by this. Before that, they had 10 consecutive unders, starting from the game with Ludogorets (21.10.2012) and finishing at 10.03.2013 after 1:2 with Pirin. It is interesting that Botev Vratsa had 10 games this season which went under 1.5 goals and 4 goal-less games - more than any other team in the league. H2H, 2 out of three games between these two were under 2.5, only one finished with precisely three goals. Loko Plovdiv, who is rightly the favorite here, doesn't have the good and prolific goal-scorers they used to have in the recent past. Their current attackers are not experienced enough and aren't a big threat. I expect close and boring game, where Botev will be happy with a precious point, while Loko Plovdiv will be more than satisfied with a minimal victory. Under 2.5 @ 2.10 (bet 365) 2) Minyor - Chernomorets I backed Minyor last weekend not to lose at home and they barely escaped the defeat vs Loko Plovdiv. This time, however, Minyor will have to try harder to attack and aim at the three points, because draws are not going to take them out to safety zone. However, against them they have a team that loves to counter-attack, and a team which just won this weekend thus interrupting a black series of several consecutive defeats. Chernomorets were a very good and solid team in the autumn, but started the spring session in a nightmare fashion. After 4 consecutive defeats, they finally won on Saturday, and now they breath freely and without tension. I feel we are going to witness an upward trend in the following few games of Chernomorets. Minyor is definitely less classy than them, and as I expect Minyor will give it a go and try to win this one, Chernomorets will feel extremely comfortable doing counter-attacks in empty spaces. And let's not forget that Chernomorets are coached by a wonderful specialist - Dimitar Dimitrov, who is one of the best in the business in Bulgaria and should surely lift his team back up. At the current price, away win is totally worth the shot. Chernomorets @ 2.40 (bet 365)

[hardc0re]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Slavia gave 3 points to Lokomotiv Sofia. Odds for HW dropped to 1,65 in local bookie before the game, while other bookies offered around 2,30-2,50 and I`m sorry that I`m writing so late... Today I suggest another game- Pirin Gotse Delchev-Levski. No serious problem for both teams before the game. The host play calm for now while Levski must play for win. I don`t expect any problem for them and I think that Levski will win easily with difference, so Levski -2AH with marathonbet on 2,08 is good choice here. Success!

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Loko Sofia - Slavia 1-0 FT :D Fat, tasty 2.50 coming in! Now, let's see what we got tomorrow: 1) Loko Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa Under 2.5 @ 2.10 (bet 365) 2) Minyor - Chernomorets Chernomorets @ 2.40 (bet 365)

Minyor - Chernomorets 0-1 Loko Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa 0-1 :cigar One last game tomorrow - the derby of the round between CSKA and Ludogorets in Sofia. Both teams are very messy and not in good shape, but while CSKA is alternating good and poor performances, Ludogorets are very stable and consistent - they have played very poor in every game in the spring so far. CSKA is priced at 2.35 in most bookies and this is way too high - at their own stadium, CSKA shouldn't be priced so high against any other team in the country, except for their arch-rivals Levski. Ludogorets, as I wrote, play very poor and they just struggle to create chances and score goals. 4 goals in 5 games, most of which against weak opposition, is just far too poor. For this game they have two importan absentees - both full-backs Minev and Keicara are suspended. These two guys have started 19 out of 20 total matches of Ludogorets this season, and their replacements will be players with very little experience. This will surely be a huge blow to Ludogerts and will offer CSKA many chances to explore on the flanks. CSKA also have one important absentee - Brazilian attacker and top-scorer of the team Platini is suspended. However, I definitely believe that the visitors absentees are of much bigger importance, because they don't have equal replacement. While Platini will be replaced by Kamburov, who despite being a bit older, has the reputation of the best goal-scorer in A PFG. Also Platini, as most Brazilians is a very moody player, who can be the best when in the right mood, but can also be a huge liability for his team when he "doesn't feel like playing". Another missing in CSKA is central defender Stoyanov, but this is actually one of the biggest advantages of CSKA and one of the main reason why I think they will win. Stoyanov hadn't been playing football for more than an year, when the new coach (supposedly closed friend of Stoyanov) decided that he will break the already established centre-defense couple and put Stoyanov as a starter. The outcome was that the best defense in Bulgaria before that turned into a complete joke and conceded whole 3 goals in the last game against Botev Vratsa. Fortunately, Stoyanov is sick (and maybe the coach was also influenced by the strong public uproar against his performance) and will miss this game, so I think CSKA defense will again return to its normal stable condition. CSKA @ 2.35 (William Hill)

[bennyboyt]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Followed you in @ 2.2 with PaddyPower, appreciate the tips.

[killerkim]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Unlucky Fedar followed you on the last two thanks for that, ludo missing some players look like they played for the 0-0...thanks for the tips regardless!

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Sorry guys, got really misled by foolish CSKA coach. I told you top striker Platini is suspended, but he will be replaced by veteran Kamburov, who is still a great striker. However, moronic coach benched Kamburov and CSKA played for 65 minutes without a real striker. I know that CSKA coach is no good, but I couldn't guess he could be so stupid.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Nevertheless, let's make up the damage with new tips: 1) Slavia - Litex A must-take away victory, because the price is unrealistically good and it will drop. I think that you can even make a small profit before the game by just taking the away price now and trading it on Saturday. Here are my arguments: - Litex are the best team in the league at the moment. They play great and are in top form. - Slavia's only priority is the national cup. They want to win it for their 100 years anniversary which is this month. In the league they play only for prestige - they are in the middle of the table with no prospects of changing their position. Slavia have their 1/2 semifinal for the national cup on Wednesday and it is going to be a very difficult and important game. Slavia will probably rest many players against Litex, and even if they don't, surely their mind will be entirely focused on the cup game. - H2H Litex dominate Slavia completely. They won the last five games. They won 3 out of the last 4 games in Sofia between these teams. - Slavia are a team which can always be expected to "help" teams that need points, when they themselves don't really need them. This has been happening for years and they're notorious for that. That's what happened this Tuesday - Loko Sofia needed desperately 3 points, and they got them from Slavia. Litex need a lot these three points now and I think Slavia won't have the right motivation. Litex @ 2.15 (bwin) - high stakes 2. Chernomorets - Cherno More At first sight, this would seem like a clear "under", given the history of these teams, especially Cherno More which have notorious reputation for being the unders king of the Bulgarian league. However, I really don't think so. I think that the game will be open and expect to see goals in both directions. Here are my arguments: - 3 out of the last 4 games between these two resulted in BTTS. Cherno More's team is practically the same as in those past matches, Chernomorets has got the same coach plus a few players who played in these games. So, these stat should be very representative of the match-up between these teams. - Cherno More have got new coach since the winter - Georgi Ivanov, who was a former striker of Levski Sofia. He might not be the best coach, but he is definitely a very offensive-minded manager and he is a contrast to the long-lasting tradition for Cherno More to be coached by defensive-minded specialists. This slowly starts to show up as the last two games of Cherno More were over 2.5 and all last three games produced BTTS. - The set-up of these teams conditions open game with attacks coming from both ends. Chernomorets had a very poor start but now they are in a run of two consecutive wins. Their mood is getting better, they are regaining confidence, and now they will play much more relaxed and open, trying to extend their streak. Cherno More is looking desperately for points, and draws might not be enough for them. Moreover, Chernomorets is not a top team that will frighten Cherno More and make them play for the draw. I think the visitors will respond to the open play by the home team with many attacks on their own. Another positive is that the pitch of Chernomorets is in great condition and the weather is expected to be very good. BTTS @ 2.10 (bwin) I will deliver one more tip for the game between Levski and Loko Sofia but I will wait until the full handicap lines are released.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Nevertheless, let's make up the damage with new tips: 1) Slavia - Litex Litex @ 2.15 (bwin) - high stakes 2. Chernomorets - Cherno More BTTS @ 2.10 (bwin)

Slavia - Litex 2-1 :@ Chernomorets - Cherno More 3-3 :D Sorry for Slavia-Litex, but early goal for the home team spoiled everything.