Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

[killerkim]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Still 1/2 ain't bad...any thoughts for the game tonight??

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Still 1/2 ain't bad...any thoughts for the game tonight??

The value offered is terrible. Ludogorets should win this, but 1.20 is ridiculous, given the hardships Ludogorets have in front of goal. Maybe if you feel like playing, Under 2.5 is the way to go. It's a Monday game (they tend not to be very prolific), both teams feature many unders this spring and H2H their matches were very under-sih (apart from the last one). Under 2.5 is priced at 1.95 with bet365. My call here would be 2:0 for Ludogorets, but of course, everything here only with small stakes.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

The value offered is terrible. Ludogorets should win this' date=' but 1.20 is ridiculous, given the hardships Ludogorets have in front of goal. Maybe if you feel like playing, Under 2.5 is the way to go. It's a Monday game (they tend not to be very prolific), both teams feature many unders this spring and H2H their matches were very under-sih (apart from the last one). Under 2.5 is priced at 1.95 with bet365. My call here would be 2:0 for Ludogorets, but of course, everything here only with small stakes.[/quote'] Ludogorets - Loko Plovdiv 1-0 :)

[escou]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Greetings great punter Fedar :) Maaan oh man very surprised to find you on this thread commenting on one of the most corrupt leagues in the world, not in Europe but in the world man. We very much appreciate when you put your efforts on western leagues and big games, you almost never miss, but this here is a waste of time I am telling you, except if you dont know any of the club owners in APFG ... but that is very hard too, because they change if their supporters dont vote for them on election time :D ( internal joke, maybe you dont get it, but Loko Pd's president is said to be leaving at the end of the season, because the supporters are not voting for his party) ... anyways terrible stuff all over the place here. Total waste of time for me this league. PS I am bulgarian DS.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Escou, country-mate, I have been doing quite well in the recent weeks in the "most corrupted" Bulgarian league. ;) Sometimes it is part of good punting to know in which direction a possible arrangement or fix might go. And Bulgarian league is one of the most predictable leagues, so it is certainly good value.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Time for some Bulgarian footie....My picks for tomorrow: 1) Litex - Levski I backed Litex to win the home game for the cup against Levski and rightfully so, and now I will copy my pick. 2.10 for home win is a good price and my reasons to back it are the following: - Litex showing much better football than Levski in the spring. They outplayed them twice in the cup matches and only severe referee mistakes and misfortune denied them deserved victory. - Levski missing their top striker Carvalho. The guy is actually the top scorer of the Bulgarian championship and the his alternatives are pathetic. They are two youths with no experience whatsoever plus the Portuguese striker Silva, whose performance so far has been abysmal. Levski's chances of scoring a goal diminish by 50% just because Carvalho is out. - Levski should be more tired as they played a hard mid-week cup game while Litex were resting. - The refereeing factor: in the last several weeks three referees were suspended by the Football Federation after refereeing Levski's games and giving very controversial decisions - all going in favor of Levski Sofia. This has created kind of public outrage and I feel that in the following weeks refereeing decisions won't go in Levski favor. Moreover, the referee for this game - Niki Yordanov, has some sort of reputation for being close to Litex and favoring them. Litex @ 2.10 (bet365) 2. Botev Vratsa - Chernomorets Under is an obvious bet here but is priced very low, so I will look at other options. Botev got a very big boost after winning at Plovdiv against Lokomotiv ten days ago and now they are above the relegation spots. Their morale is very high and it is extremely difficult even for top teams to beat them at their fortress in Vratsa, and Chernomorets is far from the standards of a top team. Despite Chernomorets also being on the rise, I think Botev have good chances to win this one and almost certainly won't lose at home. Botev DNB @ 1.80 (bet365) 3. Loko Pd - EtarOvers here seem like a very interesting prospect, despite Loko Plovdiv being generally very underish team. They disappointed a lot in their last home game when they lost against Botev Vratsa and generally their performance lately hasn't been good so they have a lot to make up before their supporters. On the other hand, Etar seem to have accepted their fate to be relegated and with not much tension on their shoulders they tend to play very open and attacking football, which resulted in 4 "overs" in their last 4 games and total of 19 goals scored. Their defense is still very fragile and it will surely be punished by the hosts. It is absolutely possible that Loko cover the over by themselves, but I think Etar have very decent chances to get at least a goal. Over 2.5 @ 1.75 (bet365)

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Sorry guys, a terrible weekend indeed. I also lost as I play with my money all the tips I share here. Only the over in Loko - Etar came through, the other two were failure. First, Litex-Levski was just "one of these games, one of these days". On any other day, this should have finished with a handicap win for Litex. They missed 5-6 clear chances only in the first half and received a goal in the first dangerous counter. Again, at 0:0, referee didn't give a penalty plus red card against Levski. He was then suspended from the Federation after the game. It is a big curious - this is the fourth referee only in the past month who gets a suspension after refereeing a match of Levski. Sad bookies don't offer prices on this. Here are the highlights of this game so that I can see yourself what I am talking about - http://vbox7.com/play:7befc553f5 Second, about Botev - Chernomorets, it was a bad pick and I admit it. I didn't watch the game, but I underestimated the very improving form of Chernomorets, which have profited me in the past few weeks. I hope for improvement during the weekend, when we got the big derby - CSKA-Levski. See ya then!

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Sorry guys, a terrible weekend indeed. I also lost as I play with my money all the tips I share here. Only the over in Loko - Etar came through, the other two were failure. First, Litex-Levski was just "one of these games, one of these days". On any other day, this should have finished with a handicap win for Litex. They missed 5-6 clear chances only in the first half and received a goal in the first dangerous counter. Again, at 0:0, referee didn't give a penalty plus red card against Levski. He was then suspended from the Federation after the game. It is a big curious - this is the fourth referee only in the past month who gets a suspension after refereeing a match of Levski. Sad bookies don't offer prices on this. Here are the highlights of this game so that I can see yourself what I am talking about - http://vbox7.com/play:7befc553f5 Second, about Botev - Chernomorets, it was a bad pick and I admit it. I didn't watch the game, but I underestimated the very improving form of Chernomorets, which have profited me in the past few weeks. I hope for improvement during the weekend, when we got the big derby - CSKA-Levski. See ya then!

Yeah,and this time don't bet against Levski so you won't have to apologise again

[VanGo]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Yeah' date='and this time don't bet against Levski so you won't have to apologise again[/quote'] ??? Are you kidding PFC LEVSKI is the most pushed club by the refs since ever. They are playing pathetic and they win cause of refs. So of course the value was on Litex .

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Yeah' date='and this time don't bet against Levski so you won't have to apologise again[/quote'] In fact that's precisely what I intend to do - bet against Levski. Their price for the derby is very wrong and inflated and would be a sin not to bet against them.

[Fedar]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Guys, time for another round of Bulgarian football. This time I am giving two tips in hope to improve performance after last week. 1) Levski - CSKA The big derby of Sofia and Bulgaria. Although I am not impartial here, I will analyze this entirely from a betting perspective, leaving any personal preference behind. For me, at these prices CSKA DNB is an absolute must. At the best case, these teams are absolutely equal and definitely such a huge advantage given by bookies for Levski is unfounded. Here are my arguments: - The game is played at neutral venue and there are no spectators' quotas, so no home advantage. - Both teams showed hesitant form this spring, but on overall, CSKA gained more points so far in the second half of the season. - Big likelihood that Levski will still miss their key goal-scorer Carvalho. Even if he plays, he probably won't be 100% fit.The guy scored more than one third of all Levski goals this season. CSKA have no important missings. - This is a must-win for Levski, otherwise they will practically lose any chance for the title. CSKA is not competing for the title, but for the third place and European quota. So, victory here is not an absolute necessity. In such circumstances, the psychological advantage stays with CSKA. Both teams are much better in counter-attacks than in gradual build-up. Levski having to chase the victory, means will have more ball possession and give more chances for CSKA to punish them on the break. For instance, in the last two games between CSKA and Levski, the team which was the bookie underdog and which defended and counter-attacked, won (1:0 for Levski an year ago, and 1:0 for CSKA in the autumn). - CSKA attack is going to be led by Kamburov and Platini. These guys together have scored around ten goals in Levski's net on the past years. - If we assume that the two teams are relatively equal in midfield and attack, I think that CSKA definitely have better and more experienced defense. CSKA DNB @ 2.25 (bet365) 2) Botev - Litex Two teams playing very attacking and open football, and fighting for the third place. Both teams need three points, but it is especially urgent for Litex, which lost their last two games. This should guarantee an open game with goals in both nets. BTTS @ 1.72 (bet365)

[RIOT88]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 07.05 20.00 Bulgaria APFG Beroe - Loko Sf Beroe are practically safe from relegation this year and they are thinkig for the next week cup final against lefski. I think Beroe will not take risks in this game. Beroe head coach will be on the stands for this game through suspension. Form the other side Lokomotiv are with the ssmo poitns with the first team in relegation zone (Botev Vratsa 24points ) and every game untill the end of the chapionship will be final for them, if they not want to get relegated. Loko is big team for Bulgaria and i think they will not get down. The odds are very good for me: Loko Sf DNB 2.25 bet365 Loko Sf 3.00 bet365. P.S.You can find and higher odds in other bookies.GL.

[FaNaTiK]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Ludogorets-Botev Plovdiv Ludogorets is about to lose the title this season and the only hope they have is that Slavia Sofia will not lose the game in the last round against Levski, which is quite doubtful. There are already rumors that Ludogorets will offer financial support to Slavia in case they stop Levski from winning the title which hints that they have not retreated yet. At the same time, to be able to hope for something in the last round Ludogorets needs to win at home against the good performing in the spring Botev side. At home Ludogorets have been impressive this season with 12 wins and 2 draws only and their motivation as mentioned above will be huge. Botev though is having a good season, but they already lost chance to play in the European competitions as CSKA will secure it 99% sure after winning in the last minute against Beroe. Therefore, it is doubtful that Botev will play extra motivation and passion in this game. Because of all those reasons I find the price for Ludogorets 2.00 fantastic value and will definitely take it! Ludogorets WIN @ 2.00 Sportingbet Good luck to everyone!

[Simeon Borisof]

Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13

Ludogorets-Botev Plovdiv Ludogorets is about to lose the title this season and the only hope they have is that Slavia Sofia will not lose the game in the last round against Levski, which is quite doubtful. There are already rumors that Ludogorets will offer financial support to Slavia in case they stop Levski from winning the title which hints that they have not retreated yet. At the same time, to be able to hope for something in the last round Ludogorets needs to win at home against the good performing in the spring Botev side. At home Ludogorets have been impressive this season with 12 wins and 2 draws only and their motivation as mentioned above will be huge. Botev though is having a good season, but they already lost chance to play in the European competitions as CSKA will secure it 99% sure after winning in the last minute against Beroe. Therefore, it is doubtful that Botev will play extra motivation and passion in this game. Because of all those reasons I find the price for Ludogorets 2.00 fantastic value and will definitely take it! Ludogorets WIN @ 2.00 Sportingbet Good luck to everyone!

Did you watch the interviews after the Levski-Ludogoretz game?3 out of 4 of the players who were interviwed said that given all that is happening in the bulgarian championship there is no one who believes that a miracle would happen.Every kid knows that Levski is the cahmion this year.We saw a precedent in the european football after the game.2 legs before the end of the champ,even there is a chance theoretically Slavia not to lose,our local bookmaer(euroofooball)started to pay to people who had bet on Levski to win the league.There is no doubt that there would be no motivation in Ludogoretz players.I am not saying that they won't win but the odds surely don't represent much value to me.I am going for a draw.Both teams have nothing to play for and the intrigue in the championship is pretty much over with the last leg.