Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

[McNasara]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 17 July 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Ulisses FC v Sheriff Tiraspol (16:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.25[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Tallinna FC Flora v FC Basel (16:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]10[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.38[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]HJK Helsinki v KR Reykjavik (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]13[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]PFC Neftchi v FC Zestafoni (17:00 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]F91 Dudelange v FC Red Bull Salzburg (17:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.24[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Slovan Liberec v FC Shakhter Karagandy (18:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.23[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]7.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]17.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]MŠK Žilina v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat-Shmona (18:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]The New Saints v Helsingborgs IF (19:15 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]9.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]KS Skënderbeu Korçë v Debreceni VSC (19:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Valletta v FK Partizan (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.24[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Shamrock Rovers v Ekranas (20:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 18 July 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC BATE Borisov v FK Vardar (17:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.18[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]23[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]AEL Limassol v Linfield (18:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]8.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Ludogorets Razgrad v Dinamo Zagreb (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]2.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]NK Maribor v FK Željeznicar (19:00 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]6.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FK Buducnost v Slask Wroclaw (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD] [/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Molde v FK Ventspils (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]1.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]5.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd]14.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July AEL Limassol v Linfield This has been another unfortunate draw for Linfield, the last two years they have drawn Rosenborg and BATE at this stage and lost 2-0 to both, if you go back as far as 2007 they have played 5 away ties in the CL and scored just 1 goal, even failing against the Faroe's side in the qualifying round, going through on pens. Limassol enjoyed an extraordinary season last year, winning the league after finishing 8th the season before. I have checked out their squad pretty thoroughly and they haven't lost many players from last year, they have few domestic players but seem to be very organised and to finish ahead of last years quarter finalists APOEL they are obviously a good side. The key to this bet is their defensive record, I can't actually recall seeing a better one from any team in any league! In the regular season they conceded just 7 goals in 26 games, after the league split they still only conceded 10 in 32 games. Even this pales in comparison if you just take their home record, they haven't conceded a goal for 11 games! To go back a bit further they have only conceded in 1 of the last 15 home games. This is from the Linfield website; On the injury front, there's really no change. Michael Gault (Linfield captain) is out, Philip Lowry (midfielder, seems to be first choice) remains out. Albert Watson (last seasons player of the year) remains unavailable. Steven Douglas has been troubled with back pain, probably as a direct result of playing on the 3g surface. Alan Blayney (vice-captain, gk) continues to make progress but it's gradual. Matthew Tipton is making good progress. Other than that, the players are raring to go. They know how difficult the challenge ahead of them is going to be but we're going out there to do ourselves proud and I see this as top class preparation for the season ahead, as people have got to remember that we're only just back into the swing of things. They will be defensive, that I can guarantee. Limassol are also in pre-season and have been on a tour of Poland, but the difference in quality between the squads is vast, that and Linfield are only semi-professional. Another factor is the weather, this is being played at 21:45 local time because of the heat, during the day its likely to hit 100 degrees and still be about 80 degrees when the game kicks off! This is often a problem for semi-professional sides as we have seen in the past with sides from Ireland and Wales. I haven't been hammering the handicaps on the Welsh and Irish sides this year but I'll certainly be on this one. I'm on the various clean sheet bets, their home record is extraordinary and as I said above I don't think I've ever seen a better one from a defensive point of view against far better sides than Linfield, who will pack the defence and try to hit on the break. AEL Limassol to keep a clean sheet - 1.53 - bet365 - 10 Points AEL Limassol to win to nil - 1.61 - bet365 - 10 Points AEL Limassol -2.0AH - 1.75 - betinternet - 7.5 Points AEL Limassol -2.5AH - 2.3 - betvictor - 2.5 Points AEL Limassol 2-0 - 5.5 - bet365 - 0.5 Points AEL Limassol 3-0 - 6.0 - bet365 - 0.5 Points There are better prices on clean sheet markets available on paddy power, but I can't bet with them anymore as they have virtually closed my account. It's always a bit of a risk taking the early prices when some bookies having not priced the game up, and I await the 'xxxx has win to nil at 1.8' with the usual dread! Bwin have got them at 1.4 best price on clean sheet which is a fair marker as their early prices are normally as good as they get, their prices have dropped today though from 1.5. I might put some more in if anyone prices it up daftly but these prices seem fair enough, I'm expecting a 2-0 or 3-0 margin of victory..

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Any opinion on TNS pg_yid? Know their at home and their plastic pitch can cause teams problems but Helsinborg look pretty decent? 1.5 a fair price?

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Did a quick research and several games seems to stand out: 1. Ulysses Yerevan - Sheriff Sheriff DNB @ 1.61 I don't know why the away win is priced so high and I expect it will fall by kick-off. Armenian teams performance in Europe is really poor. For the last three years their home record in Euro tournaments was 0-3-6 and they hadn't eliminated a single opponent. Only this summer they managed to pass through Faroe Islands's Streymur (after losing in the first game in F.I. by 1:3 and only managing to qualify on away goal basis) and Rudar (Montenegro). Ulysses in particular is relatively new team with little experience in Europe. They participated only twice, were eliminated in both occasions, and the only decent result they managed to get was a 0:0 draw at home vs. Bnei Iehuda from Israel. Last year they got kicked out by Ferencvaros after two defeats (0:2 and 0:3). Sheriff, on the other hand, has been showing a steady movement up the curve for the last five or so years. They by far the best and richest team in their country, attract the best talent (including many foreign players), and participate on a regular basis in Europe. They played twice in the group stages of Europa League and managed a few impressive results (e.g. eliminated Dinamo Zagreb, defeated Dynamo Kyiv and Twente). Indeed, their away form does not seem that convincing, but still I think that the class differential here is significant. However, for the sake of risk-minimazing, I would suggest taking the DNB Sheriff option at 1.61. This bet would have won 6 times, be returned 3 times, and lost 0 times in the last three years in competitions, involving Armenian teams. I would prefer this safer option for two reasons: - if they don't have the lead by the 60th minute, Sheriff might settle for a draw, having in mind that they can decide the tie at home. - Very hot weather and bad pitch conditions might limit the play of the higher class team - Sheriff. As a whole, I don't give more than 5-10% chance that Sheriff loses the game, and not more than 25-30% for a draw. Which means that if you are a more risk-prone player, the clear away victory bet is also a good option. 2. Skenderbeg (Albania) - Debreceni (Hungary) Debreceni 1.75 Another price which seems to me like a bookie's error and which I expect to drop soon (it had already gone down slightly from 1.80). Debreceni is a very experienced euro-participant, who has been dominating Hungarian football for over a decade. They are a very decent middle-class European team who managed to participate in both CL and Europa League group stages. It is interesting that they rarely have any problems at all when they play lower rank teams in the tournaments. Debreceni have several Hungarian internationals and also decent foreign players. I've little to say about the Albanian side, but the performance of Albanian teams in Europe speaks for itself, including the games from past two weeks. I myself would not give more than 1.30-1.40 to any moderately decent team to win a game away vs. any Albanian team. I am expecting that the Hungarians will easily cover a handicap here, as well, but at 1.75 for clear win, I think it is more than enough of a price for a more risk-averse player. 3. Dudelange - Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull @ 1.25 Some might call it "a mug punt", but stats don't say so - for the last ten years, Dudelange lost 9 games at home, drew 0, and won just 3 (two of them against Santa Coloma Andorra and this year against Tre Penne; the third is a seemingly prestigious victory against Danish Randers by 2:1, but after losing 1:6 in the first leg). If we don't account the victories against minnows and the one in an already decided tie, we get an abysmal home statistics, attained for the most parts against weaker teams than RB. The Austrians are affluent and good side, who, nevertheless, haven't yet made it to the group stages of the CL, despite their funding and ambitions. I think RB will take the game seriously and try to finish it quickly with a class. Handicap is also very likely here. But even a clear victory is a good bet, because the 1.25 price does not reflect in my opinion the actual chance of RB not winning this game (in my opinion - less than 5%). 4. Zilina - Ironi Kiryat Shimona Zilina @ 2.00 or Zilina DNB @ 1.50 Not much to say here, but I think that the bookies have attributed the overall good performance of few Israeli teams in Europe to an inexperienced side with just second participations in European tournaments. My observations are that experience is a crucial factor in Europe, and it could take a lot of time for Ironi Kiryat to achieve the European standards Maccabi and Hapoel Tel Aviv. I had a look in their team list and I see almost entirely Israeli-origin squad plus a player who was just bought from our local championship - Darko Tasevsky - not a bad lad, but not quite impressive. I have the feeling that Ironi Kiryat are a little accidentally in this tournament and this would be quickly and timely fixed. Zilina are one of those stable and improving Central European teams. They have in their record both CL and Europa League group stages. In my opinion they are huge favorite in this tie. Given that they are very much "win-at-home side" in their local league, I think they will try their best to decide the tie in Slovakia. 5. AEL - Linfield Hastgill has already done a perfect analysis here and I could only support his view on this game In the end, just quickly I would like to mention a few games that seem easy at first sight but could turn into banana peel slips. 1. BATE - Vardar Home win is priced at 1.12. In reality, BATE's home form for the past month has been really bad - they failed to win in their local league for the third time in a row at home. And their biggest problem lately has been scoring goals - when they manage a home-win, they rarely exceed one or two goals per game. I expect the Macedonians to be very tight in the back and looking to surprise BATE on the counter-attack. I wouldn't bet for a Vardar handicap here, because this game can go in different directions, but I think that it is risky, and I would never have priced it at 1.12 ( 1.35-1.40 looks like a more precise tag for this game to me). 2. Molde -Ventspils I don't know much about Molde, but once again, like in the case with Kiryat Shmona, I have the feeling that the bookies attach the overall success record of Norwegian club football (mainly due to Rosenborg) to a relatively inexperienced team like Molde. It is very interesting that in their last two performances in Europe (2006 and 2010) Molde faced Latvian teams. They eliminated Sconto and Jelgava with lots of difficulties. In 2006 they drew 0:0 vs. Skonto and managed to qualify after winning 2:1 in Latvia. Two years ago, they lost in Latvia by 2:1 to Jeglava, and won at home by 1:0 with a last-minute goal. To me this record does not seem like a 1.20 price. It is very likely that if Molde does not get a quick goal, the game might turn very nasty for them. 3. Slovan Liberec - Shakhtar Karagandy Teams from Kazakhstan have turned into very very tough opponents in the last few years. Shakhtar are currently the best team in the country, and the league has been playing for months already, so the team should be in perfect fitness. Slovan comes from a strong football country, but they are not amongst the traditionally best teams in Czech Republic. They had one good performance in Europe in 2006/07 when they played in the group stages of UEFA Cup, other than that, their story in Europe is usually being eliminated after one or two rounds. They are surely the favorite in this tie, but I don't think that 1.20 reflect the real class differential between the teams. I would have priced Slovan at around 1.65-1.70.

[pg_yid]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Any opinion on TNS pg_yid? Know their at home and their plastic pitch can cause teams problems but Helsinborg look pretty decent? 1.5 a fair price?

No bet for me. TNS are the best side in Wales by quite a big margin IMO. They are also full-time and have had a more extensive pre-season than the other clubs. Like you say the pitch will be also be a factor...but then again their record in Europe is very poor, they have only ever progressed past Bohemians and Cliftonville, losing all other ties. TNS are very much a plaything of their rich owner, and don't have much of a hardcore or vocal support; this weakens their home advantage. Helsingborg do look decent, but I wouldn't rule out a draw in this game. Price seems correct to me, unfortunately. Good call in the other game. Linfield go into European games with a typical British ultra-defensive attitude, and Limmasol will be eager not to concede an away goal, so I fancy the clean sheet a lot, got on at 1.5.

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July And one game that I somehow forgot to comment on: Ludogorez - Dinamo Zagreb. As a local guy, I have very deep insight on all Bulgarian teams playing in Europe. Ludogorez is often called "the Bulgarian Man City". They spend money like crazy - I think that last summer their spending exceeded the total spending of all other clubs in the league. They have brought experienced Bulgarian players and high-quality foreign players, most of them young and full of talent. They play very attacking, attractive, pass-and-move football. Having said all that, I am still shocked that the price for Dinamo is 2.78. Ludogorez, despite their class, have played only one (1!) season in the premier league of Bulgaria for all their history. Basically, over the course of two years, they jumped from third division to winning a treble of trophies this year. Of course, they never played in Europe. They are good, but I don't see how they are gonna match an experienced side with lots of CL group-phase games. The price for Dinamo should not be more than 1.80 in my view, and this is probably the biggest booking price mismatch for this round (around one whole unit).

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Just a quick update on the AEL Limassol v Linfield game I was looking at above, the manager has written a brief summary of what they have experienced so far and it hardly sounds encouraging.. "My initial update from Limassol. We arrived and touched down in Cyprus this afternoon. The heat was mightily oppressive. I remember being here a few years ago when we played Omonia Nicosia and the weather then was also incredibly hot. We had planned a training session this evening but after speaking to our doctor, Stephen Silcock, I felt that really it would be too energy sapping for the players and we then did some I suppose what you would call a form of water aerobics. If anyone thinks that was the players frolicing in the hotel pool, I can assure you that wasn't the case. We've had to adapt and change our programme pretty drastically to take allowance of the heat and if anyone thinks that Cyprus at this time of year is a lovely trip, I want to emphasise that it'll be hard work for the players in these extremely warm conditions. The hotel and the food are certainly excellent but don't anyone be thinking the players will be lying about or out enjoying themselves. They are incredibly focused on a very difficult assignment ahead. The heat is so energy sapping and the players really need to conserve as much energy as possible - there'll be quite a few rest periods for the players after training sessions to make sure they have as much energy as possible on Wednesday evening. I've said it before and I'll say it again that this is a game that's up there with Bate and Dinamo Zagreb and Rosenberg in terms of degree of difficulty and quality of the opposition. Also the conditions have got to be seen and felt to be believed. The players were perspiring in their rooms until they got the air conditioning fully going. I don't want to over dramatise the conditions by talking about the heat but it is not going to be conducive to us playing on Wednesday night. Tomorrow morning we'll do a light session indoors in the gym. We're not going to do any training outdoors in the daytime. Our first training session with the ball will be tomorrow evening at our opponents ground at 7pm local time. Hopefully it'll not be just as hot then as it is during the day." If they can barely train in the heat how do they expect to compete for 90minutes? I still think there are decent prices available on the clean sheet bets, remember Limassol haven't conceded a home goal in their last 11 matches, but in fairness this does go back to last season. Their side is pretty much the same as last season though, 1.5 for the clean sheet are fantastic odds. I've added another 10 points with bet365.

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Just to add to that, Limassol have confirmed that the kick off time has now been changed. In my first preview I said it was kicking off 9:45pm local time this was wrong it was actually 9pm local time. This has now been brought forward to 8pm local time for whatever reason, it will be about 90 degrees at kick off time which obviously doesn't help Linfield at all.

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

1. BATE - Vardar Home win is priced at 1.12. In reality, BATE's home form for the past month has been really bad - they failed to win in their local league for the third time in a row at home. And their biggest problem lately has been scoring goals - when they manage a home-win, they rarely exceed one or two goals per game. I expect the Macedonians to be very tight in the back and looking to surprise BATE on the counter-attack. I wouldn't bet for a Vardar handicap here, because this game can go in different directions, but I think that it is risky, and I would never have priced it at 1.12 ( 1.35-1.40 looks like a more precise tag for this game to me).

I had a look at this one too, and Vardar do seem to be attractive at 18.0 (currently on Betfair). BATE are from Belarussia, Vardar are from Macedonia. BATE won their league last season and are leading again this season (in progress). Vardar won their league which ended in May. Vardar are in better current form. Vardar have scored 9 and conceded 5 goals in their last 10 away league games, with 5 wins and 4 draws. BATE have won 6 and drawn 3 of their last 10 home league games, scoring 15 and conceding 8 - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/07/18/europe/uefa-champions-league/fc-bate-borisov/fk-vardar-skopje/1300267/ At a national level, Belarussia are currently ranked 71 by Fifa and Macedonia 100 - so they are fairly close. The clubs are ranked much further apart by UEFA. BATE are 68 and Vardar 403 - http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/index.html I also had a look at the latest UEFA country rankings (for 2013) - Macedonia 41 Belarussia 19 Apparently these rankings are determined by "the results of the clubs of the associations in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League games over the past five seasons" Both teams current squads seem to be made up of mainly players from their own countries - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FC_BATE_Borisov http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FK_Vardar According to Wikipedia, BATE have 7 players in the current Belarussia squad and Vardar none in the Macedonia squad (although many of the Vardar squad have caps at National or youth level). Is this difference a sign that BATE have a much better team, or are Macedonian players just more likely to play in foreign countries? BATE have much greater Champions League experience, having regularly been involved in the last few years. They have qualified for the group stages of the Champions League and the Europa League recently. Vardar have struggled in their domestic league for the last few years, and have no Champions League experience since 2003. In general, Vardar have struggled in Europe. BATE's much greater European success is probably the main reason for the gap in the odds. On the face of it, if BATE had played Vardar in the last 10 years, BATE would have won most times. But Vardar seem to be a much stronger side now than a few years ago. Overall, I think current best odds for BATE on 1.19 (Betfair) look too low. I think there is a good chance this will be a low-scoring game, perhaps a narrow BATE win or a draw. Looking at some markets, all these look good value to me - Vardar AH +2 @ 1.8 with Bet365 Vardar or Draw @ 5.25 with bwin Under 2.5 goals @ 2.62 with Paddy Power Disclosure: I have backed some of these.

[LLMB0611]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

And one game that I somehow forgot to comment on: Ludogorez - Dinamo Zagreb. As a local guy' date=' I have very deep insight on all Bulgarian teams playing in Europe. Ludogorez is often called "the Bulgarian Man City". They spend money like crazy - I think that last summer their spending exceeded the total spending of all other clubs in the league. They have brought experienced Bulgarian players and high-quality foreign players, most of them young and full of talent. They play very attacking, attractive, pass-and-move football.Having said all that, I am still shocked that the price for Dinamo is 2.78. Ludogorez, despite their class, have played only one (1!) season in the premier league of Bulgaria for all their history. Basically, over the course of two years, they jumped from third division to winning a treble of trophies this year. Of course, they never played in Europe. They are good, but I don't see how they are gonna match an experienced side with lots of CL group-phase games. The price for Dinamo should not be more than 1.80 in my view, and this is probably the biggest booking price mismatch for this round (around one whole unit).[/quote']I must say i don't agree with you on this one. I watched Ludogorets in the super cup game and they played ok. '' but I don't see how they are gonna match an experienced side with lots of CL group-phase games.'' your are very wrong on this one...dinamo waited 13 years to get to CL last season. and what a season it was. didn't win a point, got trashed by lyon 7-1 in zagreb... i think the odds are set ok, and if ludogorets will have a good home support i think they can win it easily...

[LLMB0611]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July and one more thing. dinamo had the easiest way last year to get to CL. first they played Neftchi Baku, no problem, then HJK, also no problem, and then Malmo who they easily trashed 4-1 in Zagreb, and everybody thought it's all over, and they where 2-0 down with a man down, and only a miracle and a brilliant goalkeeper Kelava saved them from not going out. and I watched a friendly this year against the same Neftchi Baku that they eliminated last year, they where 1-0 down but the rain and some crazy supporters stopped the game. i think that the whole situation in the club isn't great. some of the players want to leave, the boss Mamic want's to sell some players but can't get a good offer (Sammir), Badelj the captain didn't want to sign a new contract, some of the players will be missing..it doesn't look good for Dinamo...

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Some strange odds I'm gonna taking advantage of: Ulisses v FC Sheriff Sheriff just started the home league showing a great performance and Ulisses is stuck at the bottom of the table in Armenia. Partial covering with the AH just in case Sheriff will think to for a draw. Sheriff -0.25 @1.90 (188bet) Shamrock v Ekranas Ok, this one could look crazy for many of you but Shamrock is not showing their best football in domestic league, now standing 10 points away the 1st place. They're very good at home, for sure, but Ekranas is literally dominating in Lithuania and in previous CL round shown a great effort reaching the qual as an underdog. Probably I'll take a further look to this match for 2nd game, 'cause I feel pretty strong about a possible upset in Lithuania. Ekranas +0.5@2.20 (Pinnacle Sports)

[swindonfan]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July TNS v Helsingborg I am gonna be on Helsingborg. There are 3 teams in the Swedish Premier who have a plastic pitch so i dont see that being a big factor Helsingborg will be used to it. TNS are still selling tickets on the gate so not a great sign for one of the biggest games in your history. It wont in anyway be a hostile atmosphere for the Swedes to cope with as it might be in Eastern europe. If you look TNS preseason freindlies I am quoting from their website. "The New Saints warmed up for the game with a 1-1 draw against Nuneaton Town" "Dominant Saints dispose of Bridgnorth" "Saints prevail in Wingate and Finchley workout" They are dominant against Brignorth that is their level. Now they have to face up to the best team in Sweden. I also think they are not as good as they were 2 years ago when they beat Bohemians at that time they were dishing out 7 and 8 nils reguarly in the welsh Premier last year they even lost twice at home so i dont think they have the confidence on the plastic that they once did. Another Factor is often in a situation where a side is underdog they park the bus and have the occasional breakaway. Cefn Druids did it with good success. Sometimes it is the best way to get a result by stopping the other side playing. I dont think TNS have that in their make up they are not used to it. They rarely come up against a side better than them. And they are not used to defending for long periods. I see a comfortable win for Helsingborg but dont think it will be a thrashing.

[blackcrow]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Sheriff Tiraspol @ 2.15 sportsbet Sheriff have plenty of experience playing in the CL and expect the Moldovan side to account for the relatively inexperienced Armenian side who are missing their goalkeeper and key defender for this game. With Ulisses not travelling all that well in their domestic competition, then doubt that they will pose too many problems here

[RedDevil92]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Some strange odds I'm gonna taking advantage of: Ulisses v FC Sheriff Sheriff just started the home league showing a great performance and Ulisses is stuck at the bottom of the table in Armenia. Partial covering with the AH just in case Sheriff will think to for a draw. Sheriff -0.25 @1.90 (188bet) Shamrock v Ekranas Ok, this one could look crazy for many of you but Shamrock is not showing their best football in domestic league, now standing 10 points away the 1st place. They're very good at home, for sure, but Ekranas is literally dominating in Lithuania and in previous CL round shown a great effort reaching the qual as an underdog. Probably I'll take a further look to this match for 2nd game, 'cause I feel pretty strong about a possible upset in Lithuania. Ekranas +0.5@2.20 (Pinnacle Sports)

Ekranas has huge financial problems and their three best scorers have left the club.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Thank you Red but in my opinion financial problems are overrated in handicapping football games. I saw too many times players without a salary since months badly beating healty clubs to overestimate that part of the game. First half of Ekranas was pretty good btw.

[Kenton Schweppes]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July One or two shock results tonight non more so than Helsingborg drawing 0-0. I'm a bit annoyed at this if truth be known but I've been betting long enough to know the score. Skenderbeu and Dudelange also spring surprises but will more than likely be demolished in the second legs. All in all not a good night in the betting department.

[Privro2]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Skenderbeu and Dudelange also spring surprises but will more than likely be demolished in the second legs. All in all not a good night in the betting department.

Skenderbeu destroyed debreceni.. absolute domination. debreceni very lucky to get away with only a 1-0 loss

[LLMB0611]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Debrecen definitely lucky to get away with just 1-0, as well as Ekranas to get away with a 0-0. Shamrock missed the impossible in this game. Had some 7 or 8 clear chances in the second half to score.

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Shamrock missed the impossible in this game. Had some 7 or 8 clear chances in the second half to score.

I was half-watching the last 30 minutes, and I agree - Shamrock missed some great chances and should really have won.

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Molde v Ventspils Basically the question here is: could Molde blow out latvian club just in the first match? Solskjaer, Molde's coach, said he feels pretty confident about his team but he didn't know too much about the opponent, so he stated Molde will play for a positive result at home, included a 0-0 (considered good). Judging by his press conference I don't think Molde will be so offensive tonight (at least for the first part of the game, in which they'll try to test Ventspils' skills) and baltic teams are tough to face because of their tenacity and physical strenght. Given this I think the 60% of chances bookies are offering for Molde to win by at least 2 goals tonight are too generous. Ventspils +1.5 @2.31 (VCBet) ----- 2012/2013 FOOTBALL SEASON Bets: 2 Wins: 2 SR: 100.00% P/L: +£2.10 Yield: +105.00%

[blackcrow]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Sheriff Tiraspol @ 2.15 :D

BATE Borisov -Vardar Skopje under 2.5 @ 2.29 sportsbet Normally you would back BATE to win this tie easily as they are a far better side than Vardar when they have all of their player available, but with several key players out, especialy in midfield and up front, then scoring goals may be a problem, especially as Vardar will look to congest the midfield, and look to minimise the goal deficit when taking the game back home for the second leg. While BATE are into their season, Vardar have yet to start their's but given that loss of players, this somewhat brings Vardar more into this leg and can see this being a low scoring game AEL Limassol - Linfield under 2.5 @ 2.28 sportsbet AEL are the better side here but with the hot and humid conditions expected for this game, then doubt that either side will have the fitness to do well in this game, especially as neither side has started their season yet. Linfield are coming off drawing 0-0 in both legs in the first round of qualifying for the CL, so they do have a couple of games under their belt but lack the quality to win this over two legs. Still, they are likely to play it very defensively, given the weather conditions and look to conserve their energy for as long as possible Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.63 pinnacle Given that Dinamo made the group stages of this CL last year and look to have a similar side this year, then look to them to win over the two legs. Neither side has yet to start their domestic league matches but this leg favours the away side given that they do have some good players which are likely to be too good for them here. Going with Dinamo here to edge this as they do look to have the better side and class is likely to prevail

[godmato]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July What do you think about under 2.5 goals in Ludogorets - D Zagreb game? Both will play 4231 tactic and Ludo has no real striker on first line up.

[allthethings]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July I don't know why people get hung up on a team being professional or semi-professional. They're all footballers, they've got legs and feet and heads, all of them. There are many reasons to back the home side in any CL contest...and heat will have an effect where fitness of the players is in question...though one thing you always hear this time of year is how many teams haven't played a real match in two months, everybody's rusty, etc. Linfield have played in CL for many years now. Over the past six years, these teachers and social workers and nurses have drawn at Zagreb, Gorica and the Faroes this year. At home, they've drawn against Rosenborg, BATE and Elfsborg (and again, the Faroes this year). They've never lost by more than two goals in 18 Champions League games. Never. Four times, they lost by two goals. I'd be very hesitant to back AEL Limassol to win by a large margin. It's still 11 v 11. Whatever you think of the differences between leagues, etc., there will still be 11 Northern Ireland semipros busting their ass to get a result in this game, given that they've traveled hours and hours to play in Europe. You think they're not motivated every time they step on the field? You think Rosenborg and Dinamo Zagreb walked away from the pitch knowing they'd played a game of football? I think it highly unlikely that Linfield will score...but will AEL? AEL played 16 home games in the first division last year, and failed to score in five of them, and scored one goal in five.

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

What do you think about under 2.5 goals in Ludogorets - D Zagreb game? Both will play 4231 tactic and Ludo has no real striker on first line up.

I guess I should answer at least for Ludogorez, having watched around 15 of their last year games. First, about "the no-striker" thing - indeed, they don't utilize heavy striker. Their attack and creative midfield consists of small and technical players, something like a micro-version of Barcelona. ;-) They change positions constantly and play the typical "pass-and-move" football. Ludogorez scored a lot of goals last season, but their scores against outsiders and mediocre teams should not be indicator. In the games against top 5 teams at home, they got the following results: 1:0 vs. CSKA, 2:1 vs. Levski, 0:0 vs. Loko Pd, 1:1 vs. Litex (two late goals), 3:1 vs. Chernomorets (however, an early goal for the guests opened a lot the game). So, on overall, it seems very likely that under 2.5 will come out of this game.

[godmato]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July thank you Fedar, It is a bet for me then :)

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

BATE Borisov -Vardar Skopje under 2.5 @ 2.29 sportsbet Normally you would back BATE to win this tie easily as they are a far better side than Vardar when they have all of their player available

What makes you say this? I don't think they have ever played each other. Are top Belarussian sides better than top Macedonian sides?

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

What makes you say this? I don't think they have ever played each other. Are top Belarussian sides better than top Macedonian sides?

They are far better, mate. I don't know if Belarussian sides are stronger than Macedonian (I suppose they are a little), but to use overall level of Belarussian teams to judge the power of BATE is the same as judging Celtic/Rangers by the overall strength of the other Scottish teams. I mean BATE is a different planet in the local league. Actually I was thinking whether not to take a bet on BATE, because despite their disappointments lately, they were in a great winning streak before mid-June, and I suppose they are not in a bad shape, but just slowing down a little in the local league, given the comfortable advantage they had. I guess their motivation this evening is going to be immense, because CL is a must for this team for financial reasons and for reasons of getting competition which they barely receive in their domestic championship. Yet, the odds on BATE began to fall again,after they rose yesterday. Probably will pass this bet for now and try to catch it on live betting.

[Duboi]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

What do you think about under 2.5 goals in Ludogorets - D Zagreb game? Both will play 4231 tactic and Ludo has no real striker on first line up.

Agree, should be solid bet, it`s first game and both teams want to hold cleen sheet, like yesterday`s games showed(exept HJK and Partizan which was total walkovers). Every team wants to have chance to qlf. next round in second game so they got to be careful. If there is early away goal, then it could be real firework, but I doubt it.:ok

[Jase82]

What makes you say this? I don't think they have ever played each other. Are top Belarussian sides better than top Macedonian sides?

I always try to look at the coefficients of each league and Belarus are currently ranked 19th, while Macedonia are ranked 41st. And Vardar haven't played anything other than qualifiers since 03/04 when they were seeded into the old uefa cup and lost to Roma 5-1 over two legs.