Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July AEL Limassol-Linfield AEL -2 H'cap 6/5 b 365 I previous years linfield have been rather fortuate to keeep the score down against reasonable outfits, this year they seem to have not hit the training camp with to much effort. A draw against Bangor City and a penalty shootout win in the 1st qualifying round against Torshavan from the Faroes (which ones the pub team?) hardly indicates any reason to progress to the next stage. Their manager has been complaining about the severe heat. not surprising as he weighs about thirty stone. AEL will be keen to follow in the footsteps of their all conquering neighbours Apoel and push on towards the 1st Rd proper. I think that they will dispose of the Belfast pub team with ease, especially since they have brought the game forward and the blistering heat with it. Lump on AEL to smash Linfield.

[iamblichos]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Don´t get me wrong, mate, but based on your yesterday previews i will go for the home win for Ludogorec ;)..furthermore, Dynamo should be without Krstanovic, Leko and Simunic, and they are not insignifiacant missings

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

I don't know why people get hung up on a team being professional or semi-professional. They're all footballers, they've got legs and feet and heads, all of them. There are many reasons to back the home side in any CL contest...and heat will have an effect where fitness of the players is in question...though one thing you always hear this time of year is how many teams haven't played a real match in two months, everybody's rusty, etc. Linfield have played in CL for many years now. Over the past six years, these teachers and social workers and nurses have drawn at Zagreb, Gorica and the Faroes this year. At home, they've drawn against Rosenborg, BATE and Elfsborg (and again, the Faroes this year). They've never lost by more than two goals in 18 Champions League games. Never. Four times, they lost by two goals. I'd be very hesitant to back AEL Limassol to win by a large margin. It's still 11 v 11. Whatever you think of the differences between leagues, etc., there will still be 11 Northern Ireland semipros busting their ass to get a result in this game, given that they've traveled hours and hours to play in Europe. You think they're not motivated every time they step on the field? You think Rosenborg and Dinamo Zagreb walked away from the pitch knowing they'd played a game of football? I think it highly unlikely that Linfield will score...but will AEL? AEL played 16 home games in the first division last year, and failed to score in five of them, and scored one goal in five.

There are many factors to consider whenever you make a bet on a match, they have a poor away record in Europe whatever you say, they drew away in Zagreb but that is probably their only notable result certainly recently away, and I don't think a draw away with a side from the Faroe Islands helps your point! I certainly wouldn't be playing these handicaps if Linfield were at home but fact is they ain't. They have key players out, they haven't been able to train properly because of the heat, both teams are in pre-season but there is a difference between being semi-professional and being professional, namely fitness levels and technique. AEL's should be way better on both counts, this is their first game in Europe for a long time which I'm not happy about but all other factors make sense betting wise to me. I refer back to a previous game similar to this one, Maccabi Haifa v Glentoran a few years ago, I had massive sums on it but in the first half Glentoran stood up well, they had no chances but limited Maccabi's and went in 1-0 down. In the second half they began to tire massively in the heat and humidity and in the end were fortunate to lose by just the 6. I don't think this game will be as one sided as that but fitness levels between semi pro and pro do make a difference. The clean sheet bets stand up to any scrutiny, conceding in only 1 of 15 games and playing part-timers makes it a no-brainer. I need them to win 2-0 really at least, 2-0 would put me up a considerable amount, but whatever happens I'm happy with the play and the handicaps make sense to me..too late now anyway, what will be will be..

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July Anyone got a link for the AEL v Linfield game!? If I have to watch the rest of the game with the live updates on UEFA website I'm likely to blow my brains out..

[allthethings]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July As I only had an opinion and didn't actually put any money on it, I'm happy to see the game is unfolding as you envisioned, Hastgill

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Anyone got a link for the AEL v Linfield game!? If I have to watch the rest of the game with the live updates on UEFA website I'm likely to blow my brains out..

No live stream, mate. I know how it feels - I am following it on bet365, and whenever the marker shows "dangerous attack Linfield" my heart goes in my pants (I took the clean sheet bet).

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

No live stream' date=' mate. I know how it feels - I am following it on bet365, and whenever the marker shows "dangerous attack Linfield" my heart goes in my pants (I took the clean sheet bet).[/quote'] I almost went to the extents of registering on the Linfield forum to see if they had a link, but I think I would have found it elsewhere on the net if there was one..going to plan so far, in theory Linfield should tire more as the game goes on but it doesn't always work like that. It's a bugger for me as even if they go 8-0 up one Linfield goal kills me! Back to the wonderful bet365 updates with a bit of UEFA.com on the side! :(

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July How the hell did BATE turn that one round? they were 2-1 down after 91mins and end up winning 3-2!

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

They are far better' date=' mate. I don't know if Belarussian sides are stronger than Macedonian (I suppose they are a little), but to use overall level of Belarussian teams to judge the power of BATE is the same as judging Celtic/Rangers by the overall strength of the other Scottish teams. I mean BATE is a different planet in the local league. Actually I was thinking whether not to take a bet on BATE, because despite their disappointments lately, they were in a great winning streak before mid-June, and I suppose they are not in a bad shape, but just slowing down a little in the local league, given the comfortable advantage they had. I guess their motivation this evening is going to be immense, because CL is a must for this team for financial reasons and for reasons of getting competition which they barely receive in their domestic championship. Yet, the odds on BATE began to fall again,after they rose yesterday. Probably will pass this bet for now and try to catch it on live betting.[/quote'] You talked about BATE but not about Vardar - so I still don't know you can say that BATE are a 'far better' side. Just because one side is dominant in their country and highly-motivated doesn't mean they will necessarily beat an opponent from another country.

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

I always try to look at the coefficients of each league and Belarus are currently ranked 19th' date=' while Macedonia are ranked 41st. And Vardar haven't played anything other than qualifiers since 03/04 when they were seeded into the old uefa cup and lost to Roma 5-1 over two legs.[/quote'] Yes, I saw those stats when I researched it yesterday. Belarussian sides have done better in Europe than Macedonian sides in the last few years - I think that's how UEFA calculate the rankings. But these stats are looking at the past, not the present, and are looking at the average among all clubs in European competition, so at best they are only a guide to the relative European performance of clubs from two countries.

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

going to plan so far' date=' in theory Linfield should tire more as the game goes on but it doesn't always work like that. It's a bugger for me as even if they go 8-0 up one Linfield goal kills me! Back to the wonderful bet365 updates with a bit of UEFA.com on the side! :([/quote'] That's the problem with clean sheet bets - one goal and you're out. I try to avoid them - but have backed this too as it looked good value. I find it's better for my health if I concentrate on something else while the match is on - much easier said than done though ...

[HastGill1]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

AEL Limassol v Linfield AEL Limassol to keep a clean sheet - 1.53 - bet365 - 10 Points :cow AEL Limassol to win to nil - 1.61 - bet365 - 10 Points :cow AEL Limassol -2.0AH - 1.75 - betinternet - 7.5 Points :cow AEL Limassol -2.5AH - 2.3 - betvictor - 2.5 Points :cow AEL Limassol 2-0 - 5.5 - bet365 - 0.5 Points AEL Limassol 3-0 - 6.0 - bet365 - 0.5 Points :cow

If they can barely train in the heat how do they expect to compete for 90minutes? I still think there are decent prices available on the clean sheet bets, remember Limassol haven't conceded a home goal in their last 11 matches, but in fairness this does go back to last season. Their side is pretty much the same as last season though, 1.5 for the clean sheet are fantastic odds. I've added another 10 points with >Bet365. :cow

Such a good night I'll even give the dancing cow a rare outing :lol..by the looks of the commentary on the Linfield site they were outclassed and lucky to come away with just a 3 goal defeat. As Fedar said on the previous page though if you can't get a stream, watching the 'linfield - attack' 'linfield - DANGEROUS ATTACK' come up on the bet365 website is absolute torture to watch my heart rate must have been through the roof..I had too much on the game in truth, but it seemed a good opportunity and it panned out ok. I'm off to sit in a dark room with a beer..

[Duboi]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Such a good night I'll even give the dancing cow a rare outing :lol..by the looks of the commentary on the Linfield site they were outclassed and lucky to come away with just a 3 goal defeat. As Fedar said on the previous page though if you can't get a stream' date=' watching the 'linfield - attack' 'linfield - DANGEROUS ATTACK' come up on the bet365 website is absolute torture to watch my heart rate must have been through the roof..I had too much on the game in truth, but it seemed a good opportunity and it panned out ok. I'm off to sit in a dark room with a beer..[/quote'] Well done!:clap If every night would be like this...lol

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

You talked about BATE but not about Vardar - so I still don't know you can say that BATE are a 'far better' side. Just because one side is dominant in their country and highly-motivated doesn't mean they will necessarily beat an opponent from another country.

Well, I don't know much about Vardar. But I think that BATE are far better than any Macedonian team because they participated both in CL (twice) and Europa League, and had some memorable results, especially at their stadium in Belarus, where some serious teams surrendered. No Macedonian team can brag with such results. No Macedonian team had ever played in any group phase. Vardar's last participation in CL qualifications was about a decade ago. I checked their team and transfer list and I did not see them having made many expensive transfers and having many foreign players and/or internationals. So, it must most probably mean that they are not expected to exceed much the overall level of Macedonian teams from past years. Anyway, this game looked quite strange to me. Five goals, two turn-arounds, two goals in the last minute, a Macedonian and a Belarussian team...In a weird way it reminded me about Sarajevo - Hibernian games from last two weeks.

[Fedar]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July A little recap: Ulysses Yerevan - Sheriff Sheriff DNB @ 1.61 :) Skenderbeg (Albania) - Debreceni (Hungary) Debreceni 1.75 :( Zilina - Ironi Kiryat Shimona Zilina @ 2.00 or Zilina DNB @ 1.50 :loon AEL - Linfield AEL Clean Sheet :beer Dudelange - Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull @ 1.25 :cry:wall In sum, would have been very good round, if it wasn't for those Austrian idiots. Now, I am about even. Hope at least they will pay back next week.

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Well, I don't know much about Vardar. But I think that BATE are far better than any Macedonian team because they participated both in CL (twice) and Europa League, and had some memorable results, especially at their stadium in Belarus, where some serious teams surrendered. No Macedonian team can brag with such results. No Macedonian team had ever played in any group phase. Vardar's last participation in CL qualifications was about a decade ago. I checked their team and transfer list and I did not see them having made many expensive transfers and having many foreign players and/or internationals. So, it must most probably mean that they are not expected to exceed much the overall level of Macedonian teams from past years. Anyway, this game looked quite strange to me. Five goals, two turn-arounds, two goals in the last minute, a Macedonian and a Belarussian team...In a weird way it reminded me about Sarajevo - Hibernian games from last two weeks.

Yes, two turnarounds, the game ending 3-2 to BATE. Like the AEL Limassol game, I was unable to find a way of watching this, but did follow the in-play stats. It looked as though BATE had the better of the game, but didn't completely dominate (shots/corners etc). I think your original comment was probably accurate - that BATE's odds were too short at around 1.12.

[Jase82]

Yes' date=' I saw those stats when I researched it yesterday. Belarussian sides have done better in Europe than Macedonian sides in the last few years - I think that's how UEFA calculate the rankings. But these stats are looking at the past, not the present, and are looking at the average among all clubs in European competition, so at best they are only a guide to the relative European performance of clubs from two countries.[/quote'] I thought the rankings were relevant where BATE were concerned tbh as they're the main contributor to the Belarus rankings, and I personally see these coefficient rankings as vital, coupled with past historic results in determining an outcome, where very little else information wise is widely available. That's just the way I've looked at things year on year.

[MPLouis]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Such a good night I'll even give the dancing cow a rare outing :lol..by the looks of the commentary on the Linfield site they were outclassed and lucky to come away with just a 3 goal defeat. As Fedar said on the previous page though if you can't get a stream' date=' watching the 'linfield - attack' 'linfield - DANGEROUS ATTACK' come up on the bet365 website is absolute torture to watch my heart rate must have been through the roof..I had too much on the game in truth, but it seemed a good opportunity and it panned out ok. I'm off to sit in a dark room with a beer..[/quote'] Congratulations HG :ok (I think the stats said that Linfield had no shots on target, which obviously increased your chances)

[FedericoBTH]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July It took more than an hour to Molde to find out a way to opponent's net but then they had a very solid performance and almost closed up the qual. I ended the CL round with 2W 1L and a little more than 1u profit. These were my first bets of the season... Hope to collect some joy with you this year guys, goodnight to everyone!

[pg_yid]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

Such a good night I'll even give the dancing cow a rare outing :lol..by the looks of the commentary on the Linfield site they were outclassed and lucky to come away with just a 3 goal defeat. As Fedar said on the previous page though if you can't get a stream' date=' watching the 'linfield - attack' 'linfield - DANGEROUS ATTACK' come up on the bet365 website is absolute torture to watch my heart rate must have been through the roof..I had too much on the game in truth, but it seemed a good opportunity and it panned out ok. I'm off to sit in a dark room with a beer..[/quote'] lol well done mate, beers are on you tonight. I didn't watch this one closely but I know what you mean about the 'dangerous attack' and its evil sibling, the 'dangerous free kick', in all honesty most of the time they're probably launching another hopeless ball forward to their one man up front, who can't even get near to it let alone hold it up or find a team mate!

[blackcrow]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

BATE Borisov -Vardar Skopje under 2.5 @ 2.29 :( AEL Limassol - Linfield under 2.5 @ 2.28 :( Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.63:(

No good

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Second qualifying round, 1st leg > 17-18 July

AEL Limassol-Linfield AEL -2 H'cap 6/5 b 365 I previous years linfield have been rather fortuate to keeep the score down against reasonable outfits, this year they seem to have not hit the training camp with to much effort. A draw against Bangor City and a penalty shootout win in the 1st qualifying round against Torshavan from the Faroes (which ones the pub team?) hardly indicates any reason to progress to the next stage. Their manager has been complaining about the severe heat. not surprising as he weighs about thirty stone. AEL will be keen to follow in the footsteps of their all conquering neighbours Apoel and push on towards the 1st Rd proper. I think that they will dispose of the Belfast pub team with ease, especially since they have brought the game forward and the blistering heat with it. Lump on AEL to smash Linfield.

:nana :nana