NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 5.10 at Bath - 2m1f Going for a back to lay here on Lucky Diva. All on Betfair. Back for 75 points back at 5.5 on Betfair, Lay for 75 points at 2.82. Lay again for 100 points at 1.55. The horse has a lot of ability and should go well, his quirky nature is the thing most likely to let him down, 1st time blinkers here may or may not assist but hoping to be in for an either way profit whatever happens. He is tried and tested at the ground, the trip and the course. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Was speaking rubbish re Lucky Diva having 1st time blinkers, had cheekpieces as usual - the lays were not required either he won with a bit to spare. Ended up with 139.98 point profit on the race. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Last bet of the day, lack of ambition but going for 100 points in the Betfair place market on Saint Boniface at 1.63. Should like the ground and be good enough to hit the places here - made his effort too early LTO. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Saint Boniface was very disappointing as was Iffraij who raced with him LTO. Both horses raced similar to their last efforts. Saint Boniface made progress looking comfortable and found nothing. Iffraij lead and faded quickly. All that has led to a loss - 1. Lost 90 points on Silent laughter 2. Lost 90 points on Tonle Sap 3. Won 94.06 points overall with win on Annie's Rocket and loss on Sarangoo. Annie's Rocket won (at 13.31) but didn't back it in the win market! 4. Won 139.98 on Lucky Diva 5. Lost 100 points on Saint Boniface. Overall 45.96 point loss. Bank now 1868.76 (+868.76) NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 19.45 at Kempton - 8f 50 points on Alerted on the Betfair place market at 2.06. She showed promise on debut on turf and should be a fair bit better on A/W based on pedigree. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.45 Kempton - 6f 25 points on Shifting Star at 5.1 or take Betfair SP at the off. Outsider of the field - has showed promise, then disappointed for a while but LTO again looked promising. At the prices is worth a shot. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Should have said - the bet on Shifting Star is on the place market. Matched at 5.1 NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 2 losers so far tonight. Shifting Star may some progress near the end but never in danger of collecting. Last bet of the night - 75 points on Etikaan in Betfair Place market at 2.48. Came back off an 8 week break and came 2nd on soft ground LTO. He has never raced on the A/W but should be slightly better suited to the A/W than soft ground. LTO he was in the lead for a fair way and appears to perhaps have went a bit quick a bit early as the winner and 3rd both came from further back. Despite that he stayed on pretty well and was a fair bit ahead of the 3rd. This time he is drawn 1 and has Luke Morris on board - which is always an advantage on the A/W. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Etikaan another loser - had every chance in the straight but the 3 year olds in the field filled the places. 150 points down on the night - been going in the wrong direction lately. Bank now 1718.76 (+718.76) NGS

[stewartd14]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

Hi Stewartd14, I always follow the results and their the only team I have but not a hardcore fan. Was at Pittodrie for a first time in a few years for the Neil Simpson testimonial, but that was mainly to chum along a pal who is a season ticket holder. Hope you haven't been backing them blind for the last 20 years! NGS

Haha, shrewd move. A bit of a rollercoaster recently from the highs of Europe to the disaster under Mcgoo and the struggle under Pa Broon ! Backing the draw every week would yield the profits I'm sure ! Unlucky today - fingers crossed it picks up again tomorrow. :ok

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Cheers Stewartd14. Up the Dons! Whatever happens "The Rangers" results must keep you smiling. ;) 19.40 at Kempton - 2m A lot will depend on how the race is run. I'm going with 50 points in the Betfair Place market on Mahayogin in the hope that someone (if necessary Richard Hughes on my selection) make a decent race of it. I am not too impressed by those at the top of the market. Mahayogin is being tried up in trip and good chance it will suit on pedigree. LTO at a shorter trip he raced wide and was still going strong at the finish. If it turns into a sprint finish I think I'm doomed! I was also tempted by Burnbrake coming back after a long break but decided to go with Mahayogin. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Got matched at 3.55 whilst writing the post. Price now a bit shorter. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Price on Burnbrake in the Betfair place market is now 21 - worth 10 points in the place market! NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.10 at Kempton - 1m Going for 2 here in the place market - 50 points each on Burj Alzain at 4.6 and I Love me at 2.52. Both seem to me to be overpriced. I love me making debut on A/W but should go well on it. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Burj Alzain got 3rd, I love me came 5th. In the earlier race my selections came 5th and 7th (of 12). Both race well enough and a fast pace might have seen them do even better. 20.40 at Kempton - 8f 50 e/w at Corals on Kinglami - has won or placed in his last 3 efforts, all of which have been at Kempton. Races off same mark as LTO when raced wide-ish and was finishing well over 6f. The extra distance here looks like it will suit him perfectly. Would be surprised if he doesn't run a big race. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Sorry, the price I got was 6.0. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Not got money on it but Almaas should also go well. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Feeling a bit unlucky - Kinglami had the ability but was asked to come from too far back. Ultimately finished about 1/2 a length behind the 3rd and just over a length and a half behind the winner. :cry Almaas was poor. 21.10 at Kempton - 6f Will need a bit of luck here. Going with 75 points on Darnethean at 3.3 on the Betfair Place market (or take the SP at the off) and 25 points on the same horse in the win market at 13 in the win market (or take the Betfair SP at the off). On top form this horse could win with a good bit to spare. LTO at 8f he showed some ability for the 1st time in a few runs - hoping that improvement will continue over and C and D he has done well at in the past. Just checked price is shortening considerably and my bets have not been matched so took 2.94 for the place and 11.5 for the win but is perhaps going fast. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Darnathean was given every chance, led but was overtaken in the straight and ultimately finished 5th. Another disappointing day! Think I bet too much on the last race in the hope of a big finish, it was a fairly speculative bet and not worth maximum stakes! 60 points down (in total) on Mahayogin and Burn Break 122.44 up (in total) on Binj Alzain and I Love me. 100 points down on Kinglami 100 points down on Darnathean That makes 137.56 down on the day. Bank now 1581.20 (+581.20) - Haemorrhaging money at the moment - some bad decisions and a little bit of bad luck. Onwards and upwards. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 3.25pm at Ayr - 1m 50 e/w at 6.0 with Skybet on Lord Aeryn Has good record at the track, has showed recent form - only 2lengths behind the winner last time and I think (or maybe just hope) he will be better suited to heavy ground than the firmer ground he has raced on recently. He should finish in the frame. No money on it either way but for the record on this ground I don't like Take it to the Max despite the fact he has received a fair bit of support. NGS NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Lord Aeryn came 3rd - broke even on that bet. 20.00 at Wolves - 50 e/w on Amethyst Dawn at 5.0 at Skybet Horse dropped a long way in the weights and then changed yards. Judged on last 2 performances that brought about significant improvement and still a long way below his best performances. Was 2nd over C and D last time when he was a reasonable distance ahead of 3rd. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Amethyst Dawn ran well enough, took a longish way round and possibly used up a bit too much petrol early but came 2nd - 100 point bet returned 90 points. 21.00 50 points each way - again at Skybet - on Warden Bond. Price looks too good to be true and maybe it is! Horse has won or placed 11 times in 19 runs on the A/W and his record at Wolves is even better - won or placed in 7 of 8 efforts. His turf form on the other hand is very poor - once placed from 12 runs. 8 days ago the horse won an apprentice races by 3 lengths and races off the same mark today. He has raced off this mark several times before and hit the places. The draw is not great but last time he was drawn better but still ended up wide-ish Slightly worried why the horse is as big a price as it is but will see what happens. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Sorry forgot to say - got 7.0 on the horse.

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Warden bond had every chance and got good trip but ultimately came 5th is a bunch finish. 110 points down on the day - bank now 1471.20. Time to start working harder or getting luckier! NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules I decided I would study really hard and try to solve the 14.20 at Ayr - The Silver Cup. Its devilishly difficult with a lot of horses having reasons to think they may improve. I've gone with Hamza 50 points each way on Hamza at 17.0 with Ladbrokes. Hamza ran a very good race LTO to come 2nd, battling all the way and just beaten by Heera. Based on Timeform figures that was a very good performance. My biggest concern is that that race and taken too much out of him certainly he was all out at the finish. Hamza has run his 2 most impressive performances in his last 2 runs, both were on Firm ground. This time the ground is said to be heavy. I think that is causing a lot of people to disregard the horse. However ....... based on his pedigree I think softer ground should suit his fine and indeed he should be better on it than on firm. There are also reasons for saying that his form as a 2yr old backs that up. Connections presumably think he is worth a shot in the conditions. Furthermore .... I am wondering whether the ground really is heavy. I looked at the going stick readings and compared them with historical readings from the course (all on the BHA website) and suspect it is more like proper soft ground 1st thing this morning (told you I studying hard!) the weather in Ayr has been decent today so should be slowly but surely drying out. Basically if my tin pot theory :D is any good it could be something like Soft, Good to soft in places rather than proper heavy ground. Can't really discern any consist draw bias at Ayr when the good is at the soft end of the spectrum. In the big field race yesterday they ended up in the middle of the course. Drawn 6 is possibly not a bad draw as it should give options to race down the centre or the far side - especially given the horse is a front runner and so should have a clear path. I fancied loads in the race to be honest (the only one in the top third of the betting I didn't like was Amadeus Wolf Tone!) but settled on Hamza. Highland Colori was my 2nd choice but no money on it. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Hamza was ultimately well backed - going off at 10.0 (I backed it at 17.0). Then lead a long way (as is his style) ...... and then faded near the finish as others came flooding past. He ultimately came 6th. The one I didn't like - Amadeus Wolf Tone came 13th and the horse I nearly backed but didn't (Highland Colori) came 2nd. The ground at Ayr was changed to Heavy, soft in places. Encouraging but not profitable! :cry NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 15.30 at Ayr - the Gold Cup - 6f Trying my luck with Waffle - 50 points each way at 17.0 with William Hill (paying 5 places). Horse has been unlucky in his last 2 runs. The ground may well be too soft for him and his best form of the season may be behind him but even allowing for that with a clear run I could see him finishing in the places and if those concerns are not justified you never know... NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Waffle went off at 15.0 but was poor - finished 21st. Should have seen that coming! NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Have lost loads of my bank in last week. It is now down to 1271.20. On the plus that is still in profit - looking for positives Back for more punishment. 15.50 at Hamilton My money is on Economic Crisis - 50 points on betfair win market at 8.4 and 50 points on the Betfair win market at whatever I can get or take the Betfair SP at the off. Has done well on soft before and then kept that form on much better ground. Both sides of the pedigree suggest he may be better on soft ground so I think he may actually have improved and will step forward again back to favourable conditions. If nothing else he appears to be very consistent so hopefully the place money will be safe. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Matched at 2.94 in place market