NGS Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Steering clear of Ascot - prefer the handicaps 16.40 at Thirsk £30 on win market and £30 on place market, both on Betfair, at 8.2 or take SP at the off on the win market and 2.72 or take Betfair SP at the off on the place market. Thinking behind bet - Apparently disappointing on last 4 runs, was 4/6 last time out off a break but only beaten just over a length. The trainers horses normally come on for their 2nd run off a break and the ground didn't suit last time. Would have preferred the ground today to be softer but still an improvement on last time. Not well handicapped as such but should be capable off the current mark. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules OOOps. I just realised I named the race of my last bet, described the horse by reference to its recent performances but didn't actually name him. I'm an idiot! :spank For the record the horse was Emerald Spirit and it won. I think I'm entitled to include it in my figures as although I didn't actually name the horse it could have been identified by my reasons for backing it. For example it was the only one in the field who was 4/6 last time. Both bets got matched prior to the off so won 206.06 on the win bet and 49.22 on the place bet. Back to profit! Bank now 1197.41 (+197.41) NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules OOOps. I just realised I named the race of my last bet, described the horse by reference to its recent performances but didn't actually name him. I'm an idiot! :spank For the record the horse was Emerald Spirit and it won. I think I'm entitled to include it in my figures as although I didn't actually name the horse it could have been identified by my reasons for backing it. For example it was the only one in the field who was 4/6 last time. Both bets got matched prior to the off so won 206.06 on the win bet and 49.22 on the place bet. Back to profit! Bank now 1197.41 (+197.41) NGS :rollin I'm just releaved that you weren't writing out a slip in your local betting shop!! Well Done.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Cheers The Saint One more bet tonight. Speculative one. 21.00 at Brighton 10 each way on Sottovoce with Skybet at 20/1 Thinking - Horse has fallen a fair bit in the weights and has a decent draw. He has never really performed on turf but on pedigree he shouldn't be that much better on Polytrack than turf. The ground should suit. 20/1 is too high a price a think. He's as low as 10/1 with some firms. N.B. The price is now 16/1 with Skybet but can still get 20/1 with Totesport. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Sottovoce finished 5/7 - 20 point loss. Bank now 1177.41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 14.55 at Hamilton - 50 points on Julius Geezer at 3.45 on Betfair in the win market. My Thinking - He is still a long way off lowest mark, won with a bit to spare last time having appeared to race on the slowest part of the track. Now has a good 5lb claimer on board. Sovereign Street may be the danger. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Very disappointed with Julius Geezer - it drifted in the market and came home 4th. Honesty couldn't see him being out of the places. On the plus side instead of backing it I almost laid the winner! Sovereign Street came 2nd. 20.20 at Ripon 40 points on Profile Star in the place market on Betfair at 2.30. There are negatives with this horse - had good draw last time and poor draw this time. However, not much else appeals, many of the other horses in the field would like it softer whereas the drying ground will assist this horse. The Sire also has good stats at the track. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Profile Star ran no race. One last bet for the night. 20.10 at Kempton - Mezzotint Win and Place on Betfair - 40 points in place market at 2.02 and 25 points on win market at 6.6 Disappointed last time on soft ground. Now back to all weather and on pedigree should prefer the A/W and would have particularly disliked soft ground. Profit to be had by backing the trainers horses blind on the A/W and even more so with his 3 year olds. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Mezzotint came 2nd - beaten by a head. Which means a profit of 13.78 on that race. However, lost 50 on Julius Geezer and 40 on Profile Star so 76.22 down on the day. Bank now 1101.29 NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Decided to tackle an Ascot handicap 16.25 at Ascot 20 points e/w on Desert law at 16/1 and a further 20 points on the Betfair place market at 5.0 Thinking - Drawn 3 - could be an advantage based on BHA going stick readings. Has C and D form off his current mark 2/10 - that was on Good to soft ground. Last time out 2/20 at the Epsom Dash on Good to firm - longer trip may suit change in ground ought not to be a disadvantage. That was off 97 - the same mark as he goes off today. Seems like a good bet to me. Not the reason why a backed it but I see on the Sporting life website a tipster with +23 profit for the season to £1 level stakes also likes the horse. Staying with the low draw I also like High Standing but don't think I'll back it. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 14.55 at Ayr 30 points at 3.6 on Ardmay in the Betfair place market. Thinking - Won last time despite wide trip and may be better suited to the ground this time than last time, has a decent draw. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 14.55 at Ayr - Ardmay won well - disappointed I didn't back him in the win market now! Shouldn't grumble - 74.41 up on that race. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Desert Law very disappointing. A another speculative bet - Lingfield 19.35 10 point win and 10 point place on Betfair on Aurens. Anything could happen with this horse. He has lined up to race 4 times. In those 4 runs, he once refused to race, once jockey fell off when he was 2 lengths clear. Worth a shot at a bit price. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Got 60.0 in the win market and 8.0 in the place on Aurens. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Aurens had a horrendous start - as he tends to - and then finished 5th. But for the start would have finished in the places but to be fair his lack of ability to start was part of the explanation for his high price. Next Bet Lingfield 20.05 - Miss Polly Plum - 40 points in the place market at 3.55 and 10 points in the win market at 13.5. Thinking behind bet - Has performed off higher marks and won at C and D. Was 9/12 last time at Southwell in March but on pedigree was never likely to impress at than course. Has a favourable draw this time ............ and I like the name! NGS NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Miss Poly Plum came 4th. Went off at 9 in the win market though. Next Bet - Haydock 20.50 Lay of Dolphin Rock - lay of 45 points at 3.0 in the win market. Horse is more than capable of winning this. But price seems overly based on fact he was 3/17 last time - when he had a favourable draw. He shouldn't be this low I think. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Dolphin rock came 4th - 42.93 point win on that - pity I wasn't brave enough to lay it in the place market! So won money on Ardmay and Dolphin Rock - lost out on Desert law, Aurens and Miss Poly Plum - Overall 12.66 down on the day but happy enough with my selections. Bank now 1088.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Pontefract - 14.40 Lay of Silly Gilly in the win market on Betfair - 20 point lay at 5.6 in Betfair place market (liability 92 points). The horse is now 8 years old - it has never won or placed off this high a mark. That mark has come about as a result of good performances (but not wins) on good to firm. She has finished in the places 13 times in 24 runs on good to soft. On Soft or heavy she has only been in the places once in 11 runs. Added to that she has a poor record for getting her head in front - won 5 times in 78 runs, been 2nd 14 times and 3rd 13 times. My only worry is that current form may be down to her being in foal which could lead to best ever performances but couldn't find anything online to suggest that is the case. Therefore I consider her to be a very unworthy favourite. One other bet for me in the same race - Tote trifecta - Wiseman's Diamond, Hawaiian Storm, Lady Advocate and Whatsofunny in any order. 24 lines at 0.25 a line - costs me 6 points NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Silly Gilly came 4th. 19.08 profit on that. My stab at the trifecta was hopeless - all my selections were at the wrong end of a pace bias - the front runners all went off too fast and those at the rear came through. Not one horse in the places so 6 point loss there. 13.08 up on the day. Was 12.66 down on yesterday so 0.42 profit for my weekends work! Bank now 1101.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 4.30 at Chepstow Have laid FredericktheGreat on the Betfair win market, Laid 24 points at 4.1 (Liability 74.40). Horse has now drifted to 5.0 which could still be a reasonable lay. Thinking. Disappointed last time and on pedigree he is much less well suited to the current conditions. Whilst his last run was his 1st run of the season that isn't normally a problem for his trainer. The biggest worry is whether he might improve for the drop in trip. But all in all happy to lay him against a solid favourite in Rocky Reef. Not backing it but fancy the outsider Bajan Hero to maybe sneak a place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Frederickthegreat went off 5.5 on the Betfair market and came home 5/5 - successful lay. Again should have been braver and laid the place. For the record Bajan Hero did get 2nd. 19.08 profit on that. Will look for some bets tonight. Maybe some in running plays - not as reliable but a bit easier to find that proper bets. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 18.50 at Thirsk Backed Mohawk Ridge 25 points at 5.5. in the win market. With an in play bet Lay at 2.22 in the win market for 45 points - Keep bet in play. If he hits that price i'll make a profit either way. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Both bets matched - Mohawk Ridge traded at 1.20 and then got well beat. 19.08 point profit on that. Next In Play Bet - Kilbeggan 19.30 - Lay 10 points on Kalico Kim in the Betfair win market, with an in play bet backing her 7 points at 15.0 and a further in play bet 2 points at 55. If she wins without trading high I'll be 70 points down! NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Kalico kim went off at 5.68 after I laid it at 8 - then traded at 13 and won. 70 point loss. Right idea that went wrong in the execution! NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.20 Thirk In Play Lay of Tobrato for 30 points at 2.30 on Betfair. Keep bet in Play NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Foiled again - Tobrata hit 2.54 (so bet was unmatched) and then finished 4th! NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.40 at Windsor Mizbah - Back in win market 25 points at 9.2, Lay bet (keep in play) of 25 points at 5.8 and lay bet (keep in play) 25 points at 2.52 Gabrial's King - Lay 100 points at 1.21 NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.50 Borderlessscot - Lay 35 points at 1.97 and an in play bet backing it at 3.2 for 31 points. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Borderlessscot - came 2nd - 3.82 point profit on that. Was a bit fortunate with Mizbah - he hit 5.0 in the run despite being behind a wall of horses so broke even on that one. 21.00 at Kilbeggan Lay Canaly at 3.65 on Betfair for 25 points pre-race and back in running (Keep bet in play) 20 points at 5.3 and another 2 points at 11.5. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Canaly got beat so all bets matched on that and 2.86 point profit. For avoidance of doubt Gabrial's King never seriously threatened so the 1.21 went unmatched in the 20.40 at Windsor. -25.16 on the day. Bank now 1076.11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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