NGS Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 19.40 at Bath 50 points on Red Senor in the Betfair place market at 2.71. Thinking - Sire is very good going uphill on softish ground. So far he has largely raced on flat tracks. The horse has some respectable (but unspectacular form) and there isn't too much startling competition. NGS NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 19.50 at Kempton 50 points on Black Bacara in Betfair Place market at 4.0 - simply think it is too high a price. Has never won at 6f but has finished in the places in 9 out of 16 races. Decent recent form. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.50 at Kempton Backed Sand Skier - 50 points in the Betfair place market at 2.24. Wouldn't trust it to win but very good recent record. Only bad recent run was on the turf which was less likely to suit. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 1st two bets lost, the 3rd won - sand skier coming 3rd. Overall loss on the day of 40.85 Bank now 1035.26. Must do better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Chester 16.15 Really like the favourite Diman Waters 50 point win and 50 point place on Betfair at 6.2 and 2.44 respectively. Thinking - Very good record at track, plum draw, jockey very good at the track and good recent form - not favoured by the draw last time. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Diman waters didn't get the best position but finished well to come 3rd. So overall 22.08 points up. Bank now 1057.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Sandown 14.40 25 points on place market at 5.2 on Switzerland. Should be there or there abouts. I don't think the draw (high) will be a negative in this ground. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Switzerland drifted significantly, got poor start and never really involved. Next Bet 3.45 Sandown 100 points on Nathanial on Betfair place market at 1.87 Would be surprised not to see Nathanial in the 1st 2 here. He was a good enough horse at 3 and trainers horses nearly allows do better at 4. 1st time out is not a problem and the softer ground is a plus. Not backing in the win as I also expect Farrh to do well. Was obviously unlucky last time and expect an improvement for (i) the additional experience (he is very lightly raced) and (ii) the softer ground. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Nathanial won, Farrh 2nd, 83.95 profit on Nathanial, 25 points down on Switzerland in the earlier race. 58.95 points up so far on the day. Bank now 1116.29 Will look for another bet today. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules In running bet - 16.20 at Sandown 50 points on Thimmar in the Betfair win market at 5.1 or take Betfair SP at the off if not matched. With a further 2 bets in play bets in the win market - 50 point lay at 2.82 and a further lay of 100 points at 1.66. If the 1st lay gets matched I don't lose, if the 2nd lay gets matched I win regardeless of who wins. :hope NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Got lucky there. I watched the race rather than the Betfair Screen and didn't think Thimmar would have went that low. However it was matched at a low of 1.66 and not a point lower. Overall that means 95.40 point profit. Bank now 1211.69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Ayr 2.30 Have a very strong fancy for Haajes. 50 point win (at 5.8) and 50 point place (at 2.1) - both of Betfair. Thinking I'd be very surprised to see this out the place. Has run decently but not spectacularly on last few runs. Last time out was 4/12 off 77 at 6f on Good ground. Today, he is off the same mark but at 5f on soft. I'm thinking he should be better suited to both the ground and the trip on this occasion. In addition he has Ned Curtis claiming 7lb on board in place of Ryston French that should be another big advantage. The favourite is likely to be Headspace who won last time out but has to defy the rise in the weights on ground that he is probably less well suited to than last time. The 2nd Favourite Hazelrigg is a worthy contender but no reason to expect significant improvement on his last run. Bit of a concern - Haajes is on the drift. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Haajes came 2nd - happy with that given he was well back and had to make a lot of late headway to get into the places. So lost on the win bet and won on the place bet. Grand profit of 2.47 points on the race. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 17:00 at Ayr 50 points on Oakbrook on the place market at 2.32. Came 4/9 last time out having gone off at Betfair SP of 74 on ground heavy and has been 3/9 on Good to Firm 3 starts ago. This ground should hopefully suit perfectly and Amy Ryan one of the best jockey's in this Apprentice race. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Oakbrook 1st past the post - unfortunately jockey Amy Ryan was not on board at the time! He clipped heals and shipped her early in the race. 50 points down there. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Bank now 1164.16 8.35 at Southwell I've a strong fancy for Tunnager Grove. It has been on a bit of a drift but I expect it to run a big race. Came 2nd last time on soft ground - 1 and 3/4 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse. He has never raced at Southwell - which could be a risk but both his Sire and Damsire are at their best at Southwell. He should improve for the sand at Sotuhwell. He does not have an ideal draw but he is trained by Hughie Morrison and rider by Darryl Holland - a killer combination at the track. I expect a big race from Beachwood Bay now he is back at Southwell but my money is on Tunnager Grove. 60 point win bet at 6.0 on Betfair, 40 point place bet at 2.10 also on Betfair. :ok NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Tunnager Grove came home 2nd. Won 41.98 on the place bet, lost 60 on the win. Bank now 1106.14 3.20 at Catterick Nothing too serious here. 10 points on each of Focail Maith, Royal Swain and Activate in the Betfair place market. Yet to be seen what price I'll get matched at but the 2nd 2 just over 2.0 and the 1st just over 5.0. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Tunnager Grove came home 2nd. Won 41.98 on the place bet, lost 60 on the win. Bank now 1106.14 NGS If your bank was 1164.16 now it will be 1164.16-60+41.8 = 1145.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Cheers Dices. I got my sums all wrong. I've re-done them and should have been 1146.18 (I made 41.98 on the place bet rather than 41.8). I got it shockingly wrong in the 3.20 at Catterick - I picked 3 in a 10 runner race and they came 4th, 7th and 10th. Looking on the positive, after the 30 point loss on that my bank is 1116.18 which (on account of my dodgy maths) is higher than I thought it was at lunch time! Looking to boost things tonight. 7.50 at Kempton 50 point back of Decana in the Betfair win market (looking to get matched at 8.8 or take SP at the off) and 2 in play lays - 50 points at 4.2 and 100 points at 2.62. From what I have seen horse tends to look menacing in the run and then disappoints, especially if the opening pace is slow. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Decana never traded low at all. Make some progress through the field and almost immediately went backwards again. 20.10 at Chester 75 points on Tidal Way in the Betfair place market at 1.89 and 25 point in the Betfair win market at 6.4. Thinking - Niceofyoutotellme is a bit of a gamble here. Those who are backing it are relying on something more than the formbook. I'll leave it alone. This horse has been consistent. Last time out it was probably disadvantaged by going with the pace, has done OK (and no better) before at Chester on Good to firm and given he is by Red Clubs this ground should suit him best. He has a poor draw but jockey does well at this course. I don't fancy the next 2 in the betting behind Tidal Way and would be genuinely surprised if Tidal Way doesn't finish in the 1st three. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules No time for reasons and will update totals later but 4.15 at Southwell At the prices I really like Imjin River - 75 points in the Betfair Place market at 3.95 (or betfair SP if not matched) and 25 points in the win market at 16.0 on Betfair. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Imjin River drifted before the off and went off at 22 on Betfair in the win market, my 3.95 was matched in the place market so 211.29 profit on the place market and 25 point loss on the win market. Surprised at the horses that beat him! The favourite Tunnager Grove who I backed last week at the same track was very disappointing. By last bet on Friday was a dead loss so 100 points down on that and lost 50 the time before on my attempted in play trade also from last week. With all that taken into account bank is now 1152.29 (profit of 152.29 overall). Time to kick on. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules One last bet for today. 21.00 at Wolves 55 points on Victorian Number at 4.2 on Betfair place market. This bet involves putting lot of faith in horses last run over his general form - dangerous I know. However was 2/11 last time over 1m at Kempton, led most of the way round and when passed stayed on quite strongly and the extra distance at Wolves in this race (just short of 1m 1f) won't do any harm. Last time was drawn very wide and still got to the front - somewhat better draw this time and a repeat of that last performance will see him do well. The price takes full account of the fact he may not repeat what he did last time. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules :wall Victorian Number beat the 5th horse home by 7 lengths, was only 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner (over 1m 1f) but finished 4th. Beaten a length by the 3rd to be fair so not that close a thing but still. Bank now 1097.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 16.00 at Ascot The only one I like at the front of the market is Eshtibaak. 25 points on Betfair win market at 5.8 and 75 points in the Betfair place market at 2.26. He has only disappointed once - last time out as a beaten favourite. However, plenty of excuses that time - large field on the all weather and got bumped about early in the run and then make decent amount of late progress without even looking like threatening the lead, eased near the finish after traffic problems. On pedigree likely to be slightly better on A/W but today's conditions should suit him fine. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Eshtibaak unlucky - didn't get clear run - again! 1 more bet today - 17.20 at Ascot 100 points on Betfair place market at 2.36 on the favourite Dungannon. Good record at Ascot. Won't mind the ground and came 5/28 last time out over C and D off the same mark. Better draw this time, albeit probably worse jockey. Should hit the frame. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Sorry wrong in what I said re Dungannon. Last time out run was same course but not the same distance - last time out was 5f, this is 6f. But he is 2 from 2 at 5f NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 22, 2012 Author Share Posted July 22, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Dungannon came 5th! Beaten by a head for a place, having won the race of those on the far side. 200 points down on the day. Bank now 897.29 NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted July 23, 2012 Author Share Posted July 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 14.10 at Southwell Anton Chigurh making his debut at Southwell but on pedigree will be better there than anywhere else. If he repeats his performance last time out he should win with a bit in hand. However, that was only time he has shown that much ability and may not live up to promise. Going to leave him alone at the prices. Of the rest I expect Alpha Tauri and Only ten percent to be the big dangers.In May Only Ten Percent (after a string of wins at the course) went off at 2.64 and bombed. However the price was largely justified by past performances and he was entitled to be past his best on that occasionfollowing lots of recent racing.. He is off the same mark here and coming off a break but he can be backed at a bigger price today just to finish in the 1st 3. So going 75 points at 2.75 in the Betfair Place market for Only ten Percent to finish in the places. In addition, also going for all 3 of the above (Alpha Tauri, Anton Chigurh and only ten percent) in any order in the Tote Exacta - 6 lines at 1 point per line. Total outlay on the race therefore 81 points. NGS NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted July 23, 2012 Share Posted July 23, 2012 Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules :clap Exacta's first 2 isn't it?! Nice analysis either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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