NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 3.25 at Haydock - 6f 50 points Strong Suit on the Betfair Place market at 2.38 (or take Betfair SP at the off) Thinking - same sire at Cheviot and should like the Firm ground. Has recently been racing on good ground, then LTO on Good to firm when came 2nd not having had the easiest of runs. One other bet on the same race - bit boring but the top 3 in the field - Strong Suit, Bated Breath and Ortensia (in any order) in the Tote Trifecta. That means 6 lines at 1 point a line. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Strong Suit was prominent early and disappointed - not close to the frame and the Tote Trifecta was way off. 20.30 at Wolves 1m 4f Speculative punt here - 10 points on the Betfair place market on the outsider of the field Spanish Trail at 34.0 Basically just too high a price - his last run wasn't actually that bad (admittedly his previous efforts were bad) and this looks like a poor race. On pedigree there is a chance the step up in trip will see some improvement. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Spanish Trail ran OK and better than its price - 7th of 11 but a fair way behind 3rd. 10 points down on that. Also lost 50 points on Strong Suit and made 12.5 on Face the problem - Overall 47.5 down on the day. Slipping back a bit, must do better. Bank now 1937.69

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Forgot one of my losses from yesterday - also lost 6 points on the Trifecta so bank is 1931.69. 2.55 at York - 6f 50 points on the Betfair place market on Pepper Lane at 3.4 (or take Betfair SP at the off if not matched) and 25 points on the Betfair win market at 9.4 (that has been matched and the price has now drifted out even further). Thinking behind bet - His best performances so far are on Good to Soft at Ripon - rather different from what he has here but even if not quite his best could still do very well. On his best he should be the favourite. Not a great performance LTO but excusing that on the basis that was a 5f and he is better at 6f. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Pepper Lane was very disappointing compared to what he is capable of. Came 7th a street behind the winner. Perhaps she (referred to "he" above!) just didn't like the ground - which turned out to be firm, or he may simply have been past her peak for the year. Bank now 1856.69 (+856.69) NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 16.20 at Leicester Seeking the Buck 50 point win at 4.4 on Betfair Horse is having its 4th run back after break of about 18 months. He has improved for each of these runs and came 3rd last time being the only horse fast finishing last time from the rear. He went up 2lbs for that last run but based on past performances is capable of more. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Seeking the Buck was rubbish! Came 7th of 8 runners having drifted out to 7.9! Bank now 1806.69 NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.45 at Wolves - 7f Balti's Sister - 65 points in the Betfair place market at 1.83 and 10 points in the Betfair win market at 6.6. Thinking behind the bet - one of the 3 year olds in the field who could be open to improvement. LTO raced on the turf at Lingfield and came 2nd despite not having a favoured draw and not taking the straightest of courses. Could be slightly better on A/W and has an OK draw this time. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Strange - Balti's sister drifted a lot - went off at 2.82 in the place market and 12.3 in the win market. Ultimately run well and came 2nd. Overall 41.63 points profit on the race. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.15 at Wolves Prohibition -10 points in the Betfair place market at 12.0 or take Betfair SP at the off. Horse is coming back off a break and making his 1st outing for a new trainer so anything could happen, but he has put in some decent performances on the A/W which he is returning to for the first time in a few runs, his new trainer has an OK record and the horse has ran well off a break in the past. He could well hit the frame. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Prohibition went off at 16.0 in the place market, missed the start, tried to get back in the race too quickly, raced very wide and then faded. Never came close but might be worth keeping an eye one if he continues to go off at big prices. 10 points down there. Overall 31.63 points up on the day. Bank now 1837.32

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 13.40 at Chester 50 points each way on Beau Minstral at 6.5 with Coral She is drawn 1 which is always a big advantage at Chester over sprint trips and has won twice in 5 efforts over C and D. S De S is on board which can't be bad and trainer is in better than average form. Her overall record of % wins and places suggests she may be better on firmer ground than she gets today but looking at her pedigree (and the fact she ran well on heavy) I think there is a fair chance she will actually improve for facing softer ground than she has encountered in her last few runs. She is probably not well handicapped as such but I think there is enough positives to expect her to fill the places and always a chance she might win the thing. :hope NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 14.10 at Chester - 7f Betfair place lay of Redvers at 5.3 - risking 99.97 points to win 22.25 I was looking for something to back here but it seems very competitive and a case can be made for many. If I had been backing something I would have went for Bravo Echo and/or Roninksi both won LTO and think have the potential to do better than their last run - Bravo Echo because he is back to 7f and is drawn 1 and Roninski because he seemed to being going away again in the last 20 yards and LTO possibly wasn't ridden to absolutely best effect being asked to make a significant amount of headway midway through the race rather than steady progress through the field. Having said all that could also make big case for 2 or 3 others and therefore just laying Redvers - poor draw, highest mark and less than impressive last time. There are 4 places but in this competitive a race I can't see him being involved at the finish. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Disaster! :puke Redvers drifted from 5.3 when I backed it to 6.0 and then ran very well and came 3rd. 99.97 point loss. Roninski came 4th. In the 1st race Beau Mistral ran well and came 3rd so slight profit there. 14.35 at Newcastle - 55 points on Whatssofunny - essentially expecting it to come on from a decent run LTO. The run LTO followed a bit of a lay off. NGS 14.35 at

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Sorry forgot to say the above bet is in the place market - at 3.55. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 16.05 at Bath -10f Gavi 55 points in the Betfair place at 3.40 or take Betfair SP at the off if not matched. Unexposed horse which may improve for the firm ground - not a huge standout but price is too big. I'm not that keen on the favourite - was good last time but not particularly consistent. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules There was a little late money for Gavi but he disappointed. The favourite came 2nd. 16.40 at Bath - 10f 55 points on the Betfair win market on Enriching. Horse has not always been consistent but nor are many of the others. Ran well last time and should improve for the firmer ground. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules The above bet on Enriching Bet matched at 3.2. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 19.20 at Kempton 2 bets here both on the Betfair place market 15 points on Victorian Number at 5.2 and 50 points on the Bay bandit at 3.5 NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules In the 19.20 both horses I backed looked good towards the front for a long way and were then swallowed up quickly by horses coming from behind. 9.20 at Kempton - 7f 65 points on Don Libre on the Betfair place market at 3.65 or take Betfair SP at the off - horse has won or placed 5 times in 5 runs on the A/W and he has finished 2nd the last twice over C and D. All told he has only had 7 lifetime runs so still scope for improvement. He likes to get to the front and in this race there should not be too much competition for that - there are no other out and out front runners and a few horses in the race that like to race towards the rear. Last time out he had Richard Hughes and now he has Ashley Morgan - that is a disadvantage however LTO he jinked a little at the start, raced wide and then went a bit quick and was fading fast near the finish. Accordingly, there is scope for improvement and he was only raised a pound for that effort. And at the end of all that I've also talked myself into putting 15 points on the win market at 10.0 (or take Betfair SP at the off). NGS NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Don libre now being quite heavily backed without my bets being matched so rather than see the price drop too fmuch by the time of the off and end up with a much lower SP I have taken 2.84 on the place market and 8.2 on the win market for the above stakes. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Don libre did the business. :clap To be honest I probably threw away some money today as some of the bets weren't as thought out as they might have been. Anyway time to tally up - 1. Made 18.75 on Beau Mistral 2. Lost 99.97 on Redvers 3. Lost 55 on Whatsofunny 4. Lost 55 on Gavi 5. Made 115.80 on Enriching 6. Lost 65 in total on Victorian Number and Bay bandit 7. Made 217.82 on Don Libre Overall up 77.4 on the day. Bank now 1914.72 (+914.72)

[stewartd14]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Decent stuff here ! :clap

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

Decent stuff here ! :clap

Cheers Stewartd14, I make my share of bad calls and still learning all the time but when I put the work in it normally comes out ok. Laziness and impulsiveness are my enemies in this game and they sometimes beat me! "Dedicated Dons punter" - take it we're speaking "Abaarr-deen" and not MK Dons?

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 14.10 at Bath - 8f My money is on Silent Laughter. His form so far is nothing to right home about, but based on both sides of his pedigree, his performance last time out and indeed his trainer I expect him to go better up to 8f from 7f. Indeed would expect him to end up racing even further in time. Plus, on pedigree he should also improve for the firm ground - should be ideally suited to it. Going with 75 points in the place market at 2.88 - the price is drifting out even further! and 15 points on the win at 10.0 or take Betfair SP if not matched at the off. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules One other reason why Silent Laughter is a good bet - LTO was 1st run off a break - trainers horses tend to improve for there 1st run off a lay off. I'm reasonably confident of him at least hitting the places here. Re the win bet I have taken 9.4 as the price has started to come in a bit so was looking unlikely the 10 would get matched. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Silent Laughter was very disappointing. 14.40 Bath 8f Going for same stakes on a horse at very similar prices - Tonle Sap 75 points in the Betfair place market at 3.25 and 15 points in the win market at 9.2 This horse is unexposed (only had 3 runs) but so far has been more consistent than progressive, on pedigree should do well on the ground and may just improve generally, raced a bit keen LTO so if is a bit calmer should do well. NGS

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 3.40 at Bath Annie's Rocket - back in trip on firm ground, with an uphill finish could go well at a biggish price 50 points in Betfair Place market at 4.2 or take Betfair SP at the off. Sarangoo is the other pick - also 50 points on betfair place market at 2.34 - made eye catching run last time out. NGS

[stewartd14]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

Cheers Stewartd14, I make my share of bad calls and still learning all the time but when I put the work in it normally comes out ok. Laziness and impulsiveness are my enemies in this game and they sometimes beat me! "Dedicated Dons punter" - take it we're speaking "Abaarr-deen" and not MK Dons?

Tell me about it ! :lol For all my sins in a previous life, yes, the Dandy Dons ! Never even noticed a fellow Aberdonian had joined the crew - a deluded supporter also ?

[NGS]

Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

Tell me about it ! :lol For all my sins in a previous life, yes, the Dandy Dons ! Never even noticed a fellow Aberdonian had joined the crew - a deluded supporter also ?

Hi Stewartd14, I always follow the results and their the only team I have but not a hardcore fan. Was at Pittodrie for a first time in a few years for the Neil Simpson testimonial, but that was mainly to chum along a pal who is a season ticket holder. Hope you haven't been backing them blind for the last 20 years! NGS