NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Cheers The Saint. Falling into loss encouraged me to put a bit more effort into my homework last night. Exacta paid 22.90 and Place bet - 75 points at 2.74 (not 2.75 as stated above) paid 130.50 so back in profit, bank now 1044.69 Not exactly making a fortune with the thread but the discipline of posting everything and having a max bet of 100 points is keeping me from throwing away cash as I have done in the past. A few of my bets haven't been as well thought out as they should be so plenty room for improvement. :D NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.05 at Wolves 75 points in the Betfair Place market on Kyanight at 2.64. The price is drifting but horse has run twice on the A/W and placed 2nd both times, off 68 and 70. He is now off 72 which shouldn't really cause him any problems if he repeats his recent performances. Difficult to judge but think probably slightly disadvantaged by being up with the pace on his last A/W performance as the other prominent horses came from further back. Also think Gap Princess may run a race but no money on it. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Kyanight 10th of 10. Gap Princess came 4th. One more bet tonight - 21.05 at Wolves A bit more speculative - Majuro was 3rd of 13 last time out on turf. He races off the same mark today on the A/W. His record on turf is 7 times won or placed from 37. His record on the A/W is 18 win or placed out of 26 races. Drifting badly and going within tongue tie so perhaps today is not the day but going with 50 points in the Betfair Place market at 4.8 NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Majuro came home 3rd - 181.64 profit on that bet to be added to the 75 point loss on Kyanight bet. Overall bank now 1151.33.

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Nottingham 3.05 - 5f Going for 2 in the Betfair place market here. 50 points on each of Bilash (3.4 or take SP at the off) and Divertmenti (4.7 or take Betfair SP at the off). Thinking behind the bets - I think both horses will be seen to bet advantage over the trip, the ground and on a flat course such as Nottingham. Recent form is OK at best but excuses can be made for that. No money on anything else but Triple Dream - at a shorter price has a very good shot but I don't fancy the 2nd in the Betting - Moorhouse girl who possibly has a bit to find and would be better of softer. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Triple Dream (not backed) won having drifted out to a backable 2.38 in the place market. Bilash sneaked a place in 3rd and Divertmenti came 5th not far behind. One win and one loss on the race - overall 64.72 up on the race. For the record the horse I didn't fancy - Moorhouse girl - run respectably but came 4th at 2.70 in the place market. Bank now 1216.05 NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 16.00 Doncaster Lay of Silvery Moon in Betfair Place market - 55 point lay at 2.74 - Liability of 96.80 Thinking behind bet - very competitive race, Silvery Moon is a 5 year old off highest ever mark. Has had a string of good performances - not convinced that can be kept up. On pedigree he should be slightly better on this ground but on record appears better on softer and has yet to run well at Doncaster and the trip is also a question mark. For the record Conduct and Tinshu seem likely to run well. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Silvery Moon won - 96.80 points down on that. Turns out horse improved for the step up in trip, can handle Doncaster and did well on the ground! Who knew - the guy who laid my bet for sure did. Horse drifted to 3.36 in the place market and won by a head in a very close race. Top 5 separated by about half a length but loser nonetheless. 19.00 at Lingfield Macchiara - 80 points in the Betfair Place market at 2.62 and 20 points in the Betfair win market at 7.4 Only having its 4th race and 1st in a handicap. This is its 3rd start of the year. 1st start of the year came 3rd in a maiden on good to firm - probably needing the run. LTO - on good ground - pulled a bit at the start and won with possibly a bit in hand. Should do better for - (a) the extra experience; and (b) back to firm ground. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Macchiara never really threatened the winner but came 2nd - overall with a loss on Silvery Moon and a profit on Macchiara 7.23 points up on the day. Bank now 1223.28

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.50 at Wolves -1m 1f Elijah Pepper - 50 each way with sky bet at 11/1 - with with skybet as no much liquidity on Betfair at the moment and more than happy with that price. Horse has been running on turf. His turf record is 20 times won or placed from 40 runs - more than half of those 20 being 3rd place finishes. His all weather record is 10 times won or placed out of 15 - with 4 of them being wins. His record at C and D is even better - 8 times won or placed from 11 (and he came 4th on 2 of the 3 times he wasn't in the top 3 on C and D). 3 wins from 11 at C and D. He currently races off 74 - he won off that mark over C and D 10 months ago and has been placed over C and D off as high as 76. He is now back to his favoured conditions for the 1st time in quite a few runs and has placed 2nd in his last 2 outings so definitely in form. He is now a 7 year old but must have great chance of a place and decent sneak of the win. I now see the money is coming for it! NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 21.20 Poppy Golighty - 50 points e/w at 16/1.

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Both horses tonight disappointed - 200 points down on the day. Bank now - 1023.28 NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 20.25 at Kempton - 6f Saloomy - 50 point win bet at 4.1 on Betfair Thinking behind bet - On basis of past performances this is likely to be between Saloomy and Sir Maximillian - both horses are making their 1st appearance on the A/W - on basis of pedigree the change of surface should suit Saloomy better. According to pedigree Sir Maximilian has already been running over his favoured conditions. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Saloomy won - 148.34 profit on that makes up some of my losses yesterday. Bank now 1171.62

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 15.40 at Newcastle - 7f 50 points on Discression in the Betfair place market at 2.08 or take betfair SP at the off. Lay Eastward Ho in the Betfair place market at 2.06 for a liability of 50 points. Thinking behind bets - lot of horses with chances. Eastward Ho had good draw last time, poor draw this time and would be surprised if could show any further significance improvement given volume of racing. There is a good number I fancy more than him. Discression had the draw and the ground against him last time but ran well, will hopefully realise early promise today when both ground and draw are much more in his favour. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Discression - which was backed in the place market won and Eastward Ho - a lay in the place market came 5th. So 96.82 point profit on the race. Bank now 1268.44 NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 15.10 at Redcar - 7f 55 points on Pearl Nation in the Betfair Place market at 2.16 and 30 points on the same Horse in the Win market at 5.4. Thinking behind bet - least exposed horse in the field, won last time out and going again on another flat galloping track (Doncaster last time, Redcar this time). Last time out win was at 6f when he was running on strongly. Now he tackles 7f, which should also suit on pedigree. He seems to have had the best of the draw last time out but even taking that into account he seems to have strong claims. Would be very surprised if he didn't finish in the places at the very least given the form of his race LTO has worked out very well. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Pearl Nation could only manage 4th! Missed a place by about a head. 7.35 at Ayr 50 points on King of Windsor in the Betfair Win market at 3.4 Thinking behind bet - this is the horses 3rd race back after a break. Last time out he was a somewhat unlucky 2nd at C and D for which he has been put up 1lb. Hoping he will improve for (a) the extra fitness from his 2nd race; and (b) the firmer ground - which he should based on record and pedigree. Finally hoping he has more luck this time. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules King of Windsor won in a close finish - balances out Pearl Nation just missing out. Didn't say but the other aspect of backing King of Windsor is that historically he has done well off higher marks. Anyway, lost 85 points of Pearl Nation and won 114.84 points on King of Windsor. Bank now 1298.28

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 15.40 at Lingfield - 7f 60 points on Westwiththenight in the Betfair Place Market at 2.40 and 15 points on the same horse in the Betfair win market at 8.20 Thinking behind bet - I really can't see why the favourite is as short as he is - based on his pedigree his last 2 performances have been on ideal ground - Frim and Good to firm. He should do OK at Lingfield and on form has a good chance but it seems a competitive race with cases to be made for many. I would not be surprised if he won but not interested at the prices. Westwiththenight is making his debut on Polytrack and on pedigree should be very well suited to it. His last run - 4th of 5th came on soft ground which (again on pedigree) is likely to have disadvantaged him. That last run came in June and for this particular trainer - W Haggas - the break should not count as a disadvantage. Indeed he may well have come on for it. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules The 15.40 at Lingfield was close at the front - the favourite (who I wasn't that keen on) won. The 1st four were separated by just over a length. Westwiththewind made some late headway to sneak 3rd by a nose. Not given the best chance but in those circumstances fortunate to the make the places. Overall 65.39 point profit on the bet. Bank now 1363.67. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 18.15 at Southwell - 1m 45 points each way on Kay Gee Bee at 9/1 with Corals. Thinking behind bet - This is likely to be a competitive race and I am drawn to those who have the opportunity to step up on recent form rather than simply repeat it. The horse is now 8 and has never raced on Fibresand. 1st trip on to Southwell at that age is sometimes a sign of desperation but the won a 15 runner claimer on turf on soft ground which should be very far from his ideal conditions. He is better on Polytrack and based on pedigree should be better still on Fibresand. I expect him to ran a big race. I also like Position and Follow the flag so having 6 lines on the Tote Exacta with those 2 and Kay Gee Bee - i.e 2 of those 3 horses to finish 1 and 2 in any order. 1.60 points a line - total investment on the Tote - 9.60 points. Not putting money on it but I think Flying Pickets is too big a price - people perhaps being out off by the jockey booking. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Kay Gee Bee not quite good enough - came 4th a long way behind the front pair. Position came a close 2nd, follow the flag came 6th and Flying Pickets 11 of 11. 19.45 at Southwell 55 points on Gracie's Gift in the place market at 2.98. Thinking behind bet - is getting old but good record at track and last run better than it looked. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Gracie's Gift finished midfield. Both bets lost on Wednesday, 154.60 points down on the day. 3 steps forward, 2 steps back - but will keep walking. Bank now 1209.07 20.25 at Kempton - 1m 50 points on the Betfair place market at on Chapter and Verse. Horse disappointed last time out - but had excuses - blew the start and tried to make a fair bit of headway midway through the race. That seemed to tell at the end of the race when he faded. Trainer form not great but not horrendous. Has decent draw and decent record on A/W albeit that is reflected in a higher mark. Horse is now 6 years old. Today he races off 82. 2 years ago, with the same trainer he was able to win at C and D with 2 lengths to spare off 87. Hopefully he will rediscover that form tonight. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Should have said matched at 5.8 on Chapter and Verse. Decided to go for one other bet in the 20.25 at Kempton - 50 points on Double Dealer at 2.72. Coming back off a break after disappointing run last time out - maybe something was amiss? On the run before that was quite impressive when finding loads of trouble and finishing 2nd. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Chapter and verse didn't rely settle and came 4th, Double Dealer came 3rd. Didn't specifically say above that backing Double Dealer in the place market but the 2.72 should have given it away. Overall 32.30 profit on the race. Bank now 1241.37

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Pontefract - 15.45 - 6f Going with Ultrasonic, 55 points in the Betfair place market at 2.46. Lightly raced 3 year old. Has raced 6 times and on last 4 occasions has met soft ground on 3 occasion and good ground on the other. On pedigree he should improve significantly for a chance on Good to Firm, even if he doesn't he still has a fair chance. Draw is just OK, but better than many of his leading market rivals such as Mince. Ultrasonic won readily last time out despite being a bit slowly away. In the past he has also had a tendency to pull hard which is hopefully behind him following the fitting of a hood last time out. I expect him to go well here. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Ultrasonic drifted out to about 3.25 on the Betfair Place market and then made a lot of late headway to come a clear 2nd. 76.85 profit on that. Going to "re-invest" most of the profit in the 5.15 at Pontefract! 55 points on Mark Anthony on the Place market Thinking behind bet - has been raced at 8f recently and now back to 6f which is a distance he has done well on in the past. LTO at 8f went off way to fast and was inevitably hauled back. Has a good record at C and D - 3rd of 12 in June off the same mark he races off today and only time he has run over C and D he won carrying a weight of 67. Has a decent claimer on board and should be able to make the places in a race where there are no real standouts. NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules Mark Anthony sweated up beforehand and ran no race. 55 points down on that. So 21.85 profit on the day. Bank now 1263.22 NGS

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Re: NGS's Disciplined Deep Form Study - Sticking to the rules 15.00 at Thirsk - 5f REALLY like Waking Warrior here. 25 points in the Betfair win market at 7.0 and 75 points on the Betfair place market at 2.50. Thinking behind bet - Horse has finished 2nd in his last 3 runs. Last time out he found trouble in running and finished like a train. Run before that was at C and D and he had a poor draw. This time out he has a very good draw. He has not risen in the weights for these last 3 performances. Today he goes off 71. Today's ground is likely to be a bit softer than he has recently faced but on pedigree that shouldn't make much difference and furthermore his original handicap mark of 84 was based on performances on the sort of ground he is likely to face today. He has an inexperienced 7lb claimer on today but he has also ridden his for his most recent runs. The jockey is still to record his 1st win but not concerned by that given the horse seems to have a bit to spare. N.B - The only other time the horse has raced on C and D he was 6/17 on soft off a weight of 77 with an even less experienced pilot on board and without the benefit of a good draw. Horse isn't guaranteed to win but a hell of a lot has to go wrong for it to finish outside the places. This will probably come back to bite me but I cannot see there being a better bet at the prices all week. My only concern is that the biggest prices on offer are on Betfair and no sign of a flood of money for it. At least someone on Betfair seems happy to oppose it and a large proportion of the money matched on the race has been either for or against this particular horse. :hope NGS