BBOTD Monday 27th

[cpo]

6.00 Wolves See the Storm 1pt win @ 16/1 Bet 365 I was very tempted by Idol Deputy for this race as he has been running consistently well in recent weeks and should be suited by a return to this trip at this track. The handicapper however may have caught up with him as he is up another 2lbs for his latest run at Lingfield where he finished 5th. Join Up is another horse that makes plenty of appeal from a good draw but he may just need a little help from the handicapper as well. The horse I am taking a chance with is having his first run for Lisa Williamson having left Patrick Morris. He has only 1 win to his name which came on the turf at Yarmouth back in May last year off a mark of 49. He has had a few placed efforts since that run but lost his way on his last few starts for his old trainer. He has had 3 previous runs on the all weather which all came right at the start of his career but they were very uninspiring. They have put an inexperienced jockey on board today who is yet to win but he does claim 7lbs which could be useful as it puts him on a mark of 42. He is well drawn in 2 but whats more interesting for me is the stable form. They haven't had any recent winners but they have had 3 seconds at 16/1, 12/1 and 6/1 from their last 5 runners so they are clearly in form. The stable don't have that many winners but they might just be able to find some improvement with this horse on his first run for them. There is plenty of recent good form on offer here so it will take a good effort to win this but he might just be able to sneak a place.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th *Turbulance - Plumpton 3:45* Ran really well on its only run at Plumpton in the past when finishing 3rd. Runs off a leniant mark of 91, same mark as when 2nd behind One More Dinar over 3 miles in January. Looked a winner that day, and travelled very strongly, trading at a low of 1.21 in running. Should get 3m 2f as it has been placed over 3m 3f before. This is an amateur rider's race so the booking of R.J. Williams looks good, he is probably the best jockey in the field. Should have a chance in a fairly competitive little race. *1 Point WIN @ 15/2 Hills BOG*

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th

4.00 Wolverhampton Country Road has been running below his OR in claimers recently so has something to prove and is a bit of a character. Boa is reunited with Hayley Turner today and she has gone well under her recently but looks handicapped upto her best on recent evidence and unlikely to get a soft lead against better handicapped rivals Honourable Knight won last time out but that was an awful race and a 6lb rise looks a tad harsh and although open to more improvement really is going to need to find a lot more in this company. Royal Alcor and Illustrious Forest meet on very similar terms as they did when Illustrious Forest won, he was probably kicked for home a little early and was wandering about in the final furlong or so but as soon as Royal Alcor got close he appeared to rally again and warrants the up most respect off a 6lb higher mark Royal Alcor is only 3lb higher BUT promising apprentice takes off 7lb today taking that into account Illustrious Forest is a 1lb better off today and has really found his feet since switched to CD handicaps and looks on a sharp improve at the moment and looks sure to go well again. 1pt win Illustrious Forest 2/1 vc

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2.30 - Wolverhampton - Blown It @ 9/1 - William Hill Competitive opener at Wolverhampton tomorrow and i feel that Blown It has a good chance of putting a couple of dissapointing runs behind her and scoring again. She has won twice on the AW including a C&D win back in January off a mark of 65. Since then she has ran twice finishing 5th both times despite going off favourite however they came in quick succesion (1 day apart). She should be fresh tomorrow off the back of a 3 week break and only 4lbs higher than her latest win i think she will run well here. One of the best jockeys around onboard in Joe Fanning should also boost chances.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th Warden Bond - 6.00 Wol (1pt win 13-2 BET365 BOG) After back-to-back victories at Wolverhampton earlier in the year, Warden Bond ran into handicap blot Vanilla Rum (runs in 4.30 race) last time out, with second place taken by Aviso (won over hurdles on Friday). With the other projected three market leaders today (Marksbury, Stamp Duty and Join Up) all having raced in amateur races last time, I think Warden Bond actually has the most solid form and could fare better dropped back from a 0-65 to a slightly easier 0-60.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th Wolv 4.00 - Country Road - win at 9/1 bog wm hill Has his 3rd run back from a break and reverts to his best trip (2 CD wins) after running over too far and too short Has been dropped 4 lbs since his return and now runs off his last winning mark Luke Morris booked Illustrious Forest looks a danger but he's shot up 20lbs for two wins and might be worth taking on

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 4.30 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Black Coffee @ 11/1 (Hills) Posted this last time:

4.05 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Black Coffee @ 16/1 (PP) Will take a punt on this likeable type, who proved his love for this c&d last winter, when racking up 5 wins in 7 starts. He's dropped in the handicap a little since then, as he's been out of form, but I didn't think he shaped too badly on his most recent try, over a 1m4f trip which is too far for him. On the whole he struggled on the turf (did get one win to his name in the summer), and on his return to the all-weather in November, the Mark Brisbourne yard were bang out of form - registering 0-20 during the month. Things are still not going great for the team, but their runners are going with more encouragement of late, and now this one has been freshened up for a couple of months having been on the go for a long time, he can hopefully refind his spark around here. He needs a good pace and hopefully there's a fair chance of that with Fastnet Storm in the field, and he's capable of getting involved off this mark if returning to form. Tom McLaughlin takes the ride - his only one of the day - and hopefully he can time it to perfection on this late closer.

Ran really well on this occasion, but shaped as if he'd come on for it, when staying on in usual fashion. However, things didn't go well next time out at Kempton - no strength in the market, and could never get involved. However, the way the race was run didn't suit (turned into a sprint, those up there stayed there throughout), and this horse has proved its preference for Wolverhampton. Is back there today, and this is weaker. It's an apprentice handicap and Racheal Kneller is a jockey who is suited to a closer, and hopefully she can pull it out of the bag with this one, who can bounce back here. Bit of a leap of faith with the Brisbourne yard still not really pouring it on, but the ability was there two starts ago, and if putting last time out behind him, could go well at a price.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th This is a contest which betting market revolves around the short-priced favourite in Amaury De Lusignan, who won by eight lengths last time and could be open to further progression. He’s priced about right though, and is worth opposing with QUIPE ME POSTED (16:45) who looks to have plenty to do on a bare interpretation of his recent form figures but I feel he has scope for improvement now dropped back in trip alongside running off a reduced mark and I’m confident of a much improved showing. The Suzy Smith trainer runner came good at around this time last year after moving from Jonjo O’Neill and posted some really decent efforts over fences on better ground at around this distance, notably when winning at Newbury off 8lbs lower than his current rating (beat a subsequent improver in Qianshan Leader). He proved that was no flash in the pan with another good effort behind Rileyev (also improved out of all recognition) at Chepstow off his amended rating and a replication of that performance would see him go very close today. Although running three times this season and beaten more than 18 lengths on each start, his seasonal reappearance came in a really competitive heat at Cheltenham and it was followed by on the face of things, poor efforts at Doncaster and Leicester. In the latter, he travelled really well up throughout until four out, where he faded quickly, seemingly not fully seeing out the 2m5f trip on the stiff track. There may have also been a problem with his wind if stopping that suddenly, so the addition of a tongue tie for the first time today would be no bad thing. Quipe Me Posted has been dropped 7lbs since his seasonal reappearance and it is easy to see why, but now returned to his best trip of 2 miles, off what could be a decent mark and on ground he’ll appreciate, I can foresee a big run. He enjoys small field events, both of his victories coming in single figure fields and all four of his best efforts in 2011 coming in them. These bigger field events he’s been running in just might not suit and I’ll give him a chance with only 8 lining up. The favourite might be a tough nut to crack but there’s plenty of scope for Quipe Me Posted to run a big race running off effectively 108 with the excellent Tom Cannon on-board, and I felt he should be around an 8/1 shot in this field, and gets my vote at a value price. 16:45 Plumpton – Quipe Me Posted; 1pts @ 12/1 William Hill (bog)

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 3.15 Plumpton - Velator - He the only runner with a win under his belt this season and showed improvement when stepped up in distance when winning last time out. Distance shouldn't be a problem and going and class are similar to last time out, so Velator should be thereabouts again today. Trainer/jockey combo has a L.S.P. of +11.5pts with 5 wins and 4 places. 2nd favourite is Rocky Ryan with A P McCoy booked, so should be respected as a possible danger. 3.15 Plumpton: Velator - 1pt win @ 85/40 BetVictor (BOG)

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th

2.30 - Wolverhampton - Blown It @ 9/1 - William Hill Competitive opener at Wolverhampton tomorrow and i feel that Blown It has a good chance of putting a couple of dissapointing runs behind her and scoring again. She has won twice on the AW including a C&D win back in January off a mark of 65. Since then she has ran twice finishing 5th both times despite going off favourite however they came in quick succesion (1 day apart). She should be fresh tomorrow off the back of a 3 week break and only 4lbs higher than her latest win i think she will run well here. One of the best jockeys around onboard in Joe Fanning should also boost chances.

Non-Runner for the 2nd day running :wall Back with another one soon.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2.15 Plumpton KINGS BAYONET @ 13/2 skybet This doesn't look a tough race and the Alan King-trained 5yo pleased with his 4th place first time out over hurdles beating Presenting Ace (now rated 120). Kings Bayonet's following effort was quite poor but the ground could have been against him that day and with better ground today and his stable and jockey in super form I'd give him a big chance in this Maiden where both favourites Hawkill and Western Approaches don't make a particular appeal. The first is trained by Tim Vaughan and that yard have been pretty poor in 2012. The horse was third in his last appearance at Tipperary and that effort has to set the standard here but that was 5 months ago and has changed hands in the meanwhile so I can't back him at 5/2 even if that form reads quite well and could have more improvements in him. Western Approaches represents Nicky Henderson but was very disappointing lto at Towcester and even his AW debut showed nothing to be particular excited about. His only good race was when third behind a subsequent winner in a Maiden at Cheltenham but that form doesn't read so well now and Henderson has had a poor weekend and maybe his yard is not at the top at the moment. Primaries is an unknown quantity making his debut for a yard that has been sparkling this year but he was nothing special on Flat in France and Ferguson's yard seemed a bit in downtrend of late even if Asaid won yesterday. At these odds I'll have a shot with the Alan King-trained 5yo.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 4.15 - Plumpton - Speed Steed @ 4/1 - Bet365 Speed Steed is one that seems to have improved alot for a move to Tim Vaughans yard. A very respectable 2nd at Market Rasen last weekend in a competitive race looks like good form with one of the horses that finished behind him winning subsequently. Can certainly go one better today running off the same mark and has very positive jockey booking in Richard Johnson too.

[Elchubb]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 3.15 Plumpton Velator @ 15/8 Blue Sq Backed this one last time out and showed great improvement over the longer trip.The way he won that day, he should be a fair bit better than his current mark. Carries a penalty today but i can see this one racking up a sequence before the handicapper catches up with him

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2.15 Plumpton: Petit Ecuyer EW (9/1 Lads) Awful racing today and just one novice hurdle, the fav from the Vaughan yard doesn't look that good and the stable are not firing, Henderson's runner has been a big disappointment so the value may lay elsewhere. Gary Moore does well at this track and has a couple of runners in which Petit Ecuyer is the main hope with Jamie Moore on board. Showed a bit of promise earlier on in the season but then seems to have been bogged down in very soft ground and not been getting home, todays conditions are better and the course will suit and could run into a place at a fair price.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2:45 Plumpton - How's Business - Back She is horrendously short here but this is a bad day of racing and I'd just be happy to get of there with a winner. Has won her first 2 races over fences and has been found a glorious opportunity to complete the hat trick. This is weak to say the least and she should win this on the bridle 1pt win @ 1/12 Hills BOG

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2:15 Plumpton - Pierre Dubh Maiden hurdle and fourth time out for this 6yo, who will be covering the least distance of his runs and a full mile less than his previous novice hurdle outing at Worcester. Hasn't raced since May '11 and is now with his third trainer, in P Henderson. What is somewhat eye catching, however, is Henderson's record of 12 wins of his previous 100 charges. In the past year he has one win in seven at this track, along with a further place. The past 365 day sire stats look pretty positive too, with 6 places (2 wins) in 12 over the distance, 10 places (3 wins) in 21 for 6yo's and 3 places (1 win) in 6 on GS. 100/1 bet 365 (BOG) - ew

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 5.00 Wolverhampton - Ruacana 1pt Win 5/2 PP Ruacana was eye catching on debut over c&d last week and can hopefully build on that today. He broke poorly and never held a good position but ran on very strongly in the finish. He finished in 3rd which was a fair effort considering the start and nothing else made headway from the back. The first and second led throughout so the pace probably wasn't all that strong. Michael Bell has his string in good form and Jamie Spencer takes the ride today. If he can improve for the run and Spencer doesn't over complicate things then he should have a good chance of winning this maiden. As for the opposition - I don't think the favourite Lionrock is anything special based on his last run but he should strip fitter today. This is his first try at the track and up in distance which could bring about improvement. But I can't get a handle on the Johnston runners and I'd rather take them on than back them at the moment. Botti, Hannon and Meehan all have newcomers of interest but I don't see any significant market confidence so I'm hoping they will need the run.

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 4.15 plumpton songsmith 4/1 paddypower has won course and distance just a few weeks ago at this same weight. likes this going, as usual im probably missing something with why this david pipe horse is strong favourite. with no especially great credentials. oh well

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2.30 Wolves Greenhead High - could get the run of the race here. Has been running well at Southwell lately and has claims if reproducing that form on poly here. Claimer takes off a few lbs. 6/1 Hills, 1 pt win

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 2:30 Wolverhampton You'relikemefrank @ 20/1 Bet365 Was progressing when last seen over a year ago so maybe had some problem as he was dissapointing on his final start then, but if he can return in similar form to his last win has chance here and i think is worth taking the chance at the price.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th NO MEAN TRICK 2.30 Wolverhampton. 1 point win. I'm willing to ignore last time, as if he can get the to the front, as he should from a decent draw, he can quite easily make them all go and be involved in the finish. Has to be on his game at the weights, but trip and surface fine and could actually improve a bit more. 15/2 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th Border Lad 3.15 Plumpton. 0.5 points each way. No chance on recent form, but back with Alison Thorpe and he does appear to run for her. The trip and ground's fine and drops to a mark of 82 which also helps. Could surprise a few today at a decent price. 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 1730 wolverhampton 1pt win duke of clarence 6/5 pp only had the 3 runs, with the best last time out finishing second. steps up to a mile now and this may help,unless any newcomer can show something, i fully expect clarence to win

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th 5:15 Twin Bud @ Plumpton - Seems to like it here at Plumpton usually getting placed and also seems to like good to soft ground.Is 1lb lower than last run at the end of January when finishing 3rd of 9 over a longer trip.This is only the second horse out this month for the trainer but can get involved in the finish 0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 Wiliam Hill

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th Catterick 3.20 Just Maddie 20-1 Each Way (bog) Ladbrokes Came good at this venue on decent ground last season and the booking of a 3lb claimer for his return off a low weight looks interesting.

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD Monday 27th

Catterick 3.20 Just Maddie 20-1 Each Way (bog) Ladbrokes Came good at this venue on decent ground last season and the booking of a 3lb claimer for his return off a low weight looks interesting.

Oops, wrong thread - see tomorrow.