BBOTD Tuesday 21st February

[skylark2009]

2.20 Southwell - Samasana - Twice a winner here at Southwell and has also won at this distance. Samasana seems to have readily taken to this surface as her form placings here at Southwell 522211, she has had three of today's rivals behind previously and her progressive form could mean she is likely to hold them off again today. Trainer/jockey combo is running to 5 wins and 1 place for an L.S.P of +34pts. Pelican Rock looks to be the main danger here who now has 11lb's less today in comparison, but Samasana looks to be a progressive filly and has shown plenty of improvement lately and may improve again today. 2.20 Southwell: Samasana - 1pt win @ 11/4 Bet365 (BOG)

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 1430 wetherby seven is lucky 1 pt win 3/1 bet365 winner of a conditional jockeys race at ayr last time out, 2 furlongs extra today,shouldnt be a problem and has 3lb claimer henry brooke on board for the goldie camp,peedeeque could be the danger, if jumping improves

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February *Alderluck - Wetherby 3:15* The Pipe stable has hit form and between now and Cheltenham i feel is the time to keep on the right side of him, he will have well handicapped horses, doesn't he always eh? This horse is having its debut run for Pipe tomorrow and is fitted with blinkers for the first time also, very interesting. The horse will stay the trip, as it won a chase over 3m 2f at Plumpton on heavy already. Was 5th behind Le Beau Bai back in December and now with the Pipe stable, he should be able to eek some improvement out of the horse running off a more workable mark now. Pipe has won from 3 of his last 8 runners. He has had 3 winners from 8 runners in chases at Wetherby. Should go well, but it is a competitive race. *1 Point WIN @ 7/1 Betfred BOG*

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 3.40 Taunton Nampour 1pt win @ 25/1 Ladbrokes This looks extremely competitive and Nampour is the outsider of the field but I think he has a good chance of making the frame. Formally with Philip Hobbs, this horse had his first run for the Tizzards 41 days ago at Ffos Las where he finished a distant 6th. That was his first run for over 600 days and he was entitled to need that run. The stable were not in the best of form at that time but they have hit form with a vengeance in the last few days with 5 winners from 10 runners and none of them finishing worse than 4th. Nampour does not have the greatest of strike-rates with only 2 wins from 13 starts over jumps but he did win in this grade at Aintree back in 2009 and over this distance. The step back in trip to 17f should suit him and they have given him plenty of time to get over his comeback run. He won at Aintree off a mark of 130 with the jockey taking off 10lbs but runs in this race off 121 with the talented Brendan Powell taking off 5lbs. He is still only a 7 year old and is lightly raced so there could be more to come from him. I expect him to have come on plenty for his run at Ffos Las and now with the stable in much better form, hopefully he will be somewhere back to his best.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 2.20 - Southwell - Pelican Rock 1pt win @ 9/4 Bet365 BOG Missed out on the early price of 11/4 here but i rate Pelican Rock's chances of reversing the running with Samasana in this one. He was only just over a length behind that day but is 10lb better off this time with Samasana winning again since. Tom Dascombe's 3yo obviosly had no problem with the fibresand and should improve enough from that run to take this.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 15:15 Wetherby: Mac Aeda, 10/1 Boylesports, 0.5pt e/w Mac Aeda won here two starts ago over 2m 4½f. Today, he steps up in trip to 3m 1f, which should suit as he won very easily over this distance last year over hurdles at Catterick. Lto he finished second here even though he made a couple of mistakes. Jockey Brian Hughes has a decent record here, with a 15% strike rate, and he was on board when this horse won here two starts ago.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 4.00 Southwell Play Golf Before Racing At Southwell Handicap Cl6 1m4f SPARTAN KING @ 3/1 bog (Bet365, William Hill) Spartan King is still a maiden after 12 starts on flat but last time out this 4yo trained by Ian Williams recorded his best ever performance making his debut on Fibresand over 1m3f here at Southwell 5 days ago. Spartan King finished second 1/2L behind the winner Favorite Girl and shaped as another furlong would have helped his chances so today's longer trip should be a plus. He was a neck ahead of Mister Frosty racing with 1lb less than his rival and today Spartan King will carry 8st 11lb while Mister Frosty 9st 5lb so I can't see the horse trained by George Prodromou beating my selection today. The main danger looks Brunello who just recorded his first ever win over C&D one week ago but he's gone 6lb up for that win and even if today David O'Meara, Brunello's trainer, tries him with first time visor he was very difficult to win with last time out (tried with cheekpieces for the first time) when sent off a strong 4/6 favourite with Kieren Fallon on board (Daniel Tudhope takes the reins today). Brunello was hunging away to the right inside the final furlong and almost threw the success away carrying the runner-up with him, stewards' decision was that result had to stand but still Brunello doesn't really looked like a straightforward horse and could be opposed under a penalty today. Effervesce represents an unusual duo with Jim Crowley on board and David Pipe at the training but even with first time blinkers on today the mare should improve a lot from her latest very disappointing performances to win this race. Cloudy Start is only 2lb higher than his lats win over C&D in a seller 11 days ago so the Jamie Osborne's trained 6yo stands a good chance but that looked quite a poor race and Spartan King looks ahead of Cloudy Start also thanks to a line carried by Dunaskin who was 11L behind my selection carrying 12lb less than Spartan King lto while he had finished 3 1/2L behind Cloudy Start carrying 17lb less 6 days before. Newport Arch has been consistent in defeat all Winter and went close to win a couple of times but has never shown big room for improvements even if he is just a lightly raced 4yo. Last time out over 1m6f here Newport Arch finished fourth but 8L behind Sistine but he had a good result over 1m3f when he finished third 2 1/4L behind Magic Millie here at Southwell on January. Magic Millie won twice in his next three starts being beaten just by Cloudy Start in his only defeat and his OR improved 11lb since that win over Newport Arch while the John Quinn-trained 4yo is just 1lb higher today but as written before he never showed big room for improvements so this mark looks fair enough at the moment and Spartan King makes more appeal and is my choice for this race.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 13.50 Southwell: Ingleby Arch @ 11/10 Coral This veteran is still not tiered of racing and runs usually very well in claimers and sellers. He has the weights in his favour today in this small and poor field. Cape of Storms is the obvious danger but Ingleby Arch should have simply more to offer. He loves it here at Southwell as he's 8/19 over C&D, so the step down in trip to 6f won't cause problems.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February southwell - sammasana 11/4 14:20 bet 365 BOG on great form of late , and absolutely loves this track . up against the 2nd place pelican rock and ithink can keep the winning place to keep on for a treble . double winning jockey tom hammilton on board with will boost confidence . seems miles above this class must go well

[Elchubb]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 14.30 Taunton Velator 1pt win @ 5/1 (coral) Missed the price on this one completely but still think it might be worth a small nibble! Been running over inadequate distances and steps up to 3 miles for the first time today on it's handicap debut which going on breeding should suit!

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 2.00 Taunton: Giordano Bruno EW (7/1 Lads) Good novice hurdle is this and you cant argue with the form of the favourite Urbain De Sivola, he beat Ranjaan easily among others and the form looks solid. Second fav Dualla Lord but wouldnt want to on any of Nicholls horses at the moment and anyhow his form isnt as strong and drops in trip. I like the Hobbs horse Giordano Bruno, won his first two bumpers and then was third in a Grade 2 race at Aintree, suffered a setback and given plenty of time to recover and made his hurdling debut last month and led to two out behind Darlan, sure to be fitter today and any improvement at all gives him a good chance today and place claims at the very least.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 3.20 Taunton Nampour weakened quickly lto after coming back from a long lay off. Dropped to a very handy mark and this is his distance. If retaining anything like his old ability he could go close here as he was competing in decent events two years ago. Stable in fantastic form and has a very good jockey on board here which will give him every chance. 1 Pt win 16/1 Bet365

[Jay Desai]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February I'm with you on this SkyLark2009 with Samasana I'm a bit worried about the 10lb reverse with Pelican Rock, but watching the race somewhat felt like Samasana had more to give? Let's hope you're right about the progressive part :).

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 15:40 Taunton: Quite surprised to see Sire De Grugy line up in this race today having run a terrific race just four days ago in a Grade 3 event at Newbury. He finished a very creditable 4/20, only 3 lengths behind the impressive winner Zarkandar who is still unbeaten and looks set for better things. At one point over the last two hurdles I felt Sire De Grugy looked the potential winner until he was swallowed up plugging on at the same pace after the last. The fact he runs today suggests two things to me - he has either come at the race well and his trainer is looking to pick up a nice prize fund in this class two race today or he still needs a prep run for Cheltenham which is just three weeks away. Either way this lightly horse should run a good race today and although he is 2lbs lower than his run on Friday, he is giving a lot of weight away to a potential danger in Devil To Pay who ran a creditable race in his reappearance over this course and distance just 33 days ago and should come on for that run. However my selection is less exposed than all but one horse in this line up (Dare Me) and from those 9 races he has won 3 and placed 3 times so he is a fairly consistent performer. All three of his wins have been over the timber, in fact from 7 races over hurdles he has managed three wins and two places. This is Gary Moore's only runner on the card today which is another positive signal for me and jockey Jamie Moore knows the horse very well now having been on board for all 9 of his races. WIN Sire De Grugy @ 3/1 (BetVictor)

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February the black baron 2.10 wetherby 10/1 willhill sherwani wolf and the twiston davies have the best credentials of these, but having fallen and been pulled up a couple of times earlier in the season this one had a win lto, 6 lengths ahead and 17 behind that one, made decent time considering the going. i reckon this is value

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 1:50 Southwell - Ingleby Arch - Back Very consistent at this level and the most recent winner in this field. Only 4 go to post but effectively looks to only have Punching to beat and he's done that recently anyway. think he's a good price all things considered as I think he'll go off about 4/6 1pt win @ evens Paddy Power BOG

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 3:50 Wetherby - Jackson Cage McCain 7yo who has been placed 6 of his 8 previous career runs, with two win in the process, including a novice hurdle win at 2m1f. Today is 2m4f, a distance at which he bombed out early in his career at Aintree, but with a better jock in the saddle today and an easier course, he could easily turn that around. No course or distance winners line up for this one, but Jackson Cage's sire, Oscar, has had the most success at the track in terms of progeny, with 11 runners and 3 winners (a further 3 placed) over the past 365 days. Clear top weight, today. 10/1 betvictor (bog) - win

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 4.35 Sou - Bella Ophelia - win at 11/8 Stan James Won her maiden over the Southwell 5 furlongs last time out and did it the right way - out quick, make all, don't dawdle, don't get to the front and slow it up..........bullet from a gun job ! Her trainer is consistantly the top trainer at the track by strike rate and hopefully he knows the horses that can win these sprint races and how to do it ! Ishi and Reve are also front runners but going by the speed figs they're not as quick as Bella and might find it difficult to get to the front Bubbly ballerina is probably the main danger - the best horse in the race (the other 3 are all out of the handicap) but she has no course form and seems best on good to firm on turf (though her sire has a good record on Fibresand)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 2.00 Taunton - 1pt win Giordano Bruno @ 8/1 (Hills) Possibly a little bit crazy taking on the favourite (and a couple of others) here, but I was seriously impressed by this horse's reappearance run at Taunton recently. He was a high-class bumper performer, who won his first two races, before a good 3rd in the Aintree Champion Bumper. Returned to the track after nearly three years off the track in January, and travelled powerfully for a long way. Was only headed at 2 out, before fading late on - something hardly unexpected after so long off the track. The first two were rated 138 and 137 with the winner a 12/1 shot for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. It really was a good effort from this one, and has had a month or so off the track to freshen up and try to avoid the bounce factor. I think he's a bit of a dark horse in here, and he should run a cracker so long as he builds on his Taunton effort.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February

14.30 Taunton Velator 1pt win @ 5/1 (coral) Missed the price on this one completely but still think it might be worth a small nibble! Been running over inadequate distances and steps up to 3 miles for the first time today on it's handicap debut which going on breeding should suit!

Nice winner, but you should have used a BOG firm. Returned a whopping 10/1 SP.

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 3:40 Taunton Higgy's Ragazzo @ 18/1 e-w VC Only 6 runs over hurdles so far with 2 wins and 2 seconds and still open to improvement, not so good lto but it was soft that day and best efforts have been on good or good to soft. 18/1 looks a nice price for this Nicky Henderson trained gelding.

[Elchubb]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February

Nice winner' date=' but you should have used a BOG firm. Returned a whopping 10/1 SP.[/quote'] Cheers mate! Luckily in real life i was on best odds but the time it took me to write my reasoning the price had gone with all the b.o.g firms, so changed it to Coral to seek an extra 1/2 point competition wise! Won't be doing that again, though it doesn't really matter this month as i can't make the min bets to qualify!

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February SPINNING WATERS 4.15 Taunton. 0.5 points each way. The ground's a bit of a worry, but I don't feel it's that bad for him and with the great Brendan Powell on board I think he can sit in and be involved in the finish. Good mark, so every chance.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February Divine Intervention 4.45 Taunton. 1 point win. Decent form and good enough to go close in context with today's race. Trip and ground's fine and no reason why he shouldn't go close today. Favourite, Templer, has the form chance, but inconsistent and cannot be relied upon. 5/2 Ladbrokes (bog)

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February Was about time I posted a winner up!

[macmuck]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February :clapSOme brilliant tips today. Cause, not backed any of them!!

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February 10 winners today :-)

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February

Was about time I posted a winner up!

Thats your first post in the comp this year!

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February

Thats your first post in the comp this year!

I know! I've posted a few up in the daily threads I think, much busier man nowadays so racing has taken a backseat but I'm trying to slowly squeeze some time to study everyday again now. Yesterday was a prime opportunity since I had the day off work, not in until 2 today either so I'll be posting another today.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 21st February

I know! I've posted a few up in the daily threads I think' date=' much busier man nowadays so racing has taken a backseat but I'm trying to slowly squeeze some time to study everyday again now. Yesterday was a prime opportunity since I had the day off work, not in until 2 today either so I'll be posting another today.[/quote'] Nice to have you back mate, hope you get the time to post more often.