BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012

[Jimmy2shoes]

Trainer P.Hobbs & jockey T.O'Brian both won this very race last year so i will stick with them today in the first bet of the year. The 4yr old gelding was 4th on his first and only start in a 16 runner NH flat race over 1m 6f back on the 16th of Nov. He ran a wee touch green that day and if he's come on any he should run a close race be it over further - 2m 1f Going should be fine but trip is still unkown. Exeter 16:00 - Billesley Road. 0.5 e/w bet @ sp All the VERY best in 2012.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 1 point win mottley crewe 13/2 william hill 13.20 southwell mottley crewe is a course winner,also won over this distance back in october,mottley crewe is in decent form of late with its last 5 runs being 1/1/2/4/2,the second last time out it was only beaten by a head,that run was only 12 days ago so should be fit,an open contest but im sure mottley crewe will be involved at the finish

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Little brief off out tonight, Happy new year to everyone! 1.55 Southwell Perhaps a slightly biased opinion as I have a tiny vested interest in Irish Jugger in fact back up to Southwell to see the old boy today! That said he must have an outstanding chance; Brunnello would perhaps be interesting if there was any money for him but failed to show anything in 3 runs in maidens to qualify for a harsh looking mark off 57 and picked up fairly cheaply at sales in August and may need a run. Jasmeno has a reasonable strike rate for this grade with 3 wins from 14 starts but won on the back of nearly a year off in October at Wolves over 2f further and has been well below that sort of form since off revised marks and although yard do well here she is yet to encounter the surface. Bow River Arch is still a maiden and doesnt shape as if he is about to break that unless new yard can find the key, he doesnt seem to put his all in at the finish and goes without usual headgear today. ALthough First Rock has scored twice here now he has burnt plenty of fingers on the way including me, he isnt the most genuine in the finish again and although easy winner penultimate start was well held over same CD off revised mark and similar story likely here today especially dropping back in trip, and Jugger beat him last year on 8lb worse terms so on that line Jugger should have his holding. The obvious concern for most of these including Jugger is the lack of a front runner (wouldnt be surprised to see First Rock make use of his stamina) but he is clearly in good heart finishing well from a long way back last time out over this course and remains 1lb below last winning mark over this CD and should run a solid race. 1pt win Irish Jugger 15/8 bet365

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 3.50 Cheltenham trespasser win In a hotel in York using my phone so apologies! Backed this horse for Cheltenham yesterday. Big run needed here. Trainer has started career well and expect a big run from trespasser who was very impressive on debut

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Happy new year to everyone :ok

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 *Sea Saffron - Exeter 2:20 e/w @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG* I think in a race of this nature that 9/1 is far too big a price for this horse. Along with the favourite, Sea Saffron is the only other course winner in the field, it has won on soft going and on its last hurdles outing was 3rd off a mark of 104 and runs off 99 tomorrow, subtract Lucy Gardners claim and it is 12 pounds lower than when 3rd @ 20/1 behind Palace Jester in a Class 3 handicap (Palace Jester has come out and won again since), so is 12 pounds lower and drops 2 grades from that run, with that in mind i think it has a huge chance tomorrow.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 1.20 Southwell: Even Stevens @ 3/1 Bet365 This horse loves the Southwell fibresand pretty much according to his impressive course record (5/6). He improved within the last 12 month from 51 to a 91 rated horse, thanks to some quality performances at Southwell in particular. He won comfortably LTO again and looked as he may have still something in hand. A further rise in the mark by six pounds is rather lenient for that performance in my mind so that I'm quite surprised to see him available at 3/1.

[Made_In_Britain]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 2.25 - Musselburgh - GORDONSVILLE - 4/1 - Bet365 - 1pt win Course and Distance winner , Has won his last 2 starts of hurdles and is progressing well both of these wins have been at Musselburgh , so 4/1 looks a very juicy price to hopefully kick start 2012.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 13:20 Falasteen- Certainly has a bit of work to do to get against the others especially Evens Stevens 5/6 on a specialist track. But Jamie can ride this horse and hopefully a quick break from the stalls might help the drop in rating and in class 1pt win 9/1 William Hill

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Chelt 2.10 Hell's Bay win - 14/1 Lads VC On his novice form from last year he has a great chance, but ran badly 2 weeks ago and there is a question mark now. He's had a setback however and might have needed the run lto plus not sure soft at Ascot suited him. Goodish ground at Cheltenham and 2m5f are his conditions and jockey great value for his claim. He'll concede just a few lbs to inferior opposition and if he returns to form, I think 14/1 will represent huge value. All the best in 2012, lads :ok

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Good luck everyone! :nana

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Can I play please...!? It's been a while. New Year n all that! 120 Southwell - Even Stevens - 5 for 6 @ Southwell and 3 for 3 over CD. Last time was the time to be on this one and the overnight 12/1 with Ladcrooks was a great bet (nice bit of aftertiming for first post back!). However, based on his last run which was won in reasonabley comfortable style and his obliteration of the field last March 22nd, the guaranteed 3/1 with various firms looks ok. In the real world - the only thing stopping me backing this horse is the change of stable for which I cannot find a reason. I probably won't at 3s but I do think it is the likely winner. Good Luck All

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 13:05 Cheltenham Sonofvic Win (3,25) William Hill Had a great debut over fenches, where he finished 2l behind Grands Crus. He runs and jump well and might be one to look out for in the future. There are some great runners in this field and invictus could pose a threat, chacing his hattrick but he won against worst company. Sonofvic runs under Nicholls and Welsh. They proved them self, as some of the big guys, again this season, so the 7 year old are in good hands, stablewise. Sonofvic recent form. 1-1-2

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 2.35 Catterick Lesanda ran really well at this C/D and off this mark last season and the booking of Maguire looks a big plus. Ran well in her comeback race lto and the drop in trip as well as the easing of the ground gives her every chance here now. Sure to go very close. 1 Pt win 4/1 Stanjames

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 1305 cheltenham sonovic 5/4 pp 2nd behind grand crus last time out,albeit a 4 horse race,didnt jump the best that day,but with an improvement in jumping this should be well within its grasp,ruby takes the mount of the nichols horse happy new year lads with plenty of winners

[Leedsmycrispsalone]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Hi Not sure if i can enter this or not but as a New Year Resolution I am determined to commit more time and post more. If I can enter this competition: 2:55 Exeter - Golden Chieftain 1 point Won last time out and has won over course and distance Joe onboard if jumping holds out must go very close.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 1.20 Southwell Even Stevens - a C&D winning machine, worth more than 6lb for his latest romp from Monsieur Jamie and the booking of Gibbons looks important for the Dandy Nicholls-Scott Dixon yard. 3/1 Paddy, 1 pt win Happy new year all :ok

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Sou 3.05 - Man Of My word - win at 11/8 BOG Bet365 Sluiced up over this CD last time when dropped in trip (beating my BBotD !) Made all that day and can do the same again in this small field Has a 6lb penalty to carry but the opposition today looks weak and he should have too much speed in the finish for his main rivals, both of which look like they need further

[Tamagin]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 3.35 Southwell – MATAAJIR (7/4 B365) This is a very weak race in which I think Mataajir can carry his 6lb penalty and complete the hatrick. He stayed on well when winning his last two races and this extra furlong should suit he seemed to get bet the further he went. Spacecraft looks his main rival but he had him well held here at Southwell on the 10^th December and the 6lb difference does not look enough to allow him to turn the tables today.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 EVEN STEVENS 3/1 PADDYPOWER southwell 13:20 this horse did the trick for me last time and im confident it can do it again . hes now 5 from 6 at this track and clearly clicks with it hence the large support for it . there are some tought horses in the races but none running particuarly well atm so seems he is able to win this race , he recives a trip up in class but i belive he could just about handle that . my slight concern is a change in trainer however but he has the previous winning jockey on board gramham gibbons so hopefully he can yet again do the business

[BankofKauto]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Making my debut in here I hope its ok. Let me know if I have done anything wrong. 14:45 Cheltenham OSCARGO 1pt Win @ 10/11 (most bookies) Oscargo has only had 3 runs over rules and looks to have improved each time. His win last time was over todays course and distance and I think he will improve beyond the 12lb rise the handicapper has given him. The 2nd favourite Kayf Aramis is the horse Oscargo beat comfortably in his last race, Kayf Aramis has gone up 4lb for that 2nd place and I cant see any reason he will be able to reverse the placings. None of the other horses look well handicapped, Tidal Bay could improve for a move to Paul Nicholls but @ 11 years old I think his best days are behind him.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Cheltenhma 1230: Berbatos EW (5/1 VCBet) Terrific novice hurdle at Cheltenham today and 8 previous winners over sticks plus another three that have won bumpers/points. Berbatos has shown his class when beating the useful Distime at Aintree, he has had to chase Fingals Bay home the last twice and this grade looks more appropriate. Has ran well at the track before so no worries there and the ground will be perfect for him.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012

In the real world - the only thing stopping me backing this horse is the change of stable for which I cannot find a reason.

Scott Dixon is the son of the guy (Paul Dixon) who owns most of these all weather sprinters, either in his own name or in partnerships They've set up a sort of 'satellite yard' near Southwell for Dandy Nicholls team of all weather sprinters owned by the Dixons I suppose the idea is that the main yard in Yorkshire can wind down a bit over the winter to save costs

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 I'm making my debut here. Let's see if I'm good enough :) 2.25 MUSSELBURGH DESERT CRY E/W @ 6/1 (Paddy Power, bet365) I know this horse since his early steps on the Italian turf and have been following him since then. His jumping career started just one year ago and he has made a good impact on the British soil since then with 2 wins and 2 seconds in 7 outs over hurdles. The Donald McCain's gelding impressed me with a nice effort in graded company as a novice last year and his win at Haydock fto earlier this season (18 Nov) was a nice game effort. He was struggling to be settled by Maguire and he was not always fluent over the hurdles but he showed a lot to think he has more to give at this level even with a little raise in weights. Lto he was probably penalized by both facing a tougher test and he pulled too hard. No problem for the ground (he has previously won both on good, soft and heavy) and today's contest should suit more and at the price he looks a good value bet.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Thanks Trotter - I am really wrestling with this one.... I know it's aftertiming but was on at 12/1 last time and I think that maybe swaying me into a bet.... 12/1 off 85 or 3/1 off 91 in a stronger race!? There will be better opportunities along at bigger prices but to coin a Poker expression, 'I am struggling to lay this one down'!!

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 C12.30 Imperial Circus 0.5pt E/W 10/1 Ladbrokes I like to look for horses that have won or run well over a slightly further distance when picking a horse out to stay up the Cheltenham hill and this horse fits the bill. It won well last time out when beating an odds on hotpot over 3 miles and looks sure to be staying on well today. There looks to have been a little money around for it this morning as well and I'm surprised a double figure price is available. The stable's in great form and this looks a decent e/w bet where half of the field look to be making up the numbers.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 3:20 Cheltenham - Oscar Whisky - Back Absolutely top class hurdler who got almost to the top last year. Made a blunder at the last on his seasonal re-appearance which saw him fall at the last when about to get on top. He bounced back lto when winning against a good field. Hasn't yet looked quite the same horse as last year but he should still be good enough to win this 1pt win @ 2/5 Hills BOG

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 12:30 Cheltenham: Jimbill 1pt win 11/1 Victor Chandler Master of the Game may prove too good, however he may be priced up on connections and Nicky Henderson's record. Jimbill ran well here in a bumper so has the essential course form and then won well at Fakenham. Tim Vaughan is in good form.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 2.00 Fairyhouse The Hard Hat win @ 6/1 >Bet365 Colm Murphy's charge won two handicaps earlier in the year both on testing ground at Navan and Wexford. Was then pulled up on two occaisions before bouncing to form last time out at Punchestown. Steps up tp 3M 1F a distance he been succesful over before and looks competitive here.

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Think I'll join in the fun this year if that's ok. Cheltenham 1.05 Solix 5/1 generally with BOG firms I want to take on the favourite here as although he is clearly well thought of and has tons of ability this race will test him to the full over the slightly shorter trip. I expect Champion Court (who jumps well) to take them along at a fair clip here as he stays 3m well on this course. He may even hold on if outjumping the main three but he seems to lack a finishing kick. Of the main two rivals Solix has the most room for improvement as he just jumped ok round here last time, although getting better as the race progressed and I just don't like Invictus at the price given the one he beat last time made several jumping errors. He could be flattered.