England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

[Shipsupstreets]

	Sunday 1 January 2012	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Darlington v Gateshead (12:00 GMT)	11/10	9/4	12/5	107.79 %
	Braintree Town v Cambridge United (15:00 GMT)	13/8	9/4	6/4	108.03 %
	Forest Green Rovers v Kidderminster Harriers (15:00 GMT)	11/8	7/3	7/3	102.17 %
	Grimsby Town v Lincoln City (15:00 GMT)	4/5	5/2	7/2	106.43 %
	Hayes & Yeading v Ebbsfleet United (15:00 GMT)	6/4	12/5	13/8	107.23 %
	Kettering Town v Luton Town (15:00 GMT)	1/50	1/4	1/50	276.08 %
	Southport v Fleetwood Town (15:00 GMT)	8/5	12/5	8/5	106.72 %
	Stockport County v Barrow (15:00 GMT)	15/8	23/10	6/4	105.17 %
	Tamworth v Alfreton Town (15:00 GMT)	19/20	13/5	7/2	99.96 %
	Wrexham v AFC Telford United (15:00 GMT)	2/5	7/2	7	105.63 %
	York City v Mansfield Town (15:00 GMT)	7/10	13/5	4	106.52 %

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Early doors, and I know reverse fixtures rararely play out to the same script, but given yesterday's events 10Bet's 3.34 Kidderminster at FGR and 4.72 Alfreton Town at Tamworth seem generous.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 I think you're reading too much into Alfreton's 5-2 victory over Tamworth on Boxing Day. I remember two years ago in the very same league my English side Wimbledon beat Hayes 5:0 on boxing day and lost the reverse fixture 1:0 5 day later. Just a look at Tamworth's and Alfreton's home and away records leads to conclusion that it's actually the price on home victory that is good value.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

I think you're reading too much into Alfreton's 5-2 victory over Tamworth on Boxing Day. I remember two years ago in the very same league my English side Wimbledon beat Hayes 5:0 on boxing day and lost the reverse fixture 1:0 5 day later. Just a look at Tamworth's and Alfreton's home and away records leads to conclusion that it's actually the price on home victory that is good value.

Kind of academic now because 4.72 is long gone. But I'm also wary of reading too much into the result, and apologies if that didn't come across in my hurried posting this morning: non-league history is littered with holiday thrashings followed by reverses a week later. More pertinent I think is the better form Alfreton have been showing (although away that only means they are being beaten narrowly rather than heavily), and the terrible form that Tamworth have been in since their FA Cup triumph (in fact, they've only beaten Braintree in eight league games). Everton is a week away and is sure to be a distraction. In that context, the price struck me a hefty one.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Im with Ships on this one. Alfreton are playing much better than Tamworth at the moment and could easily be a bet on Sunday. I probably should have backed them on Monday but I thought the price was tight enough really. Also as Ships says Everton will be firmly on their minds.

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Ive had an interest on Gateshead at 2/1 with Bet 365. Given it seems Darlo are about to go into administration I expect the markets to react and the price will be shorter than that come Sunday and at the very least I can lay off for a free bet.

[azzurini1976]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Not an expert in this area, but looking at team websites and stats + bbc reports, i came to some small stakes bets Kidderminster - FG Rovers Saw the h2h results, and it is most common results between those two teams espcially at this venue. Also FGR will want to take positive reuslt form this game, but after is saw report, i dont believe teams will surge as both will be content with a point. last 5 out of 5 games here ended with a draw. Draw @ 3.4 bluesq York - Mansfield I see that York is underperforming lately, while Mansfield is tough cookie to beat away, with only 2 defeats to their name. I reckon that they will sell their skin hard, and 0.5 hcp looks very tasty Mansfield +0.5 @ 2.02 bet365

[azzurini1976]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Stockport County - Barrow Going again with unders as County do look crap in attack, dont know how long they did not score, but it has to be some record now. Saw the report from last game and it looks like a boring game to watch, i expect someting similar here, jut hope goalies wont be still drunk from new year celebration. Also surprised with good price, which fell only some 10% from last game. under 2.5 @ 1.93 sbobet

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Three bets I am considering for New Year's Day from this league are: Fleetwood DNB to beat Southport away @ 1.67 Fleetwood have one of the best away records in the Conference and although they drew with Southport on Boxing Day at home they managed this result with 10 men. Both teams play really well now but Fleetwood haven't lost since early October and they should carry this momentum if they want to keep up with the exceptional Wrexham side. Fleetwood may be distracted by the great match for them in the Cup against Blackpool but it's Mickey Mellon's job to make sure that this distraction is a positive one rather than negative. Grimsby to beat Lincoln at home @ 1.73 Grimsby finally look like they've understood how to grind out results in the Conference. They haven't lost in 7 games now and won 4 out of 5. Although playoffs are a distant possibility they might challenge for them if they manage to carry on this momentum into New Year. Lincoln lost 10 out of their 14 away matches this season and although they are well out of relegation places now they are still a very mediocre team. Tamworth DNB to beat Alfreton at home @ 1.6 Tamworth lost to Alfreton by two goals to five on Boxing Day but reading the reports leaves you with an impression that the high result was pretty much due to the 'shock and awe' of the first three minutes after which the hosts were 2-0 up. After that both teams created their chances and even Alfreton's manager Nicky Law admitted he was disappointed with his team's second half display. Besides, Tamworth may have won just one in their eight games or so but they are pretty much a home team (home record (6-3-2 defeats to strong Luton and FGR) while Alfreton have an awful away record of 1-2-10. Another factor I am considering is that nobody would like to go to their big match at Everton after 4 defeats in a row. Opinions?

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

Ive had an interest on Gateshead at 2/1 with Bet 365. Given it seems Darlo are about to go into administration I expect the markets to react and the price will be shorter than that come Sunday and at the very least I can lay off for a free bet.

Good spot, addpea. The latest from the owner is that he's going to make a decision on the future of the club next week. That means he can at least have the derby gate money to deal with, though I don't believe that he hasn't got a strategy up his sleeve; he wouldn't take the club this far down the tubes to suddenly reverse that strategy. Darlington's unpaid players have been immense in the past few weeks and deserve much credit, though they must have a firmer sense now that they haven't got much chance of seeing their regular wages under the current regime. Even with a big crowd behind them, the current situation (leaking to the press that the club is going into admin, then announcing that nothing is decided quite yet - a classic strategy for getting people used to bad news before actually announcing it) has got to have a demotivating effect. Addpea is surely right to highlight the fixed odds price. Gateshead's away record is decent enough for me to sell the time of the 2nd Gateshead goal at 77 with Spreadex (Sporting have yet to put a quote up about the game). The supremacy - Darlo at 0 - and the Darlo mini-performance at 19 also look like solid sells in the circumstances.

[azzurini1976]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 an off topic question. I have seen through reports on BBC site and i want to ask, are the quotes for shots on goal and shots off target correct, as i have seen some manager statements "we created at least 20 chances...", but on the report card there are 2 or 3 goal attempts noted. So can one trust those report cards or not. I know this info without seeing the game actually is not trustable, but it does give some kind of indication on which way result should go. thanks!

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

an off topic question. I have seen through reports on BBC site and i want to ask, are the quotes for shots on goal and shots off target correct, as i have seen some manager statements "we created at least 20 chances...", but on the report card there are 2 or 3 goal attempts noted. So can one trust those report cards or not. I know this info without seeing the game actually is not trustable, but it does give some kind of indication on which way result should go. thanks!

That's probably just the manager putting on a PR front after a defeat! The stats are usually reliable at BlueSQ Prem level (from the PA, I think). But as you say you can't always trust them, and it's important to understand them in the context of the game and also how a particular team performs. A well-disciplined away side who scores in the first 20 mins may be happy to sit through the rest of the match in their own half, while the opposition huff and puff, creating nothing but the odd scuffed shot on target and lots of blasts from distance over the bar. The stats show the losing side on 58% possession with three on target and ten off, winning seven corners to two, but the visitors were comfortably in control.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Kettering Town are down to 12 bodies for the clash with Luton Town, according to the Northants ET site. I can't see the game being massively different from Boxing Day, and Bet365 are going 2/1 Luton to win both halves and 7/1 to win by 4+, which in the absence of any spreads I'm happy to take. Meanwhile, Darlo boss Craig Liddle has given the squad the day off training following the noises coming from the owners, and saying that it isn't fair to make the unpaid players shell out for petrol money. I doubt if this single development will have a great effect on the team's fortunes on Sunday, but it is tempting to think that a number of the side will be on their phones to their agents instead of drilling set-pieces this morning.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Was going to post this yesterday but Internet was down all day....but I'm with ships on Luton.I may be as mad as a hatter but I've gone 10/10 on Luton @ 1/3 with Padraig powers.That's gone now so I suggest looking in the extra markets for some value. As you know these two played each other on Stephan's(Boxing) day and Luton won 5-0.According to BBC the hatters had 25 shots on goal to the poppies 1 and they also smashed a penalty off the crossbar.They had 70% possession to boot. I find it very hard to see how Kettering can turn that into a win/draw in less than a week even at home.There are some talks of a Boycott from the home fans but I expect a lot of Luton supporters will show up and there should be good support for the away side....

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Jamie Chandler, Darlington's covering midfielder, has Tweeted this afternoon about the awkward moment you go to your bank and your wages aren't there. It appears that none of the players have been paid, which I guess is no surprise. But it's not the action of a club that wants to get the players on side as they negotiate a tricky new year.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

Three bets I am considering for New Year's Day from this league are: Fleetwood DNB to beat Southport away @ 1.67 Fleetwood have one of the best away records in the Conference and although they drew with Southport on Boxing Day at home they managed this result with 10 men. Both teams play really well now but Fleetwood haven't lost since early October and they should carry this momentum if they want to keep up with the exceptional Wrexham side. Fleetwood may be distracted by the great match for them in the Cup against Blackpool but it's Mickey Mellon's job to make sure that this distraction is a positive one rather than negative. Grimsby to beat Lincoln at home @ 1.73 Grimsby finally look like they've understood how to grind out results in the Conference. They haven't lost in 7 games now and won 4 out of 5. Although playoffs are a distant possibility they might challenge for them if they manage to carry on this momentum into New Year. Lincoln lost 10 out of their 14 away matches this season and although they are well out of relegation places now they are still a very mediocre team. Tamworth DNB to beat Alfreton at home @ 1.6 Tamworth lost to Alfreton by two goals to five on Boxing Day but reading the reports leaves you with an impression that the high result was pretty much due to the 'shock and awe' of the first three minutes after which the hosts were 2-0 up. After that both teams created their chances and even Alfreton's manager Nicky Law admitted he was disappointed with his team's second half display. Besides, Tamworth may have won just one in their eight games or so but they are pretty much a home team (home record (6-3-2 defeats to strong Luton and FGR) while Alfreton have an awful away record of 1-2-10. Another factor I am considering is that nobody would like to go to their big match at Everton after 4 defeats in a row. Opinions?

A draw wouldn't surprise me in the Tam/Alf game with the big cup match coming, but given how Tamworth have been playing I was happy to take Alfreton at a big price to win earlier in the week. I suspect the draw is the shrewd call in the Southport/Fleetwood game. Although Fleetwood have the weapons to beat Southport, I think Liam Watson is a much better strategist than Micky Mellon, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he got Southport a result. The Grimsby/Lincoln game is a call I very much agree with. Grimsby have brought in Ian Miller, who was impressive at Darlington until very recently, which will plug a gap at the back. Paul Hurst and Rob Scott have taken some time to get their feet under the table, but I'm convinced they can take Grimsby much further (ones to watch next season). Lincoln have been much better under David Holdsworth, but he is doing the job that Hurst and Scott had to do when they arrived at Grimsby ten months ago. More squad changes have been made this week, but of more relevance to Sunday's game are the injuries that could leave them with no Jamie Taylor and no Francis Laurent up front, and hardly a recognised centre back. The price is too skinny for me, but Grimsby should win.

[MPLouis]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

Grimsby to beat Lincoln at home @ 1.73 Grimsby finally look like they've understood how to grind out results in the Conference. They haven't lost in 7 games now and won 4 out of 5. Although playoffs are a distant possibility they might challenge for them if they manage to carry on this momentum into New Year. Lincoln lost 10 out of their 14 away matches this season and although they are well out of relegation places now they are still a very mediocre team. Opinions?

I think that price on Grimsby is much too short. Grimsby won 2-1 at Lincoln on Boxing Day, but going from the BBC report, it could have gone either way - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_conf/16240445.stm Grimsby's home form is much better than Lincoln's away form. But this is a local derby, and I think the away side should usually get a premium in derbies - they often out-perform their normal standard. So bearing this in mind, and the apparently even match on Boxing Day, I think Lincoln are good value at 5.5 with Bet365. I like the look of Lincoln +0.5 @ 2.25 with the same firm.

[SuperImps]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Im going to grimsby away new year day to hopefully cheer the imps on but at moment we just go in hope we'll get point/all 3. we did today sign a winger and defender til end of the season so go with abit of hope. come on you imps:clap:ok:hope

[SuperImps]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

I think that price on Grimsby is much too short. Grimsby won 2-1 at Lincoln on Boxing Day, but going from the BBC report, it could have gone either way - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_conf/16240445.stm Grimsby's home form is much better than Lincoln's away form. But this is a local derby, and I think the away side should usually get a premium in derbies - they often out-perform their normal standard. So bearing this in mind, and the apparently even match on Boxing Day, I think Lincoln are good value at 5.5 with Bet365. I like the look of Lincoln +0.5 @ 2.25 with the same firm.

Yes in the first half boxing day we bossed the match,alan power ran the show in the middle of the pitch but after half-time we let grimsby get back into it. plus grimsby marked power out the match,. if we had jamie tayloe our star striker fit we could been 3-0-4-0 ahead by half-time. new year day match should be great aslong as taylor fit enough.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

Im going to grimsby away new year day to hopefully cheer the imps on but at moment we just go in hope we'll get point/all 3. we did today sign a winger and defender til end of the season so go with abit of hope. come on you imps:clap:ok:hope

Have to say Danny Lloyd is an excellent signing from Colwyn Bay and I don't think he'll be off the pace at this level. I don't think he'll be at Grimsby, though - he's going to the Colwyn/Vauxhall game to say his farewells. To be honest, I don't think Robbie Williams brings a whole lot to the table and I'm also not sure that he signs officially until next week. Must say that David Holdsworth is doing a grand job at the moment, although this is a transitional team and we won't see its true colours until next season.

[luckotheoirish]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 JP Marna supposed to be returning a game early for Kettering....will he make a difference or is he fit enough to??

[Darran]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 JP is back at Kettering. Will probably make some difference and I dont think Kettering will be as bad as they were on Monday. Still dont trust Luton away from home but still hard not to see them winning but Im not going to get involved. My tips are Cambridge United (took them on on Boxing Day but they got a confidence boosting win and Braintree went back to being poor and couldnt build on the Telford win), Ebbsfleet (much better than Hayes on BD and look a reasonable price to win again) and Alfreton (already been touched on in the thread and they still look value to me)

[kevshat]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

JP Marna supposed to be returning a game early for Kettering....will he make a difference or is he fit enough to??

On the evidence of Monday it will take a hell of a lot more than JP Marna to make a difference to that lot. I've not seen a worse team before. Defensively they were an absolute shambles and it was just sloppyness on our part which kept it down to 5 and a decent performance from their keeper. If we had scored 12 in the game it really wouldn't have flattered them in any way. I don't mean this to sound arrogant but if we harbour hopes of winning this division then Sunday should be another case of however many we want particularly if they are such a shambles defensively again so I endorse everything Ships has written about the game. I'm absolutely amazed that Bet365 are offering 10/11 on the -1 handicap as that looks like the bet of the year to me and it's only the first day of the year. I really don't see us winning by less than 2 goals. You're also right about the crowd luckotheoirish. We've sold 1850 tickets even at the 60% inflated price so we'll have going on for 3/4 of the crowd so it will be like a home game in a lot of ways. I'd imagine we'll sell the remaining 150 on Saturday too.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

JP Marna supposed to be returning a game early for Kettering....will he make a difference or is he fit enough to??

Given his performances at Corby, where he has looked well off the pace in recent matches, it's very unlikely. He hasn't even been that good for Kettering this season and there is definitely a fitness issue.

[Shipsupstreets]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Very interesting statement on the Darlo website from Jamie Chandler, following a meeting between Chandler and the owner Raj Singh. The unpaid Chandler says he's now more sympathetic to the owner after the chat, and there are things that can't be discussed publicly which has led Singh to take the measures he has. One has to read between the lines here, but I think this might relate to the owner's own financial position. Chandler says the players trained positively today (after being given a day off by Craig Liddle yesterday) and remain thoroughly committed to the cause. Even if you allow for a slight dose of home-site propaganda, I think this clearly shows there will be no exodus just yet, although if anyone comes in with any offers the assets will surely be cashed. I am sure that will play a part tomorrow as the better players contemplate a career elsewhere. The team also looks slightly compromised, with Liam Hatch crocked and few options up front.

[maliniok]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1

Three bets I am considering for New Year's Day from this league are: Fleetwood DNB to beat Southport away @ 1.67 Fleetwood have one of the best away records in the Conference and although they drew with Southport on Boxing Day at home they managed this result with 10 men. Both teams play really well now but Fleetwood haven't lost since early October and they should carry this momentum if they want to keep up with the exceptional Wrexham side. Fleetwood may be distracted by the great match for them in the Cup against Blackpool but it's Mickey Mellon's job to make sure that this distraction is a positive one rather than negative. Grimsby to beat Lincoln at home @ 1.73 Grimsby finally look like they've understood how to grind out results in the Conference. They haven't lost in 7 games now and won 4 out of 5. Although playoffs are a distant possibility they might challenge for them if they manage to carry on this momentum into New Year. Lincoln lost 10 out of their 14 away matches this season and although they are well out of relegation places now they are still a very mediocre team. Tamworth DNB to beat Alfreton at home @ 1.6 Tamworth lost to Alfreton by two goals to five on Boxing Day but reading the reports leaves you with an impression that the high result was pretty much due to the 'shock and awe' of the first three minutes after which the hosts were 2-0 up. After that both teams created their chances and even Alfreton's manager Nicky Law admitted he was disappointed with his team's second half display. Besides, Tamworth may have won just one in their eight games or so but they are pretty much a home team (home record (6-3-2 defeats to strong Luton and FGR) while Alfreton have an awful away record of 1-2-10. Another factor I am considering is that nobody would like to go to their big match at Everton after 4 defeats in a row. Opinions?

Thanks for opinions to everyone. Following MP Luis's advice I am going to leave Grimsby-Lincoln alone, especially that the price now dropped slightly to 1.63. Despite what Shipsupstreet said I am going to take: Double of Fleetwood DNB to beat Southport away @ 1.67 and Tamworth to beat Alfreton DNB at home @ 1.6. Acca 2.67 with Will Hill Reasoning mainly above but I have just looked at all Southport's home games this season and maybe apart from Cambridge they haven't beaten any top team yet. Barrow, Telford, Bath, Alfreton and Mansfield (other teams beaten by Southport at home) hardly set the world alight and they drew with Lincoln, Wrexham, York and Tamworth and lost to Forest Green, Gateshead and Braintree. Judging by that plus Fleetwood's away form, I reckon a draw is the worst that may happen to The Cod Army.

[greenberg99]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 I don't know what game superimp was at but it certainly wasn't the one I was at... First half Grimsby were dreadful but bar one decent save Lincoln never looked like scoring until out defensive mix up. We won't have another half like the first 45 today and in Hearn up front we have got the stand out forward in the division. Although priced a little short take Grimsby to win at home.

[FCP]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South Dec 31-Jan 2

Event	Hayes & Yeading - Ebbsfleet
Selection	Ebbsfleet
Strength	10/10
Date	01/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.50
Reasoning	Ebbsfleet is a better side than Hayes, like they proved in the last Boxing Day when they received today's opponent and won by 3-1. They are like this more moralized and won confidence toward this game. Hayes has the second worst defensive record of this Conference and tho worst things, they are passing by a goalkeeper crisis. Ebbsfleet winning today will almost assure they won't have problems with the danger of relegation and they will also can start thinking in higher targets.

[dabic]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 BlueSQ Bet Prem 16:00 Kettering - Luton / over 2.5 / 1.73 / sportingbet / Kettering team in all sorts of troubles entering this game, If I read it good they have around 15 players for this one...Luton took them out 5-0 in first game and last time they where here they won 3-1...This teams played 3 overs in last 3 h2h matches totals of 5,4 and 4. Kettering has 58% of overs this season 15 out of 26 till Lutons stat is a little bit low just 44% of overs this season. Kettering has last 5 out of 7 games gone over at home till Luton scored at least a goal in last 7 road games. I tip for over here!

[azzurini1976]

Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Jan 1 Luton -1.75 @ 2.17 sbobet As were stated in reports is found on the team pages Kettering were able to put only two subs on the bench last time out, and even those two were fresh our of injury players. So basicall i dont see things changing so much in four days, and Kettering might get another problem game. In previous game, Luton totally dominated and could have won it even higher. Luton also recovers James Dance and Jake Howells who both missed on previous game. All in all i see one way traffic again, as Kettering looks firstly to weak and also in personel problems. IMO only one outcome is possible here, and im taking it despite high hcp.