BBOTD Wed 7th Dec

[Jimmy2shoes]

Sole runner for trainer D K Ivory at Kempton Race 3' on the card. The 6yr old ran a good race last time out back on the 9th of Nov here at kempton. H e came from stall 3 that day and has another crack at taking home some prize money from stall 2. He also comes down another 2lb is sure to get the trip and looks like he likes Kempton Park. Jockey A.Kirby has some nice rides and he gets the leg up. Kempton Park 4:50 - ELLEMUJIE. 0.5 e/w bet 8/1 Hills.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Perlachy - Wolverhampton 3:50 Has won 2 on the bounce now, both at Wolverhampton but has won twice at Kempton in the past, so likes this course too. Is up another 6 pounds to a mark of 66, but won off 66 back in February 2010 so the extra weight should be no problem. Had Suddenly Susan back in 3rd last time out and Suddenly Susan romped home today by a wide margin so the form has been franked. Ron Harris is in good form and has had 2 wins from his last 8 runners at the track, and Luke Morris is in great form also and does well at Kempton. Should go well once more. WIN @ 11/2 Hills BOG

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 15:00 Leicester RANJOBAIE hasn’t shown a great deal since leaving Nicky Henderson but I’m expecting a much better effort today with a run under his belt for a yard whose runners have generally been needing an outing, and off a mark of 129 he looks attractively handicapped if getting back to anything like his best. He was a very talented novice hurdler for the aforementioned trainer, finishing only a whisker behind the winner in a Grade 3 event at Sandown over this trip, being very game in defeat. That was off this very handicap mark and he looked like a horse that could definitely be competitive off marks in the 140’s. That was in March 2010 and although he’s struggled since, he’s had an interrupted career with plenty of absences, along with not taking to fences very well (still ran well on one occasion). Reverting back to hurdles when last seen, he was pitched into a very tough class 2 hurdle at Haydock. He’d have likely struggled had he being in ideal shape anyway and should come on bundles for that run, especially as other Venetia Williams inmates have been doing similar after her customary slow-start to the Jumps campaign. Today, he drops down to a more modest 0-130 level and it’s the weakest race he’s faced over hurdles for some time. This is quite a competitive contest with two unexposed horses leading the market. There is no value in either of them really and I’d rather look elsewhere. Ranjobaie does have to bounce back in a pretty big way but I don’t think that’s unlikely. Better for the run, he has ground to suit and has no problem with this 2m4f trip, especially a testing one. The 4lb drop in the ratings back to a very workable mark of 129 is only a good thing and the more positive booking of Aidan Coleman (only ride today) will only be of benefit. He’s 20/1 and although he’s hardly the most likely winner, he’s still decent value as he has plenty in his favour today and should be around the 8/1 mark. If coming on the run, he’ll go well. RANJOBAIE; 1pt @ 20/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 1520 hexham mr chippy 1pt win 10/3 bet365 easy winner last time out,albeit over 2mile 3, todays trip of 3 mile 1, will take some doing, but with the heavy ground, it should relish the trip, and i am prepared to take the chance on stamina

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 17:50 Kempton Next Cry Win (3,75) Bet365 Next Cry are looking for his first back to back win. He won his first race over course and distance, back in november. He is up 5lb but that seems like peanuts compared to his top rival Night Flash, who must overcome at stunning 10lb. Nexy Cry won by 1 1/2l on is second start at polytrack. Nexy Cry recent form. 5-4-6-3-1 The jockey O´Neill gets his 4th run, whit this Richard Hannon colt. O´Neill have shown decent form lately, winning 17,65 % of his runs.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 1.10 Lingfield Wouldnt normally touch a seller but this isnt the worst race in the world. Those at the bottom of the weights look up against it accept maybe Finefrenzyrolling who will need to improve a few pound on what he has shown to date in first time cheekpieces. On official ratings Ezra Church is the best in here by a 1lb but he showed little interest at Southwell last time out where he is a previous CD winner and has gone well fresh in the past so was disappointing. Stevie Gee is another that is potentially well in at the weights only a 1lb worse off officially with Ezra Church, did win a claimer at Wolves in Sept but 3rd on penultimate start was a reasonable effort in a seller but bombed out disappoittingly last week around here and has shaped as if 7f around here is a minimum. Dvinsky is an out and out front runner and has shown a return to form recently and a good 2nd last time out in a handicap reads well but probably only ran upto his current mark which leaves him a bit to find at the weights and unlikely to get a soft lead with Ezra Church and a couple of the outsiders likely to race up with the pace. Pipers Piping will enjoy the strong gallop that should be available, he has refound his form recently and he is the sort of horse that holds his form well. Far too keen for his own good last time out and worth another chance has run well here before and doesnt have a huge amount to find at the weights and this race looks setup for him. Although not biggest fan of jockey she does take off 5lb which makes him look well in. 1pt win Pipers Piping

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 2.10 Lingfield Jamie Spencer is one of my favourite jockeys on front runners and his excellent record for David Barron is well known. In the last five years his record is 16-57 (28 %) with LSP of +33.63. They teamed up with AMITOLA here last time and she hasn't been hit hard for that win. Could be more to come over this trip under Spencer again. 4/1 Paddypower, 1 pt win

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Tornado Force - 2.40 Lingfield* This horse looks to have a good shout here. The trainer Jeremy Noseda has won with 2 of his last two horses in Britain and it is his only horse tomorrow. This will be it's second run for Noseda after having a good run last time out, finishing second in between two horses which have gone on to win races. This race may depend on the horses stamina but If it can stay it will hopefully win. (but with my recent strike-rate it will most likely lose!) Tornado force win @ 9/2 Ladbrokes

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 2.10 ling AMITOLA - J spencer teams up with barron again today and like said fin said above strike rate is good, spencer rode last time on a nice front running ride stall 5 will allow this again, only went up 3lb for the win lto and always looked like it would win that day 3lb could be very lenient and there is more to come from this fellow. 1pt win 4/1 hills paddys boyles vcs

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec kempton 16:50 zerbrano 18/1 E/W william hill , runs in difficult fields of late and of a larger and higher class than this , dropped in class and feild size last 2 times at this track has come to a win for this runner , the price is too big fair chance of hitting frame .

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 3.20 Hexham Treehouse is very well handicapped here and if running near to his best will go very close here. Small stable but in decent form and also gets his ground here Definitely worth an interest as he is 5lbs below his last winning mark. 1 Pt win 5/1 VCBet

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Ling 2.10 - Numeral - win at 11/2 bog Boylesports A couple of in form horses head the market for this competitive handicap The likely favourite is Amitola who won impressively over CD last time out and is probably a worthy favourite to follow up. He made all that day and ran on well when challenged in the home straight. My doubts for today are that he has a couple of front runners drawn inside him and could well go off too fast if Spencer tries to get the lead My horse has been improving steadily at Kempton having won 2 and put up a better performance in a narrow defeat last time. He's gone up 3 lbs for that 2nd but Hannon gives the ride to the very useful claimer, K O'Neill, who takes the 3 off. O'Neill rides Lingfield well and has won 3 races here in the last couple of weeks Numeral is happy tracking the pace and hopefully the front runners will do each other in and leave it to something coming from behind to pick up the pieces

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 3:00 Leicester - Dhaafer - 1pt @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Alan King has his string in fine order of late and Dhaafer, his only runner of the day, could step up on his previous form this season now that he gets a stiffer test of stamina. The main worries are whether he's good enough to overhaul the pair who are dominating the market but they look quite a fair way short (in the betting) to me in a race of this nature and taking a chance by opposing them looks to be the best option. What I'm most looking forward to is seeing King's 4-year-old gelding running at a relatively stiff track in a race where they're likely to go a good clip, with the free-going and speedy Fiendish Flame being the one who should ensure that there'll be a generous gallop if he's not left alone in front (was last time out). Dhaafer has always shaped as if he'd relish a good test at around this 2m 4f trip and although he was beaten a fair way from home last time out, that came at the sharp Fontwell track on soft ground in a race where he was held up in rear, which isn't ideal. He only ran on past beaten horses in the closing stages (wasn't given a hard time) but with race-fitness likely to be improved for having had a couple of runs this season, he should be coming to hand any time soon. The King yard actually punted him quite a bit on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby but he was expected to be fitter than he proved to be (according to his trainer) and it was a relatively encouraging run despite the fact that he weakened out of it a few flights from home. Robert Thornton is back on board Dhaafer for the first time this season and that's another positive. The better ground should also be much more up his street and the handicapper has dropped him 3lbs since his last run a few weeks ago. Interestingly, connections now reach for a visor to replace the cheek pieces that were on last time out and hopefully that will help him to find the bit of improvement needed to win here. King also reports that he has been pleasing him at home, although it's probably best to take that as a pinch of salt. If the market leaders don't run up to scratch (fav has plenty in hand for winning easily over C&D last week but 2/1 is a bit skinny; second fav priced on potential improvement), I'm very hopeful that this fellow will run a good race and 9/1 looks like a decent price about him. Small/medium win stakes will do the job and hopefully he'll be there or thereabouts at the business end.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Put this on the wrong thread earlier...

Bold Sir Brian - 12.40 Hex 1pt Win 4/5 B365 Not much of a price but I really like this horse and the form lines surrounding him. Plus I thought it was a particularly tough day. Bold Sir Brian didn't disgrace himself in novice hurdling company last year and has been sent straight over bigger obstacles this year. He has finished second in both his two runs this season, beaten by two potentially very smart horses and I don't see anything of their caliber in today's field. First time out he made a few novicey mistakes but he ran on very gamely to finish a good second to Frascati Park. Two winners have already come out of that race. Last time out he bumped into Kudu Country (subsequently beaten by Frascati Park) on ground that probably wasn't ideal. But it was a pleasing run and he jumped better. He's only a 5year old and very lightly raced so should have plenty of improvement in him. He's interesting from a breeding perspective (by Brian Boru) and hopefully Lucinda Russell's young gelding can win his first beginners chase today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Hexham 2.50 Code Blue win - 3/1 Bet365 Lads Bit of a non-trier lto, when given a strange ride, but they probably knew he will need the run. Should be fit and ready today and I see him as a progressive horse, who will win fair few before handicapper gets him right. Hopefully he'll settle, because he sometimes tends to race keen. If he does, he will be very hard to beat today.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 300 Leicester: Risaala EW 18/1 VCBet Struggling to find one today so i'll give Risaala a chance in the competitive handicap at Leicester. Pam Sly's string have been going well of late and this one ran in Class 1 race at Wetherby on his seasonal debut when btn 20l by Alasi. Then ran in a small field at Huntingdon where the pace wouldnt have suited. This track and how the race will be run will be much better for the Mare. She won twice last seaon and is now down to a decent mark and could spring a surprise at a fair price.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 12:40 Leicester - Cristal Gem - Back The least exposed of these but easily the most consistent. Won 2 starts ago and was only narrowly denied lto but the return to today's 7f trip looks a definite positive. The name us don looks the one for the forecast but won only a poor race Leo and not taking that form too literally. Great chance for Cristal Gem here 1pt win @ 4/7 Bet365 BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Stopped Out 12.20 Hexham. 1 point win. Needs to find a shade with the favourite on the bare form of things. However, the trip and ground's fine and the favourite doesn't appear to forceful in a fight. I think we can jump well and be more consistent to win. 7/2 Boylesports (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec THE THIRSTY BRICKY 1.20 Hexham. 1 point win. A bit risky with fitness issues, but handles this very testing ground and could be better caught fresh. The trip is fine and all others have their own questions to answer, so with it looking a race that 1 of any can win, I'd be with us at the odds. 15/2 Victor Chandler BOG

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Dvinsky - 1.10 Lin (e/w 14-1 LAD BOG) Fine old stager who showed he had lost none of his enthusiasm when runner-up in a 6f handicap at Kempton last time out, and the return to a (small field) 7f may even be to his advantage. Draw isn't ideal for a FR and is a huge drifter in the market today, which is obviously worrying. However, at this price I'm going to take on the crowd.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 2.40 Lingfield - 1pt win Sand Skier @ 7/1 (Bet365) Taking on the Noseda horse in the hope he doesn't get home, or again is outpaced, and I think Sand Skier is a live chance in this race with conditions to suit. Formerly useful for Mark Johnston, he's done well for Hans Adielsson without winning, but that can change today. Was rated in the 90s but was never raced over 12f until right at the end of his stint with his former trainer, and he was out of form at the time. Has dropped to a workable mark of 73 now with Nicole Norblad's claim also, and has been running well on the all-weather. Forget his effort from the front over 14f and he's never run badly for this yard. 1m4f is his optimum seemingly and gets that today. Stayed on well on his two starts at the trip recently, finishing 2nd on both occasions. The form of the second effort is good, and he put a few lengths between himself and the 3rd horse. He also found much trouble in running but still finished well. Last time out he found 10f too sharp, but kept on in the closing stages having come wide, and the step back up in trip will suit a lot. The concern would be the track as it's possible he'd be better suited to Wolverhampton, but should still run well, and will definitely expose any chinks in the opposition's armour. There are a few chances, but I don't see why my selection has any less chance than the majority.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Nicole Nordblad isn't very good. Yet I still back Adielsson's runners sometimes. Foolish.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec

Nicole Nordblad isn't very good. Yet I still back Adielsson's runners sometimes. Foolish.

Seems harsh to blame her if she was only carrying out given instructions to lead from the front, which is a difficult ask for any jockey over 10f+ at Lingfield. And Sand Skier is a hard horse to win with, whatever the tactics.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 4.50 Kempton: Scamperdale 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 BOG This price looks big for this horse. Although plying it's trade most recently in claimers unsuccessfully, the handicap mark has slipped and now looks quite attractive. C&D winner so trip no issue, Jimmy Fortune a positive booking and drawn 1 which should suit the horses prominent racing style - ran well in better handicap company than this in September from 8lbs higher so tonights mark of 82 makes the horse quite a tempting proposition at 20/1.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 4.50 Kempton True To Form win 15/2 VC Bet Probably crazy to nap this one today as the horse is carrying 15lbs more weights today after a career best performance last time out. Since that very comfortable win at Wolverhampton this horse has changed stables and has now joined Ron Harris who is in good form. Luke Morris rides today and he does well for the stable. This is a much better race than the race he won last time out but the manner of the victory suggests he could be competitive here today. It is fair to say this horse loves the all weather with 6 wins coming from 11 runs. On his last 2 starts on the all weather, he won them both and he may still be improving, given his latest victory was a career best and he won by 6 lengths that day. He also has 2 wins to his name at Kempton so hopefully he will run well!

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec 4.50 Kempton - Uphold 28/1 VC E/W Big price on this one who's been weak in the market today. Looks the only front runner in the field with a lot of these wanting to be held up. Has been running in claimers of late, winning one at Wolverhampton two starts ago. Down to a nice mark back in handicap company as well as dropped to 10f. Goes round here and although drawn 8 of 14 isnt the best, there doesnt look much else to take him on.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Wed 7th Dec Races after 4.50

17:50 Kempton Next Cry Win (3,75) Bet365 Next Cry are looking for his first back to back win. He won his first race over course and distance, back in november. He is up 5lb but that seems like peanuts compared to his top rival Night Flash, who must overcome at stunning 10lb. Nexy Cry won by 1 1/2l on is second start at polytrack. Nexy Cry recent form. 5-4-6-3-1 The jockey O´Neill gets his 4th run, whit this Richard Hannon colt. O´Neill have shown decent form lately, winning 17,65 % of his runs.