BBOTD 19th October

[chris34]

8.50 Kempton Plenty of pace on in this race with Norse Blues, Dens Gift and Gaily Noble all known to push on from the front and Dens Gift has a tendency to go off to fast these days and burn up will suit anything behind as he generally struggles to win these days despite running well at times. Santefisio won well over CD last month but has always struggled when mark hits the mid 80s and this looks a hotter race and has something to prove off this sort of mark. Flowing Cape took advantage of a drop in grade on good terms in a claimer to win last time out but had four trys over mile including when in form and has failed to offer much and this looks competitive for him these days. Moynahan is a frustrating sort offer runs a good race that suggest he is capable of better next time out but fails to deliver ever time, 2 wins from 38 starts is hardly inspiring despite this race likely to be run to suite and does have some form on the AW is opposable with such a poor strike rate. Big Bay would have a chance if anywhere near his best but his overall profile is very off putting just completly bombs out 99% of the time but does seem to go better here than others and is a 1lb lower than last win but awful effort last time out enough to avoid and small break to also overcome. Ree's Rascal ran a cracker after a break last time out over a trip that he probably found a bit sharp, should be suited to this return to a mile and a strongly run race but he is 14lb above his last winning mark which could be a big ask for a horse that has been on the go all year and will need to continue sharp upward curve to take this and at current prices he is too much of a risk and form of the yard is off putting had a rather quiet summer. Fanshawe and Fallon have teamed up well just recently to land a few punts and also get Fallon some vital winners and they must hold a strong hand again in this race with Snow Magic who hasnt been seen for over 3 months having won with great ease over CD, only 4lb higher and still completely unexposed on this surface with just 4 runs with 3 wins. Concern is obviously the break but yard do pretty well with fresh horses, she will need them to go fast upfront as she clearly stays further and this is probably not her best trip. The other worry has to be that the form of her last win has worked out very disappointingly but she is so unexposed she clealry still has improvement in her. Red Somerset is better on the AW than turf and although most of his wins these days come in claimers he can be competitive in handicaps as he showed last time out over CD when staying on strongly towards the finish off this mark, should get a race run to suit and well handicapped if running anywhere near to his best although that cant be guaranteed with his nature but well worth a saver! The other that looks worth of a small E/W bet is Round Won who has been off the track for nearly 2 months having looked amiss last 2 runs, hopefully they have sorted that out and the addition of the hood for the first time would suggest they want a good run rather than just see how he gets on after a break. He was an impressive winner over this course over 2f further back in February handicapper hit him fairly hard for that rising him 9lb he then ran a great race in a conditions event which earnt him another 1lb but has generally struggled since then but could be capable of better if anywhere near his best again. 1pt win Snow Magic 9/2 hills

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 16:20 Worchester Illysantachristina Win (4,33) Boylesports The 8 year old mare, showed decent form lately at Ffos Las, when second over at simular going and distance. Now she gets the chance to revenge her self, off the same mark. She have riden her best this season and won 3 and placed in 1 in 8 runs. Illysantachristina recent form. 1-6-1-6-2 The jockey Aodhagan Conlon gets his 3th run, on the horse. He was on board on one of the recent wins.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 2.05 navan Jedward - he has the misfortune of having the same name as some of the most annoying z-list celebs on the planet but is lightly raced having had a mid season break and ran well at the curragh last time behind the progressive Maarek. Now racing from within the handicap proper he's 3lb lower and should go well. 5/1 Boylesports, 1 pt win

[Tull]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 14.10 Worcester Kentford Grey Lady 1pt win SP Won well on debut, upped to Listed LTO but trainer confessed to getting the strategy all wrong. Putting a line through that run then has an excellent chance in this

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 16:20 Worcester MAID OF SILK has been shaping like 2m4f could be her sort of trip on her previous starts at two miles and she should run a decent race if heavy rain stays away and the ground doesn’t get too testing. The Neil Mullholland trained 5 year old mare has had nine starts to date and has only got in front once, that being over 2 miles in a novice hurdle back in May. On that occasion she looked like a mare that would get further in time so it has been a surprise to see her continuously campaigned at the 2 mile trip. On all three of her starts since for example, she looked like she’d potentially get further so it’s of no surprise she’s been tried at 2m4f before softer ground sets in. One example of which was when last seen on the racecourse, when running at Worcester when she didn’t have the speed in the closing stages in a competitive (for the grade) handicap over 2 miles. She’s now 1lb lower than that and interestingly, that race has worked out quite well with two horses winning since so it was a respectable effort nonetheless. A big worry for this selection is if plenty of rain materialises, as she doesn’t go that well on a softer surface and she seems to enjoy decent ground. Small amounts of rain are forecast so I’ll take my chance that plenty of it stays away. Another positive factor for this selection is that Neil Mullholland is going pretty well at the moment, with two winners from his last five runners. This race is also full of unreliable types, who don’t always show their best whilst Maid of Silk does seem to be fairly consistent in defeat and has held her form well enough over the summer. It may be that she doesn’t have the stamina to stay the extra four furlongs but she’s shaped encouragingly over two miles and I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt, especially at odds of 8/1. To me she should be a 5/1 chance and is a piece of value in a race that won’t take much winning if she gets the extra yardage (bred to) and the rain stays away, she’ll have a decent chance. Maid Of Silk; Win @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 19th October Worc 4.55 - Restezen D.Amour - win at 5/2 bog bet365 This one won on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago at Bangor, gets the trip, acts on the going This appears to be a better race and he's up in the weights but he won quite convincingly last time and might come on a bit for the run Mainly it's a process of elimination. Of the 6 other runners four are making their seasonal debuts with no record of going well fresh, one is a dubious stayer and the other has been tailed off on both his runs this season At least my fellow is fit and in form

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 19th October Safarjal - Newmarket 1:30 Pleasing debut run when 6th of 17 to Firdaws at Salisbury over 6f. Forgive of the Hannon stable finished behind in 9th that day and Forgive came out and won today at 17/2 so the form is franked. Wasnt fancied that day, went off 33/1 so in circumstances it was a great run. This horse is also down in grade, that was a Class 3 race and tomorrow is a Class 5 maiden. Has a good chance. WIN @ 11/1 VC BOG

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD 19th October Leqqaa - Newmarket 2:30 1pt win 2/1 PP BOG In the Racing Post Trophy this weekend I've backed Fencing (7/2) I'm hoping his form will be given a boost today by Leqqaa. Leqqaa's form looks rock solid to me and he's now dropped in grade. In his four runs he won his maiden first time out, was then 2nd to Coupe de Ville (beaten a sh), 3rd to Fencing and 3rd to Caledonian Spring after breaking slowly from the stalls. Its his run behind Fencing that I marked him down as worth following. That was over 7f where he got a bit outpaced a couple of furlongs out but stayed on nicely to the line under a tender enough Richard Hills ride. As for today's opposition - Hannon has 2 runners and Leqqaa should have the beating of Red Seventy on a line through Crius. Lordoftheshadows is the more fancied of the pair but I just didn't like his last 2 runs (looked all over the winner when beaten by Frog Hollow when push came to shove and well beaten by Kinglet which doesn't inspire). Jubilance could be the main danger stepping up to a mile but I just think Leqqaa's form is much more solid than the opposition.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 430 Fontwell: Sovereign Spirit EW (11/1 VCBet,Betfred) This one won three times in June showing he was a much improved horse and was bought by present connections after winning a seller very easily. Shot up in the weights and was beaten a couple of times when running over an inadequate trip. Last time showed like he was returning to form when third over 3 miles at Uttoxeter, he led at the last that day and now drops to the same trip as when he won that seller in good style. The race doesnt look great and should be able to get involved at a fair price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 4:30 Fontwell: Lady Karabaya 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Lady Karabaya has left Henrietta Knight and joined Sarah Humphrey. There is very little worth while form to recommend Lady Karabaya however there has been the odd flash where if a change of surroundings does the trick a decent run may result. Sarah Humphrey is having a good season as is a trainer on the up. Mark Marris takes off ten pounds and could open his account here.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 19th October

2.05 navan Jedward - he has the misfortune of having the same name as some of the most annoying z-list celebs on the planet but is lightly raced having had a mid season break and ran well at the curragh last time behind the progressive Maarek. Now racing from within the handicap proper he's 3lb lower and should go well. 5/1 Boylesports, 1 pt win

Ahh you just like that name cos you have been to a few of their gigs.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 2:50 Fontwell - Escort'men - Back Comfortably the best of this field over hurdles and usually that translates into the same over fences, albeit not always and to varying degrees. If he jumps a decent round he should have little problem in seeing off this lot and the perfect pilot on board to help school him 1pt win@ 8/15 Paddy Power BOG

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 2120 kempton loyalty 0.5 e/w 10/1 bet365 has won 3 races in his career including a c/d win last month when making all to win, wide draw a concern, but with last time jockey fanning on aboard,if he can get the horse into a prominent position ,without too much effort a repeat can be the card

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 4.20 Worcester Maid Of Silk looks to have been crying out for this step up in trip. Has run fairly consistently with one win and numerous placed efforts but now up in trip should have a great chance to double her win tally. Stable in fine form and dropping down the weights again. 1 Pt win 6/1 hills

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 19th October First time up for trainer M.Blake who's has been in pretty good form, his 3yr old gelding is by BARATHEA but he could be anything. Trainer M.Blake has 3 runners today but this is his sole runner at Worcester, its a N/H flat race a race type i love haveing a good look at. Jockey N.Scolfield has 4 rides today but i'll take a wee chance in him with the last race on the card. Both trip and ground are both unknown! Worcester 5:30 - Sporting boy. 0.5 e/w bet 16/1 The Magic sign ''Lads'' Be a good sport.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 19th October CHILBURY HILL 3.50 Worcester. 1 point win. Ground cutting up, which he likes and with the trip and being dropped a pound suitable too, I think he can go close. Should be able to run a big race on this ground. 13/2 Victor Chandler.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 19th October Morenito 4.00 Fontwell. 1 point win. In form, which cannot be said for most of the others, and stays this trip well, which also cannot be said about most of the others. The ground's fine and although has a big weight, should still go close. 5/1 Boylesports (bog)

[smashers]

Re: BBOTD 19th October Newmarket 5.20 POETIC LORD to win 11/2 hills Penalty to carry but won eased down last time out and there looks like there could be more to come, chasing a hat trick over an extra furlong. The yard are in good form and this horse front runs, which seems a little more favourable under the new whip rules (enough said about them!!). This horse has made dramatic improvement since handicapping and may take a bit of beating off this kind of mark.

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 6:20 Kempton STEEL CITY BOY @ 12/1 e-w Ladbrokes Ran well lto when 4th but was first of the group on his side of the track, most of his career wins have been on the AW so return to Kempton should suit and is on a mark he is capable of winning off if all goes well.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 7.50 Kempton Mary Frith @ 28/1 e/w Boylesports This is a poor maiden and this horse wouldn't need to be anything special to take it. This horse is closely related to winners at this distance and I do like the horses pedigree. Stable are in ok form with their runners running as you would expect. Luke Morris does well at the track and is one of few jockeys that shows a profit.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 8:50 Flowing Cape @ Kempton - Wasn't a far away 4th two runs back here at Kempton only going down by under 2 lengths when staying on.Dropped down in class latest to win a class 6 at Wolverampton.Will get the distance no problem and George Baker takes the ride. 0.5 pt E/W @ 16/1 VCBet

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 19th October Islesman - Kem 9.20 (0.5e/w 22/1 SJ) Fairly lightly raced 3YO with only 9 runs on the clock. Seems far better on polytrack than turf, where he has been unsighted in all four runs. That being the case, it does not seem too unreasonable to draw a line over his last run at Ascot. Prior to that he beat Loyalty (reopposes today) over CD. Has been off the track since July, which is obviously a negative, but at 22-1 seems worth an e/w shot.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD 19th October 8.20 Kemp Sioux City Sue ew 40/1 bet365 Bit of a shot In the dark here as been off track for 2yrs since making its debut as a 3yo and now races in an average maiden. On debut wasn't really anything to write about , struggled a bit and didn't find anything at windsor 10f and upped in trip tonight to a mile and 4f. As mentioned above it does have a long lay off but sire noverre offspring seems to do well when fresh and with the stable in ok nick can outrun its odds.