BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October

[Aidymac]

Needie Mccredie - Newcastle 4:30 Is having a very good year so far and is improving all the time, winning at Carlisle twice thus far. Ran quite well on its last run at Thirsk when 5th to Lizzie back in July, trading at a low of 2.12 in running. Has had a break since and should be fit and ready to make its presence felt tomorrow. What interests me bigtime is its form on good to soft ground, out of 6 runs on the ground it has 1 win and 4 seconds, so absolutely loves this ground. James Turner does not have many horses but he does fairly well when he runs them. Paddy Aspell has rode a winner for him at Newcastle previously and 14/1 available is too big. E/W @ 14/1 Hills BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October H4.20 Only Witness 1pt Win 5/1 Paddy Power This horse is lightly raced and has shown improved form on its last 2 outings when upped in trip. The win LTO when beating 16 rivals is of particular interest and I fancy the horse to defy the rise in the handicap today. Many of its rivals are more exposed and I think Brendan Powell might have found a good opportunity for this one again. There's only a few bookies that have priced it up at the moment, but most are going 4/1 and 9/2 so I'll take the 5's whilst I can.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October Boulder5111 has beat me to it and i don't like posting a tip when its already been put up so i'll stick with the same meeting but wish him the best of luck. I'll go with Race 4 on the card at Huntingdon and go with one that sadly fell last time out, we will never know if he would have won or not that day but there was some good cash around for him. Its trainer B.Bowen's sole runner at the meeting and jockey T.OBrien's sole ride too, when the 7yr old fell last time out it was his first time on the floor and if his confidence has not been dented he shold run a close race. Huntingdon 3:50 - Natural Action. 0.5 e/w bet @ 4/1 Paddy Power. Safe round needed Karen.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 15:30 Newcastle Moonlight Mystery Win (6,00) Boylesports The young maiden, are still looking for her first win. That might come at Newcastle, after an impressiv run at the same course a month ago. Back then the ground was soft and it will properly be the same again this time. That might be to her avantage. Moonlight Mystery recent form. 0-7-6-9-2 The jockey William Buick got a decent record at this track, where he previous won 18,8 % of his races.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 5.00 Newcastle Not the best day of racing to get stuck back into big fields full of low grade animals typical end of season racing but despite that there are a few interesting runners that catch my eye in this staying handicap. Riptide has been running well of late but again suggesting he really wants a test staying on at the death but never nearer and this tempers enthusiasm behind him, and with blinkers being swapped for cheekpieces unlikely to have a drastic effect and he doesnt look that well treated off a 8lb higher mark than last winning mark. Dr Finley is another that tends to place more than he wins and best form seems to have come on faster ground than what is likely today. Spice Bar has been a revelation this season with 4 wins over hurdles and one of the flat, 10lb higher today than last win and was bitterly disappointed 2 weeks ago over jumps and season may just be catching up with him now. Lady Bluesky looks massively overprices in my opinion and is already attracting plenty of support in the early markets. She had a great season last year both on the flat and over jumps, has now worked her way back down to her last winning mark after two below par efforts on ground that probably wasnt ideal. Should relish testing conditions today and should strip fitter for recent runs, jockeys also takes off a handy 5lb making her look well treated in this race. The other that catches my eye is Swinbanks runner First Rock who I backed last time out at a much bigger price and ran a cracker! Wrote this last time; First Rock is my final interest in this race, comes from the Swinbank yard who have had a few winners recently and although he has burnt plenty of fingers along the way in maidens on the AW he showed plenty of promise in NHF races both on turf and fibresand, not beaten far in 2 fibresand handicaps in the spring although looking a bit awkward in a finish hopefully that is just inexperienced showing which hopefuly has been addressed and 1lb lower today and has gone well fresh in the past and should be suited to this step up in trip on the flat and has to be of interest at a big price! 3lb higher today but still capable off this mark I feel and although softer ground an unknown he has gone well on fibresand which usually converts well on soft ground and clearly relished the step up in trip last time. 1pt win Lady Bluesky 9/1 boyles

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 5.40 Leicester Hidden Glory - big price as he's yet to win on turf but has dropped to a really good mark on this surface, off 69 here, and ran well at Redcar last time. Stays this far and has outside claims. 12/1 b365, 1 pt win

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 4:10 Leicester - Ragsah Bin Suroor's sole runner at the meeting, a track where the trainer has had considerable success in the past. The filly is dropping down from listed company in this cl3 encounter and has also taken part in group races as a 2yo. Richard Mullen has only had one win from 30 in Goldolphin colours but I fancy him to take Ragsah first past the post. 11/1 will hill (bog) WIN

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 15.20 Huntingdon Trovare 1pt win at sp last time out he beat the arab league a handy Pipe runner who won a decent hurdle race the other day. best credentials of this lot imo and being ridden by leighton aspell who rides out for Perrett full time, so he knows this horse and its gotta have a decent chance.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 16:20 Huntingdon ONLY WITNESS looks an exceptional price at 9/2 currently as although he faces a 10lb rise in the weights from a victory over 3 miles at Worcester last month, he did that very impressively and it looks likely that there is more to come and with the race probably going to be run to suit, he has an excellent chance. Took his time to get the hang of hurdling and didn’t look the most straightforward in the preliminaries on occasions but looks to have made real strides over the summer both physically and mentally alongside with the step up to 3 miles. This was shown in abundance when last seen; travelling powerfully and he won the race with three hurdles to go. What was more impressive was that he kept on really well under hand-riding even though he was in-front for a long while, not easy for still a fairly inexperienced horse. Today’s contest is over two furlongs further than his last start but that shouldn’t be too much of an issue as he looked to stay the trip well. Alongside this, a decent gallop is almost guaranteed with pacesetters Tiger Line and Winter Alchemy in attendance, the good pace will only be of assistance to a strong travelling type like Only Witness. He’s still unexposed in comparison to most of his rivals and there’s definitely room for manoeuvre off a mark of 100, as he looked like a horse that could be up to winning off a mark in the region of 110. Leighton Aspell takes the ride and I’m not his biggest fan, but my selection looks a fairly uncomplicated ride; travel well in behind, ease your way to the front 2f out and kick for home. It sounds almost too simple but I think he’s got the potential to be better than these over hurdles before making the transition to fences this winter. He should be a 11/4 favourite in my book so to see 9/2, it’s far too big. ONLY WITNESS; 1pt @ 9/2 Boylesports (bog)

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 3.30: Broctune Papa Gio @ Newcastle - Has won three times this year all at Redcar but has ran well at Newcastle before.Most recent victory came on the same ground as today and has usual jockey Declan Cannon onboard who claims 3lb and has a profit of + 9.75 at Newcastle this year. 0.5pt E/W @ 14/1 VCBet

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 4:00 Newcastle - Youhavecontrol - 1pt @ 10/1 (Bet365) Very tough 6f H'cap in the offing here, with 16 runners set to go to post and the majority seemingly in decent form. Over this trip at Newcastle, you generally want to side with those drawn high (especially on softer going) and Youhavecontrol looks to have a live chance of getting involved from stall 13. A strong pace to run after will be needed, as he's not an obvious one to be contesting races in the sprinting division but he doesn't seem to be lacking in speed and should be seeing out his race well at a track that takes a lot of getting. Michael Dods trains the 3-year-old Youhavecontrol and as was the case last season, his animals seem to be coming to hand at the end of the campaign. 5 of his last 20 runners have scored, including winners at 6/1, 7/1, 15/2 & 11/1. This definitely looks to be the time to watch his runners closely and today he sees fit to book Paul Hanagan for the first time on board this fellow. The trainer/jockey combination doesn't occur too often nowadays but they boast fine results when teaming up and Hanagan is the top jockey at this track in recent times. 2 of his last 5 rides for Dods have ended in victory (both this time last year) and it looks like a relatively interesting booking - even though it may mean nothing. Even more interesting is the fact that Youhavecontrol is now dropped back to sprint trips for the first time since winning his maiden on seasonal debut this year (had one run over C&D as a juvenile; needed it). On that occasion - at Thirsk on decent ground - Dods' charge was doing all of his best work late on despite taking a keen hold from the off. I wouldn't be convinced that 6f at Thirsk would be the ideal test for him and with a much larger emphasis on stamina here (albeit over the same trip), he can prove to be even better than what still rates as his career-best effort to date. The soft ground that Youhavecontrol will encounter today - for the first time in a handicap (got good-to-soft before but didn't see out a mile at this track, which is understandable) - is something that he should relish and assuming they go quick enough for him, he's one of the more likely types to be seen finishing out his race well (or else he'll be badly one-paced under pressure!). It's obvious that things haven't went to plan since that useful maiden win (beat a sprinter now rated 90) but he has had excuses on a number of occasions and ran some decent races in defeat despite racing conditions not being overly suitable. Youhavecontrol is still very lightly-raced having only lined out on 7 occasions and despite some form-readers seeming to think that he's caught by the handicapper off his current rating (74), I think he has the potential to have a nice bit in hand off it when his ideal conditions arise. He may just have everything spot on today and at a price of 10/1, I'll take a chance. He's not a winner-in-waiting or anything like that but he's talented and should be up to winning a similar contest. This is a tough one to solve though, so it's just minimal each-way stakes for me. Hopefully he'll go well and I see no reason why he shouldn't. Tim Easterby's 3 year old, Captain Kolo (11/1), would be the only other I'd consider backing but he just doesn't find winning easy, especially when my money is resting on his shoulders (bound to win now).

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 1610 leicester zoowra 1pt win sp al zarooni has another horse back from a long lay off,148 days since last run, which was a group 1 race in france, this group 3 should be well within its grasp, won on todays condition, good to soft and de sousa takes the mount

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 2.10 Leicester Yet again I am going to chose a horse to beat a likely sort because the likely sort is ridden by Richard Hills( seriously, retire now)Mabaany won very nicely lto but didn't have grandad in the saddle so now that he is I am going to side with Cravat. Won a nursery very nicely last time and still looks to have a bit more improvement even though he has had plenty of racing so far. The big danger may be Newton Lodge altgough it was a fairly ordinary maiden that he won and he encounters different ground today. So Cravat looks like the safest option as he won't lack for effort or guidance from the saddle. 1 Pt win 7/2 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 320 Huntingdon: Bedouin Bay (9/4 Bet365) Nice little novice hurdle this, fav Trovare looked anything but a hurdler when falling on his debut but did win last time and could be an improver but Bedouin Bay has ran in much better company and tackles this trip for the first time on a track where speed will also be key, Trovare looks more of a stayer of the two to me and may want a more galloping track. Jonjo has a debutant and Charlie Longsdon runs a bumper winner so the prices should hold up.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 3:10 Leicester - Kaafel - Back Ran an absolute belter when 2nd in a good looking maiden at Newbury lto. He looked like he'd learn from the experience and looks to have been found a terrific opportunity to gain compensation straight away. Plenty of big stables represented but the ones with experience have achieved little and the newcomers are weak in the betting. Good chance for Kaafel this 1pt win @ 8/13 Hills BOG

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October Huntingdon 3.50 Points Of View win - 17/2 SJ Not really sure about Spock over 3 miles and Ostland might sturggle off top weight after 3 wins this summer. Natural Action was with a chance before falling lto and could go well. Firm Order is also interesting on his chasing debut. They are both worth saving on. The main selection has to be Points Of View, who hated the softened ground lto, but was doing pretty well in novice events earlier this summer and could be well handicapped here.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October Newc 4.30 - Berbice - ew at 25/1 bog Laddies Frustrating type who has only won twice from 60-odd runs but has been placed 17 times The RP comment today sums him up - 'has the ability but finds little for pressure' He usually travels well and todays trip, ground, draw etc are all fine I'm hoping he's the kind of horse that will benefit from the new whip rules in that he'll probably run his usual race and hopefully the ones who would have finished in front of him if this race had been run last week will run below their recent form because they won't be whipped as much In other words the new rules won't affect him as he never found much for 'pressure' anyway but it might inconvenience the others.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October St Oswald - Newcastle 3.30 1pt Win 7/1 PP Taking a chance on the David O'Meara trained St Oswald in this 7f Handicap. He gets into this race off bottom weight and I thought he ran a very nice race over a mile last time out. He had every chance a furlong out but faded late into third behind two decent types in Abidhabidubai and Switchback. He was second to Ted's Brother over course and distance on his only try over this trip so hoping for a good run today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 3.10 Leicester - 1pt win Fourth Of June @ 17/2 (Boyles) This looks a smashing each-way price for a horse who looks sure to improve on his debut run, and is too big to miss out - even as the 2nd favourite in this maiden. The favourite deserves to be at the head of the market, but I wouldn't be taking 4/6 about him given his maiden form hasn't worked out quite as strong as supporters would have liked. He may well win, but I'll let that happen at such a price. The Ed Dunlop trained Fourth Of June has one run under his belt, and he definitely needed it. Despite travelling quite sweetly for a long way under Frankie Dettori, he didn't get any cover throughout, and was green when asked to pick up. He wasn't given a hard time, and kept on in midfield. He was well backed that day when sent off at 4/1 so connections clearly see talent in him, and it was evident on the track - even if he couldn't give them instant payback. The race itself is working out well, with the winner hacking up by 5l in a handicap since, the 3rd and 9th horses also winning, with the 8th and 10th placed horses finishing in a place on their subsequent runs. Fourth Of June is sure to come on for it, and is a genuine threat to the favourite in my eyes. He looks booked for a place at least so long as natural improvement does occur, and may well upset the favourite.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 4:00 Newcastle: Signore Momento 1pt win 20/1 Ladbrokes Very poor showings recently, however, Signore Momento does handle the going and is capable of going close off this sort of mark. His win off 72 at Ffos Las was decent form, but he has gone hill since. Signore Momento has dropped to only a pound higher than that last win today and could come back to life.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 4.30 Newcastle - Supreme Spirit - 12/1 Bluesquare Watching the 4.00 has increased my confidence in this selection, far side looks the place to be so stall 1 looks perfect for this one. Looked improved lto for the blinkers and soft ground and although the blinkers may not have the same effect she gets similar conditions again today. George Margason obviously sending her this far for the ground and she's only 3lbs higher than lto when she just got up on the line at Ffos Las. Has been quite negative in the market today but i think 12/1 is a massive price for such a lightly raced filly under the circumstances.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October

4.30 Newcastle - Supreme Spirit - 12/1 Bluesquare Watching the 4.00 has increased my confidence in this selection, far side looks the place to be so stall 1 looks perfect for this one. Looked improved lto for the blinkers and soft ground and although the blinkers may not have the same effect she gets similar conditions again today. George Margason obviously sending her this far for the ground and she's only 3lbs higher than lto when she just got up on the line at Ffos Las. Has been quite negative in the market today but i think 12/1 is a massive price for such a lightly raced filly under the circumstances.

Prices changed as i was typing, 11/1 with PP.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 17:40 Leicester Spring Secret - Has won at distance off 65. And been running in the 70's this year with not much effect. Ran off 68 LTO weakening last couple of furlongs. And now down to 66. Jockey Luke Morris has won onboard before and got joint top RPR. Looks overpriced to me at 66/1 when other bookies offering 20. 0.5EW 66/1 bet365.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 11th of October 5.40 Leicester Lyric Poet win @ 14/1 Bet365 Think this horse will enjoy this slightly easier surface today than what he encountered over CD last time out. His only win came on soft ground over this distance at Lingfied. He looks to be well enough handicapped here if transferring his all weather form to the turf. He has also had a couple of runs now since returning from a break so should be spot on for this.