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Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October


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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October I would consider an over 2.5 goals in Macedonia - Slovakia match, because 2.35 seems to me like a nice price. Both teams play for nothing and there will be a lot of changes against usual lineups. We (Slovakia) travelled to Skopje without defenders Skrtel and Durica, midfielders Stoch and Karhan, and with one new face - Sparta Prague´s mifielder Grajciar. Our coach has announced, that we are going to play 4-3-3, and also going to try new central defenders - Salata and Michalik (instead of experienced Skrtel-Durica). I certailny think that we could end our 3 match run without scoring a goal. Another important fact is, that Macedonia will miss some important first-team players, including the biggest star Goran Pandev. I can see us to be the better one, with more possession, creating more chances with three strikers and offensive approach .. but our defence, especially two central defenders, are not experienced enough, so our it wouldn´t be suprise for me, if our defence doesn´t work properly in tomorrow match. 1-2 for Slovakia, seems to me like a nice result :p

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

As someone that pretty much lives and breathes odds' date=' you wouldn't even ever get 1/3 on Bulgaria in Bulgaria, let alone the rest of the world. No scenario would have Bulgaria at 1/3 unless Wales were sticking out a youth side. And even then most bookies would drop the game.[/quote'] I had a look back and your right, they wouldnt have been that price! But they would have been much shorter than they are now, which is the point im trying to make!
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October France- Bosnia=both teams to score (2.05) Eurobet France position 1° points 20 Bosnia position 2° points 19 Preview: France: Injured: Karim Benzema, Franck Ribery, Yoann Gourcuff, Abou Diaby, Bacary Sagna, Philippe Mexes, Blaise Matuidi; in doubt: Kevin Gameiro, Patrice Evra, Adil Rami, Yohan Cabaye, Eric Abidal. Bosnia: injured: Salihovic; part: IbiÅ¡ević France has a score of w6-d2-l1 goals scored 14 goals against 3 while Bosnia has a score of w6-d1-l2 goals scored 16 goals against 7. Eventful game with two teams who want to pull the ticket for the European Championship finals. France just a draw to retain first place in the group while Bosnia has to win. France has many problems of education for the many absences. Bosnia is a team strong enough to be in the department with offensiovo Edin Džeko and Vedad IbiÅ¡ević and a midfield with quality and Miralem Pjanić Zvjezdan Misimović. Given the motivations of Bosnia more than the many absences in the home team to think a game with a lot of actions to goals. :hope:hope:hope

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Just not gotten over their idiotic policy of requiring proof of ID when you want to make your first withdrawal. I just think shoddy bookies can be spotted a mile off, and you're always liable to have problems.
Yeah it is annoying, and you don't find out really until you've already got an account with them. Just designed to make you keep betting your money til it's gone rather than banking it I reckon.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Russia v Andorra Both Teams To Score NO 1.26 bwin Russia are strong at home and Andorra don't score many goals away. They have scored away (against Ireland and Moldova for example), but I think Russia will be harder. I'd estimate their chances of a goal here at around 10%, so odds of 1.26 seem generous. http://www.soccerway.com/teams/russia/russia/ http://www.soccerway.com/teams/andorra/andorra/

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Wales down from 4.33 to as low as 3.40 now.
Should be as low as 2,60 by tomorrow, and it is not because bookies are reading this forum. There are constant things in football, such as: -- skill and physical condition; -- motivation and team spirit; -- management; -- fans' support. At none of these Bulgaria is above Wales at the moment.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Not quite as easy as that against a team that sets out to defend. Moldova only won 2-0 in San Marino
I am much more worried about Germany scoring another 2 ( to break even ) or 3 ( to win ) at the U21 tonight, plus Germany to the race to 9 corners. I had my money with bet365 already on tomorrow's game...:hope P.S. Corners done ;)
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Agreed - looks crazy Azerbaijan +2.5 AH @ 1.88 with Ladbrokes looks possible value
I'd have to disagree. Azerbaijan are really poor away from home, and Turkey, on their day, are a good side. I have no doubt Turkey will win tomorrow, and 1.14, which is the highest I saw them, will probably turn out to be pretty decent.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Croatia AH - 0.5 Another side in the delightful ''must win'' situation. Not the force of old, but they've still managee victories against the Georgians and Israelies on their home turf, and can get a final one against a very limited Lativa. Greece AH + 0.5 Greeks need a point in Georgia, and their solid performance to this point in the campaign makes me confident they'll be fine. Georgia looked like being the surprise of the group, but had a bad time of it in the last round of matches, 0-1 at home to Lativa and drawing in Malta. They pose little threat.
These two games are in Group F - http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/standings/round=15171/group=700962/index.html The matches and odds you quoted are: Georgia v Greece Greece AH + 0.5 1.16 (The bet is on Greece to win or draw) Here, Greece need a point to qualify and Georgia are out of the running - http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/matches/season=2012/round=15171/match=2002268/prematch/preview/index.html Looking at it, I think Greece will get at least a point, but the odds of 1.16 are much too short - Georgia have more than a 14% chance of winning (this is the percentage implied by odds of 1.16), so I think this bet is poor value. There is also a risk that Greece will play for a draw, which is always dangerous. Croatia v Latvia Croatia AH -0.5 1.15 (The bet is on Croatia to win) Here, I think Croatia will win, but once again the odds are terrible. I think Lativia have more than a 13% of a draw or a win (the percentage chance equal to odds of 1.15) - they exceeded expectations by winning in Georgia recently, and drew at home to Greece - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/latvia/latvia/ I would definitely avoid these two bets
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

My few tips... Switzerland v Montenegro Switzerland is already out so the morale of the team is pretty low. They lost their chance and probalby there is no will for winning this game. However Montenegro has played really solid game against England. Brnovic was preparing his team for the game against Switzerland even before England game. I'm sure Montenegro can with this game by minimum goals. Germany - Belgium (Belgium not to score) Germans won their group so there is no pressure on them. Belgium will try to score some goals but I just can't see Belgium strikers scroing goals in this game expecially if Neuer is on the goal. France -1 - Bosnia (or over 2.5) Bosnia is one of those teams which can score a lot of goals against weaker teams but they struggle against big teams and that is the main reason why we haven't yet seen Bosnia in major tournaments. Sasa Papac has returned to play for Bosnia again and he made the defence a little bit stronger but still they need better defenders. It's a shame that bosnians like Marko Marin, Neven Subotic, Vedran Corluka, Dejan Lovren chose to play for other countries but that's a different story.
You didn't quote any odds escalibur - without these it's impossible to work out how good the bets are
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Georgia vs Greece under 2.5 @ 1.62 (Stan James) Sportsxtipster has said it all really. Georgia have been incredibly low scoring at home and Greece have been incredibly low scoring away. This is probably one of international football's most boring match-ups. Throw in the fact that Greece only need a draw to qualify, and you have an unders banker, if there ever was such a thing. I really can't see either side wanting to take risks in this game. Greece are hard to beat (undefeated in qualification) and I think they will be confident not to concede, I don't think they will feel the need to win the game. Under 2 around evens is tempting as well and I might put something on that as well.
There is every reason to expect a defensive game here - two defensive teams and Greece only needing a draw. Most of Georgia's home games are below 2.5 (average of 1.1 goals per game in the last 10 home), and most of Greece's away games are under 2.5 too (average of 1.3 goals per game in the last 10 away). I would put the chance of under 2.5 goals tomorrow at around 75%, or odds of 1.33, so 1.62 is very good value :ok
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

These two games are in Group F - http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/standings/round=15171/group=700962/index.html The matches and odds you quoted are: Georgia v Greece Greece AH + 0.5 1.16 (The bet is on Greece to win or draw) Here, Greece need a point to qualify and Georgia are out of the running - http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/matches/season=2012/round=15171/match=2002268/prematch/preview/index.html Looking at it, I think Greece will get at least a point, but the odds of 1.16 are much too short - Georgia have more than a 14% chance of winning (this is the percentage implied by odds of 1.16), so I think this bet is poor value. There is also a risk that Greece will play for a draw, which is always dangerous. Croatia v Latvia Croatia AH -0.5 1.15 (The bet is on Croatia to win) Here, I think Croatia will win, but once again the odds are terrible. I think Lativia have more than a 13% of a draw or a win (the percentage chance equal to odds of 1.15) - they exceeded expectations by winning in Georgia recently, and drew at home to Greece - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/latvia/latvia/ I would definitely avoid these two bets
Interesting perspective. To be honest, MP, I never really pay all that much attention to odds, unless they're completely out of line. I focus on what I think'll happen, and usually take whatever odds are on offer. Also, it is only in an acca, so obviously a small stake (£10). As well, with it being in an acca, the odds will obviously be a lot higher.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Event Bulgaria - Wales
Selection Wales
Strength 10/10
Date 11/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 4.11
Reasoning Bulgaria is on crisis and the qualifying tournament for Euro 2012 could only end in disappointment after one year without coach, after resign with Lothar Matthaus and being under the command of the caretaker manager Michail Madanski. And for today's game no good news to the hosts side: the defenders Plamen Krachunov, Ivan Bandalovski and Nikolay Bodurov are out due to injury and Zhivko Milanov is suspended. Bulgaria last home win was in October 2009, two years ago! Wales has no injured or suspended player and they can repeat the same starting eleven that shinned last Friday defeating Switzerland by 2-0. Wales has here a tough game but they have the ambition of finishing the group out of the last place, and they still have the chance of end the group in the third place, not depending only themselves to do it. Curious that Wales never draw a single game of the last 34 games they played, and they are with a really good offensive power in the last games...
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Has anyone considered the bookings markets in the "crunch" matches. For example in Ireland V Armenia, there are some interesting prices. Time of First Booking +/- 29 mins Total Ireland Bookings in 2nd half - over 1.5 is 2.8 Total Armenia Bookings in 2nd half - over 1.5 is 1.78 Think there might be some value in the 2.8 on over 1.5 for Ireland. As Aidymac stated earlier, it is difficult to envisage Armenia not having long periods of pressure in this game as Trap sets up Ireland not to concede. Bar a scenario where Ireland are coasting by half time and the game peeters out, then Ireland will either be defending a result, or frantically chasing to get back into the game. When I think of this game I think of the home game against Macedonia where Ireland were defending a 2-1 half time lead, and Macedonia were bossing possesion in the 2nd half as Ireland simply could not keep the ball. Ireland picked up 3 yellows in that 45 mins. Obviously you can't base bets on a sample size of 1, but it is the game who's pattern I think matches most what can be expected in this game. Of course in general in these crunch games, there is every chance that teams leading will be time wasting and defending as if their lives depended on it as the match progresses. And on the flip side the losing team may become increasing frustrated as the covetted prize of automatic qualification or a play-off spot drifts away. The other games I would consider are France V Bosnia and Slovenia V Serbia. In the Germany v Belgium game, there is a fair chance that Germany will be coasting and Belgium may well accept their faith. It may also be worth considering the "to be booked" markets, perhaps for the goalkeepers from a time wasting point of view. And of course the "sending off" market, in-play, depending on how the matches are progressing. Anyway no real tip at this stage, just interesting to hear any views on this angle. :ok

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Sport Football (Internationals)
Event Georgia - Greece
Selection under 1.5 goals
Strength 8/10
Date 11/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 3.00
Reasoning Georgia are 5th placed in the group with 10 points. They are the team with the 2nd best defense after Greece with only 7 goals conceded but in the same time having the 2nd worst offense with only 6 goals scored, as only last placed Malta got less goals -4. Georgia is on quite bad run of 4 winless games, having 3 defeats, as some of them are really bad, especially from latvia at home 0:1 and Malta draw 1:1. Georgia got 8 unders in their 9 games so far. Greece is current leaders and will need only 1 point to secure the first place in the group. Russia got the best defense, conceding only 4 goals so far. They are ultra defensive team and got 8 overs in their 9 matches so far. I expect Greece to play very careful and smart tomorrow, without taking any risks. Georgia and Greece made 2 unders in their last 2 meetings and I expect similar outcome tomorrow
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October None of Wales' last 34 internationals have ended in a draw, but i got feeling this will end in one. Bulgaria will try an restore some pride infront of there home fans, where as Wales will want to keep the feel good factor an end the campaign on a high. Bulgaria have been struggling for goals an Wales tend to score 0-1 goals in away games, i dont think will see an expansive start to game, likely to be a more cautious approach from sides a therefore i foresee a low scoring game. 5pts Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 Ladbrokes 2pts Under 1.5 goals @ 2/1 Ladbrokes 2pts Wales +1 @ 5/6 Betfred 2pts Bulgaria v Wales - Draw @ 5/2

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

There is every reason to expect a defensive game here - two defensive teams and Greece only needing a draw. Most of Georgia's home games are below 2.5 (average of 1.1 goals per game in the last 10 home)' date=' and most of Greece's away games are under 2.5 too (average of 1.3 goals per game in the last 10 away). I would put the chance of under 2.5 goals tomorrow at around 75%, or odds of 1.33, so 1.62 is very good value :ok[/quote'] Pg Yid gotta agree you, i just taken that bet @ 4/7. Also taking Under 2.5 in Malta v Israel @ 4/5 this seems a total dead rubber, the home team have been abysmal through out the whole campaign, an the away side will lack morale an motivation, knowing that cannot grab second spot regardless how emphatic they win
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Russia v Andorra Both Teams To Score NO 1.26 bwin Russia are strong at home and Andorra don't score many goals away. They have scored away (against Ireland and Moldova for example), but I think Russia will be harder. I'd estimate their chances of a goal here at around 10%, so odds of 1.26 seem generous. http://www.soccerway.com/teams/russia/russia/ http://www.soccerway.com/teams/andorra/andorra/
bet365 offering 63/20 on under 2:5 goals here, seems very generous. Am I missing something? I know Andorra are weak, but Russia are very average these days. Anyone got team news / insights?
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October over 3.5 , 2.20 stanjames , 10units Maybe a little optimistic bet , but when it's San Marino on the field everything can happen. The only thing that I'm not confident about in this bet is that Moldova can get into wasting time after going 2:0 or 3:0 up. Moldova won 2:0 in San Marino , so they should be able to score at least 4 goals today. San Marino is considered as a training match by most sides when they visit San Marino , but they concede plenty of goals when they are visiting. In this Euro qualifications they conceded 33 goals on road 6:0 , 8:0 , 8:0 , 11:0. Moldova at home won against Finland 2:0 and lost 1:0 to Holland , 4:1 to Sweden and 2:0 to Hungary.

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Has anyone considered the bookings markets in the "crunch" matches. For example in Ireland V Armenia, there are some interesting prices. Time of First Booking +/- 29 mins Total Ireland Bookings in 2nd half - over 1.5 is 2.8 Total Armenia Bookings in 2nd half - over 1.5 is 1.78 Think there might be some value in the 2.8 on over 1.5 for Ireland. As Aidymac stated earlier, it is difficult to envisage Armenia not having long periods of pressure in this game as Trap sets up Ireland not to concede. Bar a scenario where Ireland are coasting by half time and the game peeters out, then Ireland will either be defending a result, or frantically chasing to get back into the game. When I think of this game I think of the home game against Macedonia where Ireland were defending a 2-1 half time lead, and Macedonia were bossing possesion in the 2nd half as Ireland simply could not keep the ball. Ireland picked up 3 yellows in that 45 mins. Obviously you can't base bets on a sample size of 1, but it is the game who's pattern I think matches most what can be expected in this game. Of course in general in these crunch games, there is every chance that teams leading will be time wasting and defending as if their lives depended on it as the match progresses. And on the flip side the losing team may become increasing frustrated as the covetted prize of automatic qualification or a play-off spot drifts away. The other games I would consider are France V Bosnia and Slovenia V Serbia. In the Germany v Belgium game, there is a fair chance that Germany will be coasting and Belgium may well accept their faith. It may also be worth considering the "to be booked" markets, perhaps for the goalkeepers from a time wasting point of view. And of course the "sending off" market, in-play, depending on how the matches are progressing. Anyway no real tip at this stage, just interesting to hear any views on this angle. :ok
Rep. of Ireland - Armenia The referee for this game is Eduardo Iturralde Gonzalez from Spain. I have checked the recent games he was in charge of and here are his stats: APOEL 2-1 Zenit (7 yellow, 1 red); Socheaux 0-4 Metalist (7 yellow, 1 red); PSV 3-1 Lille (4 yellow, 1 red) and Utrecht 3-3 Napoli (9 yellow) Taking into account how much is at stake for both sides I also think that the cards market is the best option here. Over 65 Booking Points @ 3.80 (2 units) William Hill Red Card @ 4.75 (1 unit) William Hill
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Albania V Romania Albania to win @ 3.62 Very good value here, Romania look weak and will probably experiment a lot facing Albania. Also went for Albania V Romania-both teams to score Bulgaria V wales over 2.5 Rep of ireland v Aremnia- rep of ireland to win Italy v northen ireland- over 2.5 france bosnia- over 1.5 spain v scotland over 2.5 Rep of ireland V armenia- over 2.5 :hope

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October

Rep. of Ireland - Armenia The referee for this game is Eduardo Iturralde Gonzalez from Spain. I have checked the recent games he was in charge of and here are his stats: APOEL 2-1 Zenit (7 yellow, 1 red); Socheaux 0-4 Metalist (7 yellow, 1 red); PSV 3-1 Lille (4 yellow, 1 red) and Utrecht 3-3 Napoli (9 yellow) Taking into account how much is at stake for both sides I also think that the cards market is the best option here. Over 65 Booking Points @ 3.80 (2 units) William Hill Red Card @ 4.75 (1 unit) William Hill
Now, now, Mustafa, that is a top-pick! :ok Never went as far as you did, I am happy enough with the Asian Line at bet365 - Over 4,5 Cards @ 1,825. Took it with medium to high stake. Spanish ref, tough teams, a decider-game...Very probable! Great point! GL
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October So far the bets taken are : France - Bosnia Over 2,5 Goals @ 2,05 France - Bosnia Goal/Goal @ 2,10 Germany - 1,5 AH @ 2,075 Germany - Belgium Over 3 Goals @ 1,95 Malta - Israel Goal/Goal @ 2,10 Ireland - Armenia Over 4,5 Cards @ 1,825 Moldova - San Marino Over 3,5 Goals @ 2,00 Double with + 0,25 AH with Albania and Macedonia Double with Over 2,5 Goals in Germany and Hungary @ 2,86 Accumulators with - Australia, Moldova, Russia, Italy, Japan @ 1,49 and - Germany, Australia, Moldova, Japan and Universidad de Chile @ 2,15 Just to sum up, as I am going to concentrate on other games now - some great posts here about Denmark, Georgia, Italy ... :ok

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Kazakhstan vs Austria it is a tough game to predict and I think Austria will not win this time. They were lucky with Azerbaijan as the hosts got a red card. I won my bet about both teams to score in the game Belgium - Kazakhstan and I intend to win also this one. Home side scored in all games except against Germany, Belgium and Turkey. Austria is not having a great defensive and I believe they will conceded today. Hope they will also score. In fact this is my doubt regarding this game, if Austria will score. both teams to score? yes @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Germany vs Belgium The idea is simple and I think we will happen. Belgium needs to win to get the qualification to the next phase. Turkey will win against Azerbaijan, I am pretty sure about that. So if they want to shine this year, Belgium should go scoring at least once against Germany. will be hard for them, but it is a fundamental thing for their qualification. Full stake on this one. both teams to score? Yes @ 1.83 with Stan James

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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 11 October Croatia vs Latvia Another game in which I go for same type of bet. Croatia lost against Greece 0-2 and seems they lost first place in this group. what seemed to be easy to be taken was lost forever. Greece will not lose in Georgia and Croatia will play this game only for the records. Latvia scored against Cehia away, Austria away and Israel also. Croatia conceded at home with all the teams, except Malta and Greece. I think we will see a good game here with goals in every team's net. both to score? yes @ 2.62 with Ladbrokers

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