BBOTD 8th of September

[Aidymac]

Off Chance - Doncaster 1:55 Very consistent horse that seldom runs a bad race. Has a fantastic strike-rate of 5 wins, 3 seconds and 7 thirds from 22 races, which is a place rate of 15/22... Ran well enough in its last outing when 5th to Theyskens Theory at Sandown, this is up another level though. Has only ever run at Doncaster once and was 2nd, it travels well in its races, Tim Easterby is in very good form and i am expecting a big run even though agaisnt some classy rivals like Alanza, Seta and Dever Dream etc etc! I had it priced up as a 12/1 shot so the 20/1 to me is worth a bet. WIN @ 20/1 Paddy BOG

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 15.00 Doncaster Set To Music - 1pt win @ 2/1 Paddy Power Set To Music is a impressive filly who completed a four timer winning well last time out beating a few of the rivals here that day longer the trip wont be a problem in the form of his life and should go well today

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 2:25 Doncaster - Bogart - Back I think he's overpriced at 3/1 as I think he could well be 2/1 or shorter by race time tomorrow. Won on debut and then came 7th in a really cracking race. He left that behind him though when absolutely routing a really decent field lto and that makes him the one to beat here. Plenty of good quality in this race but I think this lad could be a bit special 1pt win @ 3/1 Hills BOG

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September my nap and alternative finished 2nd and third yesterday and eachway made a profit but i chose 2 go win only ...so im going to revert to the place money to get on the board for september. TOP COP was a rare debut winner for its yard and has progreesed for its lack of runs quite nicely. has a bit to find in an open contest but could be open to improvement necessary at 12/1 eachway with bet 365 1/4 1234

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 1:25 Doncaster Poetic Dancer win - 12/1 (William Hill) Poetic Dancer is a completely unexposed filly with one win to her name from four starts. That win was over today's trip on good ground at Newbury. Although receiving weight from the second and third, it was her second start on the racecourse and she showed a professional and game attitude to battle all the way to the line. Was then given a rest and reappeared in a small field, stepped up to seven furlongs at Ascot. Wasn't beaten far by two Hannon inmates, saw too much daylight on the outside and probably didn't see out the trip in those circumstances. Appeared to get the trip far better over 7f next time out when held up, making good progess once finding a gap. It was a strongly run race though and probably stretched her stamina, so the drop back looks sensible and in this big field with lots of pace, the ability to stay further could be key. She's also been given a decent break since her last run so may well have improved. A mark of 76 allowing for the 3lb taken off doesn't look harsh.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 4:10 Doncaster - Mon Brav - win @ 18/1 (WillHill) Once again I'm going to take a chance on Brian Ellison's Mon Brav, especially now that he's back down to a level that he can compete in. This is the first time that this progressive 4 year old drops back to a Class 3 contest over his favoured 6f since finishing 2nd to the progressive Andrew Balding trained Dungannon (off 90 then, winner off 95 since beating very progressive animal) over this C&D in June. Previous to that he had won his opening pair of outings for his new yard, winning off 75 at Musselburgh over an inadequate 5f before following up off 81 in a competitive 16 runner contest at Thirsk, a track that I don't think is completely ideal. Since that very good run over C&D, things haven't went to plan for Mon Brav but I think he has been campaigned in some races that he just found impossible to get involved in. First up, he ran over 5f at the stiff Newcastle track and although he wasn't beaten far (3½l), it would be considered a poor run given how well-backed he was (sent off 4/1 favourite in C2 event). He was then drawn out in the car park over 6f at Ascot, although once again he was punted from fancy prices into 10/1 for a much tougher race than this. That run can be discounted. Next - and last - time out, Mon Brav couldn't get involved in a very hot handicap over 5f at York, mainly down to the track favouring those racing on the pace that day (he was towards the rear throughout, kept on final furlong). That trip is too short anyways, but the trip at that track was never going to suit and it was game over before he even stepped into the stalls - even though I backed him oddly enough. Now that Mon Brav returns to his proper trip, grade and a track that suits, I feel he can get back into the frame and put his recent efforts behind him. Given how he was backed on a few occasions since last scoring, connections must think that he's up to defying these sort of marks in competitive races and hopefully they're going here with the intent of landing the spoils, as Brian Ellison is good at keeping them for a gamble. Another positive is the booking of the supremely talented Silvestre De Sousa. He's got a 28% strike-rate for this yard with 7 winners from just 25 rides and it could well be a signal of intent (at least I hope so). He's also 3 from 10 when on board animals owned by Koo's Racing Club and hopefully he could add to that here. I think De Sousa is the ideal partner for this horse - as both are very determined and hard to beat in a finish when things go well. The race will be run to suit and the horse also has a nice sit in still 19 - as it seems that you want a high draw over sprint trips at Doncaster. Ground will cause no concern either and there seems to be no obvious reason why he can't make the frame, thus making 18/1 look too big. The pace should be strong along the stands' rail and Mon Brav will get a nice toe into the race assuming he's good enough. Small each-way stakes for me and hopefully he'll run well. Previous selection Shropshire (25/1) may be worth a few quid each-way too. It's a very, very tough race to get to grips with though, so I won't be surprised by whoever wins this.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Here's my first ever BBOTD pick so let's see how it goes ! 6:40 Wolverhampton Strictly Pink - 2pts win - 10/1 (Hills) Going to take a chance on Paul Hanagan's ride in this race today. Looking at the horse's form this year and it's very mix and match with a few places but also a few last place finishes as well. This horse has won on the all weather track at Wolverhampton before at class 5 level (class 4 today), but also has won a 6f class 3 race at Pontefract this year as well which I hope means this horse has some ability about it when the conditions suit. Watched it's last race at Yarmouth where it went off at 33/1 and finished 4th and it was the race's front runner. It is this tactic the jockey's that have ridden this horse it's last few races have used to no real effect, whereas in it's two wins it has been kept back then made a final burst in the last furlong to win. Hanagan has ridden Strictly Pink twice in the past late last year to 2 second place finishes (1 of those at Wolverhampton and both times the horse went off as favourite and lost by no more than a length and a quarter) and I'm hoping that Alan Bailey has booked him to do the job today at a nice price. It is also the only horse Bailey has sent out today to Wolverhampton, and his record there this season is very impressive with 10 wins from 33 races so here's hoping he's sent this there to do this business !

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Welcome along to the forum and competition Nick, very nice write-up. :ok Just for future reference; The BBOTD competition stakes are either 1pt win or 0.50pts each-way. Your bet will be automatically logged as a 1pt win bet so no need to change it this time. It's just handy to know! Best of luck with your first one - hopefully it's a winner. :hope

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 1.55 Doncaster Chachamaidee win @ 7/2 William Hill Has been in top form this season and not been out of the frame on her 4 starts. This has included wining a minor event at York and then taking the group 3 Oak Tree stakes at Goodwood last time out. The second in that event Dever Dream is among the opposition today and has a 3 pound pull this time but I still can't see the form being reversed with the selection. Jacqueline Quest is the main danger for me as she showed signs of returning to form in he last run and Richard Hughes is an interesting booking.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Cheers Monterosso mate :ok Nice to see some early money on your BBOTD choice, 16's with Hills now down from 25/1, hopefully de Sousa does the business for you ! :hope

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 4.50 Chepstow Advertise seems to be hard to win with but now that a proper jockey takes over for the first time in ages he should go very close here. Ran well the only couple of runs here and is down to a very low mark 10lbs below his last winning one. Stable gone very close with some big priced runners recently and is a decent price in this. 1 Pt win 7/1 Bet365

[harrisman]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September a left field selection Laytown 18.20 Loveisthedrug Jockey -Nina Carberry Trainer Gerard Keane interesting jockey booking for local trainer at unusual course! RP tissue price 25/1 current oddschecker Bet365 12/1 betfair 26 although higher was matched. Official rating is poor although the horse does have a distance win to its name. It usually races over further and indeed ran at dundalk A/W 4 days ago at a distance of 12 furlongs. It does have some form on yielding/soft and soft ground and considering the low grade nature of this race and the unusual surface you do wonder if the recent all weather run was designed with this race in mind for a stamina test over a shorter distance,especially bearing in mind the jockey booking.The recent dundalk race was run at a fair clip with this horse finishing 4th.Nina has a particularly good strike rate here and although I fancy her chances in her later race more, in a very poor 8 runner race this entry by a local small trainer could be very good value in the place market/e/w in particular. 0.5pts E/W and 1pt place

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 3.20 Epsom: Climaxfortackle 1pt win @ 8/1 PP BOG This horse finished strongly to win over this trip at Wolves LTO and that was a big step in the right direction. Has softest ground it has faced today but if able to handle it could continue improvement here and may still be quite nicely handicapped having only been raised 3lbs for that LTO victory. Decent chance and decent odds.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 14:25 Doncaster Bogart 1 pt win (3,75) Bet365 Bogart got an excelent chance to get back on winning track. The horse is the fastest, whit a top speed at 124 in this 6 furlongs 110 yards race. Phillip Makin got some of his best races at this distance, while Bogart preforms well at good - good to soft.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 410 Doncaster: Marine Commando EW (12/1 Boyles) This one won at Ascot last season and was rated 104, struggled at the beginning of this season and ran poorly on more than one occasion. First sign of a return was at Chester and then last time again showed he was aboit to hit form when a staying on 6th at York over 5f. Back up to 6f here and now rated just 87 and wouldnt be surprised to see him get in the frame here although the race is a bit of a lottery. Hanagan's full of confidence at the moment and 12/1 is a fair price.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 2:05 Lady Heartbeat @ Chepstow - Hasn't shown much in its first three starts in its career.Comes from a small stable and has Frankie McDonald onboard and has only ran on good to soft or firm ground so the softer ground may help 0.5 pt E/W @ 33/1 Boylesports

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 2.25 Doncaster Boris Grigoriev 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 VC Bet This horse has been pretty disappointing for connections and has been tried in different headgear but today I think he gets the right conditions for the horse and could run a decent race. The visor is back on today which he wore in the Molecombe where he was sent off as short as 15/2. He was badly outpaced that day but stayed on well in the final furlong. This extended 6f at Doncaster should suit him down to a tee. His last 2 runs he has been tried in blinkers where he finished a fast finishing 2nd over 5f at listed level and then disappointed behind the very smart Lightning Pearl. I am hoping the combination of 6f, the visor and the good ground will see a much better showing from this horse today. He does have plenty of fancy entries so hopefully today he will show himself in a much better light.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Jockey George Baker is in fine form at the moment and looks to be hand picking most of his rides. He has two rides today one being in the 2nd last race at Doncaster and one being in the last race tonight at Wolverhampton. I'll take a wee try with George in the Docanster race as i have some cash down too. George was doing the steering back on the 24th June and that was the 6yr olds last win, he was 2nd last time out but Martin Dwyer has took his last two starts and am sure George gets on much better with him. I do have a doubt in am not sure he likes big fields and with todays 21 runners going to post his track record in big fields is a little off putting. However the 6yr old has had a nice break and at some tasty prices flying around i'll have a wee play today. Doncaster 4:10 - We Have a Dream. 0.5 e/w bet 33/1 Victor Chandler. Don't forget Mr Baker's ride in the last at Wolverhamton troops.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 14:25 Doncaster Tough race with such a big field as you'd expect. Betty Fontaine sneaks in at the bottom of the weights as she was such a cheap purchase and has some creditable form in the book and shouldn't be overlooked at all. She's more exposed than most but has run some nice races. Her last effort should be excused (5f too sharp for her nowadays) and her penultimate effort at Ascot in a Group 3 should be foccused on. She ran into 4th but looked like she was going to finish tailed off. Although it may turn out she needs further currently, she's 33/1 and that's far too big as she should be around 18/1 or so. She carries virtually no weight, is quite well in on official figures (although that counts for little I'd admit) and is seemingly well-drawn on yesterday's evidence. I'm sure she'll show up a lot better than her odds suggest, whether she's good enough to win is another question entirely. BETTY FONTAINE; EW @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Princess Palmer - 2.15 Epsom (0.5ew 33-1 BOYLES BOG) Not sure whether Hugo Palmer became interested in this one because of the name(!), but she is having her first run for him today, having previously been trained by Lydia Pearce. Her sole run to date was an unremarkable fifth place over the minimum distance at Sandown way back in May, where the runner-up was Nayarra (now rated 95). However, the overall form of that race is poor, and the prospects for today hinge exclusively on whether or not Hugo Palmer has managed to extract a big improvement since then. A real shot in the dark, but Epsom is far from an easy track for 2YOs to handle, which may hinder some of the fancied runners

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 3.55 Epsom - Solicitor (1pt WIN 20/1 Boylesports) This has just about everything that I look for in a wrongly priced horse. He is in first time blinkers (a bonus for outsiders), has very good Topspeed and ATR speed figures, is sliding down the official rating, and he has poor recent form which means he is underbet. With the way that weights are compressed in this race form also means less. I would want a bit of that 20/1.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Cairncross 3.20 Epsom. 0.5 points each way. Lightly raced and open to improvement, and I think a mark of 73 for her first go in a handicap gives her every chance. Should handle the cut in the ground if breeding's anything to go by (Cape Cross (IRE) (8.8f) — Sassenach (IRE) (Night Shift (USA) (8.0f)), so with the trip not a concern would be a fair bet for me. 5/1 Bet365 (bog)

[TGS]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Doncaster 2.25 Betty Fontaine Each Way 33/1 (Bet365) This seems a ridiculoius prive for a fillie who has won 3 races. Best runs have come in group races over 6f, and i believe the drop back to 5f was against her last time in a listed race. This is slightly easier and has shown to be consistent so far. Is minimum weight after being a cheap purcase, that can only serve as a positive and can hopefully get in the money.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September SOLICITOR 3.55 Epsom. 0.5 points each way. Needs to show a bit more to win this, but the blinkers go on now, which can bring about some improvement, and Tom Scudamore rides in a race for jump jockeys only, which is also a bit of a plus. The trip and ground shouldn't be a problem and the odds are certainly to warrant taking the chance of improvement coming. 20/1 Boylesports BOG

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 4.10 Doncaster - 1pt win Novellen Lad @ 33/1 (VC) - BOG I posted this before his recent Windsor run:

6.40 Windsor - 1.5pts e/w Novellen Lad @ 7/1 (Hills) Posted this prior to his Goodwood run: There are still a couple of concerns tonight. Musson's horses still aren't really firing, and the ground might not quite be quick enough, however, I think he still has a big chance eased slightly in grade. He had no chance at Goodwood in the end, being last of a small group on the near side. The far side dominated, other than a couple who did better on the stands side, but they were more prominent throughout, and you can safely rule out Novellen Lad's effort. This will suit better, I just hope the ground isn't too bad (officially good). He's going to pop up again this year I'm sure of it and I think it could be today.

He ran well to be 3rd that day, and did that despite the ground which was changed to good to soft during racing. This horse wants a sound surface so it was a good effort in the end. He was quite easy in the betting also so it was quite encouraging. His latest effort at Sandown can safely be ignored. He ran over 5f on soft ground and was last. That bumps his price up today and if the ground rides on the quicker side, he's got a big chance in my opinion. You can excuse his bad runs and he hasn't really had a recent effort where you can't find any reasons why he hasn't won or run well. A draw in 7 doesn't look bad and Willie Musson is in a bit better form than when this horse has been running this season. He had a poor July and August but his horses have shaped a bit better in the last fortnight or so, and hopefully he's coming into a bit of form. The ground is key and I just hope it isn't slow. If it isn't, this horse has a good chance.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September 0.5 e/w Roman Province 14.45 epsom 33/1 sportingbet i have just been matched @ 44 for 2 quid on betfair for Roman Province which i think is a massive price for a horse that has had 2 runs in this class and over this distance,a very good second in july only beaten a lenght by the evs fav and a 7th last time out but on the polytrack which it clearly didnt like,bottom weighted of the nine runner field with 3 of this field being 1st time out,back on turf today could run a big race

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September

Jockey George Baker is in fine form at the moment and looks to be hand picking most of his rides. Don't forget Mr Baker's ride in the last at Wolverhamton troops.

Jimmy, Dont know if you are aware but George Baker is a big lad and is restricted by his weight, think he does 9st3lbs normal weight. Hence he doesnt get to pick many spare rides up.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Wolv 7.40 - Cadmium loch - win at 5/1 bog Laddies Is running into form, getting closer to the winner in each of his 4 last runs Has won on the track, went off favourite for a similar race last time (finished 2nd) and must have a decent chance tonight of overcoming a wide draw Has enough stamina to come round the outside if necessary as he's won over a furlong further Both his wins have come over 7 furlongs so at first sight this drop in trip might be against him, but he's got the best recent speed fig and i reckon he'll be ok at 6 furlongs here.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Anything after 7pm will be on tomorrows figures:ok

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 8th of September Geez............I'm having a crisis of confidence with all these narrow losers............:wall