Golf: The Open 2011

[RussP]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Ok, here's my take on the Open. Going with just 1 outright but having a little bit on the 1st round leader market. M.Kaymer to win the Open, 2pts EW @ 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 7 places) Former World No 1 but has fallen off people's radar recently and I think the fact the pressure is off could well be a big positive this week. A major winner himself, he shouldn't struggle too much with nerves and it is reported he's striking the ball well. His form hasn't been up to that of a World No 1 but he's playing well enough to get involved. Finished 39th at the US Open but is coming into form with a good 4th at the recent Open de France which he would have won but for a poor 73 in his final round. A player I really admire, I fancy the German to go well this week. 1st round leader (all 1/4 odds, 5 places) B.Crane, 0.5pts EW @ 150/1 Bet365 JB.Holmes, 0.5pts EW @ 150/1 Skybet R.Allenby, 1pt EW @ 100/1 William Hill The first thing to say on all these players is that they all have the expected preferred afternoon tee time. If we assume that the forecasters have this right, then we can rule out half the field. Risky, I know, but with such a big field, it may be the right strategy. Then we're looking for players that can't win (ie, can't put together 4 solid rounds) but, on their day, can shoot low. Allenby generally has his best round in the Open on Thursday, his last 5 opening rounds being 69-70-69-73-69. Anyone shooting in the 60's will, I feel, be right in the mix so if he can replicate this form, he'll be up there. JB Holmes is another that usually starts well and has a couple of positives up his sleeves. Firstly, he hits the ball for miles which, provided he's straight, will be a big plus and, secondly, he's a birdie machine when in the groove, backed up by his rank of 10th on the US tour for par breakers. Ben Crane is the final selection and it's a speculative one as his form this term hasn't been great. However, last year he was 2nd for birdies on par 4's over in the US and is another I assocaite with hot streaks. Assuming the weather works in our favour, we're looking for any of the 3 to finish inside the top 5 for a tasty return.

[bookiebasher]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 After much thought and swapping and changing i finally decided on these 6 to make the cut...Robert Rock,Charl Schwartzel,Henrik Stenson,Steve Stricker,Reteif Goosen and Luke Donald at a tad just over 5/1 with Bet 365...the first 4 have nice afternoon tee offs so hopefully can post good scores to help see them through whilst the last 2 dont realy need any explanations...definatly swerving Nick Watney this time..now watch him go and win it..lol...Heres hoping for a great tournament and winners for everyone

[ELCAKER]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Various tickles for me... Brian Davis is back at his "home Open venue" - the Londoner finished 6th in 2003 and played better over the weekend than anyone else in the field. Backed him Top GB & I and Top Englishman at 45's and 30's repsectively with SJ Freddie Jacobson is another who played well in 2003 - recent winner on PGA Tour, the Swede hits it str8 off the tee, not afraid to go with 3 or 5 wood and putts aggressively, rarely leaving anything short. His Open record isnt gr8 in recent years but he's not been in anywhere near the form he is now. 4's for Top Swede and 11's for top Continental European. In the Top American market I have gone for Jeff Overton at 20's. Not sure any of the punters who played at John Deere have given themselves the best preparation. So ready to discount Stricker. Scottish Open became a totally different beast thanks to all the rain, and much much softer than RSG will be so Kuchar wont have learnt a lot from playing at Castle Stuart. Mickelson's record at Open isnt grt, Watney is definitely a danger and playing well and I might save on him, whilst Dustin isn't in grt nick. Overton hits it low, likes to play controlled punch shots and has a decent record in Open. Putts pretty well, I like his chances e/w.

[Psycho]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Lee Westwood for Top 5 finish. 3.75 @ Unibet 6 pts Westwood has got 6 Top 3 finishes in last 13 majors. He was tied 3rd in recent US Open. Masters did not work out as he blew it away in early going. He says he feels very confident about his chances, the form is great. Besides he's won as an amateur on Royal St Georges course back in 1992. Actually fancy him to win it. He's due one, but with McIlroy being in devastating form in US Open you just never know what Rory will do this time. Might be sensational again or go horribly wrong. Taking Westwood for Top 5 finish, just like I did in US Open.

[BillyHills]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 I see a few of you are having a stab at this 1st round leader lottery, well heres my thoughts; YE Yang, when he goes well he seems to be up with the leaders from the off, has been doing ok this year making 7 cuts and has 4 top ten finishes. The 90/1 at Stan James looks very tempting. 1st Round Leader YE Yang EW 90/1 Stan James

[owenclass]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Padraig Harrington first round leader 40/1 skybet Luke Donald first round leader 14/1 skybet Matt Kuchar first round leader 33/1 skybet these three players are playing great golf at the minute also they are used these testing conditions having played last week also harrington has won this before so loves this tournament

[impressivegol]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 i know some majors are different from others, but could someone clarify for The Open, what determines the cut line after round 2? thanks in advance

[AJ]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

Hi chaps..not a golf expert by any means' date='but a bet ive done for excitment in the last couple of majors is 5 players to make the cut in a acumalator with bet365...sadly for me i put Nick Watney in both of them and he was the only guy to miss out:cry...still waiting to make my choice for this open as i think the weather could be a big factor...just wondering who the golf experts on here would go for...obviously you can pick the top 5 in the betting but its hardly worth it so i always go for a few in the middle order...my 5 to follow later[/quote'] Wouldn't this fall under related contingency rules and be invalid as an accy? One player making the cut surely has an (small) impact on the probability of another doing so. Possible you may run into trouble with a bet like that. :unsure On topic, I've laid Rory, Luke and Lee. Can't remember the last time a brit won the once (Paul lawire 1999?), they all look a bit short to me, rory in particular.

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

Wouldn't this fall under related contingency rules and be invalid as an accy? One player making the cut surely has an (small) impact on the probability of another doing so. Possible you may run into trouble with a bet like that. :unsure On topic, I've laid Rory, Luke and Lee. Can't remember the last time a brit won the once (Paul lawire 1999?), they all look a bit short to me, rory in particular.

Bookies seem quite happy to take accys on this market AJ, No single player would be directly affected by another's performance bar a player leading by a large margin at halfway, this of course would certainly affect the cut line with the "within ten shots of the leader rule". I pointed this out to bookie basher in an earlier post, not sure if he read it, as it wasn't acknowledged

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

i know some majors are different from others' date=' but could someone clarify for The Open, what determines the cut line after round 2? thanks in advance[/quote'] dont quote me but i think its top 70 and ties, i am not sure if the 10 shot rule comes into play or not (that would be all players within 10 shots of the leader make the cut or top 70+ ties if total doesnt make 70)

[Woodie]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Yeah it's the top 70 players and whoever is on same score as the guy in 70th I believe.

[jackierubberleg]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

dont quote me but i think its top 70 and ties' date=' i am not sure if the 10 shot rule comes into play or not (that would be all players within 10 shots of the leader make the cut or top 70+ ties if total doesnt make 70)[/quote'] I think you are right Bowles, looks like it's top 70 plus ties.\the ten shot rule would appear to be for American majors.Apologies if I have mislead anyone.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Going to take a 3 ball bet for this afternoon. 3pts T.Lewis to beat H.Stenson & T.Watson 5/2 VC Match tees off at 14.32 BST. I think the amateur Tom Lewis is a bit overpriced here. Tom Watson rolled back the years in 2009 in this event when Cink could only deny him in the playoff that year but I think this course is playing pretty tough and I don't see him going so well this year. That makes this a match between Stenson and Lewis. Stenson is starting to come back into a bit of form but this tough test might come at the wrong time in his resurging confidence and I think he's well worth taking on here. Tom Lewis won the British boys championship on this course so he knows the course well and he could go fairly well this week. We've seen with Justin Rose and Chris Wood in the past that amateurs can go well in this tournament and this could just be another one to do just that. Although Stenson's record in this event is good his form for the last 12 months isn't as good so at 5/2 I'll take the amateur in what I see as effectively a two ball rather than a three ball.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Tom Lewis, thats a winner :ok

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

Going to take a 3 ball bet for this afternoon. 3pts T.Lewis to beat H.Stenson & T.Watson 5/2 VC Match tees off at 14.32 BST. I think the amateur Tom Lewis is a bit overpriced here. Tom Watson rolled back the years in 2009 in this event when Cink could only deny him in the playoff that year but I think this course is playing pretty tough and I don't see him going so well this year. That makes this a match between Stenson and Lewis. Stenson is starting to come back into a bit of form but this tough test might come at the wrong time in his resurging confidence and I think he's well worth taking on here. Tom Lewis won the British boys championship on this course so he knows the course well and he could go fairly well this week. We've seen with Justin Rose and Chris Wood in the past that amateurs can go well in this tournament and this could just be another one to do just that. Although Stenson's record in this event is good his form for the last 12 months isn't as good so at 5/2 I'll take the amateur in what I see as effectively a two ball rather than a three ball.

:clap Great call Kev some cracking stuff by the young 20yo lad and bet you he loved it playing along with Watson.

[Jenspm]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Funnily enough, Tom Lewis is named after Watson (which is probably why they were paired together). Great call kev :ok

[soundingstylish]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Kaymer/Mickelson/Oosthuizen - Martin Kaymer @ 13/10 - Totesport 2pts Kaymer had a really solid first round and gave himself so many birdie chances but the luck wasn't with him today in terms of his putts falling in. He hit 10/14 fairways and landed his ball 14 times on the greens in regulation. If he can carry this on tomorrow his luck will change and he will pick up some more shots. Mickelson and Oosthuizen's approach play didn't allow them to create themselves chances, although Louis putted extremely well this afternoon. Kaymer can make a real impression tomorrow in this 3-ball and in the competition overall. Louis finds himself fighting to stay in the Open, a dark contrast to last year's peformance. Khan/Hamilton/Marksaeng - Simon Khan @ 6/5 - Totesport 2pts Khan was another player that was hampered by his putting today. He, the same as Kaymer, found 14 greens in regulation but with a putts per round of 33 his putting really let him down. Hamilton's poor approach play gave him loads of hassle in terms of picking up shots instead he dropped a lot and finished 7 over without coming close to a birdie. Prayad only found 8 greens in regulation and then putted poorly to find himself fighting to stay in the tournament at 6 over. Hamilton and Marksaeng have to attack this course tomorrow which could end in tears as it can be nasty to you if you find the wrong lies.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 There is always a story and this year its Bjorn, having led the Open when last held here upt to the 16th hole on the last day, Bjorn found a greenside bunker at the short 16th and took a 5, he lost to Ben Curtis by 1 shot. He only got into the Open on Monday when Singh pulled out and today hits a 65 in possibly not the best of the conditions. Not sure what price he was but i expect around 250/1 or more for 1st rd leader even though it ended a dead heat with the young amateur (again another story!) Great golf by those 2 guys and more to come tomorrow when i expect some of the big guns to go under par to mount their challenge.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Ta. Was a nice round from the youngster. The 7.5pt gain means I'm basically freerolling with my outrights now which is a nice position to be in. Rock, Love III and Garcia are all in an ok position if they can break 70 tomorrow so hoping for some returns there.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 1pt ew M.Kaymer Second Round Leader 14/1 Stan James (1/4 1-4) I like Martin Kaymer here. He sits nicely in the large tie for 6th on two under after a round of golf which probably deserved more than the 68 he posted. He wasn't his best with the putter and whether that's a big thing or whether it was the greens getting a bit bobbly I'm not sure but we'll find out on Friday as he will have the greens in their best condition. He'll also have the weather at it's best too if the forecast is to be believed. It wasn't wrong on Thursday that's for sure. So I think someone who is out on Friday morning is likely to lead at the close of play here. That takes out Thomas Bjorn, Lucas Glover and Simon Dyson who are all right in the mix. Miguel Angel Jimenez is another it would rule out. I like Kaymer though. I think he's got a 65 or 66 in him somewhere, certainly if he repeats his ball striking of Thursday. With a bit more quality on the greens the USPGA champion could well be leading the field in a major again when we reach the halfway point.

[owenclass]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 i know i should have posted this selection but i thought it never come off so i went with my other three selections so he is my bet for my other first round selection http://easycaptures.com/6003590124 i got Thomas Bjorn at 100/1 so i got quite a bit of money i had a feeling he might do well having played the course before when he was runner up by the way what was the odds on Tom Lewis being first round leader i suppose it was bigger than 100/1 i was hearing some good things about him

[AJ]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

On topic, I've laid Rory, Luke and Lee. Can't remember the last time a brit won the once (Paul lawire 1999?), they all look a bit short to me, rory in particular.

Bad first rounds from all 3 of the British favourites , all have drifted badly so I've closed this position out for a profit. Easy peasy.

[Striker]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 My bets out of it already! But impressed by the americans Simpson and Stanley

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

Bad first rounds from all 3 of the British favourites , all have drifted badly so I've closed this position out for a profit. Easy peasy.

do you follow golf AJ, all 3 shot a 71 only +1, which is quite decent for an opening round at a major, all 3 could be in with a shout and if you call drifting badly 2 or 3 pts then so be it but they all stand their ground at the top of the betting yesterday didnt change too much to be honest

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011

My bets out of it already! But impressed by the americans Simpson and Stanley

I was so close to backing Stanley after his long putting performances last week in Silvis but didn't. He was 500's too :sad Thought you might have been on him this week actually.

[Striker]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 no mate..like to concentrate serious bets wise on american tour only..just had token interest on the Open

[sneej]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 Just wondering if someone could help, had an acca with 365 for several players to make the cut...one player was goosen who has now withdrawn, will it count as a void or loss? Would be a blessing if its void after yesterday's performance

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 One three ball bet for me today. 3pts R.Fowler to beat R.McIlroy & E.Els 13/5 Paddy Power Match tees off at 14.10 BST. The reputation of McIlroy has made Fowler an interesting and big price here. Fowler won this three ball yesterday albeit with a level par round of 70. The wind is getting up and I think we saw yesterday that Rickie Fowler has the game to cope in the stronger winds. He's very adept at hitting shots under the wind and with good effect too. Rory McIlroy had a shocking second round in tough conditions on an easier St Andrews course last year and while I don't expect him up in the 80's I do think he could struggle this afternoon especially if he lets one or two slip early and the pressure of the cut line comes around. Ernie Els is the third member of this three ball but he was so out of touch yesterday it was untrue and a 72 flattered him a lot. That's unlike Els on a links course but his game hasn't been it's usual strong self for a good while now. Fowler shot 70 yesterday but he was probably good value for a shot or two less than that but in these windy conditions I think he can post the best score of these three for the second successive day.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 I know I'm now pretty much relying on him but I think Charl Schwartzel looks a good bit of business at 14s right now. Conditions seem to be getting a bit tougher this afternoon and he probably wont be more than 2 or 3 shots off the lead and looks to be playing beautifully. If I didnt already have him in the portfolio, I'd be adding him in! GL :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Golf: The Open 2011 A bit unlucky with Kaymer Kev. Had a couple of putts which went pretty close today. Actually surprised by the scoring a bit here. Thought one of the morning players (Simpson, Kaymer, Glover) might get themselves a 2-3 shot lead, but it all seems to be coming back together. Agree with Hornet too that Schwartzel is sitting nicely. He's scrambling and putting well and has the confidence in the majors. 15s with Betfair a more than acceptable price.