BBOTD - Thurs 7th July

[fintron]

3.35 Newmarket (July) BURWAAZ ran a cracking race in the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) when unfavoured by the field split but finishing 1st in his mini group. He steps back up to 6f here but was only beaten by a nose on his previous try over this trip on debut in a Nottingham maiden (which was also on GF) and should be right up there at the finish now eased down from Group 2 into class 3 company. Burwaaz 5/6 Paddypower, 1 pt win

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 15:15 Folkestone Your Gifted - 1pt win @ sp Your Gifted won well at Haydock last time out and escapes a penalty from that run and looks good to complete the double shes way ahead of the field in ratings and back in similar company will take all the beating

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Newm 4.40 - Five Star Junior - ew at 9/1 BOG with Bet365 He's the only CD winner in the field and finished 2nd in this race last year off a pound higher mark. He's best at 6 furlongs on polytrack where he does most of his winning but on turf his wins have come at 5 furlongs on stiffish tracks on good to firm ground Ideal conditions in todays race and a good close up 3rd last time over 6 furlongs suggests he's running into form Linda Stubb's yard is firing at the moment with 3 winners in the last few days and Fallon gets the leg up

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July hadaj 6/1 william hill bog 1 point win 15.35 newmarket a cracking 6 furlong race with 4 of the 6 horses winning last time out,im going to side with hadaj who was impressive when winning a 15 runner course and distance contest on the same predicted ground 20 days ago

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Newm 2:25 - Mica Mika Very capable sort here with the added experience on Hanagan riding. I think the 3yo is very good value for the price atm after some narrow losses this year. Fahey's got a dismal record at the track, as has the jockey, but a place is achievable given that the gelding finished 2nd in a 49k race last month. He's dropping down 2f and I believe the experience of racing further will benefit the 3yo. Fahey has two in this race, so it's possible that his other runner may be acting as a pacemaker. 33/1 ew - Paddypower (bog)

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 1.20pm @ Newmarket 'Census' @ 9/4 (ladbrokes) - 2nd to Brown Panther looks streets ahead of anything achieved by the rest. I don't feel the need to expand, this wins, easy. 1 point win

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 2:25 Newmarket - Glencadam Gold - e/w @ 25/1 (WillHill) 19 runners go to post in this competitive handicap and whilst it's tough to oppose the Varian trained favourite, Glencadam Gold looks to be a nice horse in the making. It's not often that a Henry Cecil trained 3 year old with a profile like this fellows would be available at 25/1, but that's the score here. The general belief is that he will excel over staying trips and the 1m 2f trip that he faces today could be inadequate. The Newmarket July course is quite stamina testing though and it could be a sufficient test for him, assuming they go quick enough up front (which is very likely). He's got a nice cruising speed, a decent turn of foot and will enjoy conditions today, so the price looks all wrong. He does come with his quirks though and disappointed last time out, so 25/1 could look right after the race. I'd still take a chance on him grabbing one of the available 4 places and hopefully he'll go well. Last time out, at Royal Ascot, Glencadam Gold tackled the King Edward VII Stakes over 1m 4f. That's a Group 2 contest and it was run on softish ground, which he just didn't seem to move well on. The majority of the field pulled hard as the pace wasn't great early on. My selection for today's race was one of those to race keenly and ended up running a shocker, as he was virtually tailed off in the end. A couple of the field, who were miles ahead of them, re-oppose here but with quicker ground, a stronger gallop and a more suitable track, I'm fully expecting Cecil's charge to get a lot closer to them. It'd be very harsh to judge him on that effort alone and I'm convinced a big handicap awaits this horse, even though he has proved to be very awkward in the past. Previous to disappointing last time out, Glencadam Gold was improving with every run. He didn't make his 2 year old debut until October of last year and when he did, he put in a decent effort in a soft ground maiden over a mile at Nottingham. He was beaten 6 lengths by his stablemate but still managed to come home in 2nd. It wasn't a run that'd set the world alight but it took him a long time to hit top gear and it was fairly eye-catching considering it was his first outing. Next time out, on a sound surface at Redcar over a mile, Glencadam Gold made no mistake when sent off as an odds-on favourite in a 16-runner maiden. He didn't beat a whole pile but put in a workmanlike performance to score by an ever increasing 2¾ lengths. After the race, he was said to be a horse who'd improve for the experience and should make a good 3 year old. Glencadam Gold was put away after that and didn't comeback until April of this year. A competitive and traditionally useful handicap was assigned as his first task for the season, this time over 1m 2f at the Rowley course here in Newmarket. Tom Queally, who was on board for the first time, settled him towards the rear of the field and began to make headway a long journey from home. Once put into contention, the horse quickened very nicely to hit the front before getting found out by the uphill finish. It's possible that the lack of race fitness went against him but I think he was produced much too early anyways. He doesn't seem to like it when put into the lead and he was probably content to come home just a half-length behind the winner. It was a similar story next time out at Sandown. Glencadam Gold was slowly into stride and looked to have a huge task on his hands when turning for home, as the early pace wasn't great. However, he motored into contention once things quickened (relished the uphill finish) and was only let down by a combination of wandering around under pressure and holding his head high. He just didn't seem to want to go by the leaders but connections said he sulked with the first-time tongue-tie being on board. Whether that's the true reason or not is beyond me, but he really should of won that race, even though things probably weren't run to suit him. Dominant was the unlucky horse though, as he was unable to get a run before being hampered. He has since come out and won impressively, so the form looks more than decent. I don't think Cecil's horse is as good as that fellow, but Roger Varian's runner should be up to competing at a very high level. A few weeks later, Glencadam Gold was returned to Newmarket and tackled 1m 4f for the first time. There was only 5 runners lining up but it was a fairly competitive contest nonetheless. With the tongue-tie off, he made no mistake when asked to pick up proceedings and despite idling in-front (and holding his head high), he scored by an easy 2¼ lengths from a useful type in Hawaafez. Henry Cecil's charge traveled supremely throughout and once again, showed a nice turn of foot to put things to bed. Those two attributes give cause for optimism now that he's dropped back to 1m 2f and with a likely solid pace from the off, he should have things run to suit. It'll be no easy task to win this and despite being 6lbs higher than that win in May, I'd of thought 95 was a workable mark for him if one passes over his run last time out. Mijhaar was one of the horses who was mile ahead of him at Royal Ascot and looks exceptionally well-handicapped. However, if the rain doesn't come for him and the ground doesn't slow down, he may not have conditions to suit (has a high knee action). 5/2 in a field like this just isn't for me and I'd oppose him no matter how good I thought he is. He's a Group class horse running in a handicap off a mark of 96, so he's obviously going to be fancied, but there's plenty of useful types here. Seelo could be a nice horse too and shouldn't be 20/1, but he looks like one for races over further, as he seems to be paceless. He'll be one to keep a close eye on though, as there's potentially a lot more to come too. Loads more have claims but Glencadam Gold is overpriced for a yard in good form of late and he's a horse who has a lot more to come. He's awkward, possibly ungenuine and has plenty of quirks, but there's no doubting that the talent is there somewhere. This could be one of the first times that he'll have a race run to suit and 25/1 does look very big. If he came here on the back of that win here at the Rowley course, he would probably be around 10/1. There's plenty more to come from this fellow and if it all came together here, he could get involved. I'd like to see him produced quite late, as he's stopped when put into the lead or asked to go by in the past and that's not ideal. He's had 4 runs this year though, so he should have learned enough by this stage. I don't like quirky horses though, so it's a small-ish each-way bet for me. Hopefully he'll go well.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 2.25 Newmarket Club Oceanic win @ 9/1 Bet 365 Cheek pieces remain fitted today after seeming to work the oracle in his last two starts winning both at Goodwood. Faces a stiff task here taking on the favourite Mijhaar but looks a very progressive type and only goes up the 6lbs for the last win andlooks well handicapped to me. With the excellant Barzalona on board today the hat-trick could be on.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Minety Lass - Warwick 4.30 (0.5ew BOYLES 22-1 BOG) Having shown nothing in two runs as a 2YO, this filly changed hands over the winter and was then a shock 100-1 third over CD a couple of weeks ago. If she really has progressed over the winter then an opening mark of 66 might be workable. In any case, this filly would not be available at 22-1 on her handicap debut were it not for the fact that she comes from a completely unfashionable yard. Lucy Barry is on board, and she is obviously great value for her 7lb claim.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 2.25 Newmarket Fulgur was more than 4 lengths behind Mijhaar at Royal Ascot but gets a handy 7lbs pull for that. Both will be suited by the drop back in trip here but I feel that the Cumani horse is much better value. Although the Varian runner is probably still improving Fulgar has some course experience and this might just tip it. 1 Pt win 9/1 Hills

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 8:10 Cheers For Thea @ Doncaster - Had a great 2010 winning 4 times over 7 furlongs and 1 mile.Was unlucky at Beverley back in May when only beaten by half a length in what was the horses last appearance in this grade.Is coming down the weights again after running some poor races in higher class races and jockey Lance Betts claims 5lb which can see the horse go close 0.5pt E/W @ 16/1 Coral

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:35 Newmarket - Burwaaz - Back Looks to have an almighty chance here. He started his career nicely with a debut 2nd and he then built on that when winning lto. However, it was his 4th in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot lot that was his standout piece of form thus far. He was drawn on the wrong side but won his mini race on the stand side which was creditable in itself. Eased in grade from Group 2 to class 3 here, definitely the one to beat. Harbour watch won on debut and has to be respected but he'll have to improve significantly to beat Burwaaz here 1pt win @ 10/11 Paddy Power BOG

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 3.00 Newmarket Campanologist 8/1 Ladbrokes I really wanted to back something in the handicap before this race but I don't think the Roger Varian horse will get beat. The racing at Newmarket today is top notch. I also like Church Music and will be very interested to see how he gets on, after a very impressive debut but I have ended up going for an old favourite of mine in the Godolphin horse. I think his last run can be forgiven as he prefers quicker ground, even though he has won big races on soft ground in Germany. It is likely that these races are no way near as strong as group races in the UK. I am pretty sure Campanologist prefers it quick which is what he gets today. This half of Goldolphin is in better form now, operating at a 21% strike rate in the last 2 weeks while I have been on my hols! Campanologist will have needed the run first time out this season when 4th behind Dandino, and then he ran a cracker to get within 5 lengths of So You Think at the Curragh. Fair enough So You Think, won that very easily but Famous Name who was 3rd that day has come out and won a group 3 contest by 6 lengths. Last time out as I have already said was too soft for the horse so I am happy to ignore that run. He will give his true running today which I think, could be good enough. Redwood who is likely to go off favourite, may just need the run. Also favourites have a pretty poor record in the race in recent years. The other 2 worth considering are Crystal Capella and Laaheb. The Stoute horse did not impress me at all last time out, and usually goes well after a break so it was disappointing how poorly he ran. Probably not given the best of rides that day, but I think he is worth taking on. Laaheb is closely matched with my selection on this years form but I think he is worth taking on, even though the Roger Varian stable are in cracking form. Looking at the previous trends for the race, you are looking for a horse with form over the distance and a horse that is proven in group company. Few of these can be ruled out but Campanologist seems to fit most of the trends for the race. Much probably depends on how fit Redwood is, as his form behind Rewilding looks very strong now. I just think they are looking to get a run into the horse for bigger engagements later on in the season. Campanologist has every chance if showing his best form here. He has Barzalona doing the steering which can only be a positive. Campanologist has ran in this race before in 2009 where he was sent off 5/2 2nd favourite but finished 2nd last. That was a strange race however as the 2 favourites of the race filled the last 2 places. Last year they swerved the race in favour of a German group 1 race which he took quite easily. This year they are having another crack at the race, and I think he has every chance. Stable are in good form, he is proven over the distance, he is a proven performer at this level and he has the services of one of the best young jockeys around. :hope

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 3.45 Folkestone A field full of out of shape horses and that makes Kadouschki look a very big price, 4 maidens in the race and although Swordsman is well below last winning mark he hasnt shown anything recently. Kadouchski bounced back to form last few runs, all flat form has come on the AW but is a useful hurdler on his day off a mark just into the 100's which makes his flat mark look very lenient off just 56, up 3lb for latest 2nd but pulled well clear of a modest bunch. That was under todays inexperienced jockey who is still looking for her first win and she isnt gonna get many easier opportunities than this. 1pts win Kadouchski 2/1 betfred

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July IMO a Certain Mr Gosdon is always one to keep an eye on around this time of the season and because of that i will side with his first string in race 3 on the card at HQ. His bay colt has already won a race at HQ, that was back in Sep 2010 be it over the 8f and he's only had the one other race this year 2011 at York. He came home 3rd at York that was over 1m 2f but he was at the rear most of the race and made up good ground at the finish, i do have a wee concern about experience ''BUT'' Mr Gosdon can be some what of a master trainer in my world, he could be better than first thought and go in under the radar at a very nice price. HQ - 2:25 - RAIN MAC. 0.5 e/w bet 14/1 coral & Hills. Top days racing SO enjoy the ride.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 120 Newmarket: Census 1pt (5/2 Bet365) Cracking race here between three decent colts, Masked Marvel ran 8th in the Derby and got a rating of 109 for his efforts and is best on official figures. Solar Sky was second over 2m at Ascot but has had only 3 runs and looked a bit green when winning at Haydock and may need more cover than he will get today. Census was an eyecatching second to Brown Panther at the Royal meeting and if he had a clear run would have finished much closer, he looks progressive and Ryan Moore takes over from Richard Hughes and he has ridden the horse twice before and should be able to produce him late on and he promises to stay this extra trip and could even improve for it.

[Spooner]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Newmarket 14:25 - 0.5pts e/w Glencadam Gold 25/1 Bet365 Outclassed LTO when stepping into group company at Ascot, was progressing along nicely prior to that run taking a little handicap at HQ. Henry Cecil's horses are in decent form and I think this one will give a better showing today.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 20:10 Doncaster Christmas Light - A much improved run when 2nd LTO at 10F. Dropping 4lbs for this race and Eaves takes the saddle again. David O Meara yard in fair form. 0.5EW 8/1 P/P

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 9.15 Doncaster: Garstang 1pt win @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG Although horse hasn't won on turf for a while it's current mark is hard to ignore. HAs won from on turf from 67 and from 75 on the AW, albeit in 2006, however won from a mark of 70 at Lingfield of January this year. Reverts back to turf again today from a mark of only 57 and if able to reproduce anything like it's best recent polytrack form would be tough to beat. Stable amongst winners over last 14 days and have only sent two runners out today, both in this race. Must have a decent chance in quite an open looking affair.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 3.25 Warwick - 1pt e/w Star In Flight @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG Star In Flight has to give weight all round as the only 4yo in the field, but I'm not sure this is a great maiden, and can definitely have his say. He ran okay on debut when 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton. The 2nd and 4th have gone on to go quite well since - notably Loyalty - who is a useful all-weather handicapper now. He was entitled to need the run at Bath over 12f last time out, and travelled into the race quite nicely before just not managing to find a finishing kick to match the front 3. However, he ran to the line, and the first 4 were clear. I don't think it was a terrible maiden by any means, and it's not guaranteed that the track suited ideally. He drops down in trip today which might just allow him to finish with a bit more of a rattle. Brick Dust isn't 100% sure to stay to me, Canna looks very dodgy nowadays, and whilst may win, isn't a betting proposition. Mungo Park has an absence to overcome, and Lady Elsie is getting dangerously close to being exposed. I think he's got a solid e/w chance here under Darryl Holland - who is brilliant from the front - and might just use these tactics on Star In Flight. Brian Meehan is going well and hopefully this one will too.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 1pt win sorry, just copied across.

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Fury 4.05 Newmarket 1pt Win @ SP Kieren Fallon rates this as his Thursday banker and the odds suggest he won't be far wrong. Missed Ascot but reportedly flying now and ready to go. Looks to be on the brink of group 1/group 2 class so should have no issues in a class 3 race. Ground and trip fine, hard to oppose today.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July Mrs Greeley 3.55 Warwick. 0.5 points each way. Handles a bit of cut and has the ability & form to go close. Handicapper gives her a chance off a mark of 68 and she's also open to finding a little improvement. All in all should go very close. 4/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July MURURA 4.40 Newmarket. 0.5 points each way. Needs to show best, but the addition of blinkers and Mikael Barzalona can hopefully assure that. Needs to be on toes dropping in trip, but the ground should ensure that's it's not a quickly run race and that could benefit us. The price is there to take the chance. 20/1 Bet365 BOG

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July o.5pts eway murura 440 newmarket 16/1 PP only ran three times over this distance and his wins have come over 6f in ireland. however it is hoped the assitance of a good pace and the able jock mikael barzelona can enable him to strike from the front.

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July

o.5pts eway murura 440 newmarket 16/1 PP only ran three times over this distance and his wins have come over 6f in ireland. however it is hoped the assitance of a good pace and the able jock mikael barzelona can enable him to strike from the front.

yessssss !!!!!!!!!!!!

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July

Newm 4.40 - Five Star Junior - ew at 9/1 BOG with Bet365 He's the only CD winner in the field and finished 2nd in this race last year off a pound higher mark. He's best at 6 furlongs on polytrack where he does most of his winning but on turf his wins have come at 5 furlongs on stiffish tracks on good to firm ground Ideal conditions in todays race and a good close up 3rd last time over 6 furlongs suggests he's running into form Linda Stubb's yard is firing at the moment with 3 winners in the last few days and Fallon gets the leg up

One to look out for imo, softening ground probably didnt help and not given the best ride. Looking at the head on i think there might have been a gap but Fallon didnt really go for it.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Thurs 7th July 9.05 Epsom - Mary's Pet - 20/1 WH A few non runners in this race have changed the dynamics of it and there's a lack of pace on here with my selection seeming to be the most likely. She's at her best when dominating so gaining the lead here looks to be vital, if Simon Pearce doesnt make an effort to get the lead ill be disappointed. She's back down to her last winning mark when making all 3 starts ago. She had her first run on turf last time out and disappointed, she wasnt well away that day and was always in rear. She may not have been suited to the quick ground that day, her all weather exploits could mean she'll favour a softer turf surface which she'll get here.